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Paris - Roubaix Discussion
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 05-01-2021 15:42
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 Paris - Roubaix
History
| Year | Winner | Team | | 2019 | Lukasz Wisniowski | Grieg - Maersk | | 2018 | Sam Bewley | Moser - Sygic | | 2017 | Sam Bewley | Moser - Sygic | | 2016 | Sam Bewley | Becherovka - Petrof | | 2015 | Sam Bewley | Becherovka - Petrof | | 2014 | Sam Bewley | Becherovka - Kiwibank | | 2013 | Sam Bewley | Milka - AVG | | 2012 | Tom Boonen | Nestlé Cycling Team | | 2011 | Tom Boonen | Warner Brothers - Carrefour | | 2010 | Marcus Burghardt | Wikipedia | | 2009 | Tom Boonen | Warner Brothers | | 2008 | Fabian Cancellara | Accumalux | | 2007 | Tom Boonen | Quick Step - Innergetic |
We commence the month of April, which is notable for two big events in cycling. On the third of April, the first Grand Tour of the year will start in Italy, but on the first of April (no joke) we have the third monument of the year: Paris - Roubaix. Held a week after the second monument, Ronde van Vlaanderen, it is the joint-most important race for the classic specialists. In the past thirteen editions, only five riders managed to celebrate in the VĂ©lodrome. Lukasz Wisniowski took his first win last time, ending a six-year streak from record holder Sam Bewley. The only other rider to have won the race more than once is Tom Boonen, four times between 2007 and 2012, interrupted by Fabian Cancellara in 2008 and Marcus Burghardt in 2010. Will Wisniowski start a streak of his own? Will Bewley strike back for his seventh? Or will we see a sixth different winner?
Profile
Despite the race being called Paris - Roubaix, the start is actually in Saint-Quentin, 130 kilometer above Paris. The first eighty-five kilometer are wide asphalt roads, but then the carnage starts. The riders have to cross 29 cobblestone sectors, with three sectors of the highest difficulty: Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévele and Le Carrefour de l'Arbre. The arrival city is not a lie, as the riders finish at the vélodrome in Roubaix. A full list of cobblestone sectors can be found below:
| # | Sector | KM | Length | Difficulty | | 29 | Place de l'Hôtel de Ville de Saint-Quentin | 4.0 | 0.8 | **** | | 28 | Troisvilles - Viesly | 87.7 | 4.5 | *** | | 27 | Viesly - Quiévy | 93.6 | 1.8 | **** | | 26 | Quiévy - Saint-Python | 96.4 | 3.7 | **** | | 25 | Saint-Python | 101.1 | 1.5 | *** | | 24 | Saint-Martin-sur-Ecaillon - Vertain | 108.6 | 2.4 | ** | | 23 | Quérénaing - Artres | 120.2 | 1.1 | *** | | 22 | Artres - Préseau | 122.7 | 1.9 | ** | | 21 | Préseau - Famars | 126.1 | 3.4 | *** | | 20 | Maing - Monchaux-sur-Ecaillon | 133.4 | 1.8 | *** | | 19 | Haveluy - Wallers | 145.5 | 2.5 | **** | | 18 | Trouée d'Arenberg | 153.1 | 2.5 | ***** | | 17 | Wallers - Hélesmes | 159.7 | 1.9 | *** | | 16 | Hornaing - Wandignies | 166.5 | 3.6 | **** | | 15 | Warlaing - Brillon | 174.3 | 2.6 | *** | | 14 | Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosières | 177.5 | 2.3 | **** | | 13 | Beuvry-la-Forêt - Orchies | 183.9 | 1.4 | *** | | 12 | Orchies | 188.9 | 1.7 | *** | | 11 | Auchy-les-Orchies - Bersée | 194.6 | 2.8 | **** | | 10 | Mons-en-Pévele | 202.1 | 2.8 | ***** | | 9 | Cappelle-en-Pévele - La Poissonnerie | 206.8 | 1.6 | *** | | 8 | Pont-Thibault - Ennevelin | 213.7 | 1.4 | ** | | 7 | Cysoing - Bourghelles | 226.1 | 1.4 | *** | | 6 | Bourghelles - Wannehain | 228.3 | 1.2 | *** | | 5 | Champin-en-Pévele | 233.1 | 1.9 | **** | | 4 | Le Carrefour de l'Arbre | 235.8 | 2.0 | ***** | | 3 | Gruson | 238.5 | 1.1 | ** | | 2 | Chéreng - Château d'Hem | 243.2 | 3.3 | *** | | 1 | Roubaix | 251.1 | 0.3 | *** |
Startlist
If you're looking for a in-depth preview of everyone's season so far, I'd refer you to the Ronde van Vlaanderen preview made by Fabianski, who lays it out perfectly for you! As the startlists are almost identical, why do the work twice? This preview will only add previous results in Paris - Roubaix as well as this year's results from RVV, E3 and/or KBK if the rider participated there. The only big differences between the two races are the profile, which is flatter here in France, and a change of wildcard from Popo4Ever to Adastra, meaning certain winner Bakari will not participate. The race is therefore wide open!
| Big Three | COB | SP | ACC | FL | STA | RES |  Wisniowski | 83 | 73 | 76 | 80 | 75 | 76 |  Bewley | 82 | 82 | 82 | 77 | 77 | 75 |  Summerhill | 83 | 70 | 73 | 78 | 76 | 72 |
If you could place a bet for which three riders would finish on the podium, withholding the exact order, then this should be the safest bet.
It is only fair to start at the reigning and defending champion, the champion of the woooooooooooooooooorld: Lukasz Wisniowski. Will he be able to start a domination streak like the man he beat the year before? He ended up in second place in Ronde van Vlaanderen, but did not participate in the E3 Prijs or Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne. He appears to be struck by the rainbow curse, as he hasn't managed to win anything in his World Champions jersey this season. This would be one hell of a place to turn it around though. There is someone who won in that jersey before, Bewley in 2016.
It's not fair to refer to Sam Bewley as has been after his defeat. Pulling another six victories in a row would be difficult, he'd be 38 by the time he achieved that, but there is surely enough left in the tank to go for a seventh victory, especially if there is a group finish. The last time he finished outside the top four (his position last season) was 2010, when he only finished thirteenth. He finished third in Ronde van Vlaanderen this year, behind the other two in this section, meaning it could be the first season since 2012 where he doesn't win a monument. He did win the E3 Prijs, although the other two were absent there.
Danny Summerhill already has his big win, last week's Ronde van Vlaanderen. The last rider to win the double was, who else but, Bewley in 2017. The organizers rightly gave a wildcard to Andorra for this race as well. He's been the dominant force in the cobblestones so far, both at his usual PCT level and when taking it up against the PT. I was going to write that he won every cobblestone race he participated in but then he blew it Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne, finishing a historically low fourth. Looking at his results in this race, he finished runner-up last year, and third in 2013, so the top step of the podium is left to complete the collection.
| Contending Five | COB | SP | ACC | FL | STA | RES |  Spengler | 83 | 61 | 70 | 74 | 72 | 73 |  Blythe | 82 | 76 | 73 | 76 | 76 | 71 |  Senechal | 82 | 69 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 74 | | Kamyshev | 82 | 66 | 60 | 77 | 81 | 75 |  Stallaert | 81 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 76 | 68 |
Not every race goes to the expected names. It is cycling after all, anything can happen!
Lukas Spengler is a match to the big three on the cobblestones, that much is certain. His problems lie in other departments, which is why he never could put his mark on this race. His only top 30 came in 2018, when he finished 22nd. However, it is rumored he has trained a lot during the winter with this race specifically in mind. Given he took a career-best twelfth in Ronde, he is surely capable of improving his position here as well.
Adam Blythe finished fourth behind the big three in Ronde van Vlaanderen. His best ever finish in this race is also fourth, but the old saying* goes: where two dogs fight for a leg, the third one goes with it, except we need to modify it to where three dogs fight for a leg, the fourth one goes with it. On the other hand, he looked weak in E3 where he was beaten in a sprint for fifth by 'my grandma accelerates faster' Zepuntke, while he is normally one of the few to get close to Bewley.
* A severe case of 'Make that the cat wise', a literal translation of a Dutch proverb.
A familiar name in the top ten is Florian Senechal, finishing there in every edition since 2015 with a best result of second in 2017. Judging by his recent results, tenth in Ronde and seventh in E3, he is more than capable of finishing amongst the first ten again. He's been close to winning so often, so at one point things have to fall his way, right?
He'd have to compete with Arman Kamyshev for team leadership. The Kazakh had the better week, ninth in Ronde and second in E3, but unlike the Frenchman he has never cracked a top ten in this race, a best result of thirteenth in 2018. Assuming neither will receive outright leadership from the manager, they could use this partnership to full advantage by alternating attacks, and hoping one of them will cross the line first and take the cobblestone home.
One of the few to challenge Bewley in a sprint to the line is Joeri Stallaert. If he is in the front group entering the vélodrome, watch out for the Belgian! The only time he ever was in the front group was 2018, where he finished second behind you-know-who. In the recent RvV he finished fifth, losing to Blythe in the sprint for fourth. He could take his ultimate revenge over both nemeses by beating them in a sprint here.
| Outside Eight | COB | SP | ACC | FL | STA | RES | | Vanspeybrouck | 81 | 66 | 68 | 75 | 77 | 70 |  Teunissen | 81 | 67 | 69 | 76 | 77 | 73 |  Sibilla | 81 | 66 | 64 | 71 | 72 | 68 |  Gerts | 80 | 72 | 70 | 77 | 76 | 80 |  Theuns | 80 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 76 | 73 | | Pedersen | 79 | 78 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 80 |  Per | 79 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 74 | 75 |  Kasperkiewicz | 79 | 59 | 66 | 74 | 73 | 75 |
The riders in this section are not expected to win or stand on the podium, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise either.
Vanspeybrouck is Summerhill's lieutenant. Given how the American's season is going, it is unlikely the Belgian will even try to take leadership, even though he finished two places ahead of him in the most recent race, second versus fourth in KBK. It is not unthinkable though that he will finish in the top ten while helping his leader. And who knows, if misfortune strikes Summerhill on Carrefour de l'Arbre, will he wait or rebel?
Teunissen's season is hardly going well. Eleventh in Vlaanderen at four minutes, and ninth in E3 at three-and-a-half minutes. However, he did keep Bewley from a podium in the last edition, which surely should give him a boost in morale for this race specifically.
Sibilla is perhaps a case of past glory. A regular top fifteen finisher at the start of the decade, and nineteenth in 2018. If we look at his last week, we should probably take him out of this list. Twenty-eighth and twenty-third are not really results to write home about.
A rider who is definitely more suited to Vlaanderen than Roubaix is Gerts, as he is one of the few to really like climbing. While there is a bit of elevation, it is likely not going to be a factor in the results. Hence we should judge him by the recent results in this race, tenth in the previous edition and eleventh the year before. A similar position is expected but you can always gun for more.
Theuns is another rider who wants this race to go to a sprint. He beat Blythe in the sprint for sixth last time out, and his eighth place in Vlaanderen suggest the form is also good.
One of the hottest targets on the transfer market was Pedersen, negotiating his way to a wage of more than a million. It is rather an investment in the future as he can learn from Wisniowski, whom he helped to victory last year and finished twenty-fifth himself. This year he should be closer to the front.
There is a Slovenian everywhere and this race is no exception. Per took seventh last week in RVV and had a midweek podium visit in E3. His twenty-third place last year in this very race was a good reconnaissance, he is still young and should work his way up the tables.
Kasperkiewicz changed from Netia to King Power and can finally play with the big boys. Twentieth in Ronde van Vlaanderen was a cold welcome to the world of monuments, but luckily there is another chance for him here.
| Wildcard Thirteen | COB | SP | ACC | FL | STA | RES | | Sulimov | 79 | 65 | 71 | 73 | 77 | 71 |  Fenn | 79 | 70 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 71 | | Zubov | 79 | 61 | 69 | 68 | 70 | 69 | | Machado | 79 | 62 | 61 | 69 | 72 | 67 | | Polanc | 78 | 67 | 75 | 72 | 78 | 73 |  David | 78 | 70 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 74 | | Ringheim | 78 | 73 | 75 | 72 | 75 | 71 | | Gaday | 78 | 71 | 73 | 71 | 75 | 72 | | Neilands | 78 | 71 | 67 | 77 | 74 | 73 | | Lampaert | 78 | 60 | 61 | 75 | 74 | 73 |  Van Hooydonck | 78 | 61 | 72 | 71 | 73 | 72 |  Puccio | 78 | 60 | 55 | 72 | 76 | 71 |  Kristoff | 77 | 82 | 77 | 74 | 73 | 69 |
At this point in the preview, we're looking at riders happy at a top ten as most of them are helpers to a bigger leader anyway.
Sulimov finished fifth in 2017, but he is only the third in the Tinkoff order of precedence and will likely be delegated to chasing after other riders. However, he did finish eleventh in E3 Prijs. A similar story for Zubov who might be leader in another team but is paid well to fetch bottles here.
Fenn also boasts some decent past results, seventh in 2017 and multiple placings in the top fifteen. A fourteenth place is Vlaanderen was an expected result, he should aim for something similar here.
Machado's goal in this race will be helping Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck, and by the fact the Frenchman never finished top thirty here and finished in a disastrous fifty-fifth place on the other side of the border, it will not be any more than that.
Polanc finished fourth in E3 Prijs in a tandem with Per who finished one position ahead of him. Perhaps the other teams have taken notice of this tactic and won't let them get away so easily. His bronze medal in the World Championship also solidifies his status as a rider capable of handling cobblestones.
A rider who does lead his team is David. His twelfth place last season can be considered good. His thirty-third in Ronde last week? Not so much. Hopefully it's more of the former for the New Zealander in the Australian team.
Van Hooydonck leads for Aegon, and his results this season are even more disappointing. Forty-second in Ronde van Vlaanderen and thirty-first in E3 Prijs, perhaps not feeling the pressure in his home country might bring him closer to the top.
It could even be worse, as Puccio finished fifty-sixth in Ronde. On the other hand, E3 Prijs went much better with thirteenth place. Continuing the trend he should finish minus thirtieth. That's impossible of course, but let's hope the number doesn't go down again.
Perhaps the most important name in this category is the one worst on the cobblestones, but Kristoff is by no means a slouch. His main strength is his sprint, and might be the only one who can beat Bewley in equal circumstances. He already finished on the podium two years ago, the only time he was present in the front group at the end. Get there again and the sky is the limit!
Ringheim, Gaday, Neilands and Lampaert all have a rider in their team with better chances. They could all finish top twenty and make the manager happy with depth points, but the race situation might require sacrifices to help their leader achieve an even higher position.
| Longshot Twenty-One | COB | SP | ACC | FL | STA | RES |  Declerq | 77 | 67 | 67 | 74 | 73 | 71 | | Bohli | 77 | 74 | 68 | 74 | 79 | 75 | | Kuroeda | 77 | 74 | 78 | 74 | 72 | 73 |  Karatzios | 77 | 63 | 65 | 77 | 75 | 71 | | Boros | 77 | 64 | 66 | 73 | 73 | 69 | | Kosic | 77 | 59 | 64 | 72 | 74 | 70 | | Grand | 77 | 65 | 65 | 72 | 74 | 70 | | Eeckhout | 77 | 64 | 57 | 72 | 71 | 71 |  Anderberg | 76 | 60 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 75 |  Sanogo | 76 | 69 | 70 | 73 | 71 | 72 | | Petit | 72 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 72 | | Drapac | 64 | 80 | 79 | 71 | 70 | 65 | | Lander | 73 | 79 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 72 | | Hsu | 72 | 79 | 79 | 75 | 75 | 70 |  Afewerki | 69 | 79 | 80 | 73 | 77 | 70 | | Stauff | 64 | 79 | 79 | 73 | 72 | 67 | | Harrison | 73 | 78 | 81 | 72 | 73 | 70 | | Jakobsen | 72 | 78 | 78 | 72 | 73 | 72 | | Cullaigh | 71 | 78 | 79 | 71 | 71 | 69 | | Centrone | 74 | 53 | 58 | 72 | 70 | 66 |  Gani | 67 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 73 |
I'm not confident enough to say I'll eat my shoe if one of these riders wins, but none of these riders will win.
Declerq has already been transfer-listed by his manager which surely damages his morale. Could he prove his manager made a rash decision or does another mediocre result in instant sacking? Get a camera crew to Puma for some good television in that case.
Karatzios leads the Festina team and did reasonably well over the past week, a sixteenth and fifteenth place. Can he remain consistent here as well?
Anderberg and Sanogo are leaders for Aker and ISA respectively. They and their teams can go into this race without expectations.
This leaves two teams without any rider mentioned so far. EA Vesuvio brings Centrone, a rider who will hang on for some time but should have no illusions regarding a top classification. Indosat thinks cobblestones are the work of the devil and brings a team which will be wiped out before Arenberg. Poor Gani finally gets a leadership role only for it to be in a race where he cannot do anything.
Since this is France, you can never rule out strikes. Some angry farmers might block the cobblestone sectors with their tractors, resulting in reroute over regular roads and a likely mass sprint. In that case, Bewley and Kristoff are still favorites, but it also brings someone like Petit in the picture. Wildcard Adastra even brings a full sprint train with Kristoff, Drapac, Lander and Stauff. The manager might know something we don't.
Hopefully this has brought you up to speed with everything you need to know about Paris - Roubaix 2020! Who will win? Who will take a podium? Who will surprise? Who will disappoint? How many riders will finish the race? Will there be drama? Stick around to find out!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 27-02-2021 00:15
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-01-2021 16:01
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Great preview!
Historically, Gerts has somehow been better here than in Flanders so let's hope it stays that way this year as well 
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 05-01-2021 16:10
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Great job, as always!
I guess Bewley's chances should be even better here than in Flanders, with the flatter profile making for higher chances of a sprint. But everyone was too tired to sprint a week ago, so let's see how this one works out. The double for Summerhill would be amazing - and I'd love to see Wisniowski breaking the "rainbow curse", too - so I'll enjoy it anyway 
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-01-2021 16:25
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Loved this preview. Thanks for covering the race!
Dont think i have a lot to say. Dream would be a podium but i know the realistic target is 4-6. 7-10 is also good if we can get another good depth performance. Im excited for this
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-01-2021 16:27
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Thanks for the nice preview!
Hate to say it, but I'm bracing myself for another disappointment here, with how below par Theuns has been in the cobbled races that actually suited him. Hard to imagine he'll match last year's 6th place tbh.
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-01-2021 17:55
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It would be amazing if Karatzios somehow could manage a top 20 here aswell, but I cannot see it happen tbh. Had Kortsidakis still been within the team then it would maybe be realistic as he could be kept out of danger for a fair bit of the race, but all alone? Fingers are crossed, but I would be very surprised if he get's another good result. Would be much appreciated though!
Good luck guys.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 05-01-2021 18:05
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We need a good one here Stallaert!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 05-01-2021 19:20
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Lovely preview. Hadn't thought about it before, but could it be a rainbow curse? I surely hope not! I'd say this is the biggest race for us as a team. Personally I prefer Flanders, but we are way more suited to Roubaix. Hoping for some good daily form and a Grieg team that takes control from the start. Fingers crossed for a good result!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 05-01-2021 20:17
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Basically the only cobble race Sibilla has any chance of doing semi-decently because of basically no hills, so Im hoping he can pull out a miracle here. Obviously not going to win, but a Top 5 or 10 could realistically save our season, as our worst terrain.
Great looking preview as well.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 06-01-2021 05:39
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Come on Tinkoff!
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 06-01-2021 09:10
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It's crucial that Teunissen delivers a top 10 here. But compared to E3 this field is stacked, so it will actually be a challenge. Please don't get caught sleeping like in Vlaanderen, Mike.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 06-01-2021 10:59
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Great preview! I'm happy to be represented with Kasperkiewicz in the outside eight. I hope he has a better day than at RVV. Also nice to see two more of my team in the longshot twenty-one. Although I feel like Darbinyan has a better chance to do well than my two sprinters who need probably less cobbles to have a chance. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 15:12
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I hope Declerq's actually motivated by our reactions to his recent races, I'm just showing him there's a significant chance this will be his last Roubaix ever if he doesn't manage to step up his game. 
I hope one of Cavagna or Meiler can join a large mid-race break to get into the Top 50, particularly Cavagna should like PR with his great flat and STA/RES stats.
Although, maybe RĂ©mi should start taking it easy now if I want to renew him at 50k.
Obviously, I'm rooting for another PCT victory here again.
Thanks for the great preview!
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 06-01-2021 20:41
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Wow, what a great attack by Blythe, after a pretty active race anyway!
Bewley somehow lacks the killer instinct after his decline, attacking at all the wrong places as he already did in Flanders. But in the end, the three best sprinters took the podium - bummer for Wisniowski and Summerhill for sure.
Thanks for a stellar report, and congrats to Evonik who start the month in the best possible way!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 20:48
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Huge result for Blyte there. Congrats.
Gerts looked quite good in the final corner but in the end I guess his legs were just empty. Still, 8th is a very good result. Now to continue the top 10 in classics in the Ardennes
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| SotD |
Posted on 06-01-2021 20:55
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Well if I wanted to win the PT that surely was the nail in the coffin. Evonik absolutely smashing it this season!
17th was good from Karatzios btw. He’s doing it every bit as good as Maxime Daniel did last season.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 21:14
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13th from Sibilla. Great ride. This was basically the only race I kept him for, so Im glad it wasn't as poor as the other cobble races. Saya with a 22nd as well means we are not the worst scoring team here, which is always good.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 06-01-2021 21:28
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No hurt feelings, the WT guys deserve to have all their points and I'm happy to have been again an important part of the game!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 06-01-2021 21:39
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Not good enough, the group just ahead fighting for 14th-25th would've been the place for Declerq to be.
Nothing of note from our youngsters either.
Congrats to Adam Bakari! I'm always happy to see a former rider win big stuff.
And thanks for the report Marco.
Edited by cio93 on 06-01-2021 21:48
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| redordead |
Posted on 06-01-2021 21:43
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Evonik doing the business 
Great result also by David Per
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej PogaÄŤar
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