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Tour of South Africa Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:19
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Note: First stage won`t come before Almaty. But with only PT races around, here something for the PCT/CT managers to discuss. 
It`s the stage race with the smallest startlist all year, which is somewhat surprising seeing the decent history here. Since 2012 some of the best puncheurs came to South Africa to fight for the win. And some things never change. The very best are here again!
6 stages of which the half is hilly, then 2 rather hilly sprinter stages plus a 35km TTT. Probably the biggest questionmark here as most puncheurs aren`t the very best against the clock.
In the past  Ben Nasser was one of the most successful here next to Monfort. At least first is at the start again and after a 8th, 1st, 2nd in the last 3 editions he wants to get another top result.
Though competition is tough as said.  Di Maggio as top puncheur surely a solid bet.  Roche already was 3rd here in 2013 and wants to improve on that.
 Dowsett is one of the very few riders being in the race in all 4 editions so far. Surprisingly only once in the top10 in the 2012 debut year. That said he often was only co-leader but not leads one of 2 CT teams himself!
The 2nd CT team is the well known Ferrero team around  Barbin, hence both look to score quite a lot here as the startlist is to their favour surely.
Other riders for a high GC are  Bystrom,  Schumacher,  Bilbao,  Gilbert, Roux,  Craven, Teklit to name a few.
| Hill | TT | Sprint | | Hill | TT | Sprint | | Di Maggio | 82 | 62 | 64 | Craven | 77 | 74 | 66 | | Roche | 80 | 72 | 69 | Teklit | 77 | 64 | 64 |  Ulissi | 80 | 62 | 74 | Khederi | 76 | 61 | 58 | | Costa | 80 | 76 | 69 | Pavarin | 76 | 56 | 72 | | Dowsett | 80 | 63 | 66 |  Honkisz | 76 | 62 | 63 | | Bilbao | 79 | 63 | 71 | Rabottini | 76 | 65 | 67 | | Bystrom | 79 | 61 | 68 | Hoogerland | 76 | 65 | 66 | | Ben Nasser | 79 | 66 | 70 | Meintjes | 76 | 69 | 61 | | Schumacher | 79 | 72 | 65 | Fumeaux | 76 | 65 | 62 | | Barbin | 78 | 63 | 71 | Pozzato | 75 | 67 | 74 | | Gilbert | 78 | 70 | 66 | Krizek | 75 | 66 | 67 | | Roux | 78 | 62 | 57 | Chérel | 75 | 67 | 61 |
Two sprint stages but both look rather difficult. Hence not many riders came here even though Nolan Hoffman once proved to even win the GC with bonus seconds and fighting in the hills. They will still be very interesting as several GC riders have a solid sprint as well and could go for bonus seconds. Modolo and Aregger though as best sprinters could get the top chances though.
| Hill | Sprint | Acceleration | | Hill | Sprint | Acceleration | | Modolo | 73 | 78 | 81 | Pozzato | 75 | 74 | 74 | | Aregger | 71 | 78 | 77 | Navarrete | 69 | 73 | 72 | | Redecker | 72 | 76 | 78 | Pavarin | 76 | 72 | 76 | | Navardauskas | 74 | 75 | 70 | Bille | 74 | 72 | 75 | | Tzortzakis | 63 | 75 | 74 | Bilbao | 79 | 71 | 75 | | Dupont | 63 | 75 | 77 | Barbin | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Ulissi | 80 | 74 | 75 | Bester | 72 | 71 | 71 |
TTT Strength:
| Generali - AXA | 75 | | Hugo Boss | 72 | | Arrinera | 72 | | Spotify - Haglöfs | 71 | | Team UBS | 71 | | Team Telkom for Africa | 71 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | 70 | | Vontobel | 70 | | Ferrero - Samruk | 68 | | La Poste - Mavic | 67 | | Netia - Norske Skog | 66 | | Strava | 65 |
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:30
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Classics Specialist
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Surprised by the startlist firstly 
Glad to see our TTT strength is around Hugo Boss, which makes me hope that we could actually see Roche beat Costa in a GC I think this is where we have our best winning chances all year, so I really hope we will do well here. It will for sure be hard to hide here. Solid chances of making up for our bad scoring and coming back to a more safe point in the Top 10,
Hope to see some solid reports Roturn as always 
If I should pick a winner, it would be Ulissi though, despite his bad season, it seems the route fits his rider type perfect, with no long hilly climbs that Roche likes so much.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:30
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Tour de France Champion
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Damn that startlist is really small but with Roche, Rui Costa and Di Maggio some big names are present. The race looks like Generali can finally turn around their luck tho.
I don't think I even realized that was a TTT but anyways we would suck at those regardless of set-up. Basically, we are here for stage wins and it looks like Modolo could get a nice points tally, with Gilbert an additional Top 10 candidate for GC and most stages. Modolo was able to hang onto the top puncheurs on more difficult terrain so maybe there's more than two opportunities to get a stage win and Potts & Dupont have been good helpers so far. Hope we'll just play our cards right like we did in De Panne recently.
Nice preview roturn, thks!
Edited by Shonak on 28-09-2016 08:31
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:31
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Directeur Sportif
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I can already feel the rage of Matt right now when he realizes that Ulissi would've won the whole thing if his own team wouldn't have dropped him on the TTT 
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 01:14
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:45
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Grand Tour Champion
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Massively small startlist!! The TTT could really let us down here, but we come with Dowsett for the GC and hopes of picking up some good points for us.
It is a strong hills team here for Alex, with Cherel and Bille as support. Tzortzakis could be a nice surprise in the sprints as well.
Thanks for the preview roturn
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| matt17br |
Posted on 28-09-2016 08:48
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Croatia14 wrote:
I can already feel the rage of Matt right now when he realizes that Ulissi would've won the whole thing if his own team wouldn't have dropped him on the TTT
Anyway team pls don't fuck this up. The win is ours if Ulissi doesn't lose too much time in hilly stages that couldn't suit him better and the TTT goes as planned. Also wow that sure is a small startlist, thought Bayern Rundfahrt I reported would be the smallest this year.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 28-09-2016 09:30
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I'm happy to be in the Giro, otherwise it would be a very quiet month for me
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Heine |
Posted on 28-09-2016 11:43
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Bah, not pariticpating here
Roche my favorite, but Ulussi could be really dangerous if he gets time from the TTT (that should be a sure thing, but not in this PCM...)
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 28-09-2016 16:00
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Looking forward to this race, our TTT strength is nothing so I saved LLS' race days for classics and no Palini here either means we have all our domestiques and no leader, could be fun.
No expectations though, especially as Panayotov gets our #1 on the startlist.
If he hangs on in the TTT, Ulissi not winning would be a surprise, otherwise, Costa is my pick.
Thanks for the preview Roturn!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 28-09-2016 16:07
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Team Leader
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Damn. Should have sent Vastaranta here, but expected a killer startlist with plenty of top punchers!
It will be interesting to see what kind of gaps will come.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 28-09-2016 16:33
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Wow, expected much better startlist then this. Maybe Byström can show something good here. 
Not know how PCM handles the fact that Byström is much worse compared to the team in TT. Will they wait for him or just ride away from him? |
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 28-09-2016 17:09
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Very excited about this race, thanks for the preview, roturn!
It's not a very long, but still a quality startlist.
My bets would be on Roche or Ulissi/Di Maggio. Most depending on stage 5: mountain value?, stamina influence?, ...
I don't see the TTT having much of an impact (if the AI don't drop leaders). Generali still may be favourites, but on day four guys like Beukeboom, Goldstein and most important van Winden have already suffered from the tough start. Our top six TTlers all have a 69+ hill value and should be able to minimize possible losses, same goes for other lineups with stronger punchers.
In short: Nothing crucial until stage 5 and Marcel Wyss will have a good race, finishing in the top20.
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 28-09-2016 17:14
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Back to racing. Seems like a good decision to send a stacked team here.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 28-09-2016 20:52
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Seems a good idea not to attend this home race
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 29-09-2016 06:35
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Small Tour Specialist
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Another hilly race where I cant say I regret showing up considering the startlist
After the lack of racing lately, Im really looking forward to this one!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 30-09-2016 07:28
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Ok that's a good start. All Diego needs is not to lose a lot of time from his rivals, which he really didn't today as 4 intermediate seconds are always useful.
Congrats hoyle though, nice attack by Dowsett. Nice report as usual roturn.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 30-09-2016 07:36
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Small Tour Specialist
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Good win hoyle, congratz
Good start for Costa aswell, hope to see my duo continuing in this form troighout the race.
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 30-09-2016 07:43
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Grand Tour Champion
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Finally Dowsett shows why we signed him! Amazing win and great work from Cherel and Bille at the end to keep it all together for Alex to take the sprint.
Thanks for the report roturn and I look forward to stage 2
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 30-09-2016 09:06
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Congrats. great start for the_hoyle! He could well earn his promotion with this race in South Africa if Dowsett keeps on delivering. Also a beautiful race from Navardasukas, the CT teams are doing great here!
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| Shonak |
Posted on 30-09-2016 10:30
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Tour de France Champion
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Hill was probably a tiny bit too tough for Modolo to launch the best sprint, the position didn't help either. If he had been around Aregger's position I'm sure he could have had a shot at the stage.
Great victory for hoyle, mighty points for the promo battle. Thanks for the report roturn!
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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