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Tour of Almaty Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 16-11-2017 19:36
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Second edition of Tour of Almaty, a hilly classic in Kazakhstan. Despite clashing with Strade Bianche, we have here some of the best puncheurs in PCT. Last year the race ended in a “mass” sprint won by Simon Yates (Podium Ambition). The British rider is not here to defend his “crown”, but there are plenty of riders hoping to win this race.
For me there are three big favourites, one for all the possible outcomes of the race.
The first one is  Tejay van Garderen. The American is the best puncheur in the race and will lead Newton Foundation in what’s a Win Goal for the team. Obviously lot of pressure on him to perform today. He might need to arrive “solo” to win this, but his sprint is good enough if the best sprinters can’t fight for the win.
The second favourite is  Diego Ulissi, Generali’s leader. Not as strong as TvG in the uphill terrain, but his better max speed should help him to achieve a great result whether if he has to sprint in a “mass group” or in a reduced one.
And the last one is a risky bet, but looking at last year’s winner (and how the race was won), is not that crazy to think of him as a favourite. We are talking of  Marko Kump. If he can sprint in the leading group, he’ll win for sure. His big problem will be that he is unlikely to be able to follow riders like TvG, Kinoshita, Anuar Aziz... if they attack from “long” distance.
Behind them, I see a big group of riders who can fight for the win, but lack the strenghts of the big favourites, and either they have a great day, or they are “lucky” if they want to win.  Kinoshita is the second best puncheur here, and i’m sure he would have like a longer race to use his great stamina efectively. And  Anuar Aziz is pretty much the same as Kinoshita, except for his way lower acceleration than the Japanese rider, so we will have a hard time in the sprint.
 Kwiatkowski,  Betancourt,  Costa and  van der Hugenhaben should be amongst the first places, like maybe  Klemme and  Palini.
Also, watch out with Ignatiev all-rounder skills. Despite not being as good in hills as the rest, his varied strenghts will put him in the first places in the finish. We also have here a couple of good sprinter who can survive hills, like Modolo and Theuns. They are worse than Kump, but in the right race situation, a top5 is not impossible for them
| Rider | FLA | HIL | RES | SPR | ACC | | Van Garderen | 73 | 82 | 75 | 70 | 79 | | Kinoshita | 73 | 81 | 77 | 68 | 77 | | Ulissi | 76 | 80 | 71 | 74 | 75 | | Kump | 74 | 76 | 73 | 80 | 80 | | Ignatiev | 80 | 75 | 74 | 72 | 82 | | Anuar Aziz | 72 | 81 | 73 | 67 | 71 | | Kwiatkowski | 72 | 79 | 76 | 67 | 75 | | Betancourt | 69 | 80 | 71 | 67 | 74 | | Costa | 70 | 80 | 72 | 69 | 72 | | Barbin | 69 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 75 | | van der Hugenhaben | 73 | 80 | 76 | 68 | 66 | | Paulinho | 67 | 78 | 72 | 68 | 75 | | Modolo | 74 | 73 | 72 | 78 | 81 | | Palini | 69 | 78 | 68 | 68 | 74 | | Selander | 71 | 76 | 71 | 70 | 76 | | Pavarin | 70 | 76 | 69 | 72 | 76 |  Vastaranta | 72 | 75 | 70 | 74 | 76 | | Theuns | 72 | 74 | 73 | 77 | 76 | | Klemme | 71 | 80 | 70 | 66 | 66 |  Moazemi | 67 | 78 | 72 | 65 | 73 |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 16-11-2017 19:43
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Pretty strong startlist, given the clash with Strade Bianche. Watson have been up and down so far this season, hopefully he's back at a good level here and can challenge for a top 10.
TJ for the win.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 16-11-2017 19:52
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Yeah I mean if the AI didn't treat Ulissi like trash I'd see us top 3ing it but as it stands Ulissi will probably just lose a bunch sprint. Badly. I'm positive though, so I'm gonna say we're winning this.
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| jaxika |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:01
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Noone mentioned from my team. Every point will be a gift then  |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:02
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First time LLS and Kwiatek head out together, but with a much harder startlist than probably reasonable to expect, so hard to really know what to aspire too, especially as the team hasn't really been so aggressive recently, which is the way >80 puncheurs need to be if they want to score points in the hilly races.
Awesome to see another high quality preview from you Aquarius! Thank you! 
My prediction is for Ferrero to finish like Strava in a cobbled classic and score so many points that they don't really need to worry about those other races.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| knockout |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:17
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trekbmc wrote:
First time LLS and Kwiatek head out together, but with a much harder startlist than probably reasonable to expect, so hard to really know what to aspire too, especially as the team hasn't really been so aggressive recently, which is the way >80 puncheurs need to be if they want to score points in the hilly races.
Awesome to see another high quality preview from you Aquarius! Thank you!
My prediction is for Ferrero to finish like Strava in a cobbled classic and score so many points that they don't really need to worry about those other races.
Good call on Ferrero. Their race could be massive.
Also Kwiatek + LLS together <3 That combo can only be gold 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:19
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Aquarius97 wrote:
We are talking of Marko Kump. If he can sprint in the leading group, he’ll win for sure.
You know, actually that is a familiar thought for me this past week...
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 09:16
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:37
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We're not really sending a strong team here do a bit of a planning mistake, but hopefully Vastaranta will pull something off and behind I'll be cheering for an AI that is sufficiently crappy to allow Lo Cicero to sprint to minor points.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:56
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Just a tiny little bit of points here, thank you.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 16-11-2017 20:58
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cio93 wrote:
Aquarius97 wrote:
We are talking of Marko Kump. If he can sprint in the leading group, he’ll win for sure.
You know, actually that is a familiar thought for me this past week...
well, Gent Wevelgem makes me still cry
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 16-11-2017 21:01
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Atlantius wrote:
We're not really sending a strong team here do a bit of a planning mistake, but hopefully Vastaranta will pull something off and behind I'll be cheering for an AI that is sufficiently crappy to allow Lo Cicero to sprint to minor points.
That is seriously amazing, if Swift can win a hilly race, why can't Lo Cicero win? 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| fintas |
Posted on 16-11-2017 21:42
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I was not expecting such a strong startlist because of the clash with strade bianche. My expectations for this race have just been reduced, Costa in the top 10 is the big goal. I also hope that the team's depth will pays off once again and that Vogt and Paulinho will get respectable places.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 16-11-2017 21:51
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We have such a bad team here. Fingers crossed for breakaway! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 16-11-2017 21:54
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Stronger startlist than expected, but that doesn't make me less hopeful about Betancourt's performances. You can do it buddy!
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 16-11-2017 22:14
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Had hoped for a little less big guns considering the clash with Strade Bianche.
Our win goal and most important race of the season considering it's our only home race. Last year we got second with Mandri from a sprint. If it ends up similar this year Barbin, Palini or even Pavarin can surprise. Modolo with the great all around stats and sprint will hopefully also be up there. Ignatiev I think has most chance in a break.
Winning will be tough but atleast we should be in the fight somewhat hopefully.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 16-11-2017 22:45
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Alright a much more stacked startlist than I anticipated lets not get 0 points
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 17-11-2017 02:52
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Hoping to win here.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 17-11-2017 04:11
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Hoping to win here. (More than Valv321).
Come on TVG!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 17-11-2017 04:53
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Well I said it first, thats gotta count for something.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 17-11-2017 08:14
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@Aquarius97
Can you reveal the calculation behind the riders list ?
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