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Nelspruit Classic Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 05-12-2016 17:10
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Nelspruit Classic
| Category: HC | 202,6 km | terrain: hilly |  South Africa |
Over the South African course, slightly over 200 kilometers long, nearly 3000 meters accumulated heigth are gained. That, in combination with the finish on the 6th time the hill is climbed, means that we have a real hilly classic here. The African PCT Fleche Wallonne?
The whole setting of the course implicits that the final hill should be decicive in most of the cases. The parcour is not selective enough for giving long range attackers many chances, same goes for climbers that like to attack on the steep sections, as long parts of pretty flat roads are part of the run-in. Contrarily, some hot weather conditions or winds could have in influence.
Out of the former winners, nobody came back this season. Froome (2013) and Di Maggio (2014) could be the top favourites again but for some reason didn't show up. Kelderman (2015) and Ginanni (2012) are racing on World Tour level and therefore aren't interested in showing up here again.
There is no doubt though that it will be a race between the best puncheurs, especially the pure puncheurs need to shine here as this is a big opportunity for a hilly drag race where the main stat matters most. That makes it even more surprising to miss the like of McCarthy or di Maggio. Band choices can hurt a lot.
We see a wide spread of favourites, with 9 riders with a stat with 80 or 81:
| Hi | Ac | Fl | Mo | St | Rs | | Hi | Ac | Fl | Mo | St | Rs |  Anuar Aziz | 81 | 71 | 72 | 68 | 78 | 73 |  Barrio | 79 | 67 | 63 | 70 | 69 | 63 |  Kinoshita | 81 | 77 | 73 | 72 | 80 | 77 | Betancourt | 79 | 74 | 69 | 73 | 72 | 71 |  Flügel | 81 | 74 | 69 | 72 | 79 | 67 |  Bilbao | 79 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 77 | 71 |  Roche | 80 | 72 | 72 | 78 | 78 | 75 |  Bystrom | 79 | 76 | 72 | 68 | 75 | 72 |  Ulissi | 80 | 75 | 76 | 66 | 83 | 71 |  Ben Nasser | 79 | 77 | 69 | 69 | 76 | 70 | | Costa | 80 | 72 | 70 | 71 | 73 | 72 |  Schumacher | 79 | 69 | 72 | 66 | 75 | 70 | | Zaini | 80 | 70 | 66 | 66 | 74 | 65 |  Caruso | 78 | 77 | 68 | 69 | 76 | 71 |  Hugenhaben | 80 | 66 | 73 | 77 | 77 | 76 |  Waeytens | 78 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 70 |  Vogt | 80 | 61 | 73 | 62 | 78 | 71 |  Borges | 78 | 81 | 70 | 70 | 75 | 73 |
Out of these 3 riders, the 81ers stand out a little. All of these have excellent support, either in strength ( Anuar Aziz) or depth ( Kinoshita, Flügel). Judging from the back-ups we see that Kinoshita will most likely be the man to beat. But on the other hand the outright favourite always had a hard time in these hilly classics so far, so we also have an open race for secondary favourites.
The two guys we most likely have to watch closer are Roche and Ulissi. The later should be the guy to go for when the sprint stat matters. He could use a tough race with heavy winds but not extraordinarily fast ridden climbs. For Roche it's a different story; he needs a tough race as well, but in addition to that he also needs to make sure that the hills are ridden on a fast pace to use his mountain stat. van der Hugenhaben will point in the same direction.
Outside favourites are the Hugo Boss team with their numbers. Hopes for good Top 10 places are surely on for Bystrom and the UBS guys. Borges could also be a potential candidate for an upset, if he gets his acceleration to use.
The african flags are held up by Ben Nasser in the home race for Telkom. Also  Eritel here with a couple of guys hoping for some upper places to make the african continent shine in a PCT race based here in South Africa.
Candidates for major upsets from long range are also here in plenty numbers. To throw in several names with an interesting skillset we have:
Roleurs:
Hermans
 Kuznetsov
Vermeltfoort
Hoogerland
Rabon
Punchy sprinters:
Reimer
Jans
McEvoy
 Vastaranta
Kadri
Climbers:
Ji
Anacona
Slagter
 Preidler
Janse van Rensburg
Full startlist:
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-12-2016 17:19
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Directeur Sportif
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Ouch this looks like something Ulissi won't be happy with, he really highly dislikes long climbs and this doesn't look like something that will change his streak of no top 10s in hilly classics. Not saying much, but I would be really glad if he got a top 10.
Thinking the mo/hi ratio is gonna advantage Roche, no one should be close in these situations.
Thanks for the ever great previews Croatia!
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| Selwink |
Posted on 05-12-2016 17:42
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Grand Tour Champion
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We're here because of our HC band.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 05-12-2016 18:27
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Really wish I could've been here with LLS. 
Hope we see a more exciting race than just a sprint up the final climb, which this looks set for, if it's just a sprint, I'll pick Anuar Aziz or whoever's on front, otherwise it's incredibly open.
Thanks a lot for the great preview Croatia! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-12-2016 18:29
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World Champion
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Waeytens + support should hopefully result in a top 10
Nice pace Croatia!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 23:52
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 05-12-2016 18:33
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Nice report! All I can do is hope for a top 10 with some of the better guys missing, but its unlikely for us with the way things have been going this year.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 05-12-2016 22:44
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World Champion
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As always its a packed startlist with a bunch of the other top punchuers in the division. I think we have a great support team for Kinoshita here, and I would really love to win this.
It will be interesting to see just how important the MO/HIL ratio is, and hopefully its just the right amount to suit Kinoshita 
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| Selwink |
Posted on 06-12-2016 16:21
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Wow, that was a lot better than expected, quite a serious lot better  Nice attempt by Kuznetsov who even manages to pick up some points himself. All in all a brilliant result for us.
Congrats to Danny and thanks to Croatia for an entertaining report
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 06-12-2016 16:35
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Wasn't expecting a win, but come on Zico.. Not even going to mention that other puncheur with his Zabel features.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 06-12-2016 16:47
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ULISSI! In the classic I least expected him to do well, too. But it was pretty noticeable 75% of his 2nd place came down to his positioning in the last kilometers. In PCM 15, in these kinds of climbs, if someone attacks and a single file of riders gets built, it's basically almost always the 1st in line to take the win as it seems, whatever his bars are
But hey, he still managed to stay with Roche till the end, something only 2 others could. And that's considering his mere 66 points in MO! Hope he continues with this form. Please.
Congrats danny, would have been baffled if Roche hadn't taken it, and thanks for the thrilling report to Croatia.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 06-12-2016 17:10
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Classics Specialist
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Guess what, its!
Spoiler It's Celebration time!
Seems we finally hit the lottery and won, but I'm really glad for this win! This will probably be Roche last GC of a race in his MG career, so good he could do it for us here Really needed this one for our hopes to get our Top 10 goal completed. Thanks for the report!
EDIT : Most managers would probably have send a former race winner here, but glad the bet on the MO/Hill part worked out in the end
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| viking90 |
Posted on 06-12-2016 19:21
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9th is a result I´m happy with And Zielser getting a top 20, too bad Hoogerland could not be first in his group and collect some small pts aswell!
But thanks for great preview and report! |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 06-12-2016 19:27
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Classics Specialist
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Aaaaah, so close to a huge bet win on Ulissi. Congrats to danny!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 07-12-2016 01:06
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World Champion
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That was pretty poor positioning. Not sure Kinoshita was the right guy to win it anyway, but positioning definitely could have helped us get a slightly better finish I think, and with his strength you'd think he would have been higher up heading into the finish.
Oh well.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 07-12-2016 02:52
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Interesting race, more than happy with fifth considering it was a much tougher final climb then expected. Congrats Arrinera on the win. Thanks for the report croatia!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 08-12-2016 09:44
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Looks like 80 HIL was the stat to go here in Nelspruit. Flugel, Anuar Aziz and Kinoshita were left out with the lower top10. Powerful sprint from Roche in the end proving to be a clever choice here. Congrats Arrinera.
Borges looked fresh in the end too, but that split completely blew it for us.
Anyway thanks for another report Croatia 
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 08-12-2016 17:34
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Small Tour Specialist
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gj Bilbao, saving the race for us
dissapointing by Costa, although he wasnt the only favourite to fail here, glad I picked two leaders. hoped for a bigger showing from the remaigning lads though!
Congrats Danny and thanks Crotia, missed this earlier cause of little time atm.
not really sure the mo/hill ratio counted here as both Ulissi and Bilbao have -70 hill here though danny.
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 08-12-2016 22:46
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Pretty ok with the 4th place by van der hugenhaben, at this point we'll take any top 5s we can get |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 09-12-2016 06:48
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Igor Boev for president! Thanks for the report Croatia (there should be an one click button solely for thanking Croatia14 for a report)
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| Heine |
Posted on 15-12-2016 05:14
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Seems like my entire team took the day off on this race. Should never have sent Egger in the break, then they would prolly have been at the front and could've done better. Might be that Flügel had a minus 5 day and that affected everything
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