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Paris - Roubaix Discussion
Marcovdw
Paris - Roubaix


History

YearWinnerTeam
2019Lukasz WisniowskiGrieg - Maersk
2018Sam BewleyMoser - Sygic
2017Sam BewleyMoser - Sygic
2016Sam BewleyBecherovka - Petrof
2015Sam BewleyBecherovka - Petrof
2014Sam BewleyBecherovka - Kiwibank
2013Sam BewleyMilka - AVG
2012Tom BoonenNestlé Cycling Team
2011Tom BoonenWarner Brothers - Carrefour
2010Marcus BurghardtWikipedia
2009Tom BoonenWarner Brothers
2008Fabian CancellaraAccumalux
2007Tom BoonenQuick Step - Innergetic


We commence the month of April, which is notable for two big events in cycling. On the third of April, the first Grand Tour of the year will start in Italy, but on the first of April (no joke) we have the third monument of the year: Paris - Roubaix. Held a week after the second monument, Ronde van Vlaanderen, it is the joint-most important race for the classic specialists. In the past thirteen editions, only five riders managed to celebrate in the VĂ©lodrome. Lukasz Wisniowski took his first win last time, ending a six-year streak from record holder Sam Bewley. The only other rider to have won the race more than once is Tom Boonen, four times between 2007 and 2012, interrupted by Fabian Cancellara in 2008 and Marcus Burghardt in 2010. Will Wisniowski start a streak of his own? Will Bewley strike back for his seventh? Or will we see a sixth different winner?

Profile

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/profiles/ptm_rou.jpg


Despite the race being called Paris - Roubaix, the start is actually in Saint-Quentin, 130 kilometer above Paris. The first eighty-five kilometer are wide asphalt roads, but then the carnage starts. The riders have to cross 29 cobblestone sectors, with three sectors of the highest difficulty: Trouée d'Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévele and Le Carrefour de l'Arbre. The arrival city is not a lie, as the riders finish at the vélodrome in Roubaix. A full list of cobblestone sectors can be found below:

#SectorKMLengthDifficulty
29Place de l'HĂ´tel de Ville de Saint-Quentin4.00.8****
28Troisvilles - Viesly87.74.5***
27Viesly - Quiévy93.61.8****
26Quiévy - Saint-Python96.43.7****
25Saint-Python101.11.5***
24Saint-Martin-sur-Ecaillon - Vertain108.62.4**
23Quérénaing - Artres120.21.1***
22Artres - Préseau122.71.9**
21Préseau - Famars126.13.4***
20Maing - Monchaux-sur-Ecaillon133.41.8***
19Haveluy - Wallers145.52.5****
18Trouée d'Arenberg153.12.5*****
17Wallers - HĂ©lesmes159.71.9***
16Hornaing - Wandignies166.53.6****
15Warlaing - Brillon174.32.6***
14Tilloy - Sars-et-Rosières177.52.3****
13Beuvry-la-ForĂŞt - Orchies183.91.4***
12Orchies188.91.7***
11Auchy-les-Orchies - Bersée194.62.8****
10Mons-en-PĂ©vele202.12.8*****
9Cappelle-en-PĂ©vele - La Poissonnerie206.81.6***
8Pont-Thibault - Ennevelin213.71.4**
7Cysoing - Bourghelles226.11.4***
6Bourghelles - Wannehain228.31.2***
5Champin-en-PĂ©vele233.11.9****
4Le Carrefour de l'Arbre235.82.0*****
3Gruson238.51.1**
2Chéreng - Château d'Hem243.23.3***
1Roubaix251.10.3***


Startlist

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Reports/GTM/Roubaix/startlist.jpg


If you're looking for a in-depth preview of everyone's season so far, I'd refer you to the Ronde van Vlaanderen preview made by Fabianski, who lays it out perfectly for you! As the startlists are almost identical, why do the work twice? This preview will only add previous results in Paris - Roubaix as well as this year's results from RVV, E3 and/or KBK if the rider participated there. The only big differences between the two races are the profile, which is flatter here in France, and a change of wildcard from Popo4Ever to Adastra, meaning certain winner Bakari will not participate. The race is therefore wide open!

Big ThreeCOBSPACCFLSTARES
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski837376807576
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Bewley828282777775
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Summerhill837073787672


If you could place a bet for which three riders would finish on the podium, withholding the exact order, then this should be the safest bet.

It is only fair to start at the reigning and defending champion, the champion of the woooooooooooooooooorld: pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Lukasz Wisniowski. Will he be able to start a domination streak like the man he beat the year before? He ended up in second place in Ronde van Vlaanderen, but did not participate in the E3 Prijs or Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne. He appears to be struck by the rainbow curse, as he hasn't managed to win anything in his World Champions jersey this season. This would be one hell of a place to turn it around though. There is someone who won in that jersey before, Bewley in 2016.

It's not fair to refer to pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Sam Bewley as has been after his defeat. Pulling another six victories in a row would be difficult, he'd be 38 by the time he achieved that, but there is surely enough left in the tank to go for a seventh victory, especially if there is a group finish. The last time he finished outside the top four (his position last season) was 2010, when he only finished thirteenth. He finished third in Ronde van Vlaanderen this year, behind the other two in this section, meaning it could be the first season since 2012 where he doesn't win a monument. He did win the E3 Prijs, although the other two were absent there.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Danny Summerhill already has his big win, last week's Ronde van Vlaanderen. The last rider to win the double was, who else but, Bewley in 2017. The organizers rightly gave a wildcard to Andorra for this race as well. He's been the dominant force in the cobblestones so far, both at his usual PCT level and when taking it up against the PT. I was going to write that he won every cobblestone race he participated in but then he blew it Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne, finishing a historically low fourth. Looking at his results in this race, he finished runner-up last year, and third in 2013, so the top step of the podium is left to complete the collection.

Contending FiveCOBSPACCFLSTARES
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Spengler836170747273
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Blythe827673767671
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Senechal826974757974
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Kamyshev826660778175
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Stallaert817976777668


Not every race goes to the expected names. It is cycling after all, anything can happen!

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Lukas Spengler is a match to the big three on the cobblestones, that much is certain. His problems lie in other departments, which is why he never could put his mark on this race. His only top 30 came in 2018, when he finished 22nd. However, it is rumored he has trained a lot during the winter with this race specifically in mind. Given he took a career-best twelfth in Ronde, he is surely capable of improving his position here as well.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Adam Blythe finished fourth behind the big three in Ronde van Vlaanderen. His best ever finish in this race is also fourth, but the old saying* goes: where two dogs fight for a leg, the third one goes with it, except we need to modify it to where three dogs fight for a leg, the fourth one goes with it. On the other hand, he looked weak in E3 where he was beaten in a sprint for fifth by 'my grandma accelerates faster' Zepuntke, while he is normally one of the few to get close to Bewley.

* A severe case of 'Make that the cat wise', a literal translation of a Dutch proverb.

A familiar name in the top ten is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Florian Senechal, finishing there in every edition since 2015 with a best result of second in 2017. Judging by his recent results, tenth in Ronde and seventh in E3, he is more than capable of finishing amongst the first ten again. He's been close to winning so often, so at one point things have to fall his way, right?

He'd have to compete with pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Arman Kamyshev for team leadership. The Kazakh had the better week, ninth in Ronde and second in E3, but unlike the Frenchman he has never cracked a top ten in this race, a best result of thirteenth in 2018. Assuming neither will receive outright leadership from the manager, they could use this partnership to full advantage by alternating attacks, and hoping one of them will cross the line first and take the cobblestone home.

One of the few to challenge Bewley in a sprint to the line is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Joeri Stallaert. If he is in the front group entering the vélodrome, watch out for the Belgian! The only time he ever was in the front group was 2018, where he finished second behind you-know-who. In the recent RvV he finished fifth, losing to Blythe in the sprint for fourth. He could take his ultimate revenge over both nemeses by beating them in a sprint here.

Outside EightCOBSPACCFLSTARES
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Vanspeybrouck816668757770
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Teunissen816769767773
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Sibilla816664717268
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png Gerts807270777680
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Theuns807776727673
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Pedersen797877777880
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Per797474797475
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png Kasperkiewicz795966747375


The riders in this section are not expected to win or stand on the podium, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise either.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Vanspeybrouck is Summerhill's lieutenant. Given how the American's season is going, it is unlikely the Belgian will even try to take leadership, even though he finished two places ahead of him in the most recent race, second versus fourth in KBK. It is not unthinkable though that he will finish in the top ten while helping his leader. And who knows, if misfortune strikes Summerhill on Carrefour de l'Arbre, will he wait or rebel?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Teunissen's season is hardly going well. Eleventh in Vlaanderen at four minutes, and ninth in E3 at three-and-a-half minutes. However, he did keep Bewley from a podium in the last edition, which surely should give him a boost in morale for this race specifically.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Sibilla is perhaps a case of past glory. A regular top fifteen finisher at the start of the decade, and nineteenth in 2018. If we look at his last week, we should probably take him out of this list. Twenty-eighth and twenty-third are not really results to write home about.

A rider who is definitely more suited to Vlaanderen than Roubaix is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png Gerts, as he is one of the few to really like climbing. While there is a bit of elevation, it is likely not going to be a factor in the results. Hence we should judge him by the recent results in this race, tenth in the previous edition and eleventh the year before. A similar position is expected but you can always gun for more.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Theuns is another rider who wants this race to go to a sprint. He beat Blythe in the sprint for sixth last time out, and his eighth place in Vlaanderen suggest the form is also good.

One of the hottest targets on the transfer market was pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Pedersen, negotiating his way to a wage of more than a million. It is rather an investment in the future as he can learn from Wisniowski, whom he helped to victory last year and finished twenty-fifth himself. This year he should be closer to the front.

There is a Slovenian everywhere and this race is no exception. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Per took seventh last week in RVV and had a midweek podium visit in E3. His twenty-third place last year in this very race was a good reconnaissance, he is still young and should work his way up the tables.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png Kasperkiewicz changed from Netia to King Power and can finally play with the big boys. Twentieth in Ronde van Vlaanderen was a cold welcome to the world of monuments, but luckily there is another chance for him here.

Wildcard Thirteen COBSPACCFLSTARES
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Sulimov796571737771
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png Fenn797069727571
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Zubov796169687069
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Machado796261697267
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Polanc786775727873
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png David787073747674
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Ringheim787375727571
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Gaday787173717572
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Neilands787167777473
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png Lampaert786061757473
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/aeg.png Van Hooydonck786172717372
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afk.png Puccio786055727671
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Kristoff778277747369


At this point in the preview, we're looking at riders happy at a top ten as most of them are helpers to a bigger leader anyway.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Sulimov finished fifth in 2017, but he is only the third in the Tinkoff order of precedence and will likely be delegated to chasing after other riders. However, he did finish eleventh in E3 Prijs. A similar story for pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Zubov who might be leader in another team but is paid well to fetch bottles here.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png Fenn also boasts some decent past results, seventh in 2017 and multiple placings in the top fifteen. A fourteenth place is Vlaanderen was an expected result, he should aim for something similar here.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Machado's goal in this race will be helping Summerhill and Vanspeybrouck, and by the fact the Frenchman never finished top thirty here and finished in a disastrous fifty-fifth place on the other side of the border, it will not be any more than that.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Polanc finished fourth in E3 Prijs in a tandem with Per who finished one position ahead of him. Perhaps the other teams have taken notice of this tactic and won't let them get away so easily. His bronze medal in the World Championship also solidifies his status as a rider capable of handling cobblestones.

A rider who does lead his team is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png David. His twelfth place last season can be considered good. His thirty-third in Ronde last week? Not so much. Hopefully it's more of the former for the New Zealander in the Australian team.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/aeg.png Van Hooydonck leads for Aegon, and his results this season are even more disappointing. Forty-second in Ronde van Vlaanderen and thirty-first in E3 Prijs, perhaps not feeling the pressure in his home country might bring him closer to the top.

It could even be worse, as pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afk.png Puccio finished fifty-sixth in Ronde. On the other hand, E3 Prijs went much better with thirteenth place. Continuing the trend he should finish minus thirtieth. That's impossible of course, but let's hope the number doesn't go down again.

Perhaps the most important name in this category is the one worst on the cobblestones, but pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Kristoff is by no means a slouch. His main strength is his sprint, and might be the only one who can beat Bewley in equal circumstances. He already finished on the podium two years ago, the only time he was present in the front group at the end. Get there again and the sky is the limit!

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Ringheim, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Gaday, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Neilands and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png Lampaert all have a rider in their team with better chances. They could all finish top twenty and make the manager happy with depth points, but the race situation might require sacrifices to help their leader achieve an even higher position.

Longshot Twenty-OneCOBSPACCFLSTARES
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pum.png Declerq776767747371
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Bohli777468747975
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Kuroeda777478747273
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Karatzios776365777571
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Boros776466737369
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Kosic775964727470
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Grand776565727470
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Eeckhout776457727171
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Anderberg766073767575
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png Sanogo766970737172
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png Petit728078767672
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Drapac648079717065
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Lander737977777772
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png Hsu727979757570
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png Afewerki697980737770
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Stauff647979737267
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png Harrison737881727370
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png Jakobsen727878727372
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png Cullaigh717879717169
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png Centrone745358727066
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Gani677476747573


I'm not confident enough to say I'll eat my shoe if one of these riders wins, but none of these riders will win.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pum.png Declerq has already been transfer-listed by his manager which surely damages his morale. Could he prove his manager made a rash decision or does another mediocre result in instant sacking? Get a camera crew to Puma for some good television in that case.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Karatzios leads the Festina team and did reasonably well over the past week, a sixteenth and fifteenth place. Can he remain consistent here as well?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Anderberg and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png Sanogo are leaders for Aker and ISA respectively. They and their teams can go into this race without expectations.

This leaves two teams without any rider mentioned so far. EA Vesuvio brings pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png Centrone, a rider who will hang on for some time but should have no illusions regarding a top classification. Indosat thinks cobblestones are the work of the devil and brings a team which will be wiped out before Arenberg. Poor pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Gani finally gets a leadership role only for it to be in a race where he cannot do anything.

Since this is France, you can never rule out strikes. Some angry farmers might block the cobblestone sectors with their tractors, resulting in reroute over regular roads and a likely mass sprint. In that case, Bewley and Kristoff are still favorites, but it also brings someone like pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png Petit in the picture. Wildcard Adastra even brings a full sprint train with Kristoff, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Drapac, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Lander and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Stauff. The manager might know something we don't.

Hopefully this has brought you up to speed with everything you need to know about Paris - Roubaix 2020! Who will win? Who will take a podium? Who will surprise? Who will disappoint? How many riders will finish the race? Will there be drama? Stick around to find out!
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alexkr00
Great preview!

Historically, Gerts has somehow been better here than in Flanders so let's hope it stays that way this year as well Smile
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Fabianski
Great job, as always!

I guess Bewley's chances should be even better here than in Flanders, with the flatter profile making for higher chances of a sprint. But everyone was too tired to sprint a week ago, so let's see how this one works out. The double for Summerhill would be amazing - and I'd love to see Wisniowski breaking the "rainbow curse", too - so I'll enjoy it anyway Grin
 
knockout
Loved this preview. Thanks for covering the race!

Dont think i have a lot to say. Dream would be a podium but i know the realistic target is 4-6. 7-10 is also good if we can get another good depth performance. Im excited for this Grin
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


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matt17br
Thanks for the nice preview!

Hate to say it, but I'm bracing myself for another disappointment here, with how below par Theuns has been in the cobbled races that actually suited him. Hard to imagine he'll match last year's 6th place tbh.
Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png
 
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SotD
It would be amazing if Karatzios somehow could manage a top 20 here aswell, but I cannot see it happen tbh. Had Kortsidakis still been within the team then it would maybe be realistic as he could be kept out of danger for a fair bit of the race, but all alone? Fingers are crossed, but I would be very surprised if he get's another good result. Would be much appreciated though!

Good luck guys.
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viking90
We need a good one here Stallaert!
 
tastasol
Lovely preview. Hadn't thought about it before, but could it be a rainbow curse? I surely hope not! I'd say this is the biggest race for us as a team. Personally I prefer Flanders, but we are way more suited to Roubaix. Hoping for some good daily form and a Grieg team that takes control from the start. Fingers crossed for a good result!
 
valverde321
Basically the only cobble race Sibilla has any chance of doing semi-decently because of basically no hills, so Im hoping he can pull out a miracle here. Obviously not going to win, but a Top 5 or 10 could realistically save our season, as our worst terrain.

Great looking preview as well.
 
OlegTinkov
Come on Tinkoff!
 
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DubbelDekker
It's crucial that Teunissen delivers a top 10 here. But compared to E3 this field is stacked, so it will actually be a challenge. Please don't get caught sleeping like in Vlaanderen, Mike.
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Bikex
Great preview! I'm happy to be represented with Kasperkiewicz in the outside eight. I hope he has a better day than at RVV. Also nice to see two more of my team in the longshot twenty-one. Although I feel like Darbinyan has a better chance to do well than my two sprinters who need probably less cobbles to have a chance. Smile
 
cio93
I hope Declerq's actually motivated by our reactions to his recent races, I'm just showing him there's a significant chance this will be his last Roubaix ever if he doesn't manage to step up his game. Pfft

I hope one of Cavagna or Meiler can join a large mid-race break to get into the Top 50, particularly Cavagna should like PR with his great flat and STA/RES stats.
Although, maybe RĂ©mi should start taking it easy now if I want to renew him at 50k. Grin


Obviously, I'm rooting for another PCT victory here again.
Thanks for the great preview!
 
Fabianski
Wow, what a great attack by Blythe, after a pretty active race anyway!
Bewley somehow lacks the killer instinct after his decline, attacking at all the wrong places as he already did in Flanders. But in the end, the three best sprinters took the podium - bummer for Wisniowski and Summerhill for sure.

Thanks for a stellar report, and congrats to Evonik who start the month in the best possible way!
 
alexkr00
Huge result for Blyte there. Congrats.

Gerts looked quite good in the final corner but in the end I guess his legs were just empty. Still, 8th is a very good result. Now to continue the top 10 in classics in the Ardennes Pfft
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SotD
Well if I wanted to win the PT that surely was the nail in the coffin. Evonik absolutely smashing it this season!

17th was good from Karatzios btw. He’s doing it every bit as good as Maxime Daniel did last season.
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valverde321
13th from Sibilla. Great ride. This was basically the only race I kept him for, so Im glad it wasn't as poor as the other cobble races. Saya with a 22nd as well means we are not the worst scoring team here, which is always good.
 
Yellow Jersey
No hurt feelings, the WT guys deserve to have all their points and I'm happy to have been again an important part of the game!
 
cio93
Not good enough, the group just ahead fighting for 14th-25th would've been the place for Declerq to be.
Nothing of note from our youngsters either.


Congrats to Adam Bakari! Pfft I'm always happy to see a former rider win big stuff.
And thanks for the report Marco.
Edited by cio93 on 06-01-2021 21:48
 
redordead
Evonik doing the business Banana

Great result also by David Per Smile



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"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej PogaÄŤar
 
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