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Paris - Nice Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:06
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Grand Tour Specialist
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The Pro Tour division gets the first real mountain test of the season in Paris - Nice, a race that is back into the mountain-type of race, as they made an agreement with Tirreno - Adriatico of each having one year a route suited to strong puncheurs and other for strong climbers. The route will be the exact same route as in 2016, with the winner that year happening to be one of the main contenders this year too.
The race starts with a short prologue, before a couple of flat stages more suited to sprinters who are good over hills, but no one should be surprised if the more pure sprinters take the win in those stages. From there, a non-stop race with 5 challenging stages. The first, a hilly top finish which shouldn't see a lot of gaps and could be decided between a sprint of favourites or a true puncheur running away with the win.
Stage 5 is probably the most important stage with the mountain finish in Avoriaz. Whoever wants to win the race needs to be the best here. The next day we have another challenging mountain stage, that could be either a cracking stage, with big gaps thanks to attacks in the previous climb to the final, or a rather-big sprint between the GC riders. And the final road stage should see a sprint between the sprinters could can climb the better, or most likely, a breakaway win.
And then all will be decided in Col d'Eze, with the MTT up the climb, which will give us the winner of the 2018 edition of the race.
 Taaramäe is the best climber in the world, and despite not being able to win in his season start in Apex, he is without any doubt the main favourite for the win. He was second in the 2016 race, so he knows well the route
 Schleck won the race in 2016, in the start of his magic season where he won every single race he took part that year. Now with 33 years and not anymore in the top of his game, he isn't expected to win again the race, but a second place behind Taaramae should be a realistic goal
 Amador makes his return to PT level with his team UBS, and is looking for a podium to start his season in a good way. The third strongest climber here, his all-round skills could help him to overcome Schleck's punch in the mountain.
A lot of time has passed since  Gesink won this race when he was still a young talent, back in 2009, but the Dutch rider is back here to add another podium place to his record in the race. He should use his great hilly skills in S4 and S7 to gain time on the pure climbers if he wants to finish as high as possible in GC
 Martin is another former winner of the race, back in 2014. A suiting route for him, with the hilly stages giving him some advantage when the mountains come and better climbers are around him, but his skillset should be good enough for a Top5 result here
 Tenorio,  Morton and  Machado are three riders that are strong on paper, but his the known issues of the former duo with their punch, and the decline of the Portuguese raise questions on their ability to fight for a podium place
 Hirt,  Guldhammer,  Wellens and  Olivier are dark horses for a Top5 result if they get lucky in the mountains, but they are more likely to fight for scraps in the Top10.
 Berhane,  Quintana, Reis,  Faiers or  Bibby can't never be counted out for a decent GC result, given their skills and the chance that if they lose time in the first mountain stage, they are riders that could go onto the attack in latter stages
| Favourites | MON | HILL | PRL | Contenders | MON | HILL | PRL | | Taaramäe | 85 | 78 | 79 | Olivier | 80 | 76 | 69 | | Schleck | 84 | 74 | 72 | Berhane | 81 | 75 | 65 | | Amador | 84 | 75 | 77 | Reis | 81 | 73 | 76 | | Gesink | 83 | 81 | 80 | Quintana | 81 | 74 | 71 | | Tenorio | 84 | 76 | 79 | Faiers | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Martin | 82 | 77 | 71 | Goos | 77 | 74 | 76 | | Morton | 84 | 76 | 73 | Chiarello | 78 | 75 | 71 | | Hirt | 81 | 74 | 73 | Bibby | 77 | 76 | 77 | | Guldhammer | 81 | 77 | 71 | Karnulin | 78 | 74 | 70 | | Machado | 83 | 76 | 73 |  Nerz | 80 | 72 | 73 | | Wellens | 81 | 75 | 72 |  Chamorro | 78 | 75 | 64 | | Marquez | 80 | 71 | 70 | Sosnitskiy | 78 | 72 | 64 |
Sprinters have a couple of stages favorable to them, but it also looks like punchy sprinter would do better than pure sprinters. Anyway, the sprinting field is not the most impressive here, led by Howard and Groenewegen. Obviously, as a punchy sprinter Van der Lijke is the favourite for, specially S3, the sprints if the stages are raced hard enough to wear the better sprinters. Houle is another sprinters of the Dutch kind, but slightly weaker overall than him. Desigual duo is here, with Zabel and Maksimov either working together, or going on their own. Enger and Silvestre are two riders that could use their great prologue skills to jump into the race lead the second day if they finish in the Top3.
As expected, a weak puncheur field, with only GC riders and PCT wildcard with great hill abilities.  Lutsenko is back in the race after winning the race last year in the hilly-prone route, and should have his eyes set on S4, same for Betancourt
| Favourites | SPR | ACC | HIL | Favourites | HIL | ACC | MON | | Howard | 82 | 79 | 68 | Lutsenko | 81 | 81 | 73 | | Groenewegen | 82 | 81 | 66 | Gesink | 81 | 68 | 83 | | Van der Lijke | 81 | 79 | 76 | Betancourt | 80 | 74 | 73 | | Enger | 81 | 78 | 69 | Boily | 78 | 74 | 76 | | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 69 | Taaramäe | 78 | 76 | 85 |  Van Poppel | 81 | 78 | 64 | Guldhammer | 77 | 76 | 81 | | Maksimov | 81 | 84 | 60 | Martin | 77 | 76 | 82 | | Silvestre | 80 | 81 | 67 | Van der Lijke | 76 | 79 | 64 | | Castañeda | 80 | 79 | 59 | Bibby | 76 | 71 | 77 |  Houle | 79 | 78 | 75 | Olivier | 76 | 71 | 80 |
Remember that we have an opening prologue, so a lot of great riders for that stage will be present. Gesink could try to take an early GC lead that should help him in the GC battle later on, but riders as  Stoltz, Leung have one of their few chances all season to take a win, while more classic TT riders like Paillot, Howson or Sütterlin are also big favourites for the win in this stage
| Gesink | 80 | | Paillot | 80 | | Stoltz | 80 | | Howson | 80 | | Sütterlin | 80 | | Leung | 80 | | Van Winden | 80 | | Taaramäe | 79 | | Tenorio | 79 | | Fraile | 79 |
Hugo Boss decided to skip this race, due to triple clash commitments
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| Ad Bot |
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:09
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Top 10 will be difficult with the TT. But not impossible if aggressive in the mountains. Top15 though is a must surely and good sprint results by Groenewegen pls. |
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| Vien |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:17
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Small Tour Specialist
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A wildcard race I'm certainly looking out for! It obviously would've been better to send Lutsenko to a different race, but I couldn't resist having him race here to "defend" his title.
Apart from that I have 7 riders for XP reasons here so not expecting anything from them  |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:19
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World Champion
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Why didn't Brambilla make the GC riders short list?
The most important thing that will come out of this race for my team is if Van Poppel can actually contest these types of sprints now. Not putting too much pressure on Howson on the other hand, anything will do in the prologue.
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| ember |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:25
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Hopeful for this race and Guldhammer's chances. The hilly stages, and especially stage 4, will be key, and hopefully he can make good use of it. A stage podium should be possible there, as looking at the GC riders it's only Taaramäe that on paper looks marginally better, I think. Then there's of course Lutsenko as well. Fingers crossed he can gain some time there and build on it. Then a top 6-8 should be within reach, which would make for a very good race, looking at the general quality in PT for stage races.
Taaramäe must be the obvious favourite, and I see Schleck as his only challenger. Hopefully the old man still has it, and puts up a nice fight for the overall win. If not we could be heading for complete Taaramäe dominance.
As the preview points out, the sprinters present aren't top class, meaning SHE should have a decent chance, at least on stage 2, as the small road bumps are only to his advantage, I think. Then we also got Paillot on home soil chasing Maillot Jaune and a stage win on the prologue, but they tend to be quite a lottery, meaning expectations aren't great for the opener 
Looking forward to this one! |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:32
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Because of his awful acceleration. It's 10 points worse than most of 78 climbers, and neither his backups are great
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:38
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World Champion
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Aquarius97 wrote:
Because of his awful acceleration. It's 10 points worse than most of 78 climbers, and neither his backups are great
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:43
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Always some pressure to deliver with Howard failing in Qatar and Bobridge not looking good at T-A.. Definitely need Howard to do something in the flat stages, even though he won't have too many helpers suited to this stuff Morton should be able to fight for a Top-5 despite his known weakness. But why don't we punch above our weight for a change? Oh. I know why. But please don't disappoint me.. once again.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:45
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Sprinter
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Amador has historically done well in mountain time trials, so that's part of the reason he is here. I'm happy some of the other top-tier GC guys passed on this one because I think it makes a podium very possible for us. I think Schleck still has the edge on Amador despite declining, but it should be a good battle behind Taaramae.
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-09-2018 17:59
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World Champion
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This is one of those races I look forward to quite a lot. Not because it will be good for us, but because we have a setup that will be used a fair few times.
Chamorro and Vasyliv as our leaders. Hopefully around 15th for Chamorro and a top 25 for Vasyilv with him also fighting for 2nd in the U25 competition. And then Bar and Santos for the sprints, where they can hopefully mingle and get a few points, maybe even make use of their high FL stat.
Also it will be very interesting to see if we play it aggressively here when we don't have a clear leader. I sure hope so.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 05-09-2018 18:01
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Classics Specialist
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A parcours that fits nicely for Dan Martin in his debut for Grieg-Eftel. Can't imagine he will copy his 2014 win though, with especially Gesink and Taaramae looking too strong. Hopefully we can see Martin at his best in the hilly stages and challenging for the podium/top five.
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| knockout |
Posted on 05-09-2018 18:54
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Grand Tour Champion
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The least interesting race for Evonik in the triple header but i still have some hopes for tv coverage. Stoltz is amongst the favourites for the prologue and it would be nice to see the dice in his favor for once as he gasnt performed too well in prologues the last few years.
Its one of the mountainous races with only two of my climbers attending as Sergis and Sakalou were needed afors support for Grand-Duche. Both Vosekalns and Egger have proven in the past that they can be good from breaks and i hope to see them race aggressively here. Might not be the best race for breakaways but we'll see what they can do.
Horton is my sprinter here as in many stage races without Van Stayen. With only 76SP he will often not participate in sprints but he has proven in CT 2017 and maybe even more in PCT 2016 that he can occasionally get a result if he decides to get involved. I only need to be lucky once or twice all season to make it worth picking him over slightly better pure cobblers. Budenieks and Eislers were basically squad fillers with XP needs for this race.
Taaramae for the victory as always! Thanks for a great preview!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 05-09-2018 19:03
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Small Tour Specialist
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Fun wildcard visit to the PT for WCC. Here with our 'top guns', but that obviously still a step behind the top PT talent. Looking forward to seeing how they perform in this exalted company. Betancourt and Boily could be a dangerous duo on the hilly stages, and will keep an eye on how Berhane stands up against the mountain stage race elite, continuing to gather thoughts re: his ToA potential towards the end of the season. With no points on the line, pressure is off the lads for once, so enjoy your racing!  .
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 05-09-2018 19:36
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Team Manager
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Clearly a big race for us. Van der Lijke with 4 stages open to him and as good a field as could be hoped for.
And of course Schleck, who can hopefully put in a good race on a route that he knows well.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 05-09-2018 19:54
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Hope to get 3 guys into the top 30.
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| Roman |
Posted on 05-09-2018 19:57
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First race ever for maxed out Jan Hirt. Looking forward to see what type of an impact he can do here. Top 5 has to be the aim, while top 10 is surely the minimal goal here. Also with some luck Libin Chen may have a chance for a decent result here.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 05-09-2018 20:14
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A top5 shouldn't be impossible here with Reis backing off Machado. It's going to be interesting to know how does Machado still compare with others.
Important race for Vesuvio, Berg, Desigual and T-Mobile to name a few.
Will be crossing my fingers for a strong first day from Leung!
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| cio93 |
Posted on 05-09-2018 20:19
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Top 3 for Sütterlin in the prologue, Top 15 for Nerz overall, KoM hunting with someone. It's early, but we need points, especially unexpected ones and those that require luck.
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| fintas |
Posted on 06-09-2018 00:01
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Very important race for us, win goal and the debut of Gesink with our team.
For the first time in the season we have the possibility to play an important role in a race, it remains to know if gesink will be up to the challenge. Of lack of support he can not complain, Chiarello, Antunes, Bartl and Reguigui should be more than sufficient support.
Silvestre should have the possibility to fight for the victory in stages 2 and 3, but judging by the performance he had in Qatar I do not expect much. Van Winden did quite well in Qatar and I hope he can repeat in this race, if he is not able to fight for the victory, he should get at least a place in the top 10 in the initial stage.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 06-09-2018 06:28
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Probably not much in it for us, still a nice preview to read!
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