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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2017
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 05-10-2017 23:46
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How does it work?
The OVL calculations for all riders are formula based, using a rating for each rider for the categories of 'Puncheur', Stage Races', 'Sprinter', 'Time Trial', 'Cobbles' and 'Climber'.
Based on these formulas, I've calculated a category rating for each team, based on their best 3 riders for each category. A rider can only be ranked 1st, or 2nd, for his team in one category - with the exception of Sprint and Cobbles.
This results in a team division rank for each category (shown below) alongside a team category rating. I've experimented with a few methods, based on the ranks and the ratings, to predict the overall CT standings.
Puncheur
| 1 |  | Grieg - Eftel | : | Hagen | Watson | Skjerping | | 2 |  | Newton Foundation | : | Van Garderen | Tsatevich | Acevedo | | 3 |  | Meiji - JR East | : | Kinoshita | Zaini | Hatanaka | | 4 |  | Fablok - Bank BGZ | : | Froome | Roche | Poljanski | | 5 |  | MOL - OMV Petrom | : | Di Maggio | Barrio | Serry | | 6 |  | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Flügel | Mehr-Wenige | Kreder | | 7 |  | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Schreurs | Edet | Sicard | | 8 |  | Berg Cycles | : | Costa | Vogt | Paulinho | | 9 |  | Generali - EDF | : | Ulissi | Roglič | Lavery | | 10 |  | Minions | : | Betancourt | Selander | Milan |
Spoiler 11  Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
12 Valio - DeLaval
13 Netia - Vónin
14 Isostar - Adriatic
15 Euskaltel
16 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
17 Ferrero - Samruk
18 Carlsberg - Danske bank
19 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
20 Team UBS
21 Compal-Merida
22 SPAR - Shimano - SCG
23 Haute Route - Mavic
24 Podium Ambition
25 Eritel - Sonatrach
26 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
Stage Races
| 1 |  | Team UBS | : | Amador | Schelling | Ivars | | 2 | | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Sicard | Quintana | Geniez | | 3 | | Minions | : | Úran | Martinez | Haga | | 4 |  | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | : | Intxausti | Brenes | Signorini | | 5 |  | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | : | Denifl | Rodrigues | Moazemi | | 6 |  | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Kudus | Berhane | Teklehaimanot | | 7 |  | Compal-Merida | : | Choi | Ji | Kozhatayev | | 8 | | Meiji - JR East | : | Shikai | Iino | Gilanipoor | | 9 |  | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Brajkovic | Brändle | Potocki | | 10 |  | Ferrero - Samruk | : | Henao Montoya | Kolesnikov | Krizek |
Spoiler 11 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
12 Berg Cycles
13 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
14 Newton Foundation
15 MOL - OMV Petrom
16 Kraftwerk Man Machine
17 Generali - EDF
18 Carlsberg - Danske bank
19 Euskaltel
20 Podium Ambition
21 Netia - Vónin
22 Fablok - Bank BGZ
23 Haute Route - Mavic
24 Valio - DeLaval
25 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
26 Grieg - Eftel
Sprinter
| 1 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | : | Mohs | Guardini | Stepniak | | 2 |  | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Holloway | Serebriakov | Trusov | | 3 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Cavendish | Kreder | Maikin | | 4 | | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Kennaugh | Cisse | Brambilla | | 5 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | : | Goss | Moser | Colbrelli | | 6 | | Berg Cycles | : | Silvestre | Kupfernagel | Santos | | 7 |  | Podium Ambition | : | Ewan | Nelson | Docker | | 8 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Kump | Mansilla | Giaux | | 9 |  | Valio - DeLaval | : | Lo Cicero | Manninen | Vinther | | 10 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | : | Van Asbroeck | Pelucchi | Peeters |
Spoiler 11 Grieg - Eftel
12 Haute Route - Mavic
13 Meiji - JR East
14 Eritel - Sonatrach
15 Ferrero - Samruk
16 SPAR - Shimano - SCG
17 Compal-Merida
18 Carlsberg - Danske bank
19 Netia - Vónin
20 Team UBS
21 Newton Foundation
22 Euskaltel
23 MOL - OMV Petrom
24 Minions
25 Generali - EDF
26 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
Time Trial
| 1 | | Ferrero - Samruk | : | Ignatiev | Ignatiev | Kolesnikov | | 2 | | Valio - DeLaval | : | Paillot | Pökälä | Samoilev | | 3 |  | Euskaltel | : | Cornu | Van den Broeck | Terpstra | | 4 | | Compal-Merida | : | Sergent | Li | Fominykh | | 5 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Brändle | Navardauskas | Bazhkou | | 6 | | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Viennet | Andersen | Sicard | | 7 | | Team UBS | : | Dillier | Ivars | Amador | | 8 | | Generali - EDF | : | Viviani | Boaro | Sterbini | | 9 | | Newton Foundation | : | Fraile | Verona | Abreu | | 10 | | Grieg - Eftel | : | Dempster | Atkins | Sterobo |
Spoiler 11 MOL - OMV Petrom
12 Berg Cycles
13 Meiji - JR East
14 Minions
15 Carlsberg - Danske bank
16 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
17 Fablok - Bank BGZ
18 Eritel - Sonatrach
19 Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
20 Haute Route - Mavic
21 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
22 Kraftwerk Man Machine
23 SPAR - Shimano - SCG
24 Netia - Vónin
25 Podium Ambition
26 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Cobbles
| 1 | | Podium Ambition | : | Burghardt | Thomas | Hristov | | 2 | | Generali - EDF | : | Teunissen | Theuns | Taillefour | | 3 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | : | Vanbilsen | Van Asbroeck | Joseph | | 4 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | : | Daniel | Nepomnyachsniy | Bohli | | 5 | | Grieg - Eftel | : | Wisniowski | Rowe | Laengen | | 6 | | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Kamyshev | Puccio | Tronet | | 7 | | Newton Foundation | : | Altur | Domene | Tsatevich | | 8 |  | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Nolf | Breschel | Østergaard | | 9 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Polanc | Kump | Giaux | | 10 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Sibilla | Vermote | Eeckhout |
Spoiler 11 Minions
12 Eritel - Sonatrach
13 Haute Route - Mavic
14 MOL - OMV Petrom
15 Kraftwerk Man Machine
16 Valio - DeLaval
17 Team UBS
18 Euskaltel
19 Netia - Vónin
20 Ferrero - Samruk
21 Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
22 Compal-Merida
23 Fablok - Bank BGZ
24 Berg Cycles
25 Meiji - JR East
26 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
Climber
| 1 | | Orange Pro Cycling | : | Quintana | Sicard | Di Gregorio | | 2 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Berhane | Kudus | Teklehaimanot | | 3 | | Team UBS | : | Schelling | Amador | Saggiorato | | 4 | | Berg Cycles | : | Nazaret | Marquez | Chiarello | | 5 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | : | Rodrigues | Denifl | Jang | | 6 | | Compal-Merida | : | Ji | Choi | Kozhatayev | | 7 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | : | Brenes | Signorini | Intxausti | | 8 | | Ferrero - Samruk | : | Kolesnikov | Henao Montoya | Maillet | | 9 |  | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | : | Costagli | Chamorro | Barguil | | 10 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Garby | Contador | Lundberg |
Spoiler 11 MOL - OMV Petrom
12 Minions
13 Haute Route - Mavic
14 Meiji - JR East
15 Isostar - Adriatic
16 Kraftwerk Man Machine
17 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
18 Fablok - Bank BGZ
19 Newton Foundation
20 Euskaltel
21 Podium Ambition
22 Valio - DeLaval
23 Netia - Vónin
24 Generali - EDF
25 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
26 Grieg - Eftel
Summary
We have to start with Orange, who top the bill in the Climber standings, but are not outside the Top 7 in all categories. Sicard and Quintana may be their strength in the climbs, but they have leaders in all terrains.
Some other category winners are not so consistent across other terrains, and will suffer for that in the divisional predictions. Fablok top the sprinters rank, but are otherwise weak except in hills. Podium Ambition lead in cobbles, but sprint is their only other calling card. Ferrero, top in time trials, and Grieg, top in hills with Hagen, fare better in other categories - although the latter are rock bottom for the most mountain influenced categories. UBS have Amador to thank for topping stage races, they have 3 good and 3 weaker categories.
In terms of consistency, the next best from Orange are Isostar, placing Top 15 across the board. The next with the lowest maximum rank are Novatek and Carlsberg with 17th and 18th - but they do have a few ranks on or close to that max. All other teams are 20th or higher at least once. Berg and Meiji are worth a mention though, as cobbles is the their only weakest category - being in the Top 12 or Top 14 otherwise.
Looking at highest minimum, two teams fail to break any Top 10s: Haute Route and Netia. And of those not already mentioned, I should probably mention Spar, with three Top 5 ranks.
| Berg Cycles | 8 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 24 | 4 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | 18 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 10 | | Compal-Merida | 21 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 22 | 6 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | 25 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 12 | 2 | | Euskaltel | 15 | 19 | 22 | 3 | 18 | 20 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 4 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 18 | | Ferrero - Samruk | 17 | 10 | 15 | 1 | 20 | 8 | | Generali - EDF | 9 | 17 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 24 | | Grieg - Eftel | 1 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 26 |  | Haute Route - Mavic | 23 | 23 | 12 | 20 | 13 | 13 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 11 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 7 | | Isostar - Adriatic | 14 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 15 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 6 | 16 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 16 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 19 | 25 | 10 | 26 | 3 | 25 | | Meiji - JR East | 3 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 25 | 14 | | Minions | 10 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 12 | | MOL - OMV Petrom | 5 | 15 | 23 | 11 | 14 | 11 |  | Netia - Vónin | 13 | 21 | 19 | 24 | 19 | 23 | | Newton Foundation | 2 | 14 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 19 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | 16 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 17 | | Orange Pro Cycling | 7 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 | | Podium Ambition | 24 | 20 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 21 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | 22 | 5 | 16 | 23 | 4 | 5 | | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | 26 | 11 | 26 | 21 | 26 | 9 | | Team UBS | 20 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 3 | | Valio - DeLaval | 12 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 16 | 22 |
Bringing it together
The next stage is bringing all of the above into a divisional standing prediction. Five different rankings have been produced here, the first two come from the ranking positions, the other 3 use the team category scores themselves - sometimes adjusted, sometimes weighted.
And the average of these produces my Slightly Mathematical PCT division prediction:
| 1 | | Orange Pro Cycling | | | 2 | | Team UBS | | | 3 | | Berg Cycles | | | 4 | | Isostar - Adriatic | | | 5 | | Newton Foundation | | | 6 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | | | 7 | | Meiji - JR East | | | 8 | | Grieg - Eftel | | | 9 | | Minions | | | 10 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | | 11 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | | | 12 | | Ferrero - Samruk | | | 13 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | | 14 | | Compal-Merida | | | 15 | | MOL - OMV Petrom | | | 16 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | | 17 | | Generali - EDF | | | 18 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | | | 19 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | | 20 | | Podium Ambition | | | 21 | | Valio - DeLaval | | | 22 | | Euskaltel | | | 23 | | Haute Route - Mavic | | | 24 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | | 25 | | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | | 26 | | Netia - Vónin | |
I can't say I am entirely convinced by some of the placings, but that's what the formulas have given, so there we go!
A breakdown of each five predictions is shown below. No doubts as to Orange, but much more variety behind them - compared to the CT predictions. Four different teams in 2nd, with 8 different teams featuring in the Top 5 across predictions. Meanwhile, a wide range of predictions for Grieg, Ferraro and Berg.
More consistency in the relegation predictions. Netia were predicted to relegate last year, clearly didn't, but the formulas are in for another attempt. Ticos and Haute Route were the last two CT teams to promote, and impress the least of those promoting teams here, while Lierse and Euskaltel look under threat for maintaining their PCT status.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | P | | 1 | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | 3 | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | | | 6 | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | 9 | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | 11 | | | | | | | | 12 | | | | | | | | 13 | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | 15 | | | | | | | | 16 | | | | | | | | 17 | | | | | | | | 18 | | | | | | | | 19 | | | | | | | | 20 | | | | | | | | 21 | | | | | | | | 22 | | | | | | | | 23 | | | | | | | | 24 | | | | | | | | 25 | | | | | | | | 26 | | | | | | |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 23:56
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Tour de France Champion
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It's partially encouraging, but unfortunately I don't see us actually having the 10th best climbing team out there points wise. So I think we drop quite a few spots with that.
If we finished 18th I'd throw several parties though. Always cool to see the mathematical side of things! Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 06-10-2017 00:20
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Sprinter
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This is awesome! Never thought I'd be predicted as 2nd. I do hope that Reichenbach and Reinhardt can perform better than 20th in the hills/sprints since Reinhardt especially I think can win occasional races this year (based on last year).
Here's how far off this prediction is on average compared to the quick ones in the other thread (if anyone wants a useless fact  )
tatasol: 4.46
Matt: 5.92
mine: 6.31
Tatasol and SN actually exactly agreed on positions quite a few times.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 06-10-2017 00:23
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Small Tour Specialist
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Excellent work as always SN, and not too many head-scratchers emerge from this for me. My PCT preview will have a lot of similarity with these outcomes, particularly in the general population of the bottom half, more shuffling of the deck top half.
As far as I can see it seems the combination of PTHC and HC bands makes it pretty much impossible to cover up weakneses, or the flip side strength on multiple terrains. Perhaps on cobbles is 'easiest' to avoid, but PCT teams are stuck with lots of RD's spread across the other terrains. As some teams are so weak in cobbles, gives those who have that as a focus opportunities to score deep with multiple riders to 'make-up' for the slightly less RD's avaialable on that terrain.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 06-10-2017 05:31
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Coming out of the transfer window I was indeed fearful of relegation. But following planning and knowing where my leaders are going to be, I think my team will be able to fight for a lower-mid table spot but if we have to get involved in the relegation dog fight then we'll do so!
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 06-10-2017 06:28
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As we get better we seem to move down, does that mean we can challenge for promotion this year? 
Is an interesting preview of the other 25 teams at least. I like Isostar but don't think they'll manage automatic promotion, Mol and Compal seem quite high as well, while Fablok is very low down as a team that could contest promotion.
Still, thanks for the stats, interesting breakdown either way. 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 07:07
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Directeur Sportif
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Hahaha no. Top10 in Stage Racing and Sprint? You have to be kidding me  A team with no real sprinter aged of Lo Ciceros team? A team with only Brajkovic as scoring stage racer ahead of f.e. Ticos with their brilliant depth there? And ahead of Ferrari with a Top 3 stage racer and one of the most amazing upside riders? I can't share that optimism sadly :/
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 00:55
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| roturn |
Posted on 06-10-2017 07:19
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Only now realized Ferrero got Henao Montoya and Ignatiev. This is incredibly good for a PCT team adding to an already decent depth.
Hence I could imagine them making another promotion if well planned as I think both can score more than the actual stats show.
But in total the PCT is one hell of a division and the depth in all terrains is awesome.
Will be interesting to see how UBS and Meiji do after relegating and then "surprisingly" not promotion immediately again.
Guess nothing Orange must be afraid of but Grieg very well could end like.
Thanks for this nice preview, SN. Lots of nice formulas and data to play around with. |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 06-10-2017 09:02
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Tour de France Champion
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This prediction i knew wasn't going to be kind to us at Podium Ambition, but for the most part it does have us clear of relegation which is the key part. Our lack of depth in various terrains stands out, but that's intentional. I've placed the teams focus on the cobbles, where we're top of the division, and on the sprinters, where we're Top10 in a close field. Lacking behind that but in Talaksny i strongly believe we have a consistent scorer for stage racing, and i'm convinced Yates will impress a lot of people in the hills.
But outside relegation is what i'm taking from this and will keep me happy ahead of next year with a more developed team.
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| jaxika |
Posted on 06-10-2017 09:20
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Sadly, i see our team too high, but may the prophete speak from you  |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 06-10-2017 09:26
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Can't say I'm surprised by this, it will no doubt be a tough season for us.
Podium Ambition is just like last year Strava + Summerhill combined. But we'd love tough races, so that's good for us.
We've lost some places in the sprint section (which is insane this year), but advanced a bit on hills, so we'll see I guess.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 06-10-2017 09:50
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Grand Tour Champion
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No way we'll finish ninth, I'll present a television show in my underwear if we do
Shocking to see our sprint train so low in the ratings. I knew it isn't the best but 24th out of 26? Good to see we're top ten in both stage racing and puncheurs, which are the areas we focussed on most.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 06-10-2017 10:02
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Marcovdw wrote:
No way we'll finish ninth, I'll present a television show in my underwear if we do
Didn't we have a thread for these things?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 06-10-2017 11:25
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I don't think the formula is quite fair to us, especially the hilly ranking punishes us hard for not having a real back-up leader. Guess time will tell.
If we relegate so be it - that will be much better for us and Finnish cycling than promoting at least
Positively surprised by the fact that apparently four teams have a worse climber-setup than us
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| Bikex |
Posted on 06-10-2017 11:47
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Rodrigues being rated as the stronger climber must be a punch in the face for Denifl.
Surprisingly, despite not overrating Denifl I still finish 6th here which is kind of surprising especially since your formulas were quite reliable in the past. I don't think I'll finish that high up, also because of some unfortunate planning with my (PT)HC bands and due to my many riders I have to level up. But it's great to see all previews rank us far away from the relegation zone. This season should become less worrying than the past two. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 06-10-2017 12:06
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Bikex wrote:
Rodrigues being rated as the stronger climber must be a punch in the face for Denifl.
Well Denifl was only allowed to be ranked 1st in your team in one category!
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| Bikex |
Posted on 06-10-2017 13:01
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SportingNonsense wrote:
Bikex wrote:
Rodrigues being rated as the stronger climber must be a punch in the face for Denifl.
Well Denifl was only allowed to be ranked 1st in your team in one category!
Misinterpreted your post then. I thought a rider could only be 1st or 2nd in exactly one category, not that he can be 1st and 2nd in two different. Assumed climber must be an exception. Thanks for clearing that up. |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 06-10-2017 13:19
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Small Tour Specialist
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Love the analysis.
Based on this it looks like Ruby the Cat will really have earn't her cream if Kraftwerk manage to pull off our top 10 goal!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 06-10-2017 16:22
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This prediction was somehow the most accurate for PCT last season, but I kinda have the feeling that the same won't happen this time around A bit too many things just seem a bit off with how the formulas are interpreting the db this year and of course I'm not just talking about my team
As always it's really lovely to look at all those tables though, really helps you understand how each team looks like as a whole as well as their focus.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 18:44
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roturn wrote:
Will be interesting to see how UBS and Meiji do after relegating and then "surprisingly" not promotion immediately again.
For us I think it was a little surprising to most not to promote last season. I myself wasn't too sure if I would or not. If I had kept Bennati and Appolonio which I could have wage wise, I likely would have (although then I couldn't have trained Shikai to 80MO, only 79MO iirc) For myself I wasn't really expecting to, nor was it the be all and end all.
This season I definitely think I have even worse odds of promoting, so it will be interesting to see how things play out. Finishing 7th would definitely be nice though, but I think my sprint and cobble depth is too low.
Thanks a lot SN for this preview!
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
