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PCT predictions for lazy/busy wizards
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-10-2017 20:37
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World Champion
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Original idea from Croatia, for those of you with no time for shiny or detailed previews or focusing on CT or PT, but want to make a quicker prediction of team placings/with a bite of text, feel free to bomb this thread with predictions!
List of predictions:
Abhishek's rider ranking prediction
tastasol's "unsexy preview"
matt's prediction
Bushwackers' prediction
SN's "Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview"
Tamijo's "Tami's Mathestimat"
Marcovdw's "Overall ranking based on overall"
Abhishek's "We Love Support Stats" Prediction
Croatia's QCA Prediction
knockout's "I would simulate 500 seasons" Prediction
PCT Roundtable Analysis
Edited by matt17br on 25-10-2017 15:39
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 04-10-2017 16:56
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Classics Specialist
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Sorry for the unsexy preview  Haven't considered any race plans.
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1. Orange - Anything other than promotion have to be considered a disaster. 80+ riders in every main stat, and I really can't see any other team on the top of the rankings.
2. Berg - Silvestre, (Kupfernagel), Rui Costa, McEvoy, Vogt, Marquez, Nazaret. 10 74,5+ riders. The depth in this team in insane. Fiedler have obviously left the team, which seems like an smart decision considering the riders that have been brought in. Had a rather weak season last year, and the challenge is to plan the riders in a good way. While all the top riders are of top class, none of them are amongst the top 5 riders on their preferred terrain. Lack riders on the cobbles, and Vogt also failed to impress last year. He've been trained prior to this season, but should still struggle. Anyway a depth that should carry them a long way, similar to Hugo Boss last season.
3. Spar - Very unsure about where to put this team. While Denifl is probably one of the worst 84 Mo riders, he still scores good. In Daniel and Gueraro they have gotten another pair of leaders that should mean that they are competitive across pretty much every race day, but of course lacking a bit in the hills.
4. Newton - Van Garderen vs Boasson Hagen should be a great one to follow. While EBH is actually one a lower wage, I'd say Newton have used the remaining salary better than Grieg. Altur should be good on the cobbles, while Warbasse, Tsaetvich and a trained Fraile also should be able to score decent. Maksimov is, as always, a risk, and the team probably need him to deliver on a relatively regular basis to promote.
5. Fablok - Good depth in the leaders, with especially Mohs looking like the big sprinter in PCT. The support for Mohs is also brilliant. The big question will be how Roche and Froome can do. Good seasons last year, but more difficult this year, with both EBH and Van Garderen dropping down to PCT. While the depth in the sprints are extreme, the same can't be said about the other terrains. Need good performances from Roche and Froome.
6. Grieg - So you thought Amador in PCT was crazy? The entire season comes down to how Boasson Hagen will do. Wisniowski should be amongst the top cobblers, also with potential in the stage races with cobbles. Rowe is good on the cobbles and in the sprints, but a bit behind the absolute best. The depth behind EBH isn't the best either. And while the TTT set up is amongst the best in the division, they lack a top rider in the TT after the sale of Howson. Will have plenty of race days with a great amount of points, and many with a very low amount of points.
7. Meiji - Very close to promotion last season. Kinoshita had a great season then, but can't expect him to have such a good season this time around. Shikai have been trained, but with tougher competition for Kinoshita, Meiji will probably still be just outside promotion.
8. Ferrero - As usual, the depth is great. Henao is one of the top stage racers, and I really, really like Ignatiev. Modolo is also a very handy sprinter, if used right. Should enjoy a good first season in PCT.
9. Generali - Great depth across terrains after signing Roglic (and training him). Ulissi and Teunissen should both do good, but increased competition, especially for Ulissi. Had to sell Van Winden, but still the best TTT in PCT. Need Roglic to deliver from the start to really be able to challenge for promotion, but I'm struggling to see that he will be amongst the best stage racers this year.
10. UBS - The third team with one rider that really define them. The problem for me is that stage races make you more vulnerable, and while I believe Amador will have a great season, I'll doubt that it will be enough. The support is also great, but they do lack another leader than can score big. Schelling, Dillier and Reinhardt are all good riders, but not good enough to get promotion.
11. Indosat - A poor man's Amador in Intxausti, but the other leaders are a step up from UBS. Will be interesting to follow Goss back in PCT, with great support around him.
12. Eritrel - Very good depth in the mountains, where they have two of the top riders in Kudus and Berhane. Never been a big fan of Van Heerden, and while the depth is very good in the hills and pretty good on the cobbles, it's a clear lack of another leader in the team.
13. Netia - A transfer season where everything was about Kwiatkowski and Pedersen. The latter is on a huge wage considering his current abilities, and makes it rather impossible to challenge for promotion. A trained Kwiatkowski should be amongst the top, top riders in PCT this season.
14. Isostar - Another team with a young rider on a huge wage. Mohoric is obviously a much better rider than Pedersen atm, but a 600k wage for a 78 hill rider is of course big. Good riders for all terrains, but oter than Kump and partially Polanc, I can't see anyone scoring big.
15. Novatek - Holloway joins, and should be one of the best sprinters in the division. With Sibilla, Ford, Klemme and Duarte you have plenty of other leaders, but I do believe that they are a bit to one dimensional to really score big.
16. Kraftwerk - Good captains, and good depth. Flügel as the marquee signing, but can't expect him to have the same season as last year. Should stay away from the relegation battle though.
17. Minions - A couple of good leaders, where Uran should be enough to build a base thats enough to hold them away from relegation.
18. Podium Ambition - Great team on the cobbles. Good sprinters as well, but not any of the absolute best. Talansky should also score well, and combined they shouldn't really have any problem securing a spot in PCT for next season. Depending on the sprinters, they could be close to getting in amongst the top 10.
19. Ticos - Jesus Christ, what a team in the mountains. That's pretty much it though, and they lack a clear rider. Plenty of riders on huge wages also, considering similar riders. Could be a fight to survive.
20. Valio - Lo Cicero had a great season last year, but it will be a hard task repeating that. With Vastaranta now declining, Gautier is a good signing, but new good seasons from both to stay in PCT.
21. Lierse - Packed with talents, as usual. Vanbilsen should be amongst the top riders on the cobbles, but they are dependent on finding the right races for Van Asbroeck if they should survive. A trained Waeytens also give them another foot to stand on.
22. Compal - Dekker out, but he's not really been replaced. Choi and Ji are good riders, but a class behind the best in PCT. I like Meyer, but he's not good enough to secure their place in PCT. Jesse Sergent might very well be the key for survival. If planned good, they could manage it.
23. Haute Route-Mavic - Plenty of leaders, but not good enough to stay in PCT, I'm afraid. Pinot lacks a bit, and Keukeleire and Van der Sande have really tough competition. As a manager who've had Levarlet in the team, I don't think he will be good enough to get the wanted results.
24. Euskaltel - The division's best TT rider in Cornu, but he have never looked impressive in Euskaltel. The other leaders are not good enough to score big. Bouhanni did that last season, but he certainly can't be expected to repeat such a season?
25. MOL - Looks good at first glance, but the leaders are way to one dimensional.
26. Carlsberg - I do love Juul-Jensen, and Nolf should also be able to score good. Besides that, Contador and Garby aren't really at a level where they will do anything other than the occasional top 10, and the same goes for Appolonio.
Edited by tastasol on 04-10-2017 18:55
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 17:05
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Directeur Sportif
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Interesting preview, and completely different from my thoughts. You called it right: Who should score besides Kump? I have no answer for that, so I see us at least 5 places down the order. The other big surprises I detected in your ranking are Podium Ambition and Spar, which I'd have seen on very different spots.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 04-10-2017 17:08
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Classics Specialist
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Hehe, I had Spar in 11th place in my first draft, but they got closer and closer as the drafts developed. Vice Versa with Podium, who I had in 12th place in the first draft.
But I've to say, besides Orange, it looks very open for the top 10-15 spots.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 04-10-2017 17:25
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Interesting thoughts and thanks I guess for our highest predicted ranking. Froome will probably do all right, as last year not every race he took part in were to his liking and this year they are more. Roche will probably score about 200-300 points less than last year, which is fine for a declined rider. Mohs has a slight risk to him, since he has not been a leader on his team during the last PCM versions, so as a main sprinter I don't know where he stands.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 04-10-2017 18:04
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Team Leader
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Very interesting analysis, is a good first glance and I agree with your opinions a lot there, only really disagree on or two teams. 
Mid-pack is what I would predict for myself so glad you agree by placing us perfectly in the middle, the main problem for us however is that we're very reliant on a couple riders, which worked last season but is always a risk. And you're right, I'm paying Pedersen way too much but I don't care.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 18:45
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Unsurprising but always sad to see.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 04-10-2017 19:07
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
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1.  Orange Pro Cycling
2.  Newton Foundation
3.  Grieg - Eftel
4.  Ferrero - Samruk
5.  Generali - EDF
6.  Fablok - Bank BGZ
7.  Berg Cycles
8.  Valio - DeLaval
9.  Meiji - JR East
10.  Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
11.  Team UBS
12.  Isostar - Adriatic
13.  SPAR - Shimano - SCG
14.  Novatek-Panarmenian.net
15.  Podium Ambition
16.  Kraftwerk Man Machine
17.  Netia - Vónin
18.  Minions
19.  Haute Route - Mavic
20.  Euskaltel
21.  Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
22.  Carlsberg - Danske Bank
23.  Eritel - Sonatrach
24.  MOL-OMV Petrom
25.  Compal-Merida
26.  Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 04-10-2017 19:12
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Team Leader
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That sounds more like where we should be.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 21:09
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How on earth are we projeted 12th?  you know that most of my riders are highly overprojected due to missing fitting races...
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-10-2017 21:18
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World Champion
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2x 21, where do I sign?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 05-10-2017 02:49
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
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Here's another. I did spend quite a while coming up with a formula, but that doesn't mean its any good 
| 1 | Orange Pro Cycling | | 2 | Generali - EDF | | 3 | Meiji - JR East | | 4 | Compal-Merida | | 5 | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | 6 | Isostar - Adriatic | | 7 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 8 | Berg Cycles | | 9 | Team UBS | | 10 | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 11 | MOL - OMV Petrom | | 12 | Podium Ambition | | 13 | Euskaltel | | 14 | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | 15 | Newton Foundation | | 16 | Grieg - Eftel | | 17 | Ferrero - Samruk | | 18 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 19 | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | 20 | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 21 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 22 | Minions | | 23 | Valio - DeLaval | | 24 | Netia - Vónin | | 25 | Haute Route - Mavic | | 26 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam |
Edited by Bushwackers on 05-10-2017 13:43
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 03:12
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World Champion
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Dont see us finishing 3rd, so perhaps the formula needs a bit of work But wouldn't mind if it came true! I think Grieg will be higher than that thanks to EBH alone tho.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 05-10-2017 05:26
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You also have Indosat twice
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 05-10-2017 06:09
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Team Leader
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Formulas still hate us but at least we're third last this year instead of second last.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 06:55
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I think we are the ones projected to finish 20th
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-10-2017 12:37
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Croatia14 wrote:
How on earth are we projeted 12th? you know that most of my riders are highly overprojected due to missing fitting races...
You're really underestimating your team.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-10-2017 13:00
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World Champion
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Darn it Bushwackers, how on earth did we rank last? I mean, we'll probably end up close to the last spot, but totally last?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 05-10-2017 13:50
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Sprinter
Posts: 1907
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Chill out guys I'm not claiming to be Nostradamus. I just made a formula that I thought made some sense (which it seems it doesn't), did a little eyeballing, and gave a prediction. I did not put any personal bias into this, so don't take anything personally.
I don't think its right either, and Ollfardh in my heart I don't think you'll end up last
Fixed the Indostat btw
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-10-2017 13:58
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World Champion
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Yay
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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