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Tour of the Czech Republic Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 11-11-2016 20:48
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Tour of the Czech Republic
| Category: HC | 5 stages | terrain: hilly |  Czech Republic |
Closing out cycling in May the last tour of the month is the Tour of the Czech Republic. 24 teams will start on this exclusively hilly parcours through the Czech Republic. The individual stages offer some space for all kinds of hilly specialists, by given short (1-3) and endurance (5) stages as well as uphill (1-3) [steep uphill on stage 2] and downhill finishes (4-5) [steep downhill on stage 4].
After an easier first stage every stage should be pretty selective, especially with 4 and 5 inviting the riders to go for a long range attack. On paper this is a perfect design for an open race until the end with the queens stage to close the tour.
An interesting fact to this race is the amount of PT teams here. 12 teams from the higher divisions are here, making up for the majority of non hilly specialists. That might be the cause for the number of elite sprinters and TTists here that normally should have no advantages on a terrain like this, but restrictions and the nead to gain some experience for developement issues might lead them here.
In the past this race has seen several different routes and therefore different winners. While Reus (2012), Zabriskie (2013) & Bobridge (2014) are not here this time around, we have 2015 winner  Luis Leon Sanchez Gil starting here for Netia. He can also be counted to the favourites list, which will see a wide range of possible winners this year:
| Hil | Mon | Spr | Acc | Fl | Sta | Res | Rec |  Cesare Di Maggio | 82 | 65 | 64 | 75 | 65 | 73 | 68 | 65 |  Jay McCarthy | 81 | 67 | 63 | 74 | 70 | 80 | 75 | 70 |  Mohamed Shawal Anuar Aziz | 81 | 68 | 67 | 71 | 72 | 78 | 73 | 71 | | Tommy Zaini | 80 | 66 | 65 | 70 | 66 | 74 | 65 | 66 |  Pello Bilbao | 79 | 67 | 71 | 75 | 71 | 77 | 71 | 71 |  Damiano Cunego | 79 | 80 | 64 | 74 | 69 | 74 | 78 | 75 |  Kristian Dyrnes | 78 | 72 | 65 | 77 | 68 | 73 | 73 | 70 |  Pieter Serry | 78 | 75 | 62 | 69 | 68 | 71 | 70 | 69 |  Ian Boswell | 78 | 70 | 64 | 74 | 69 | 75 | 72 | 70 |  Maxime Monfort | 78 | 71 | 63 | 74 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 73 |  Travis Meyer | 78 | 69 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 74 | 71 | 67 | | Mikel Landa | 78 | 69 | 61 | 69 | 65 | 70 | 69 | 70 | | Jose Mendes | 78 | 68 | 68 | 65 | 69 | 72 | 68 | 67 |  Zico Waeytens | 78 | 71 | 66 | 73 | 70 | 72 | 70 | 68 | | Luis Leon Sanchez Gil | 78 | 76 | 60 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 77 | | Andrea Palini | 78 | 70 | 68 | 74 | 69 | 75 | 68 | 69 |  Joshua Edmondson | 78 | 69 | 70 | 76 | 70 | 75 | 72 | 67 |  Bruno Borges | 78 | 70 | 71 | 81 | 70 | 75 | 73 | 70 |  Jelle Vanendert | 78 | 72 | 56 | 72 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 74 |  Davide Villella | 77 | 64 | 65 | 80 | 72 | 72 | 74 | 67 | | Daniel Hoelgaard | 77 | 74 | 68 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 |  Esteban Chaves | 77 | 74 | 57 | 70 | 70 | 73 | 72 | 70 | | Eduard Beltran | 77 | 77 | 65 | 74 | 69 | 72 | 71 | 70 |  Petr Vakoc | 77 | 70 | 70 | 72 | 70 | 73 | 70 | 66 | | Tom Jelte Slagter | 77 | 78 | 61 | 71 | 68 | 71 | 73 | 74 | | Pablo Mudarra | 77 | 68 | 64 | 68 | 71 | 74 | 70 | 71 |  Alexey Tsatevich | 77 | 62 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 73 | 70 | | Luis Afonso | 77 | 66 | 57 | 70 | 68 | 75 | 73 | 70 |  Fabio Felline | 77 | 66 | 74 | 78 | 68 | 75 | 73 | 71 |  Frank Schleck | 77 | 74 | 55 | 69 | 66 | 72 | 71 | 66 | | Oleksandr Prevar | 77 | 71 | 67 | 73 | 72 | 77 | 70 | 68 | | Eduardo Zardini | 77 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 66 | 66 |
The best of chances for this race should go to a trio of favourites we always talk about when it comes to hilly races this season:
Di Maggio
McCarthy
Anuar Aziz
But all of the mentioned here should normally lack the top-notch back-up stats to rider consistent enough for a tour victory. Di Maggio has a superior hill stat but lacks everything else, while McCarthy and Anuar Aziz will surely get into trouble if the mountain stat matters at some point while having the right secondary stats for a long tour only based on hills.
So we most likely will have a pretty open race with others involved. #4 on the hill stats list, Zaini, shouldn't be the man though as he's only a luxury domestique for his Malaysian captain. His downhill stat should make him one of the top favourites for stage 4 though.
Thus we have to look deeper down the list and find former winner Luis Leon Sanchez. He carries everything needed with him for finishing at the top of the table; even having the confidence of knowing that he's able to win here on top. On his downside though is his significant disadvantage in terms of pure hills ability.
Pretty much the same goes for Damiano Cunego. He offers a superb mountain stat, which makes him a very interesting horse to bet on here. Surely the climbing stat will have minor influence on some stages, and if minor turns to major he might be the #1 favourite here. Add luluesque back-ups to that and we have a contender here.
The last >78 puncheur is Bilbao. He shouldn't contest for the win on normal days here cause he's lacking that X factor needed, but with consistent results a Top 5 overall is more than possible. On top he's got that sprinting ability and extra punch that makes him a good shout for a stage win.
Punchy sprint stage hunters:
Bilbao
Borges
Edmondson
Meyer
Felline
Tsatevich
Zardini
 Kadri
Rabon
Kreder
Gatto
Villella
Downhill finish stage hunters
Zaini
Slagter
Scarponi
 Wyss
Schachmann
One last word to the battle for white, this should be all about McCarthy. If he somehow manages to disappoint in a huge way or has to wear another jersey instead then it's all about an open battle between:
Borges
Edmondson
Waeytens
Boswell
Dyrnes
Villella
Hoelgaard
To close it out here is the final startlist to take a look at your team, pick a successful breakaway rider to bet on or find potential gems I missed for this.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 11-11-2016 20:52
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Let's see what Waeytens can do here, some points would be greatly appreciated 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 01:26
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| Shonak |
Posted on 11-11-2016 21:06
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Jelle could do a Top 10 in Gc if we get lucky but tough competition. BOTDs might be the best chance for some points here. Croatia on fire, thanks!
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 11-11-2016 21:53
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Cunego to dominate with Prevar and Scarponi on his side
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-11-2016 21:55
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Grand Tour Champion
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Obviously cheering for Lulu to repeat his overall victory from last season 
Thanks Croatia for taking on so many races right now
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 11-11-2016 22:55
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World Champion
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eBuddy's Tour of the Czech Republic line-up or, how I like to call it, the group of riders who missed out on the opportunity of being part of Gesink's Vuelta winning line-up.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 11-11-2016 23:36
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McCarthy the clear favourite here - although I think that Cunego could actually surprise everyone.
Decently strong squad we've sent here so much so that we could possibly wind up with three in the top 15, and the race is missing a lot of other top puncheurs so it's a great opportunity for the PCT teams here to get some points.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-11-2016 00:54
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Ranneries is Vesuvio's leader in a hilly race. 
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Roman |
Posted on 12-11-2016 03:12
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Welcome home, team.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 12-11-2016 07:01
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Top 5 goal in a race with no TT, what was I thinking?  At least Sanchez won last year so there's that but I've got to look out for Palini getting in his way too, can see this ending badly. although I've said that before most the races he's won.
I think Cunego will take this if Mo matters, otherwise McCarthy or maybe De Maggio.
Should be fun with all the PT teams here, and thanks Croatia for yet another nice preview.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| matt17br |
Posted on 12-11-2016 07:29
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Directeur Sportif
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Great preview, this could have been a decent race for us considering the not too good startlist, but in the end I have the feeling he would have been screwed up by the MO ratio.
LLS or Cunego to take this?
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 12-11-2016 08:07
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Grand Tour Champion
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Tsatevich got trained in offseason for races like this. Don't let me down kid. Prove you deserve more training in the next offseason.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 12-11-2016 09:33
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Small Tour Specialist
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Bilbao actually has a realistic shot at top 5 here. 
But again, hoping for a good team performance more than anything. Really need some good points again after some pretty dissapointing races since the last rankings update.
McCarthy as the winner here I feel would make most sense.
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| ember |
Posted on 12-11-2016 09:35
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Very excited for this race and to see Dyrnes and Hoelgaard lead the line. I have hopes of Dyrnes fighting for a top 10 overall, which would be a huge result. Hopefully we can also join a couple of breakaways, as I fancy one or two of the morning breakaways to go all the way, with such an exhausting race profile.
I do hope McCarthy proves to be the strongest here, as he's the only guy with 80+ in hills with solid other stats as well. After all it's supposed to be a hilly race
And that's a quality preview, Croatia14! |
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 12-11-2016 09:43
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Nice preview once again. Thanks for all the great work you put into the man-game the recent weeks, croatia!
Key race for us. Like Netia we're trying to achieve a top5 goal.
Hope Di Maggio kept his good shape from the Scandinavia Road Race to deliver. Why not even winning our first race this season?
Expect Anuar Aziz is the one to beat.
matt17br wrote:
Great preview, this could have been a decent race for us considering the not too good startlist, but in the end I have the feeling he would have been screwed up by the MO ratio.
LLS or Cunego to take this?
It's the same route as last year, so MO-value should be 0. 
Man, how on earth do you shake of the rest of us in mg-betting???
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| matt17br |
Posted on 12-11-2016 10:14
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I only bet on fairly sure events, like Bewley winning stuff or a break win in a stage less than 120 kms
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| tastasol |
Posted on 12-11-2016 14:46
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A pity that Juul-Jensen is just on the wrong side of the AVG limit. Would have been great to see him here. Meyer should be able to good though, hoping for a top 10. Had a great race here last season, so hope for another good one this time.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 12-11-2016 16:44
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Small Tour Specialist
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Curious to see what good old Monfort can still do here!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 13-11-2016 10:26
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Go Borges, do something, please
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| ember |
Posted on 13-11-2016 18:37
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Somwhat surprising to see how passive that stage was raced. 109 riders finishing in the peloton/first group on such a stage says it all. Good thing everyone got through without crashes.
Congratulations to Shonak, that's the perfect and a pretty surprising start. Looking forward for stage 2, which looks like the Queen stage with three steep hills in the final kilometers. Hoping for a good day for Dyrnes! |
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