This is my noob estimate, points are scored in 8 categories: Stage Racer, Climber, Hilly Climber, Puncher/Sprinter, Tempo Rider, Sprinter, Fighter and Cobbler, but weighted differently. Besides that the team is also scoring based on the overall of all riders,
In all catagories (based on stupid and hopelessly long formulas) 40 riders score points from 40 – 1, the same team can have more than one rider in same category but the 2nd will be reduced with a small factor, the 3rd even more, based on the assumption that they sometimes will be acting as an addition to the leader, rather that score points on their own.
The downside to this method is that the same rider can score in many categories, but haven’t got unlimited race days. Hope that is balanced by the fact that such rider must be rather dangerous, and I am evaluation rather deep into the squads.
To show the most valuable rider based on this method, my formula comes up with this amount of “Tamipoints” for the top 25 scoring riders:
Sicard
Orange Pro Cycling
340,6
Amador
Team UBS
331,8
Úran
Minions
329,0
Kump
Isostar - Adriatic
316,5
Ignatiev
Ferrero - Samruk
309,8
Intxausti
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
287,0
Van Garderen
Newton Foundation
275,5
Hagen
Grieg - Eftel
269,5
Van Asbroeck
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
250,0
Denifl
SPAR - Shimano - SCG
240,0
Kwiatkowski
Netia - Vónin
240,0
Henao Montoya
Ferrero - Samruk
237,0
Marquez
Berg Cycles
230,0
Ulissi
Generali - EDF
227,6
Kudus
Eritel - Sonatrach
219,0
Tsatevich
Newton Foundation
214,4
Roglič
Generali - EDF
213,4
Modolo
Ferrero - Samruk
212,4
Theuns
Generali - EDF
195,5
Duarte
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
193,0
Choi
Compal-Merida
191,0
Kinoshita
Meiji - JR East
190,5
Barguil
Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
190,2
Talansky
Podium Ambition
179,7
Schreurs
Orange Pro Cycling
179,0
Out of the about 570 riders in PCT, this system involved 245 riders in the final result, to get a picture in this, just a brief look at the 10 riders scoring the smallest amount of points, but affecting the final result.:
Rabon
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
2,7
Sebright
Newton Foundation
2,5
Saggiorato
Team UBS
2,4
Iino
Meiji - JR East
2,4
Gilanipoor
Meiji - JR East
2,4
Hiratsuka
Meiji - JR East
2,4
Hirschlein
Kraftwerk Man Machine
2,4
Potocki
Isostar - Adriatic
2,4
Colbrelli
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
2,4
Gavazzi
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
2,3
Reckweg
Netia - Vónin
1,2
Well can’t hide it any longer, this is my preview combined result of the 2017 PCT season.
For those not making it within regulation limits, there are many sources of comfort. The most important is off course that the AI in hopeless and I have no idea of what in taking about.
Rank
Team
Tamipoints
1
Orange Pro Cycling
1436,8
2
Newton Foundation
1315,7
3
Generali - EDF
1260,9
4
Ferrero - Samruk
1228,4
5
Berg Cycles
1213,4
6
Isostar - Adriatic
1068,0
7
Eritel - Sonatrach
1060,4
8
Podium Ambition
1024,6
9
Team UBS
1011,1
10
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
913,5
11
Minions
910,6
12
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
870,2
13
Meiji - JR East
867,0
14
Grieg - Eftel
796,5
15
Fablok - Bank BGZ
796,1
16
Compal-Merida
789,5
17
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
768,6
18
MOL - OMV Petrom
701,0
19
Kraftwerk Man Machine
625,7
20
SPAR - Shimano - SCG
604,4
21
Euskaltel
604,2
22
Haute Route - Mavic
558,9
23
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
536,2
24
Valio - DeLaval
509,7
25
Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
503,3
26
Netia - Vónin
433,7
Note: Sometimes I’m very surprised about this myself and wonder if it’s totally off, but other results seems very logical, anyway won’t mingle with what the math came up with.
I don't know too much of PCT to say whether i believe your predictions is accurated, but i find really interesting the "Tamipoints". Really hope to see this in CT to understand better how your formulas work
I obviously am very pleased with Generali in 3rd but I'm skeptical about it - really seems like Theuns got overrated by the formula a bit to name one of the oddities
Still not bad results at all for this to be 100% math based!
Aquarius97 wrote:
I don't know too much of PCT to say whether i believe your predictions is accurated, but i find really interesting the "Tamipoints". Really hope to see this in CT to understand better how your formulas work
Not sure if I will make a CT version. There is so many fine already made.
Thanks for the prediction! Seems like you've got us pegged where a lot of the other predictions did (back of the top-10), so I'm starting to expect to finish there now.
A little bit disappointed that Amador is ranked behind Sicard though. I guess we'll for sure when the racing starts.
Very interesting preview Tamijo, good work! I like the idea of the Tamipoints and to be honest apart from some outliers (and it could be you got them right ) it seems to be in line with the average. Certainly a lot of stats to break down and really cool analysis!
Aquarius97 wrote:
I don't know too much of PCT to say whether i believe your predictions is accurated, but i find really interesting the "Tamipoints". Really hope to see this in CT to understand better how your formulas work
Not sure if I will make a CT version. There is so many fine already made.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Bushwackers wrote:
A little bit disappointed that Amador is ranked behind Sicard though. I guess we'll for sure when the racing starts.
Ya, that is a good example of why this system is not useful to predict the riders points individualy, but should be better when all the team is put together:
Sicard's stronger Hill, Flat and Fight outscores Amador, even though Amador clearly outscore Sicard's in Stage race and Mountain. (winning both catagories).
So you cound say that Sicard's would be better fit so ride as a support in hills. That will not be a logic assumtion seen rider v rider, but should be a valuable calculation when all riders are put together.
Cool formulas, seems like occasionally certain rider types are overrated, i.e. (and this is just my guess at how things work ) Kump is an awesome rider but being counted highly for both sprints, hills and cobbles marks him up a lot. Same Theuns or Van Asbroeck, other times I makes sense though like with Sicard, who I believe will win the rankings.
I'm not going to comment on us being last again, formulas hate us.
Just to make it clear, he is not the lowes scoring rider, he is the rider scoring lowest out of the 245 riders scoring, another more than 300 riders score less (0 points)
I don't really see how Van Asbroeck is amongst the top 10 riders. Sure he has great backup stats, but the amount of races that suit him are rather limited. Your final ranking is within the general expectations so yeah
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
