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Int. Österreich Rundfahrt Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-02-2017 19:09
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Int. Österreich Rundfahrt
| Category: HC | 8 Stages | full GC tour |  Austria |
Many stage races take place at the beginning of August, and one of those is the Internationale Österreich Rundfahrt. In 8 medium long stages this race goes the opposite way of a typical one-week tour: At first mountanious, than some mixed terrain with hills and a TT and some flat stages to close it out. Hold on, this special terrain could well mean that from stage 3 on all but the TT will go to the breakaway!
There is one of the former winners participating, and he could well join the Top 5 this year again. We are talking about 2015 winner  Janez Brajkovic, defending his jersey in the colours of Novatek-Panarmenian.net.
Looking purely at the mountain stat he should be a man for something in the lower Top 10, but cycling is so much more than pure climbing ability. That's why  Denifl, despite having the oustanding climbing abilities, might not be the biggest favourite. Instead, a wide skillset of abilities is needed. These are the riders that might work those best:
| Mon | Acc | Hil | TT | Sta | Res | Rec | | Stefan Denifl | 84 | 65 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 71 | 76 |  Daniel Martin | 82 | 76 | 77 | 73 | 77 | 78 | 78 |  Thomas Dekker | 82 | 72 | 76 | 79 | 78 | 83 | 81 |  Jonathan Monsalve | 81 | 73 | 76 | 72 | 79 | 80 | 77 |  Alberto Contador | 81 | 68 | 75 | 73 | 74 | 77 | 73 |  Florentino Marquez | 80 | 80 | 71 | 70 | 70 | 78 | 77 |  Fabio Duarte | 80 | 73 | 68 | 75 | 74 | 76 | 78 | | Janez Brajkovic | 80 | 71 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 79 | 79 |  Thibaut Pinot | 80 | 69 | 74 | 65 | 76 | 79 | 75 |  Ryan Eastman | 80 | 69 | 71 | 74 | 76 | 75 | 76 |  Chen Shikai | 80 | 65 | 71 | 76 | 74 | 76 | 78 | | Vadim Ratiy | 80 | 58 | 70 | 74 | 70 | 73 | 76 | | Andrew Talansky | 79 | 69 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 76 | 77 |
The two pre-race favourites beneath local hero Denifl should be Daniel Martin and Thomas Dekker.
Daniel Martin is a guy that will mostly profile himself by strong accelerations and still has the back-ups to hold on to these attacks. A similar rider type, slightly weaker though, is Monsalve. Even more focus on his outstanding acceleration has Marquez, who should be the safest bet for both stage wins and the KOM. But he should lack other skills to really contend the podium in the transition stages.
Another type of rider is Thomas Dekker, maybe the #1 favourite for this tour. Beneath some decent acceleration and a great mountain game he also has that extra strength in the time trialling section, and will work impressive results there. On top, he is the best guy in terms of the powerhouse section for climbers, especially looking at his ability to hold off opponents. The second in this row of riders is Janez Brajkovic. The defending champion is kind of a Dekker-lite-version.
Other riders are contenders for minor Top10s and higher Top20s, but far away from GC material. Instead they should go for stage wins. Pinot lacks a solid accleration besides being one of the guys that will really be hurt by the TT. Contador, Eastman, Shikai and especially Ratiy really lack the acceleration to do so. Especially sad stuff for Bertie, as he has the strongest domestique with Talansky here, who might have better went for himself somewhere else.
Fabio Duarte is a special ask. He could well surprise everybody and achieve a Top5, cause he has everything it takes on a race like this. Besides the hill stat, which will be a problem on the one stage. But if he can hold on there a good position really is possible.
Time Triallists
2 and a half major GC contenders might become the main protagonists in the TT on stage 7: Main favourite Dekker is also the outright favourite for the TT, sidekicked by the two dark horses Brajkovic and Bibby. Also Brändle and  Ivars are chrono guy that can climb well.
They'll battle against the main TT guys that look for some stage glory here only. These are lead by Schädlich and  Viviani, two classy guys that surprisingly appeared here despite the late position in the race. If they are left in the race still also Goncalves, Dumoulin and Quaade could win here.
| TT | Res | Mon | | Spr | Acc | Fla | Hil | | Schädlich | 80 | 71 | 54 |  Appollonio | 81 | 78 | 74 | 66 | | Dekker | 79 | 83 | 82 | Hayakawa | 79 | 79 | 73 | 64 | | Viviani | 79 | 77 | 60 | Bennett | 79 | 79 | 71 | 63 | | Brändle | 79 | 73 | 76 |  Pelucchi | 79 | 77 | 74 | 68 | | Dumoulin | 78 | 76 | 59 | Harrison | 78 | 81 | 72 | 67 | | Goncalves | 78 | 72 | 73 | Hoffman | 78 | 78 | 76 | 68 | | Quaade | 78 | 70 | 54 | Park | 78 | 77 | 70 | 63 | | Brajkovic | 77 | 79 | 80 |  Cisse | 78 | 77 | 74 | 63 | | Bibby | 77 | 74 | 77 | Andriato | 78 | 76 | 71 | 64 |
Sprinters
Many teams sent secondary sprinters here to find some minor points on the flat stages. Not so Vontobel, who sent the by far best sprinter to Austria in Davide Appollonio. Sadly they completely came without a train, which will make life extraordinary hard in the peloton. Cause who should control breakaways?
Maybe some secondary sprint teams. Lierse are full out on Pelucchi, but he also lacks support in his young team. Banc na hÉireann has brought 2 captains and arguably the best sprint train, but who should lead out and who should go for it? Looking at the acceleration stats the line up will most likely be destructive instead of constructive with Harrison and Bennett.
A solid train instead for Meiji, so if a sprint is possible then Hayakawa might have the best functioning leadout. The best possible leadout is the one for Theuns, but it's doubtful that it will really be Beletti, Ratto and Viviani to lead him out cause PCM.
Finally more than one eye on Nolan Hoffman, who constantly uses his superior flat skills to find some results in second-tier sprint races.
Breakaways
This is what it will be all about from stage 3 on, at least in the most likely scenario. Riders with solid allround stats, pretty high flat and especially a great acceleration often do have the best chances on breaking away. 5 bold stage win picks: Rabon, Finetto,  Tulik,  Kireva,  Pszczolarski.
Full startlist:
Edited by Croatia14 on 08-02-2017 20:27
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 08-02-2017 19:14
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World Champion
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Oh good grief, not another stage race. We want cobbles!
Then again, Pelucchi could take a stage win here. Let's roll 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 08-02-2017 19:38
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Sprinter
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Thanks for the preview and reports!
I really hope my team doesn't designate Goncalves the leader like it appears in the startlist. Hopefully Schelling can go top-15 or so and we can do decently in the TT.
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 08-02-2017 19:40
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Another stage race for Duarte to flop at. Just wonderfull. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 22:55
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| matt17br |
Posted on 08-02-2017 19:51
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Viviani has 1 stage to shine in after a far too many mountains, and that's about it 
Every point we can get out of this is important, surviving this stage race is key to head in the final months with a good morale.
Thanks for the preview Croatia, a few tables like the TT one have a few mistakes though! 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 08-02-2017 20:28
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matt17br wrote:
Thanks for the preview Croatia, a few tables like the TT one have a few mistakes though!
Thanks, corrected the TT Table order 
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 08-02-2017 21:02
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Thanks for the great preview, Croatia!
Hoping for a top15 by Cataldo and (obviously) wins by Appollonio. Expect at least Eritel and Lierse helping controlling the breaks on sprint stages.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 08-02-2017 21:47
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World Champion
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Brought my team here with the hope of some great results from Hayakawa and that Shikai can do a solid job on his own more or less. We will see how that turns out!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 09-02-2017 01:11
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That's an impressive preview croatia14, I really enjoyed reading through your comments!
Finally a race where Dekker could bring in some points for our desperate team, please don't miss this opportunity! He will probably be right up there at the mountain stages, and he really have to hang on, cause he needs to be in position before the 24km time trial. So excited to watch this race unfold! |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 09-02-2017 13:20
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Oh look, it's another win goal we won't achieve. Nevertheless, I see some good chances here for Jani, hoping for a top-5, but I guess the most realistic is a bit below that.
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| Heine |
Posted on 10-02-2017 11:36
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Got a good squad here. Hoping for a top 5 and a stage win.
The real goal ofc is for Monsalve to finish above Denifl, if Monsalve finishes 9th it is okay if Denifl finishes 10th!
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 10-02-2017 12:22
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Only one plan here, breaks!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-02-2017 15:30
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AKA doing the two races per day challenge. Interesting way to get XP!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 10-02-2017 16:52
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Grand Tour Champion
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Ah, PCM, you never fail at finding a new surprising way to mess up a race AI 
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 10-02-2017 16:56
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Thanks Croatia
Panayotov expectedly not anywhere near our top 5 goal but the weird mountain sprint keeps him within 30 seconds for now Would be nice to join breaks though, especially as I realised this is Veyhe's first race. Gratz bjarnte!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Heine |
Posted on 10-02-2017 17:43
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Good job by my team, monsalve well placed. Schadlich trying, preidler and brandle soing a good job.
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 10-02-2017 18:50
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That's wow, a much better start to this stage race than I could ever expect. Please hold on to that jersey tomorrow and I think we're in a very good position to win this race, bar any falls or accidents.
Shame we didn't see Dekker sprinting on Champs-Élysées this year
Great reporting croatia! |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 10-02-2017 20:19
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Surprisingly good performance by 75 MO Malacarne, if anything
Dekker fighting for Compal in the best way, he's been having a basically perfect season so far, congrats Bjartne!
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 10-02-2017 21:29
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damn, could have sworn I was in this race, gotta check when I get home in some weeks time why im not here..
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 10-02-2017 22:50
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Well 10th is nice, but kind of a lame stage with a sprint at the end honestly.
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