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Tour de Romandie Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 01:09
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 Tour de Romandie
2 flat | 2 ITT | 1 hilly (summit finish) | 1 mountainous
6 stages across Romandie await us for a true stage race with a little bit of everything. Two former winners are here as this is it's second year in PCT -  Sanchez Gil won it in fine style last year (on the exact same course, except with a hilly TT) and so is our defending champion, whilst way back it 2012  Dekker won it. The former is not a favourite - last year he was with some better stats (and a much much worse field) but the latter most certainly is.
We start with a short prologue which should only see gaps of mere seconds - it's more to decide the yellow jersey for the next day or even 3 days if the sprinters aren't up to it. We then have two flat stages for the numerous second-tier sprinters here, the latter finishing on a flat section but an uphill drag of 2-3% for a few km before that.
We then have the hilly stage which is steadily uphill most of the day before two main climbs right at the end. The mountain stage has four difficult category 1 beasts but finishes on a section of flat. Finally, we have a flat ITT of 23.7km, which will wrap up the GC if it's not done so already, or see a more typical GC rider take the win - though they're here in abundance so we won't see the yellow jersey losing minutes on this stage.
| Rider | MON | HIL | TT | Rider | MON | HIL | TT | | Dekker | 82 | 76 | 79 |  Shikai | 80 | 71 | 76 |  Machado | 84 | 77 | 74 |  Eastman | 80 | 71 | 74 |  Amador | 84 | 75 | 78 |  Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 74 | 77 |  Roche | 78 | 80 | 72 | Sanchez Gil | 76 | 78 | 74 |  Úran | 82 | 74 | 78 |  Lövkvist | 78 | 75 | 73 |  Kiserlovski | 80 | 75 | 72 |  Roglič | 77 | 76 | 72 |  Bibby | 77 | 76 | 77 |  Cataldo | 78 | 75 | 69 |  Intxausti | 82 | 71 | 77 |  Costa | 71 | 80 | 76 | | Talansky | 79 | 77 | 72 |  Anacona | 79 | 74 | 66 |  Valls | 79 | 75 | 72 |  Fothen | 78 | 71 | 74 |
A wide range of skills will be required to win this race: it has one decisive stage of each kind: mountain, hill, and time trial. It's hard to predict which stage will have the biggest effect: normally it'd be a mountain stage but the hilly stage 4 is the one with a summit finish. The stage 6 TT will see GC shuffles but isn't long enough for an ambush.
Roche will do well either way but will be hedging his bets towards stage four as the major favourite, whilst Costa will not be wanting the mountain stage to have any effect at all. Otherwise GC contenders with a good pedigree on shorter climbs, such as Machado and Talansky, will look to get away from the likes of Intxausti or Shikai.
Thomas Dekker is the best all-rounder here and will hope for a decisive but not too much stage 5 and as the best time triallist and hill rider will need these stages to make up gaps on the likes of Amador/ Úran (stage 4) and Machado (stage 6).
Bibby lacks the real edge to contest the win here but is a solid bet for a shot at top 5: he can gain time on certain rivals on two of the three stages and is a good enough climber to stay in the wheels. Nepomnyachsniy isn't so flash on stage 4 but will be hoping for an opportunity to make time up in the TT.
Finally, the likes of Anacona, Cataldo and  Nazaret will have no choice but to attack stage 5 over the mountains as they are disastrous against the clock and lack the power of short hills.
| Time Triallists | PRL | TT | RES | Sprinters | SPR | ACC | PRL | | Fiedler | 83 | 82 | 76 |  Granjel Cabrera | 80 | 77 | 71 | | Cornu | 81 | 81 | 76 | Matthews | 79 | 79 | 64 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 80 | 76 |  Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 | | Paillot | 80 | 80 | 74 |  Richeze | 79 | 77 | 58 | | Dekker | 79 | 79 | 83 | Aregger | 78 | 77 | 78 |  Van Winden | 80 | 80 | 70 |  Bennett | 79 | 79 | 57 | | | Viviani | 79 | 79 | 77 | Hayakawa | 79 | 79 | 50 | | Haugard | 79 | 79 | 77 | Reinhardt | 78 | 84 | 67 | | Úran | 78 | 78 | 81 | Kuboki | 77 | 77 | 78 |
Edited by jandal7 on 10-10-2016 01:17
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| viking90 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 04:15
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It will be hard for Lövkvist to get a good GC place but hopefully him and Cort Nielsen can sneak in to points places and Reimer can get two good stages.
Great preview! |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 10-10-2016 06:16
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Well I had to make use or Sanchez's mountain stat somewhere  Not sure why last year's winner can't contend a top 5 with some good form on the time trials (especially when Costa can, this is the one race I expected Sanchez to be better ) but given you've done the reports and say otherwise I'm kind of worried now.
I can see Roche or Bibby winning this on the whole, maybe even Talansky as with the flat section at the end of the mountain stage there seems to be an opportunity for a regroup or less attacks. Thanks for the detailed preview jandal! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 06:19
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trekbmc wrote:
Well I had to make use or Sanchez's mountain stat somewhere Not sure why last year's winner can't contend a top 5 with some good form on the time trials (especially when Costa can, this is the one race I expected Sanchez to be better ) but given you've done the reports and say otherwise I'm kind of worried now.
Oh damn, did I forget him? He's got a huge chance of course, and I wrote this before the racing
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 10-10-2016 06:27
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jandal7 wrote:
trekbmc wrote:
Well I had to make use or Sanchez's mountain stat somewhere Not sure why last year's winner can't contend a top 5 with some good form on the time trials (especially when Costa can, this is the one race I expected Sanchez to be better ) but given you've done the reports and say otherwise I'm kind of worried now.
Oh damn, did I forget him? He's got a huge chance of course, and I wrote this before the racing
Oh Thanks for clearing that up, now my expectations can go back to being a bit too high for him.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| matt17br |
Posted on 10-10-2016 07:17
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We're just here for the prologue and the closing TT, go Van Winden, I've given up on Viviani anyway
I mean, Molard could do well in the hilly stages and Malacarne could catch a few breaks, but they'd rather not I learnt
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 10-10-2016 08:33
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Not sure what to expect from Nepomnyachsniy here, but I do hope for a top 10...
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 10-10-2016 08:49
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First of all thanks for the preview
Roche will either prevail on the hill stage or fail miserably. He can definitely win this race, it should be fun to follow.
At the very least a Top 10 should be in order. Look forward to the race!
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 10-10-2016 10:23
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Thank you for a wonderful preview. We are aiming for a podium for Dekker here, which should in normal circumstances be within range, maybe even a yellow jersey in the end if lucky. Matthews might also get a podium here on one of the sprint stages.
Let's go! |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 10:25
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A top 10 from Bibby has to be the aim really, with Yates and Gallopin also here who both have the potential to finish in the top 30. Could do with a race a bit like Catalunya really, that would be perfect |
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 10-10-2016 14:52
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Thanks for the detailed preview, jandal!
Seems the GC-fight will (once again) be decided stronger teams/better leaders and Cataldo have to struggle for a top10 result.
More realistic is Aregger having a good prologue and sprinting for leader credentials the early days.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 10-10-2016 15:12
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Thanks for the race and preview jandal. This is another win goal and Amador should have a chance but there are definitely some very strong riders here to content with, and he's been beaten by Uran so far. My guess is Dekker will win.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 15:52
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Thanks for the preview, a good read. This field is stacked, I feel that any of the best 10 riders could win. It's a bit of a lottery really.
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| fintas |
Posted on 10-10-2016 16:14
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The strategy for this race is very simple, Fiedler to win both TT'S, and trying to keep the leader jersey by the maximum time possible.
To the overall Nazaret will have no chance given his weak capacities in the tt..
Thanks for great preview
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 10-10-2016 16:41
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Thanks for a nice preview.
Aiming for some good stages from Paillot and some attacking spirit from thee rest. Especially CAS would be nice to see in some early action on the lumpy stages.
Expecting Anacona somewhere around 15th-20th in the end and most likely that through passive racing all race through.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 10-10-2016 20:50
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Awesome prologue for us, quite a lot of great points this being a first stage of a HC race.
Can I know how much Viviani sucked please? Great result for the rest of the team but I can't explain why he is so incredibly shit.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 20:52
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Quick maths say he came 13 seconds down, just inside the top 30 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 10-10-2016 20:54
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Really really nice report Jandal and congrats on the win Valverde!
Over 5km the gaps are going to be small and I don't know what to expect so staying within 8 seconds of any other contenders is something I can be happy with. Next up two flat stages to delay my disappointment. I brought third-tier sprinter Franczak for them, but he's not even on the favourites so I doubt he'll even sprint.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 10-10-2016 21:40
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Good. Where was Nepom? Hard to comment on unknown results
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| jph27 |
Posted on 10-10-2016 21:42
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I don't know whether to be happy or not. And for once, it's not because I'm indecisive |
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