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Paris - Nice Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 24-11-2020 03:01
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 Paris - Nice
Welcome to the Race to the Sun. Paris-Nice is one of the fixtures of the early-season calendar, and is one of the first chances to see the real top dogs of the peloton fight it out in a stage race.
In recent years Pars–Nice has alternated years between mountain and hill-focused. And this year it will be one for the climbers as Stages 7 and 8 see a 12km mountain time trial followed by a 163km stage culminating in a long climb to Valdeblore La Colmiane.
But before those two pivotal stages we will have a less challenging mountain stage, plus 2 for the punchers, 2 for the sprinters and a prologue.
Defending champion  Sicard is back and his balanced skill set is well adapted to both last year's and this year’s parcours. But the rest of last year’s top 10 were punchier riders and none of them are back this year. We do have one other former winner, a 23-yo Robert Gesink won this race for the France Televisions team, all the way back in 2009.
With limited flat time-trialing this race seems attractive to the GC riders who aren’t as strong in the TT and it is from that group which many of our favorites are drawn.
| MT | HI | TT | PR | RS | RC |  Lecuisinier | 85 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 80 | 79 |  Dombrowski | 84 | 75 | 71 | 71 | 78 | 78 |  Morton | 84 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 78 |  Alarcon | 84 | 73 | 67 | 66 | 74 | 73 | | Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 79 | 82 |  Quintana | 82 | 74 | 71 | 71 | 76 | 76 |  Amador | 82 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 71 | 74 |  Olivier | 81 | 76 | 69 | 69 | 80 | 77 |  Keizer | 81 | 71 | 81 | 81 | 79 | 79 |  Galta | 81 | 73 | 73 | 71 | 79 | 77 |  Hirt | 81 | 74 | 73 | 73 | 79 | 79 |  Gesink | 81 | 79 | 78 | 78 | 77 | 77 |  Berhane | 81 | 75 | 66 | 65 | 74 | 73 |  Roglic | 80 | 76 | 72 | 70 | 76 | 75 | | Carapaz | 80 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 76 | 77 |  Meintjes | 80 | 78 | 71 | 71 | 76 | 78 | | Schelling | 80 | 75 | 72 | 71 | 76 | 73 |
With his superior climbing, strong TT skills and excellent back-ups Lecuisinier is a clear favorite to take the race. Only Dombrowski, Morton and Alarcon are close in terms of climbing and all of them are significantly weaker in TT skills. Alarcon also lacks in terms of back-up stats which means Dombrowski and Morton seem likely the most likely challengers to Lecuisinier
However, another possibility is that the two punchy stages will play a significant role. Stage 5 from Sisteron to Vence includes two sharp climbs in the last 20k and time gaps are possible. If that is the case, 3 other riders might at least challenge for the podium: the two former winners - Sicard and Gesink and cycleYorkshire’s Meintjes. All 3 are among the best puncheurs in the race and the first two are also excellent in the TT.
For the remaining riders it is hard to see where they will be able to gain time and they are likely looking at a fight for positions in the top 10. Keizer is very strong in the prologue but 7km doesn’t leave room for much of a time gap.
In addition to stage 5, stage 3 should also favor the punchy riders but with Tirreno-Adriatico being focused around puncheurs, the field for Paris-Nice is much weaker. Only 5 77 hill or better riders feature even expanding to 76 we still only have 10 riders. So some weaker puncheurs might have a shot at the stage victory.
| MT | HI | TT | PR | RS | AC | | Gesink | 81 | 79 | 78 | 78 | 77 | 65 | | Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 79 | 70 | | Meintjes | 80 | 78 | 71 | 71 | 76 | 69 |  Azman | 76 | 77 | 63 | 64 | 72 | 75 |  Talansky | 79 | 77 | 72 | 72 | 76 | 69 | | McKenna | 74 | 76 | 63 | 64 | 72 | 77 |  Godoy | 79 | 76 | 67 | 67 | 76 | 75 | | Roglic | 80 | 76 | 72 | 70 | 76 | 74 | | Olivier | 81 | 76 | 69 | 69 | 80 | 71 | | Morton | 84 | 76 | 73 | 73 | 78 | 67 |
6 of the 10 are among our GC favorites. Two more of them, Talansky and Godoy are also strong GC riders, they will want the hilly stages to be hard so they can offset losses they might have in the mountain stages.
The remaining two, Azman and McKenna aren’t strong enough to impose themselves but could pick up some stage points by dodging the strong competition in Italy.
Lecuisinier and Festina will be pleased with the lack of strong puncheurs as it will likely keep the stages easier and help him limit any losses on the only terrain where others have an advantage.
To help him manage that and the mountain stages he has the support of another great climber in Bongiorno as well as the all-rounder Zoidl. But as top sprinter Coquard is also here for Festina the team is not that deep in the climbing disciplines.
The good news for Festina is that none of the competition is that strong either. eBuddy’s Dombrowski is supported by Majka and Aru while Morton is supported by 4 mid-tier climbers in Power, Roe, O'Connor and Canty.
Gesink’s Duolingo squad includes Min for the mountains and some decent puncheurs, but none with the talent to put the rest of the field under pressure.
Defending champion Sicard may have the deepest support with 5 strong climbers all of whom are reasonable in the hills. The team includes Rosch, Salinas, Martin, Paez and Koch.
Turning away from the GC the prologue has attracted a number of specialists in addition to the GC riders including:
| PR |  Andersen | 83 | | Leung | 82 |  Chavanne | 82 | | Keizer | 81 | | Stoltz | 80 |  Yatsevich | 80 | | Hansen | 79 | | Coquard | 79 | | Van Winden | 79 | | Faglum Karlsson | 79 |
Grieg’s Andersen will start as the favorite but given the fine margins over 7km there is no guarantees.
Finally there are two sprint stages (2 and 4) both are about 190km and nearly entirely flat. If the winds don’t blow then the sprinters should contest both. The sprint field includes:
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | Coquard | 73 | 84 | 83 | 74 | | Groenewegen | 73 | 82 | 81 | 71 | | Appollonio | 74 | 81 | 78 | 66 | | Samolenkov | 74 | 81 | 79 | 71 | | Meyer | 72 | 80 | 76 | 65 | | Goss | 72 | 80 | 75 | 68 | | Granjel Cabrera | 74 | 79 | 75 | 69 | | Hayakawa | 73 | 79 | 79 | 68 |
Coquard is the clear favorite with Groenewegen his closest challenger. Coquard brought only one lead out man and none of the other favorites has a strong lead out. However, there are a number of sprinters just below the quality of the favorites as nearly every team sent a sprinter of some kind. So expect to see some messy sprints.
With the strongest sprinter and the best GC rider on the same team it seems like Paris-Nice could shape up to be Festina versus the field. In 8 days’ time we will know who won that battle.
And finally a look back in time: Gesink finishes the prologue in the 2009 edition of Paris-Nice in 2nd place.
Full Start List
Spoiler | Groenewegen | Dylan | Aegon - Peroni | | Koep | Thomas | Aegon - Peroni | | Machado | Tiago | Aegon - Peroni | | Olivier | Daan | Aegon - Peroni | | Rucigaj | Ziga | Aegon - Peroni | | Tejada | Harold | Aegon - Peroni | | Van Hooydonck | Nathan | Aegon - Peroni | | Velits | Peter | Aegon - Peroni | | Koch | Michel | Air France - KLM | | Martin | Guillaume | Air France - KLM | | Paez | Andres | Air France - KLM | | Rosch | David | Air France - KLM | | Salinas | Jonathan | Air France - KLM | | Sicard | Romain | Air France - KLM | | Vanendert | Jelle | Air France - KLM | | Anderberg | Hampus | Aker - MOT | | Castrillo | Jaime | Aker - MOT | | Foss | Tobias | Aker - MOT | | Galta | Fredrik Strand | Aker - MOT | | Pedersen | Casper | Aker - MOT | | Quintana | Dayer | Aker - MOT | | Siriwardena | Kashyapa | Aker - MOT | | Videika | Airidas | Aker - MOT | | Bayly | Cameron | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Canty | Brendan | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Meyer | Cameron | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Morton | Lachlan | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | O'Connor | Ben | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Power | Robert | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Roe | Timothy | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Scotson | Callum | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | Bar | Jocelyn | cycleYorkshire | | Cullaigh | Gabriel | cycleYorkshire | | Hennessy | Jacob | cycleYorkshire | | Holmes | Matthew | cycleYorkshire | | Kennaugh | Tim | cycleYorkshire | | Meintjes | Louis | cycleYorkshire | | Munoz | Daniel | cycleYorkshire | | Bagioli | Nicola | Duolingo | | Gesink | Robert | Duolingo | | Merlier | Tim | Duolingo | | Min | Kyeng Ho | Duolingo | | Oliveira | Rui | Duolingo | | Razumov | Nikita | Duolingo | | Sipos | Zoltan | Duolingo | | Van Hoecke | Gijs | Duolingo | | Centrone | Ivan | EA Vesuvio | | Galdoune | Amine | EA Vesuvio | | Girdlestone | Keagan | EA Vesuvio | | Godoy | Caio | EA Vesuvio | | Jungels | Bob | EA Vesuvio | | Kirsch | Alex | EA Vesuvio | | Pelikan | Janos | EA Vesuvio | | Reimer | Martin | EA Vesuvio | | Aru | Fabio | eBuddy | | Dombrowski | Joseph | eBuddy | | Hofstede | Lennard | eBuddy | | Lampaert | Yves | eBuddy | | Majka | Rafel | eBuddy | | Roosen | Timo | eBuddy | | Tolhoek | Antwan | eBuddy | | Budenieks | Kristaps | Evonik - ELKO | | Chavanne | Gabriel | Evonik - ELKO | | Chiarello | William | Evonik - ELKO | | Liepins | Emils | Evonik - ELKO | | Stoltz | Yannick | Evonik - ELKO | | Tvetcov | Serghei | Evonik - ELKO | | Vosekalns | Andris | Evonik - ELKO | | Bongiorno | Francesco | Festina - OAKA | | Bouglas | Georgios | Festina - OAKA | | Coquard | Bryan | Festina - OAKA | | Karatzios | Georgios | Festina - OAKA | | Lecuisinier | Pierre-Henri | Festina - OAKA | | Mavrikakis | Michail | Festina - OAKA | | Osorio | Juan | Festina - OAKA | | Zoidl | Riccardo | Festina - OAKA | | Bibby | Ian | Gazelle | | Boaro | Manuele | Gazelle | | Fejes | Gabor | Gazelle | | Kruijswijk | Steven | Gazelle | | Malecki | Kamil | Gazelle | | Powless | Neilson | Gazelle | | Sosnitskiy | Anatoliy | Gazelle | | Vervaeke | Louis | Gazelle | | Bouchard | Geoffrey | Generali | | Brown | Nathan | Generali | | Dyball | Benjamin | Generali | | Fernandes | Jose | Generali | | Ludvigsson | Tobias | Generali | | Masnada | Fausto | Generali | | Rodrigues | Joao | Generali | | Talansky | Andrew | Generali | | Andersen | Soren Kragh | Grieg-Maersk | | Gillett | Rhys | Grieg-Maersk | | Hansen | Lasse Norman | Grieg-Maersk | | Iturria | Mikel | Grieg-Maersk | | Korsaeth | Truls Engen | Grieg-Maersk | | Laengen | Vegard Stake | Grieg-Maersk | | Ringheim | Jo Kogstad | Grieg-Maersk | | Elissonde | Kenny | Indosat Ooredoo | | Goss | Matthew | Indosat Ooredoo | | Keizer | Martijn | Indosat Ooredoo | | Ligthart | Pim | Indosat Ooredoo | | Luchshenko | Sergey | Indosat Ooredoo | | Speirs | Isaac | Indosat Ooredoo | | Warchol | Bartosz | Indosat Ooredoo | | Wolf | Justin | Indosat Ooredoo | | Affonso | Murilo | ISA - Hexacta | | Anacona | Winner | ISA - Hexacta | | Berhane | Natnael | ISA - Hexacta | | Campero | Piter | ISA - Hexacta | | Contreras | Emiliano | ISA - Hexacta | | Ji | Jianhua | ISA - Hexacta | | Mraouni | Salah Eddine | ISA - Hexacta | | Sendeku | Getachew | ISA - Hexacta | | Bizkarra | Mikel | Isostar - Specialized | | Bugge | Vegard Robinson | Isostar - Specialized | | Gibbons | Ryan | Isostar - Specialized | | Novak | Domen | Isostar - Specialized | | Peters | Nans | Isostar - Specialized | | Roglic | Primoz | Isostar - Specialized | | Russo | Clement | Isostar - Specialized | | Azman | Muhamad Zawawi | King Power | | Boonratanathanakorn | Thurakit | King Power | | Fung | Ka Hoo | King Power | | Jakobsen | Fabio | King Power | | Leung | Chun Wing | King Power | | Smith | Dion | King Power | | Teklehaimanot | Daniel | King Power | | Van Winden | Dennis | King Power | | Cink | Ondrej | Moser - Sygic | | Danacik | Jakub | Moser - Sygic | | Granjel Cabrera | Raul | Moser - Sygic | | Hirt | Jan | Moser - Sygic | | Krul | Stef | Moser - Sygic | | McKenna | Sean | Moser - Sygic | | Brozyna | Piotr | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Costagli | Teodoro | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Hayakawa | Tomohiro | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Quintana | Nairo | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Salcone | Jacob | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Sibilla | Michel | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Zhao | Jingbiao | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | Antonijevic | Goran | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Christodoulos | Michael | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Groselj | Matic | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Mestric | Matija | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Penko | Izidor | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Rajovic | Dusan | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Siric | Ivan | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Stavrakakis | Georgios | Swisslion Cycling Team | | Bevin | Patrick | Team Puma - SAP | | Doubey | Fabien | Team Puma - SAP | | Egger | Mike Aaron | Team Puma - SAP | | Ganna | Filippo | Team Puma - SAP | | Oka | Atsushi | Team Puma - SAP | | StĂĽssi | Colin | Team Puma - SAP | | Vasyliv | Yuriy | Team Puma - SAP | | Weinstein | Domenic | Team Puma - SAP | | Foliforov | Alexander | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Kolesnikov | Sergei | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Mamykin | Matvey | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Novikov | Nikita | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Samolenkov | Artem | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Shalunov | Evgeny | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Vorobev | Anton | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Yatsevich | Kiril | Team Tinkoff - La Datcha | | Abreu | Jorge | Team UBS | | Amador | Andrei | Team UBS | | Badilatti | Matteo | Team UBS | | Fuchs | Dominik | Team UBS | | Grigrian | Artur | Team UBS | | Schelling | Patrick | Team UBS | | Schir | Thery | Team UBS | | Thomas | Benjamin | Team UBS | | Alarcon | Jose | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Appollonio | Davide | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Carapaz | Richard Antonio | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Faglum Karlsson | Marcus | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Halvorsen | Kristoffer | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | Tanfield | Harry | Volvo acc. by Spotify |
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 24-11-2020 04:30
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Samolenkov and Yatsevich need the stars aligned for a podium place, otherwise getting into the break for a surprise result is our only option.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-11-2020 06:09
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Stake Laengen and Iturria here for the GC. Hopefully top 25 is possible. Kragh would have loved that opening stage to be a bit shorter. Not sure what to expect there now. A really poor combination of TTs for me this, with this one being possibly a bit too long for Kragh, while the one in T-A is probably a bit too short for Wurtz. Normann Hansen is somewhat a rider in between those, so this could possibly be a great stage for him. Top heavy field. Looking forward to seeing how Lecusinier will do on home soil.
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| roturn |
Posted on 24-11-2020 06:21
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High hopes to finish this in the top10 with Olivier and a top result by Groenewegen in the sprints!
A bit afraid of my team trying to form a train though...
Mountain support of Velits/Machado/Koep is pretty solid in a triple clash I think and should help Olivier late in the race as well.
Good race for Lecuisinier I guess with no other 85 mountain rider at the start, which is interesting and neither Herklotz. Could really be a big one for him here. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 24-11-2020 07:15
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Pretty happy with that startlist I must admit...
Paris-Nice is one of those races we have never won despite having won almost all GC races on the calender at one point, so there are no excuses for Lecuisinier here. While the setup around him isn't perfect by any means it still concludes a 79/75 rider aswell as two 75MO riders and another 72MO rider.
Coquard being the leading sprinter here was always going to be the case, but last season we were lucky with him in a pretty similar Tirreno-setup, so I hope this can be a repeat although the lack of a strong train may hurt him especially in a race like this... I can only hope that Bouglas with his well-rounded stats and powerhouse Karatzios can do what it takes.
In all aspects this is a race where we can only dissapoint I feel. If Coquard and Lecuisinier doesn't split 3/4 stagewins between them it is dissapointing, aswell if Lecuisinier doesn't win the race outright.
The idea on paper was to see Coquard get 6-7th on the prologue and win stage 2 to claim the lead aswell as pts. Then hopefully win stage 4 to keep the points jersey until stage 6 or so.
The last 3 stages should all suit Lecuisinier really well and hopefully he could then clear the plate (except for KOM which is likely to come from the BotD's).
Full of excitement, but ready for dissapointment.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 24-11-2020 10:00
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Looking forward to see the fight among a good amount of strong climbers. The race should really be Lecuisinier's, especially with the home bonus  Which should hold for Coquard, too. Definitely a very important race for Festina.
With Sicard defending his title, the Frenchies definitely have a good shot at the GC, as well as many stage wins.
Of course - repeating myself, I know - I'm looking forward to see Masnada racing again, on a course that should suit him quite well, being a hybrid rider. Let's see if he can pull Talansky to a better result than in Portugal - although this will be really hard with so many top climbers here!
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| matt17br |
Posted on 24-11-2020 10:22
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Very informative preview Ulrich, thank you! Should be another depth race for us. I don't expect Talansky to fight for the top 10, but with a bunch of stage racers here to support him as well it should be more than just a few riders scoring for us (although not massively). Looking forward to the racing!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 24-11-2020 12:35
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I was expecting pretty much all of the GC stars to be here so it's good to see Dombrowski could even push for the win, with a podium becoming the very least of our expectations now.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 24-11-2020 12:35
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While not threatening the podium, looking for Berhane to have a good outing here as is one of the least ITT impacted 'stage racer' stage races given TT's are his achilles heel; fingers crossed for lower top 10 GC. For Berhane, consistently picking up points is his potential route to a good season rather than flashy results. He has pretty strong mountain support that might also prove useful in terms of breaks/KOM hunting, although there is always a good deal of luck required in the latter department. Not listed in the terrain favourites, but decent hopes that Contreras will contest the potential sprint finishes, otherwise will be wasted RD's in his case.
Pretty uncontroversial to expect a French victory in the GC here, although still a potential battle between the two local heavy-weights. Will be interesting to see if Sicard continues his insane levels of aggression in terms of racing style as last season, or whether he has calmed down somewhat.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 24-11-2020 15:59
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Hopeful that Quintana can put in a solid performance here. Elected to bring him over Shikai as there is only 7km of flat TT, which should mean no more than about 20 seconds of time losses. As long as he can more or less stick with the favourites on the actual climbs, I think a Top 10 is reasonable. Also slightly worried that the MTT may use atleast some amount of the hill stat due to the length, which means Quintana is the better pick for us over Shikai as well.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 24-11-2020 17:19
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Morton usually underperforms in those early stage races, so I'm not sure what to expect. Looking at the startlist, the podium must be the goal though. We already need some results after our Portugal horror show.
Looking at the list of sprinters, there's actually some hope for Cam Meyer to score a result 
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| viking90 |
Posted on 24-11-2020 18:09
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Very important race for us! Not sure what to expect from Alarcon but him Carapaz and Appo should be able to get some much needed pts for us!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 24-11-2020 18:41
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Looking forward to see what Gesink can do with this field, though I suspect he doesn't look as lean as he did in '07
Thanks for the preview with the throwback, Ulrich!
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| ember |
Posted on 24-11-2020 21:36
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Very nice preview with a bit of a historical touch. Thank you for that, Ulrich!
A top 15 overall should be doable here for Galta. A top 10 will be very good. Except for a solid GC from Galta, we can't expect much here. Hoping to see our riders be active in breakaways, as we have no sprinter nor top GC rider, which should give the others a green light to join attacks and chase KoM points and possibly stage wins, if we get the right rider up front and they're allowed to fight for a stage win. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 24-11-2020 21:58
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U25 jersey is the target here for Godoy, hopefully he and Kirsch can do ok on the key stages.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 24-11-2020 22:52
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My hope here is some depth scoring with Smith, Teklehaimanot and Azman. Great to see the latter high up in the puncheurs table maybe he can indeed do something in the hilly stages
Also Leung is here again for the prologue but he’ll have a bad day there again so not really worth the mention. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 25-11-2020 09:34
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We're shooting for the depth points and hopefully a breakaway performance.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 25-11-2020 16:11
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Bikex wrote:
Also Leung is here again for the prologue but he’ll have a bad day there again so not really worth the mention.
Jinxed that one! Congrats 
A good team performance from us, but had hoped for better from Kragh. Possibly the rain, possibly the distance or possibly just some "not that great" legs. Prologues always seems to be a bit of a coin toss. Hope to see us on the attack on the coming stages. Stake Laengen and Iturria also with a good start, though those seconds probably wont't be very important in the end.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 25-11-2020 17:04
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Not sure, if that's a bad or solid result for Morton. Surely not the key stage though, so no need to think about it too long.. Top-10 for Meyer, which doesn't give us anything of value at this point. If he somehow can be in the mix for sprints, it would be nice however.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 25-11-2020 17:12
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Filippo Ganna!! 8th on the day for a lvl3 rider, take that world! 
Oh I'm so excited to see him max out.
If stage 3 is ridden slowly, maybe he can even keep the jersey until stage 5?
5 points we gladly take here, as the team's not expected to pick up any stage points and we're at most hoping for a low Top 20 for one of Vasyliv (who had a good TT) or StĂĽssi (who didn't) in absence of our two best climbers, if they manage to get recognized by the AI.
Alternatively, maybe 77mo fits the KoM hunter category already and we can try to take that jersey. There are plenty of points available outside of stage finishes.
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