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Tour of Northern Europe Discussion
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 01-03-2017 20:47
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If  Cancellara has a race, this is it, given the Swiss rider has three wins and two other podiums, he’s old and in the PCT this year though, so isn’t attending. This could lend 2013 winner  Coppel a chance. However he will have a rough time on the cobbled stage 4.
Perhaps it’s time for a new winner then, in the race of rough, winding roads, strong winds and long transitions (the riders will love the ferry up to Norway from the Netherlands, or the flight to the final stage in Latvia). The first stage is a memorable cobbled team time trial, point one to the strong teams, although whether or not it'll suit the cobble squads, time trial teams or a proper mix is anybody's guess. There’s a Belgian-Dutch hilly stage and a further one in Norway for the puncheurs and a contrasting cobbled stage, where the most decisive sections will actually be in France, including the Trouée d'Arenberg. On top of that stage 5 in the Netherlands will punish the classics riders with an individual time trial.
With such a varied route, every man will have to go up against his weakness, so who’s best suited to win this race?
Favourites: | Cobblists | CB | Hl | TT | FL | Cobblists | CB | Hl | TT | FL |  Burghardt | 83 | 71 | 63 | 78 |  Fenn | 79 | 61 | 63 | 72 |  Van Avermaet | 82 | 76 | 61 | 78 | David | 78 | 75 | 65 | 74 |  Vanspeybrouck | 82 | 71 | 62 | 76 | Van Keirsbulck | 78 | 71 | 51 | 72 |  Blythe | 82 | 66 | 68 | 76 |  Gusev | 78 | 70 | 73 | 76 | | Senechal | 82 | 66 | 65 | 75 |  Albert | 78 | 69 | 57 | 75 |  Kamyshev | 82 | 65 | 65 | 77 |  Kristoff | 78 | 68 | 68 | 75 |  Altur | 80 | 70 | 63 | 75 |  Vandenbergh | 78 | 67 | 68 | 76 |  Vanbilsen | 80 | 69 | 63 | 78 | Ringheim | 78 | 67 | 66 | 72 | | Nolf | 80 | 66 | 64 | 74 | Puccio | 78 | 66 | 61 | 72 |  Vanmarcke | 80 | 66 | 62 | 76 |  Lampaert | 78 | 66 | 56 | 75 |  Trentin | 79 | 74 | 61 | 74 |  Veelers | 78 | 64 | 70 | 74 | | Daniel | 79 | 69 | 56 | 73 | | | | | |
| Puncheurs | Hl | CB | TT | FL | Time-Trialists | TT | CB | Hl | FL | | Claeys | 83 | 64 | 64 | 73 | Coppel | 83 | 54 | 76 | 77 | | Kelderman | 82 | 62 | 70 | 70 | Vlatos | 81 | 68 | 64 | 72 | | Schreurs | 81 | 62 | 66 | 70 | Kittel | 81 | 57 | 64 | 75 | | Lutsenko | 80 | 54 | 68 | 69 | Ford | 81 | 59 | 55 | 63 |  Pichon | 79 | 60 | 64 | 71 | Viennet | 80 | 59 | 67 | 72 | | Juul-Jensen | 78 | 70 | 67 | 73 | Sütterlin | 80 | 56 | 65 | 71 | | Kwiatkowski | 78 | 68 | 70 | 72 |  Martin | 79 | 57 | 72 | 74 | | Edmondson | 78 | 54 | 64 | 70 | Malori | 79 | 58 | 68 | 78 | | Dyrnes | 78 | 54 | 61 | 68 | Hepburn | 79 | 60 | 66 | 71 | | Meyer | 78 | 53 | 69 | 74 | Vorobev | 79 | 50 | 65 | 75 |  Mohoric | 78 | 50 | 63 | 71 | Dempster | 79 | 60 | 64 | 74 | | Schleck | 77 | 50 | 64 | 66 | Mottin | 79 | 54 | 61 | 69 | | Tsatevich | 77 | 75 | 60 | 74 | Olman | 79 | 52 | 57 | 68 | | Venter | 77 | 50 | 60 | 70 |  Boom | 78 | 74 | 75 | 75 |
Cobblists
Of the Cobble specialists, not many can back it up on the hills and time – trials, Van Avermaet is one of the first names to mention, given he can back it up on the hills, although hard to predict how the strong cobblist/weak time-tralists behind will go well in the opener and he’ll lose a chunk of time in the ITT.
Burghardt, the premier cobblist in the race is decent in the hills and the Aussie’s behind him will be able to give him a gain in the TTT, but he will also have to hope for a very decisive stage 4 if he wants to win this race.
Vanspeybrouck is in the same boat as Burghardt, except less time-trialists behind him. Blythe is the best time-trialist of the pure cobblists, but even he is lacking in that discipline and he can’t climb on the same level as the other cobblists.
Other top cobble specialists include Kamyshev and Senechal but both are roughly equally mediocre time-trialists and puncheurs. David is also worth a mention because of the amount of time the Festina team can potentially make in the TTT, as well as Gusev, one of the few cobblists who can actually ride a time trial.
Puncheurs:
Claeys is the fastest up the steep slopes here but he can’t cobble or time trial for his life, still will be a shot for the two hilly stage wins or a race in support of Vanspeybrouck. Schreurs and Lutsenko are similar options to the Belgian, as both lack the diversity for the general classification.
Kelderman is a more GC orientated threat, given his decent time-trialing and back-ups but still a rough ride on stage 1 and 4 to upset the Dutchman’s hopes.
Juul-Jensen is a decent enough cobbles rider and he can time trial, so should the race be decided in the hills he may actually be one of the biggest favourites, even if he isn’t the top puncheur. In fact, of the puncheurs, better than Van Avermaet , Tsatevich is the best cobblist and gives another surprise option if he suffers enough in the ITT.
Time-Trialists:
Former winner French time trial champion Coppel is easily the best time-trialist, he can punch decently in the hills and his team is one of the favourites for stage 1, but he’s one of the many names who will not enjoy his home nation’s cobbled contribution to this race. His teammate Vlatos is one of the next best time-trialists and he may suffer slightly less in the cobbles but getting himself up the hills will be his challenge.
Kittel, Ford, Viennet and Sütterlin are the other contenders for the time trial but they all have various levels of incapability in the cobbles and hills.
All-Rounder Boom is probably favourite not for his strength but given he’s probably the only rider who doesn’t have a specific day where he’ll have to suffer given he’s all-round capabilities, allowing him to be one of the major favourites.
Of course this is just a handful of the riders who can win this race, given it just takes 1 or 2 good days on adverse terrain for an outsider to go to full-on favourite.
Sprinters: | Sprinters | SP | ACC | FL | Sprinters | SP | ACC | FL |  Degenkolb | 84 | 81 | 76 | Van Asbroeck | 80 | 78 | 75 | | Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 75 | Groenewegen | 80 | 79 | 71 | | Mohs | 83 | 82 | 75 |  Vesely | 80 | 80 | 73 | | Howard | 82 | 79 | 76 | Farrar | 79 | 77 | 72 |  Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 77 | Chen | 79 | 78 | 74 | | Tzortzakis | 82 | 79 | 74 | Rowe | 79 | 80 | 78 |  Grosu | 81 | 80 | 73 | Saber | 79 | 77 | 73 | | Holloway | 80 | 82 | 78 | Stallaert | 79 | 76 | 77 | | Van Poppel | 80 | 78 | 72 | Havik | 79 | 76 | 73 | | Van der Lijke | 80 | 79 | 73 | | | | |
Three sprint stages, 1 in Luxembourg, 1 in Norway and the final day in Estonia, Degenkolb with a great lead-out in Mohs is a pretty convincing claim to all three wins, but there is a strong field here to prevent that.
Kristoff could contend the cobbled stage and probably the GC to, but if he saves the energy, he’ll be one of the best sprinters to challenge the Germans. The rest of the sprinter field is very large too, Howard, Kennaugh, Tzortzakis, Grosu and Holloway are near the top of a very long list, meaning we might see some very open flat stages.
Startlist
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| roturn |
Posted on 01-03-2017 20:51
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Boom probably started in this race 3 times. Was 4th, 3rd and then 2nd.
Quite obvious, what is supposed to happen next. 
He was 2nd the only time, he raced with my team actually.
My main concern is that PCM goes weird and makes him work for Nooytens. But in theory he should do well here. Podium would be awesome. Top5 actually wanted as his 3 runs here clearly show he is capable of that. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-03-2017 20:54
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Probably the last race of the season where we can get some decent points. Sinkeldam or Van der Velde... I don't care, I just want a top 10.
It will also be interesting to see how Gerts does in his first ToNE. It should be one of his races in the future.
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| SotD |
Posted on 01-03-2017 21:09
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This race is always very difficult to predict, hence so many different type of riders are present.
Our chances can be either good or bad depending on who is leading the team and how hard the stages are. We deliberately left Koretzky and the other puncheurs at home in order to give room for David and Coppel, but if nothing else works atleast we can fight for a few stage results here and there.
The TTT is exciting, but I dont like my odds having a horrible cobble setup.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 01-03-2017 21:12
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Potentially the least predictable of all races, therefore always one of the most interesting ones. The cobbled TTT just adds to that.
We've brought a couple of pure TTers in Sütterlin, van Baarle and Bevin along with our main cobbles squad Blythe/Daniel/Weber/Declerq, and the dark horse Kelderman.
I hope that balance provides us with a good opening result. According to the Baltic Chain prologues, cobbles in TTs favor the cobblers, altough it's probably not long enough and not enough of a sample size to draw conclusions from.
After that, we need to make a decision regarding leadership. I hope the game supports both Kelderman for the stage win on stage 3 and Blythe to preserve his GC chances, as well as the other way round one day later.
Then it depends on how much Kelderman loses on the cobbles vs how much Blythe loses in the hills. The TT later on could help as both are the respectively best TTers among the top cobblers and puncheurs.
Last year, Blythe finished 9th and the best puncheurs were in the Top 15-20 region. I guess I could live with such a result again.
Furthermore, finishing in the top 5 of all 3 selective stages should be the clear goal. Kelderman has only 3 riders to really worry about, and Blythe got second on the cobbles last year. Maybe Sütterlin can add a fourth good stage result to that.
No Bewley here is interesting, I fear GvA is the favorite together with Boom, which doesn't bode well for our chances of ending up as best promoted team.
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| ember |
Posted on 01-03-2017 21:31
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Very nice and in-depth preview, thank you trekbmc!
Expect us to suffer heavily in the opening TTT with our fifth best cobbler at 66. Though, when I think about it, it doesn't sound that bad, but it's still a TTT, where we generally shouldn't be competitive
In general I don't have high expectations for this one, even with Kristoff on paper being one of the most interesting riders. Fingers crossed he can turn up for the sprints, I would love to see us try to build a train. If we can manage that on a couple of stages, the placings and GC points don't matter much, as it would just be a great satisfaction to see us have a go at it. |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 01-03-2017 22:04
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This race was my favourite to follow as a reporter last year, and the route looks just as brutal this year if not even more, thanks to that cobbled TTT opener.
No standout favourite like Cancellara last year, who ended up winning it all thanks to consistency, but I'd say it's Van Avermaet who could come here with the odds' favours. It's going to be really close again, though, so I'm looking forward to follow this.
Excellent preview trek!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 01:18
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| tastasol |
Posted on 01-03-2017 22:06
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A home race, and a race I've been really looking forward to. Trentin and Juul-Jensen could both do good, but my biggest hope is Wisniowski. With his allround skills he could do very good here. Very nervous to see how the TTT works out. I've brought our good cobblers, and some TT guys, just remains to see how it will work out.
Nice preview, Trek 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 01-03-2017 22:43
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Let's continue our good show in the wildcard races. I don't think any race organisers regretted inviting us yet 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Roman |
Posted on 01-03-2017 22:48
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When seeing this startlist, I definitely made some big mistakes during planning of this season. No Bewley here instead of TdF is probably the biggest one. No Howard in Colombia was another, etc. I can't see us having a good race here, really. At this point it is going to be really hard for us to keep a podium place overall.
Nice preview trek! GVA to win.
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 02-03-2017 00:32
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Hoping Houle can do a similar performance to 5 jours and possible sneak a nice GC place and then Pichon maybe have an okay hilly stage or too but the rest of the guys are filler |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 02-03-2017 06:10
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Very good preview trekbmc, with 2 cobblers and 4 time trailers to support Gusev I hope for a good result in the opening stage, but honestly I've no idea what to expect from a PCM cobbled team time trial.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 02-03-2017 07:38
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Got a strong squad here but nobody really versatile enough for a GC bid. Hoping for stage wins I guess.
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-03-2017 10:31
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Roman wrote:
When seeing this startlist, I definitely made some big mistakes during planning of this season. No Bewley here instead of TdF is probably the biggest one. No Howard in Colombia was another, etc. I can't see us having a good race here, really. At this point it is going to be really hard for us to keep a podium place overall.
Nice preview trek! GVA to win.
Well. Tzortzakis scored 20 points or so from Colombia, so I doubt the fact that you did not bring Howard there was that much of a mistake.
The Bewley TdF gamble was always going to be risky in terms of points, but it could have been amazing had he gotten yellow early on.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 02-03-2017 13:21
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Fantastic preview! Van Avermaet could have an absolute domination here if he shows off here on stage 2 already, and then have a big points haul. No teammates to help him should hurt him though...
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| knockout |
Posted on 02-03-2017 16:40
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The biggest race of the season for Evonik and with the finish even on home roads the pressure is high on Greg to deliver. I was pretty sure that he would be the strongest cobbler here so I concentrated my support to cause havoc on the cobbled stage with the hope that it will help in the TTT as well as I reckon cobble stat might be more important than th stat. I don't have any TTer anyway as this is the single interesting TTT for my team all season. The lack of support on the hills might be a risk but I hope that the gaps on the cobbles will be big enough to make him top favourite.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 02-03-2017 16:55
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Our final wildcard race of the year, hopefully the boys will be a bit more active this time around...
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 02-03-2017 18:21
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The return of Kwiatkowski. Hopefully he can grab a decent GC here by taking advantage of the hilly stages, |
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-03-2017 19:37
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Well it turned out to be a cobblers TTT, unsurprisingly. Losing a minute is alright. Both Tom David and Jerome Coppel in the first group is good, I guess. Let's hope the deficit will make them ride aggressively.
Congrats to Pokerstars and Evonik for a great start.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 02-03-2017 19:38
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Well, no idea what happened there, probably had to wait for Kelderman as 5th best cobbler. At least that means he didn't lose additional time.
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Tour of Northern Europe
