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Milano - Sanremo Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 11-09-2018 09:31
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La Classicissima! The first Monument of the 2018 season, and the longest one. Almost 300 kms!! A quick look into the profile, and you easily find out that this is not your typical sprinting classic. Obviously there's no other classic with such long distance, which will make all riders struggle at the end of the race, but the route is far from being flat.
Starting in Milano, the first climb is Passo del Turchino, around mid-race. Not the hardest climb, but maybe a climb to see some counter attacks by riders that didn't make it into the breakaway. Then we have the hardest climb of the day, La Manie. It's far enough from the finish to not be a race decider, but it could show which riders won't be able to fight for the win. Inside the final 50 kms we have the three Capo's, short climbs who have historically led to some long-range attacks. With 20 kms to go riders will go over La Cipressa, the penultimate climb of the day. If you are a strong rouleur and not a top puncheur, this is the climb where you have to attack. And of course Il Poggio di Sanremo is left, being passed with 6 kms left to the finish. After a tricky descent, we enter the streets of Sanremo, where the winner of the 2018 edition of the race will be decided in Via Roma
This race is a battle between pure sprinters and punchy sprinters, between puncheurs and roulers. All of them have their chances, but only one rider will take the win home.
We've seen a sprint in four of the past five years, with Boonen winning in 2013, Bewley in 2015 and 2016, and Van Stayen in 2017. Riccardo Ricco was the last man winning not in a sprint, in 2014. With the growth of punchy sprinters all around the PT, we expect another sprint between these type of riders, with Van Stayen as the obvious favourite.
| Pure Sprinters | SPR | ACC | HIL | STA | FLA | Punchy Sprinters | SPR | ACC | HIL | STA | FLA |  Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 68 | 75 | 75 |  Van Stayen | 84 | 78 | 79 | 76 | 76 |  Ciolek | 83 | 79 | 66 | 73 | 75 |  Grosu | 83 | 80 | 73 | 74 | 73 | | Enger | 81 | 78 | 69 | 71 | 73 |  Bewley | 83 | 83 | 71 | 78 | 78 |  Zabel | 81 | 79 | 69 | 74 | 74 |  Demare | 82 | 81 | 79 | 75 | 73 | | Vesely | 81 | 80 | 68 | 74 | 73 |  Kump | 81 | 80 | 77 | 76 | 74 |  Tzortzakis | 81 | 77 | 64 | 70 | 73 |  Van der Lijke | 81 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 73 |  Silvestre | 80 | 81 | 67 | 70 | 78 |  Van Asbroeck | 80 | 78 | 71 | 75 | 75 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | 64 | 73 | 74 |  Houle | 79 | 78 | 75 | 76 | 78 |  Bertilsson | 79 | 77 | 69 | 72 | 73 | Gaviria | 79 | 82 | 71 | 72 | 74 |  Lander | 79 | 77 | 69 | 77 | 77 | Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 | 77 | 75 | | Pelucchi | 79 | 77 | 68 | 74 | 74 | Van Avermaet | 77 | 77 | 75 | 77 | 77 |  Docker | 79 | 77 | 68 | 69 | 72 | Tsatevich | 75 | 75 | 77 | 74 | 74 |  Reinhardt | 79 | 84 | 67 | 73 | 71 | McEvoy | 75 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 70 |
Let's start with the punchy sprinters. Van Stayen as reigning winner of the race is the obvious favourite, and with an improved sprint over the winter, he could win the race even if it's non selective.
Demare is another great puncheur with a superb sprint, which was also improved over the winter. Maybe not strong to win the race in any kind of racing situation, but he should a lock for a podium spot
Kump and Van der Lijke are one level behind the other two riders mentioned, but it would be a surprise to not see both of them in the Top10 at the finish
Bewley can't never be write off of a race like this, even less considering he's won two times this race, and all of them in the last 3 years. He's looking for his 11th Monument!
Grosu is a rider that would be a race favourite if those hilly sprinter beasts didn't exist
Van Asbroeck, Houle, Gaviria, Reimer or Van Avermaet are riders well suited to this race, but some of them might have to work for better leaders.
Kinda weak the pure sprinters field. After several disappointments in the past years, riders like Swift, Coquard and a lot of 82-83 sprinters won't be in the starting line. The best pure sprinters are Kristoff and Ciolek. Neither of them are too shaby in the hills, but they rather see a non-selective race.
Enger, Zabel and Vesely are bordeline between pure and punchy sprinters, but unless the race is decided in a very very reduced group, they all should be fighting for decent places.
Silvestre and Lander are two interesting riders for the race, given their amazing flat skills, and also Lander's great ability to ride in very long races
| Puncheur | HIL | STA | FLA | ACC | SPR | Rouleurs | FLA | HIL | STA | SPR | ACC |  Hagen | 85 | 81 | 77 | 79 | 73 |  Wisniowski | 80 | 71 | 75 | 73 | 76 | | Ponzi | 84 | 77 | 76 | 80 | 76 | Stoltz | 80 | 68 | 76 | 62 | 74 |  De Bie | 83 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 72 | Kneisky | 79 | 67 | 76 | 67 | 71 | | Sagan | 82 | 78 | 72 | 76 | 73 | Dzamastagic | 78 | 70 | 76 | 76 | 78 | | Gastauer | 82 | 78 | 69 | 76 | 67 | Oss | 78 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 74 |  Ginanni | 82 | 77 | 72 | 73 | 65 | Gerts | 77 | 76 | 76 | 72 | 70 | | Trofimov | 81 | 77 | 72 | 73 | 72 | Van Avermaet | 77 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 77 | | Koretzky | 80 | 77 | 73 | 79 | 71 | Bar | 77 | 70 | 75 | 77 | 76 | | Waeytens | 80 | 72 | 70 | 73 | 66 | Kamyshev | 77 | 65 | 81 | 66 | 60 | | Boswell | 80 | 77 | 70 | 76 | 65 | Andersen | 77 | 63 | 75 | 71 | 70 |
Several top puncheurs present in the race, specially two of them have gotten consistent Top10 results in the past years; Hagen and Ponzi.
De Bie and Ginanni will have to be attacking as they are their team's only hope in the race, but Sagan and Gastauer will either have domestique duties, or less pressure to perform given who else they have in their teams.
In the rouleurs side, the strongest should be Wisniowski. The Polish star already won last season a flat classic in PTHC level, so he knows what to do in this type of races to win them. Stoltz, Dzamastagic and Van Avermaet will all be part of Van Stayen's support, but it will depend of what Evonik DS thinks. Kneisky, Oss and Gerts are three riders that are strong in the flat and enjoy long-distance races.
So now we know all the protagonists for the 109th edition of La Primavera. Good luck to all!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 11-09-2018 09:42
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Classics Specialist
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Didn't think Boeckmans would do any good here and went for Rv Nederland for Bakelants, even though he probably would have managed a top 15-20. Decided to go for Wisniowski as a captain, not really sure what to expect. We are of course hoping he can do something similar to Ignatiev, but I fear his hill and stamina is a bit too weak at the moment. A top 10 would be a great result for us, in Wisniowski's first race of the season, but wouldn't be disappointed if we end up well outside that.
Looking forward to the battle for the win, hoping for another showdown between Van Staeyen and Démare.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 11-09-2018 09:43
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World Champion
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I'm surprised to get so many mentions here. Sure, we went all in for our sponsor, but still a bit disapppointed by the startlist of this monument. A top 10 result may be possible!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-09-2018 09:52
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World Champion
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So many contenders I don't know what to write as a non-participant here  Go Evonik's awesome lineup, and go Kump! Thanks for a great preview Aquarius: you just had to slip in Kneisky, didn't you?
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-09-2018 09:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Probably the most exciting race of the year for me. Definitely hoping for another Demare vs Van Stayen battle although Bewbastard and guys like Ponzi will be in the mix too - no matter if it will be a race for the puncheurs like last season or a bigger group for the sprint line the year before.
Ive got a 80-78-77-76-75-74-74-68 Flat group, a 79-77-75-74-73-72-70-64 hill group and 78-78-78-77-74-74-70-68 ACC so it should be a good group for the race.
Do we get a weather forecast? Is wind expected?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Ad Bot |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:04
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Expecting a terrible result like in Badaling and Grand Duché (where I did not expect it though)  Guess a breakaway appearance is all I can hope for.
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| roturn |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:07
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It will be a sprint decision of strong sprinters such as Demare, Van Stayen, Bewley, but still have some hope the puncheurs can make it somewhat difficult and not just wait for a sprint of 20-30 riders to then get a 13th or something.
Even worse if it`s that easy to see a sprint of 50-100+ riders still.
So those 2-3 teams fully concentrating on a strong puncheur please make it as difficult as possible and then also attack instead of waiting.
That all said, Evonik most likely should normally be very strong to close everything down and make some 1-7-11-13-17 big scoring. |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:08
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i love this race, reporting it last year was the most I've ever enjoyed reporting a race because it was such a spectacular event, hope we get a similar race this year!
Cheering for Evonik - such an awesome squad with every rider being so cool for this race (go Dzamamagic  )! Will be intersting to see what Kump does as well, though we all know Torkil Veyhe's going to win this for T-Mobile!
For some reason my gut says Vand der Lijke winning, Van Asbroeck and Mcevoy in the top 5.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| ember |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:14
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This one should be interesting. Afraid the lack of the top class pure sprinters will hurt our chances as well, as the teams looking to have a calm race and a bunch sprint will be few. If we get that though, we should be in a great position.
Though, looking at the startlist, it feels like it's time for a punchy sprinter like Van Stayen, Démare, Van der Lijke or Kump, with Van Stayen the obvious favourite, as the preview says.
If it becomes a difficult race suiting those, it would be great to see Oss or even Trentin ride their own chance, as their hill and sprint should be decent on such a profile. Afraid they won't be allowed though, with our sprinters all having hopes of landing a top 10 here.
Really excited to see this one play out, as really anything can happen |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:15
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@knockout There will be some wind in the race, whether if it's enough to affect racing... we'll see
@jandal 
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| SotD |
Posted on 11-09-2018 10:22
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World Champion
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We considered bringing Coquard here, but looking at past results such sprinters won't get a good result, so instead i brought Tzortzakis, who is a "free bet" considering his level and amount of racedays.
I have instead brought Clement Koretzky in the hope of a replica of last season, where he managed 10th. Jocelyn Bar can, on a very good day, kick into the top 20 so he obviously needed to be here also.
A good result here will heavily rely on good luck, though, so here's me crossing my fingers for something decent, as we are currently in the dropzone IIRC.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 11-09-2018 15:12
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MSR is nearly half of the reason Demare received sprint training this season, and with its status as the first spring highlight (in particular for a team who has not much to gain on the cobbles) beyond it being a goal race for us, it's highly exciting to have preparations for it start now.
Being the lone 6th best sprinter here regardless of hill stat, I hope there will be good positioning at least for Demare himself over the Poggio, with any sort of catching up to the front effort having to be done after it using up energy you have no road left to recover again. Or as the worst case scenario, some guys get away up front and you can't react.
Ideally, we get involved in the chasing duties and/or are one of the teams with a massive presence at the front of the peloton, as with all 8 riders being 72+ hill and SEVEN of those being 70+ sprint as well, it would be great to get three or four of those over the hills in a good position coming the sprint to add valuable points behind Demare.
Arnaud was extremely attentive last season and even set tempo himself up the poggio. It ended up a big mistake to not latch onto Evonik's train and work the middle of the road alone instead going into the final k. I hope we'll avoid that stuff this time, or even manage a train ourselves with possibly Arndt and Felline.
I think it's fair to announce Top 5 as a must under normal circumstances, especially considering Demare himself will have that expectation himself anyway. Finally achieving our sponsor goal of a Top 3 would be hugely impactful for our finances going forward and is surely possible looking at Demare's very fine ride in Grand-Duché.
Although, one final word: I'd take literally any final result as long as it's ahead of Van Stayen.
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| fintas |
Posted on 11-09-2018 17:58
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I do not know what to expect from this race, the team has no one able to stand out on this type of terrain. Perhaps McEvoy is the only one capable of achieving a recordable result, any place in the top30 will be good.
With all this I expect at least some TV time with at least one man present in the break
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-09-2018 18:07
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Grand Tour Champion
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cio93 wrote:
Although, one final word: I'd take literally any final result as long as it's ahead of Van Stayen.
Be careful what you wish for.
1. Dzamastagic
2. Stoltz
3. Wisniowski
4. Veyhe
5. Bar
...
51. Demare
52. Van Stayen
If Puma somehow scores more points than Evonik its a desaster for us. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 11-09-2018 18:09
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knockout wrote:
cio93 wrote:
Although, one final word: I'd take literally any final result as long as it's ahead of Van Stayen.
Be careful what you wish for.
1. Dzamastagic
2. Stoltz
3. Wisniowski
4. Veyhe
5. Bar
...
51. Demare
52. Van Stayen
If Puma somehow scores more points than Evonik its a desaster for us.
I would take that 5th for Bar anyday
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 11-09-2018 18:19
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With some strong teams working to get a sprint I don't expect an attack to be succesful. So we'll just have to hope for a selective race, which might allow Ginanni to sneak into an ok position at the finish.
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| Heine |
Posted on 11-09-2018 19:41
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No expectations here, any result is seen as a great result
But to be honest, lets just agree on the result posted by Knockout, I would take that any day of the week
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 11-09-2018 21:48
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My team's record here is pretty abysmal. Sure, we've won it once - Pellizotti in 2009. But other than that...
| # | Best Rider | | 2017 | 75 | Wippert | | 2016 | 62 | Van der Lijke | | 2015 | 48 | Gastauer | | 2014 | 28 | Swift | | 2013 | 34 | Paterski | | 2012 | 23 | Paterski | | 2011 | 47 | F Schleck | | 2010 | 14 | Pellizotti | | 2009 | 1 | Pellizotti | | 2008 | 29 | F Schleck | | 2007 | 47 | Cobo |
Swift's presence was always enough for the team to work, but he was never strong enough to hold on. Gastauer has never bettered 38th and even Van der Lijke has had no luck, crashing out last year and finishing nearly last.
This is surely the strongest team we've sent to the race though. Van der Lijke stronger than ever; Reimer in support; plus Kneisky and Gastauer - as mentioned in the preview.
I can't possibly have high hopes, given the history, but there's a chance this is the year things turn around. It's nice to see many of the top sprinters ignoring the race too - not only a likely sensible decision on their part, but it lifts Van der Lijke up the AI hierarchy, which has to help.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 12-09-2018 01:22
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A rider in the botd would be nice
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 12-09-2018 08:11
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Excited for this! Got two options here with Kristoff And Ponzi, both should be capable of pulling a decent result here. Hard to look past MVS here though!
Bring it on!
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