In order to judge the projections made by our 4 worthy contestants I have come up with a rather simple system. For every placing they are incorrect of a said team they will get a point, for example say Movistar finishes 5th and X projected them 10th then X would get 5 points. So the lower the number of points the better.

Actual Rankings

Stromeon

Points

Smowz

Points

jph27

Points

knockout

Points

1st

Nutresa

Risa-Ergon

6

Risa-Ergon

6

Risa-Ergon

6

Risa-Ergon

6

2nd

Bonsucro

Bonsucro

0

TomTom

9

Nordeus

11

ONCE

1

3rd

ONCE

ONCE

0

ONCE

0

ASDA

14

TomTom

8

4th

Euskaltel

Azteca

5

Azteca

4

TomTom

7

Fletcher

11

5th

Vontrobel

TomTom

6

Nutresa

4

Bonsucro

3

Azteca

3

6th

Siam

Nutresa

5

ASDA

11

Maloja

10

Nutresa

5

7th

Risa

Fletcher

8

Vontrobel

2

ONCE

4

Maloja

9

8th

Azteca

Ireland

1

Maloja

8

Vontrobel

3

ASDA

9

9th

Ireland

Vontrobel

5

Sauber

3

Sauber

3

Nordeus

4

10th

Evonik

In-n-Out

4

Bonsucro

8

Nutresa

9

Vontrobel

5

11th

TomTom

Maloja

5

Fletcher

4

Euskaltel

7

Bonsucro

9

12th

Sauber

Chiquita

12

Ireland

3

Ireland

3

Ireland

3

13th

Nordeus

ASDA

4

Evonik

3

Azteca

5

Evonik

3

14th

In-n-Out

Ameriabank

6

Siam

8

Fletcher

1

Ameriabank

6

15th

Fletcher

Live Nation

11

In-n-Out

1

Ameriabank

5

In-n-Out

1

16th

Maloja

Dell

3

Ameriabank

4

Evonik

6

Dell

3

17th

ASDA

Sauber

5

Euskaltel

13

Siam

11

Live Nation

9

18th

Lierse

Nordeus

5

Nordeus

5

Live Nation

8

Euskaltel

14

19th

Dell

Alpina

3

Stobart

2

Dell

0

Stobart

2

20th

Ameriabank

Stobart

1

Carlsberg

3

Alpina

2

Lierse

2

21st

Stobart

Carlsberg

2

Chiquita

3

In-n-Out

7

Carlsberg

2

22nd

Alpina

Euskaltel

18

Dell

3

Stobart

1

Siam

16

23rd

Carlsberg

Warriors

2

Live Nation

3

Warriors

2

Sauber

11

24th

Chiquita

Lierse

5

Alpina

2

Chiquita

0

Alpina

2

25th

Warriors

Evonik

15

Lierse

7

Carlsberg

2

Chiquita

1

26th

Live Nation

Siam

20

Warriors

1

Lierse

8

Warriors

1

1st	Smowz	120
2nd	jph27	138
3rd	knockout	146
4th	Stromeon	157

This does indeed mean that the experienced Smowz, who has been a member of the Man-Game for some time now, was the most accurate on average with his predictions. PCT manager jph quite narrowly edged out newcomer Knockout for 2nd while Stromeon's Statistical analysis proved to the be the most incorrect of the 4 which was to be expected because we all know the Man-Game isn't about having just the best few riders.

Team Name	Stromeon	Smowz	Jph27	Knockout	AVG		Actual Finish		Difference
Nutresa	6th	5th	10th	6th	7th		1st		6
Bonsucro	2nd	5th	10th	11th	7th		2nd		5
ONCE	3rd	3rd	7th	2nd	4th		3rd		1
Euskaltel	22nd	17th	11th	18th	17th		4th		13
Vontrobel	9th	7th	8th	10th	9th		5th		4
Siam	26th	14th	17th	22nd	20th		6th		14
Risa	1st	1st	1st	1st	1st		7th		-6
Azteca	4th	4th	13th	5th	6th		8th		-2
Bank of Ireland	8th	12th	12th	12th	11th		9th		2
Evonik	25th	13th	16th	13th	17th		10th		7
TomTom	5th	2nd	4th	3rd	3rd		11th		-8
Sauber	17th	9th	9th	23rd	15th		12th		3
Nordeus	18th	18th	2nd	9th	12th		13th		-1
In-n-Out	10th	15th	21st	15th	15th		14th		1
Fletcher	7th	11th	14th	4th	9th		15th		-6
Maloja	11th	8th	6th	7th	8th		16th		-8
ASDA	13th	6th	3rd	8th	8th		17th		-9
Lierse	24th	25th	26th	20th	24th		18th		6
Dell	16th	22nd	19th	16th	18th		19th		-1
Ameriabank	14th	16th	15th	14th	15th		20th		-5
Eddie Stobart	20th	19th	22nd	19th	20th		21st		-1
Alpina	19th	24th	20th	24th	22nd		22nd		0
Carlsberg	21st	20th	25th	21st	22nd		23rd		-1
Chiquita	12th	21st	24th	25th	21st		24th		-3
Wounded Warrior	23rd	26th	23rd	26th	25th		25th		0
Live Nation	15th	23rd	18th	17th	18th		26th		-8

As we can see from this table, there were some projections that were very correct. Some not so much. Nutresa and Bonsucro at the top of the rankings were an example of a team that was expected to do well but not extremely well. ONCE was expected to finish in the Top 3 and they did just that.

Two teams at the top who surpassed expectations were Euskaltel and Siam. Expected to finish 17th Euskaltel finished the season in 4th and this result is basically described by their label as "The Breakaway Kings" of the CT/PCT Divisions. Siam on the other hand were carried by none other than Rankings Winner Vitor Rodrigues who dominated the CT division and outscored many teams near the bottom on the CT.

Projected 1st Risa-Ergon ended the season in 7th. They were probably slightly over rated but with a bit more luck and remove the two surprise teams then Risa would have been a definite Top 5 Contender.

Evonik was another team put quite far down in projections by most but had a great season with Geschke in the hilly classics and were probably unfortunate to finish as low as 10th after being higher earlier in the season.

Jesleyh's late entry, Team TomTom had very high expectations but unfortunately their riders didn't quite perform and the projected podium was very distant as they finished 11th.

Fletcher (Disbanding), Maloja (Disbanding) and ASDA all finished well below their projected rankings inside the Top 10 to finish in the mid to late teens. Whether this was because of poor race planning or bad luck is something I didn't follow through out the season.

Lierse were expected to finish 24th but pulled their season together a bit to finish in 18th.

From 21st down to 25th there were no real surprises. These teams had a difficult transfer window and some because of nationality focus. They will hopefully do better next season as they have a base to work from.

And lastly, Live Nation never really got going. Smowz projected them in the bottom 4 while the other 3 around 15th-18th but in the end the team managed by Atlantius took home the wooden spoon. I would not lose hope though because Atlantius will be able to come back from this.

I have used the exact same system which you PCT managers should be relatively familiar with.

Actual

Smowz

Points

jph27

Points

FroomeDog99

Points

Firefly21

Points

1st

Quickstep

Quickstep

0

Bacardi

4

Bacardi

4

Bacardi

4

2nd

Heineken

Venchi

2

Quickstep

1

Quickstep

1

Meiji

8

3rd

Oz

Bacardi

2

Venchi

1

Venchi

1

Venchi

1

4th

Venchi

Heineken

2

Heineken

2

Heineken

2

Quickstep

3

5th

Bacardi

Gazelle

2

Oz

3

Meiji

5

Heineken

3

6th

CSC

Jaguar

2

La Vie

3

Metinvest

5

CSC

0

7th

Gazelle

Puma

6

Meiji

3

Oz

4

Swedbank

11

8th

Jaguar

Meiji

2

Metinvest

3

CSC

2

Jaguar

0

9th

La Vie

Metinvest

2

CSC

3

Swedbank

9

Puma

4

10th

Meiji

Oz

7

Swedbank

8

La Vie

1

Gazelle

3

11th

Metinvest

CSC

5

RBC

9

RBC

9

Oz

8

12th

Magna

La Vie

3

Gazelle

5

Jaguar

4

Metinvest

1

13th

Puma

Magna

1

Jaguar

5

Puma

0

La Vie

4

14th

FCB

Swedbank

4

Allianz

9

Gazelle

7

Karcher

7

15th

AMEX

FCB

1

Hornbach

9

Repsol

1

Magna

3

16th

Repsol

Kazzinc

1

Privatbank

6

AMEX

1

RBC

4

17th

Kazzinc

AMEX

2

Puma

4

Hornbach

7

Allianz

6

18th

Swedbank

Karcher

3

FCB

4

Allianz

5

Hornbach

6

19th

Kappa

RBC

1

AMEX

4

Karcher

2

Repsol

3

20th

RBC

Allianz

3

Kenya

5

Kazzinc

3

Kazzinc

3

21st

Karcher

Hornbach

3

Karcher

0

Kappa

2

AMEX

6

22nd

Privatbank

Mobil

6

Kazzinc

5

Magna

10

Kenya

3

23rd

Allianz

Kappa

4

Kappa

4

Kenya

2

FCB

9

24th

Hornbach

Repsol

8

Magna

12

Privatbank

2

Kappa

5

25th

Kenya

Privatbank

3

Mobil

3

FCB

11

Privatbank

3

26th

Bulgaria

Compal

4

Repsol

10

Mobil

2

Mobil

2

27th

Africa

Kenya

2

Africa

0

Compal

3

Africa

0

28th

Mobil

Bulgaria

2

Bulgaria

2

Africa

1

Compal

2

29th

Belarus

Africa

2

Compal

1

Bulgaria

3

Bulgaria

3

30th

Compal

Belarus

1

Belarus

1

Belarus

1

Belarus

1

1st	Smowz	86
2nd	FroomeDog99	110
3rd	Firefly21	116
4th	jph27	129

Well again it is Smowz who is the best at projections. Clearly his experience in the Man-Game is telling here as he takes this one comfortably ahead of the PCT managers. He only guessed one correctly which was the winner, Quickstep.

FroomDog narrowly taking out 2nd. He did however only manage to get Puma correct. Firefly who only just lost the battle for 2nd guessed CSC-Orbea, Jaguar and Africa correctly. The loser, jph, guessed Karcher and Africa correctly.

So this year in the PCT it was Smowz who is clearly the best when it comes to projections. Maybe next year we won't be as surprised if we all think like Smowz...

Team Name	Smowz	jph27	FroomeDog99	Firefly21	AVG		Actual Finish		Difference
Quickstep	1st	2nd	2nd	4th	2nd		1st		1
Heineken	4th	4th	4th	5th	4th		2nd		2
Oz	10th	5th	7th	11th	8th		3rd		5
Venchi	2nd	3rd	3rd	3rd	3rd		4th		-1
Bacardi	3rd	1st	1st	1st	1st		5th		-4
CSC-Orbea	11th	9th	8th	6th	8th		6th		2
Gazelle	5th	12th	14th	10th	10th		7th		3
Jaguar	6th	13th	12th	8th	10th		8th		2
La Vie Claire	12th	6th	10th	13th	10th		9th		1
Meiji	8th	7th	5th	2nd	5th		10th		-5
Metinvest	9th	8th	6th	12th	9th		11th		-2
Magna	13th	24th	22nd	15th	18th		12th		6
Puma	7th	17th	13th	9th	11th		13th		-2
FCB-Polska	15th	19th	25th	23rd	20th		14th		6
AMEX	17th	19th	16th	21st	18th		15th		3
Repsol	24th	26th	15th	19th	21st		16th		5
Kazzinc	16th	22nd	20th	20th	19th		17th		2
Swedbank	14th	10th	9th	7th	10th		18th		-8
Kappa	23rd	23rd	21st	24th	23rd		19th		4
RBC	19th	11th	11th	16th	14th		20th		-6
Karcher	18th	21st	19th	14th	18th		21st		-3
Privatbank	25th	16th	24th	25th	22nd		22nd		0
Allianz	20th	14th	19th	17th	17th		23rd		-6
Hornbach	21st	15th	17th	18th	18th		24th		-6
Kenya	27th	20th	23rd	22nd	23rd		25th		-2
Bulgaria	28th	28th	29th	29th	29th		26th		3
Africa	29th	27th	28th	27th	28th		27th		1
Mobil	22nd	25th	26th	26th	25th		28th		-3
Belarus	30th	30th	30th	30th	30th		29th		1
Compal	26th	29th	27th	28th	27th		30th		-3

At the head of the table Quickstep, who were predicted to finish 2nd, ended up taking the PCT crown thanks to some top class performances from Spanish Stage Racer Marquez. Heineken were expected to be up in the promotion places and did exactly that to finish in 2nd place after a consistently good season. Venchi in 4th were expected to promote and only just finished off the podium. Predicted 1st Bacardi ended up in 5th but certainly had the team to do slightly better with Uran and Intxausti performing well but probably not as great as they could have been.

The big surprise this year in the promotion places has to be Oz Cycling Project. Everyone's favourite manager Tsmoha got his reward for his reporting with Oz finishing on the final podium spot after being predicted to finish around 8th place.

Magna and FCB-Polska finished above expectations in the mid teen region after being predicted to finish around 20th.

There were more than a few PCT teams that finished well below the expectations of our projectionists. These include Swedbank who finished 18th after a 10th place prediction, RBC who finished 20th after being expected to finish 14th, and lastly the Allianz/Hornbach duo who were expected to finish 17th and 18th but ended up in 23rd and 24th.

At the foot of the table the bottom 5 were as expected. Bulgaria who were predicted to finish 2nd bottom managed to show signs of brightness but ultimately found themselves in the dreaded relegation places, whether they will be relegated or not is still to be seen. Africa were expected to finish down there and they did. Mobil got a projection of 22nd from Smowz and were expected to finish just outside the relegation zone but some hard luck sees them finish in 28th. Belarus were expected by all to take home the wooden spoon but they avoided it by 1 place to finish in 29th. The unfortunate Compal found themselves at the bottom after a long hard season, they were predicted to be bottom 5 but even they would have been surprised to find themselves at the bottom of the pile.

In all it seemed slightly easier to predict the PCT top and bottom but the middle proved to be difficult. The only real surprise team was Oz Cycling Project. Will it be as easy to make projections next year is the next question to be asked?