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Strada Appia Antica Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 10-11-2016 07:33
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Strada Appia Antica
| Category: PT Classic | 191,8 km | terrain: cobbles |  Italy |
Back on track with World Tour action is the preview of 2016s edition of Strada Appia Antica. This quite traditional race has a lenght of 191.8 kilometers and is mainly flat. The last 100 kilometers though will firstly contain a climb and a descent, lateron the cobbles start with around 80 kilometers to go. They'll guide us until the finishing line and will decide about todays winners and losers.
In the past few years we had different scenarios of outcome for this race. Cancellara, who sadly is not here this year, won a stellar solo victory in 2013. Wellens won from a 5 man group in 2012 back when this was a CDiv2 race. However the last two episodes were won by  Sam Bewley. And he has proven that he can win it two-way: Either from a big bunch sprint (2014) or head to head against Cancellara (2015).
And guess what? He is back for 2016, leading the startlist of these episode and being the outright favourite for this day. But there are many guys out there interested in breaking his cobbled dominance:
| Cob | Fla | Spr | Acc | Res | Sta | Hil | | Sam Bewley | 83 | 78 | 83 | 83 | 76 | 78 | 71 |  Marcus Burghardt | 83 | 78 | 68 | 74 | 75 | 79 | 71 |  Pieter Vanspeybrouck | 82 | 76 | 67 | 69 | 71 | 78 | 71 |  Greg Van Avermaet | 82 | 78 | 78 | 78 | 75 | 78 | 76 |  Arman Kamyshev | 82 | 77 | 66 | 58 | 75 | 81 | 65 |  Florian Senechal | 82 | 75 | 69 | 74 | 74 | 79 | 66 |  Adam Blythe | 82 | 76 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 76 | 66 |  Frederik Nolf | 80 | 74 | 63 | 71 | 72 | 77 | 66 |  Marcos Altur | 80 | 75 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 75 | 70 |  Sep Vanmarcke | 80 | 76 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 77 | 66 |
Out of these Top10 cobblers we recognized this season that Greg Van Avermaet might be the strongest opponent of mighty Sam. But also Marcus Burghardt has something to prove for this race. He will have to try and drop Bewley somehow, cause otherwise he won't stand a chance to win it in a sprint. Same goes for Arman Kamyshev, Pieter Vanspeybrouck, Florian Senechal and Frederik Nolf. Especially Adam Blythe, but also Marcos Altur and Sep Vanmarcke might like a sprint from a reduced bunch to get a quality result. Beating Bewley though would still be a tough ask.
Not only the Top 10 cobblers have an interest here though. There are several other types of riders who could have a shot in different scenarios:
| Cob | Spr | Acc | Fla | Sta | | Cob | Spr | Acc | Fla | Hil |  Degenkolb | 72 | 84 | 81 | 76 | 73 |  Trentin | 79 | 75 | 76 | 74 | 74 |  Kristoff | 78 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 75 |  Veelers | 78 | 76 | 77 | 74 | 64 | | Stallaert | 77 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 76 | Daniel | 79 | 76 | 72 | 73 | 69 |  Havik | 75 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 74 | | Cob | Fla | Sta | Res | Acc | | Rowe | 75 | 79 | 80 | 78 | 76 |  Gusev | 78 | 76 | 78 | 76 | 68 |  Kump | 73 | 79 | 80 | 74 | 76 | Wisniowski | 77 | 78 | 73 | 74 | 76 | | Farrar | 71 | 79 | 77 | 72 | 75 | Breen | 77 | 77 | 72 | 72 | 72 |  Thwaites | 76 | 78 | 76 | 73 | 74 | | Cob | Hil | Fla | Res | Sta |  Young | 74 | 78 | 77 | 74 | 74 | Claeys | 64 | 83 | 73 | 68 | 74 | | Kluge | 77 | 77 | 75 | 78 | 77 |  Boom | 74 | 75 | 75 | 76 | 75 | | Sbaragli | 72 | 77 | 78 | 76 | 76 |  David | 78 | 75 | 74 | 74 | 76 |
Talking about the real sprinters I gave the ones with over 70 cobbles the chance to survive the cobbles in the slowest possible scenario. Then we have two main contenders for Bewley: John Degenkolb will only contend in a really really slow race, while Alex Kristoff can do it on a tougher one.
Other riders that prefer a Gent-Wevelgem style of racing having a pretty competitive cobbled stat are PCT star Kump, Farrar and Young. The more het Nieuwesblad style classics sprinters with a more than decent cobbled stat are also here in numbers. Joeri Stallaert to begin with, but also the likes of Rowe, Thwaites, Kluge, Daniel, Veelers and Trentin.
Additionally we also have some stronger flat specialists here that will surely try to get away earlier and then hang on to a long range attack. The perfect riders in here for that are Wisniowski, Gusev and Breen. At least the Russian should have the freedom to go for himself.
Same goes for the puncheurs, that surely will try to use the mid race hill are Boom and David. If the couple could do some damage there they might have a shot on a high placing. An interesting name to through in is Dimitri Claeys. The world-class puncheur could also try to benifit from the mid-race hill, but even needs long gaps there more than anybody else to do something despite his low cobbled stat.
To conclude it of course every guy has the chance to win from a breakaway. Therefore we have the full startlist here for you:
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 10-11-2016 07:51
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Considering our most recent run of results... I expect a bummer here.
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| roturn |
Posted on 10-11-2016 07:54
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Hopefully for once at least something in a cobbled classic.
Can`t be disappointed here anyway though. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:13
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We have one shot, and one shot only here. Tom David to make use of his hill stat. If not, then we can't expect anything at all... The hill is not hard enough to give any troubles for Bewley and despite van Avermaet being better in that aspect, I really can't see another winner than Bewley.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:18
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As in every cobbled classic, Bewley's race to lose. Van Avermaet might come close like he did earlier in the season, but the Kiwi just too good to lose a hard cobbled race. 5.8k on him pls.
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:18
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Nice preview croatia14!
I have almost forgot that MG season is not only made of GT success, so back to reality now. 
Nolf is hopefully again top10-15 candidate and should be again hindered by his non-exiostent sprint. Bewley FTW obviously, that is not a thing to discuss.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 14:36
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:22
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Very good preview Croatia14, a long range attack with Gusev would be fun indeed!
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:34
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On Bewley...
.: Manager of :.
.: My Awards :.
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| SotD |
Posted on 10-11-2016 09:42
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Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Nice preview croatia14!
I have almost forgot that MG season is not only made of GT success, so back to reality now.
Nolf is hopefully again top10-15 candidate and should be again hindered by his non-exiostent sprint. Bewley FTW obviously, that is not a thing to discuss.
It sucks that you are almost up to the two leading teams, and then - WHAM - A cobbled race
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 10-11-2016 10:03
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SotD wrote:
Avin Wargunnson wrote:
Nice preview croatia14!
I have almost forgot that MG season is not only made of GT success, so back to reality now.
Nolf is hopefully again top10-15 candidate and should be again hindered by his non-exiostent sprint. Bewley FTW obviously, that is not a thing to discuss.
It sucks that you are almost up to the two leading teams, and then - WHAM - A cobbled race
I dont care much about our position in this "enjoy it while it lasts" year, but yeah, it is funny how we are swinging back and forth most likely. From last spot to the top3 maybe and now we will most likely start fading, hopefully not out of top10 till the end of the year. 
I hope for the rankings update at some point. 
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| ember |
Posted on 10-11-2016 10:21
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Nice preview, Croatia14!
Hopefully Kristoff can fight for a top 10, and get it through a sprint for the lower top 10 placings. Bewley is the obvious favourite, and his sprint should like the relatively easy profile after the climb, if it comes down to a small group sprint. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 10-11-2016 11:11
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Great preview As always in the cobbled classics, our goal is a top 10. Trentin was great in De Ronde and Roubaix, but not so much in the easier races. Hopefully that's not a trend we'll see here too.
Interesting to see how the hill affects the race, but hoping for an offensive display.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 10-11-2016 11:41
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Considering I've bet on Bewley here there's actually a chance he won't win, in that cause I think GVA will take it.
Sweet preview as always croatia!
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| knockout |
Posted on 10-11-2016 12:06
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Another race where I'm excited to finish second. Bring it on !
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 10-11-2016 12:20
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Hoping for top 20
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 10-11-2016 12:41
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Who cares, we're winning the Vuelta
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| cio93 |
Posted on 10-11-2016 14:15
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I am optimistic the effects of the hill will be negated by the following descent, so Blythe has no one to blame but himself if he's not among the best.
After the Vuelta disaster, we really need something here to stay on track, so a Top 5 has to be the aim.
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| Roman |
Posted on 10-11-2016 17:24
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Sam Bewley: 'I guess a small amount of pressure is always necessary for good and right execution of work. I am here to work incredibly hard and that should result in my win. Good luck everyone to beat me.'
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 10-11-2016 17:53
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Grand Tour Champion
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Nice preview. Altur has been so-so in cobbles this season. Sometimes he can hang with the late attacks, other times he is nowhere to be seen.
I guess that is to be expected out of 23 year old. Still learning.
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| knockout |
Posted on 11-11-2016 21:21
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Grand Tour Champion
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What a surprising result. Not.
Glad about the result. 2nd is just what had to be expected and right in line with all other the other cobble races.
Not sure if i like the tactic but in the end, consistent second places are good points as well and GVA did well to save energy for the sprint until the last 20 km. That is too a big part down to fantastic work by the domestiques. Especially, loanees Marzuki and Kulppi did a superb job - making the favourite selection unlike every other lieutenant and reeling riders like Burghardt, Vanspeybrouck or even Bewley back in after their attacks.
Kulppi 19th, Bagdonas 24th & Flaksis 26th is a fine depth
In total 240 points. Much appreciated
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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