I’ve never done a preview before, but I’ve decided to try and do one for PCT since we’re the only division missing out on the fun so far!
I’ll try to get through every team as quick as possible, but as I haven’t prepped anything in advance and I only have a few hours to work on this every night, it might take a little while. I’ll post the first six write-ups I’ve done now though and then post five at a time until I'm finished. The write-ups will be posted in reverse alphabetical order.
The table will include a strength coefficient which can be interpreted as ‘squad strength compared to the median team of the division’ (i.e. the average coefficient of the teams ranked 13th and 14th will be 1.00). You’ll for example notice that the teams placed 3th to 7th will have an extremely similar coefficient, meaning I find it nearly impossible to separate these teams from eachother. Meanwhile there is big drop from 7th to 9th, meaning I think it will be tough for teams ranking 9th or below to be in the promotion fight.
With unique rider types and good depth across a multitude of terrains, the foundation is certainly in place for Xero to improve on last year’s 12th place.
George Bennett was the team’s best scorer last year and looks set to be again with his bump from 80 to 81 mountain and the improved support in Areruya and Schleck, who both has seen their stats increase in the off-season. The competition in the mountains is however also tougher, and I’m not convinced the above will translate into increased scoring compared to last year for the Kiwi.
Areruya will nevertheless provide great value for the team, as an outside contender for stage races that combine mountains and hills. Him and Xandro Meurisse complement each other well in that regard, as Meurisse also climbs well, but is slightly more explosive than Areruya and thus a good option for the slightly easier hill races. And when the hills aren’t hard enough to cause splits, Hugo Houle is of course there to win the sprint! Houle ended top 50 in the individual rankings last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score similarly again, although Ackermann and Yates’ training will provide increased competition.
On the cobbles, Debesay, Rowe and Schreurs form a dangerous trio with the first two expected to bring in the points. Debesay’s hill and TT strength should see him score better than comparable cobblers, whereas Rowe could pick up points when the cobbles fail to cause major splits. He is first and foremost a sprinter however, and his 78 flat should help him do better than most other 79 sprinters.
All in all, a strong team, but I fear Xero is one big-point scorer away from being a clear promotion candidate this year. Prediction: 9th place.
Valio – Viking Genetics
Manager: Atlantius Last season: 10th [PCT]
Valio came up from CT last year and finished in a strong 10th place. I think they’ll be there or thereabouts again.
There were several interesting changes for Valio this transfer season. The trio Gautier, Talansky and Nepomnyachsniy scored a combined 1755 points last year, but before this season, Gautier has declined and the latter two has left the team. With the signings of Maxime Daniel and Pierre Paolo Penasa, the team will however remain a force to be reckoned with in most terrains.
Penasa will be the main man in the mountains and will undoubtedly face some pressure, being the highest paid rider in the division at a wage of €880,000. The Italian only managed to score 326 points for Kulczyk last year however and could have some trouble meeting the high expectations, especially as the competition in the mountains has increased compared to last year. Daniel meanwhile, could benefit from eased cobbled sections with his strong finish. I can see him end up being among the best scoring cobblers of the division this year and Chatarunga and Kulppi will also provide good support.
Gautier was one of very few pure puncheurs who did very well last season, but might struggle a bit more this year, having gotten to 33 years of age. Matti Manninen should on the other hand continue to be a great option for the sprints, especially having seen his sprinter stat bumped to 81. Additionally, his 75 resistance can’t be matched by many other sprinters, which should help him punch above his weight.
Good riders across most terrains and good depth for the most part should see Valio on the top half of the table, but they might struggle to get into the promotion fight. Prediction: 12th place.
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
Manager: fjhoekie Last season: 6th [PCT]
They narrowly missed out on promotion last year, but this time, the margins may very well be on their side.
Aleksandr Pluchkin won the individual rankings in PCT last year, ending up with an incredible 1708 points. The team is relying on another successful season from him to achieve promotion, but having declined for the first time and facing new competition from for example Robert Gesink, it could be tough to replicate the massive season he had last year. With the signing of Ackermann and maxing of Mark Padun, some of the pressure is however taken off his shoulders. Padun, like Pluchkin, is a climber, but is slightly punchier and not as good a time trialist, meaning the pair should complement each other fairly well.
In the hills, Oleksandr Prevar will have most of the responsibility. His decent enough climbing ability and great stamina saw him scoring 495 points last year, and slightly weaker competition this year could see him repeat that score and perhaps even add to it. In Ackermann, Popo4Ever have also gotten a rider that can challenge for the slightly less challenging hilly races. There is however some uncertainty over his scoring potential, as he perhaps lacks the top speed to contest normal bunch sprints and his mountain stat is not the best.
In terms of TTers, cobblers and sprinters, there isn’t really a whole lot to talk about. Lutsyshyn might get an occasional good result in a sprint and Golovash is a fairly decent time trialist, but there’s definitely room for improvement in all three departments. Nevertheless, riders like Laas, Andriafenomananiaina, Bratashcuk and more should provide great depth scoring behind Pluchkin and Prevar and help propel Popo4Ever towards promotion.
A team very much focused on climbers, puncheurs and stage racers, but they’re so good there that it might just be enough to secure them promotion to the PT. Prediction: 3rd place.
Swisslion Cycling Team
Manager: redordead Last season: 18th [PCT]
Swisslion survived their debut PCT season last year, much thanks to one of last year's biggest revelations: Eduard Beltran. Much is still on his shoulders, but can he deliver as well as last season?
There are several factors that can contribute towards making that a big challenge: Beltran has fewer race days compared to last year, competition has improved with the likes of Buchmann, Gesink and Preidler all entering the division, hilly stages have been subject to unfavorable changes, and the hill support is lacking with Bilbao and Seibeb out of the team. Nevertheless, I would be very surprised if he doesn't score very well again this year, being arguably the best puncheur in the divison. There are undoubtedly more question marks this year compared to last year for the Colombian, however.
The team's second best scorer from last year, Gerald Ciolek, has also left, but in Kris Boeckmans, Swisslion has found nearly a like-for-like replacement. The Belgian was very impressive for Campari last year, but having declined in the off-season, some of the top speed is now lost. I would expect him to score well again this year however, though he might find himself working for another new addition occasionally as Lachen Saber has also joined the team. While he doesn't possess Boeckmans' acceleration, Saber is slightly faster, more resistant and better on the cobbles. All are factors that should contribute to a good season for Saber and this is an addition that also should elevate some of the pressure on Beltran.
Behind the mentioned leaders, riders like Ablenado, Giogieri, Mottin and Gilanipoor should contribute with depth scoring, whereas Nepomnyachsniy will be a solid point scorer in stage races that combine mountains and time trials.
A solid window for Swisslion, and I'd expect them to improve slightly on last year. With the team being concentrated around a few key riders, the road to the relegation battle might prove short should Beltran struggle, however. Prediction: 16th place.
Repsol - Netflix
Manager: Aquarius97 Last season: 20th [PT]
Great depth, strong leaders and a crazy TT-setup makes Repsol a team to watch out for in the promotion battle.
Despite a much lower salary cap in PCT, this year's edition of Repsol doesn't look a whole lot weaker than the squad they had in PT last season. Merhawi Kudus stays on as the main man in the mountains and should be among the best-scoring climbers of the divison. Rosan, Pedrero, Herrada and Benito are quality domestiques and should pick up minor points along the way themselves. For the stage races that combine mountains, hills and time trials, Eddie Dunbar could also be a great asset. Sepulveda impressed in PCT last season, and Dunbar only lacks a bit in the hills compared to the ISA-rider. Repsol doesn't have a pure puncheur, but that should open up for riders like Trofimov, Rodriguez, Mosca, Barbero and Bernas to get their own results. If they all score a little here and there, that could add up to a decent amount of points across the entirety of the season.
The most eye-catching feature of the team is undoubtedly the TT-department. With Zmorka, Kittel and Gonzales Salas in the same team, other teams are going to have a tough time in TTT's this season. Zmorka stands out as the strongest of the trio with 82 TT and good resistance to back it up, but also the latter two should contribute well. That being said, none of three handle hills very well, which will impact their scoring potential to some degree.
The manager has taken an interesting decision to completely ignore sprinters this season, while the cobbles department is limited to only two riders. Sep Vanmarcke is however among the best cobblers of the division, although the easened cobbles sectors might not play in his favor. While Ruiz is alright, the support for Vanmarcke is weak, but one decent domestique is certainly a lot better than none and I don't think it will hurt the Belgian's chances too much.
Overall, a seriously impressive squad with both quality leaders and impressive depth. I think Repsol have what it takes to bounce back to PT, but they will certainly be under pressure from a couple of other teams. Prediction: 5th place.
Polar
Manager: beagle Last season: 15th [PCT]
Degenkolb has left the team, but in turn, the squad is greatly improved in every other terrain. Polar is one to be reckoned with in the promotion battle this season.
Last year, the main bulk of the team's points came from only two riders: John Degenkolb and Ion Izagirre. Both ended top 10 in the individual rankings, but only the latter remain in the team this season. Even though Izagirre has fewer race days than last year, his skills on the TT-bike makes the puncheur a candidate for the top 10 once again. Gesink coming down to PCT could put a dent in his aspirations, but I have doubts that the two riders will cross paths many times this season.
With Degenkolb out, the points have to come from someone else, and this year they will come from a plethora of riders. As a replacement for the sprints, Polar has brought in Tom Van Asbroeck, while they have Betancourt for the pure hilly races, Robert Bush for the cobbles and Ryan Mullen/Emilien Viennet for the TTs. None of the mentioned riders are the best in their respective areas, but together, they should be capable of replacing the points lost with Degenkolb's departure.
But it doesn't stop there, because Polar also has one of the coolest riders of the division in Pierre Latour. Despite his mountain stat "only" being 79, his excellent back-up stats of 80 stamina and 78 resistance should make his scoring potential closer to that of the average 80 or 81 rider. His fighter stat of 80 is also interesting, as it might mean that we will see Latour on the attack regularly. If just a few of those attempts are successful, Latour's scoring could skyrocket and make him one of the most efficient riders of the year in terms of points per euro earned. Soler and Bernal will also provide good support for the Frenchman.
I predict Polar to be a promotion challenger this year, and it will be interesting to see if they have enough about them to step into the top 5. A good season from Latour could make that happen. Prediction: 6th place.
Yay, a PCT preview Thought we might have been forgotten! And a first for me in seeing reverse alphabetical order for a preview, much appreciated
Enjoying it so far, like the texts for each team and the format of the ranking with the coefficient scores showing how close teams are. For us I haven't looked much at the division yet but I guess you're right that (much like last year) we miss that extra something (or as you said someone) to break into the promotion spots (I think it could be about strength in depth as much as an extra scorer, we have a lot of less than brilliant spots currently due to the amount of talents ), but should be in somewhere in the next group below. Quite pleased you put us near the top of that group, will certainly take 9th
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
Great to see that now every division has one qualitative preview being worked on. I like the idea of your squad strength coefficient as those gaps between some teams and same level predictions are often difficult to show and sometimes lead to missunderstandings. I like your work so far
I like a lot the rating you gave the team, reflecting better the team's strenght instead of only place in the standings. I agree with your assessment of my team, in the direct promotion fight, but things will be tight up there
Looking forward to the remaining ones. Always nice to see different previews, giving time to see how other teams have evolved. So far a very nice read and agree with lots of what you say.
Post season comparing the preview with outcome always a funny read.
Woo hoo! PCT preview... Lots of spaces at the bottom and not many places left at the top... Interested to see where we end up in the preview and a great read so far
Thanks for the nice comments, guys! Here's part two:
Podium Ambition
Manager: TheManxMissile Last season: 22th [PT]
Podium Ambition relegated from PT last season, and I'm afraid they will find themselves in the lower half of the table this year as well.
Despite the relegation, there's been few major changes in Podium Ambition's roster. Caleb Ewan stays on and will undoubtedly be the team's most important rider. He could very well be the best sprinter of the division this year, and with six more riders in the team with 76+ in sprint, he should have a good lead-out ahead of him on all occasions. The best sprinter in PCT last season, Jonas Ahlstrand, ended up with 1136 points, but with slightly weaker resistance and acceleration and fierce competition from e.g. Swift, Gaviria, Kump, Guarnieri, Kemboi and more, Ewan might struggle to reach those numbers. Behind Ewan, I'd also expect Jens Keukeleire and Ricki Nelson to have chances of scoring sprint results for themselves. The pair only have 68 and 64 in resistance however, which will make it hard to score as well as other 80 and 81 sprinters. I also wonder if there's enough flat races on the calendar to truly get the most out of their potential.
Podium Ambition's secondary focus is the cobbles, where they also have a very strong team. Marcos Altur is the main man, and with his great cobble skills, ability to get over a hill or two and good finish, he sticks out as one of the best cobblers of the division. Owen, Insausti, Domene, Matthews and Edmondon should provide good support and furthermore contribute with depth scoring.
In other departments, it has to be said that Podium Ambition is lacking in both quality and depth. To be fair, Alexandor Cataford is a good time trialist and should gather a decent amount of points, but in mountainous and hilly races, the team is going to struggle. With the scoring potential of cobblers being somewhat limited compared to that of other rider types, I do think Podium Ambition would have benefitted greatly from strengthening their squad in at least one of these areas.
The quality of the sprint and cobbles department should be high enough to keep Podium Ambition out of a relegation battle, but they might need a bit of luck to achieve much more than that. Prediction: 19th place.
Nordstrom – CA Technologies
Manager: whitejersey Last season: 5th [CT]
Nordstrom promoted from CT last year and will hope the signing of Marko Kump is enough to avoid relegation.
Thomas Faiers was the most important rider for Nordstrom in PCT last year, but has gone through his first decline in the off-season. He's still a fairly decent rider however, and he should continue to score some points in stage races that combine mountains and time trials. The depth in the mountains is good in general, with Diaz, Grmay, De Vos and Gaspar also being riders capable of scoring >100 points across a season in PCT. The same goes for the hills where Dyrnes, Duchesne, Villella and Diggle all could be decent scorers, with the first mentioned being the best of the bunch much due to his mountain stat.
Much of Nordstrom's success will depend on Marko Kump however, who surely must be considered the best punchy sprinter of the division. His scoring potential is thus undoubtfully very high, but in order to make the most of it, the manager has to get the planning right. The key will be to avoid hilly races that are too difficult and flat races that are too easy, which sometimes can be tricky. Nordstrom has got Boivin and Van Poppel to support Kump, which is a great lead-out on paper. I'd also expect Boivin to have the opportunity to get some good results for himself and end up with a decent score at the end of the season.
In terms of cobblers, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck had a good season in CT last year, but will struggle to have the same impact at PCT level. He's still a good cobbler however, and him and Kumara should be expected to contribute a decent amount of points.
I think Nordstrom have just enough about them to stay up this season, but much will depend on getting Kump's race plan right. Prediction: 20th place.
MOL
Manager: jaxika Last season: 20th [PCT]
MOL were just 19 points away from relegation last year, but after a fantastic transfer season, I think they will find themselves at the other end of the rankings this time around.
Ki Ho Choi was the team's best scoring rider last year and should be of great value again, considering that he's both a great climber, a decent puncheur and a good time trialist. This year he has another rider ahead of him however, as Mattia Cattaneo has joined from Farfetch. Cattaneo's superb resistance and great climbing ability means he's dangerous in the mountains, but he's also one of the absolute best time trialists in the division. His hill stat is only 70 however, which could get in the way a little bit. Like with Marko Kump, good planning will thus be key to get the most out his very high scoring potential. Behind Choi and Catteneo, Pomoshnikov and Stancu should provide fantastic support, with the first mentioned being good enough to land some fine results himself.
As for puncheurs, Zico Waeytens has been brought in to take over the leadership responsibility. Waeytens has been a frustrating rider in the past, but had a fine 2019 season, and with slightly weaker competition this time around, I'd expect him to do well again. Gebrezgabihier meanwhile, struggled for much of last year and might do so again. Weaker competition should help him to do slightly better however, and changes in hill stage design could also benefit him.
Moving on to sprinters, Roman Maskimov was MOL's leader last season, and this year he will couple up with Ivano Lo Cicero. Lo Cicero is the fastest sprinter in the division, but is held back somewhat by comparably slow acceleration and weak resistance. He did score 420 points for Europcar last year however, and I'd expect him to be of similar value this season. Maksimov meanwhile, scored 365 points last year, but could struggle to reach those numbers with another sprinter ahead of him in the pecking order. Lovassy and Martinez are not the best lead-outs, and MOL will have to hope the game will allow Lo Cicero to surf on other sprinters' wheels in order to avoid some frustration this year. Being decent cobblers, the pair could provide some minor points in the classics however.
Overall, I'm seriously impressed by MOL's quality and depth. I think this could be the second best squad of the division, although they could quickly drop down the rankings if the planning isn't top notch. Prediction: 2nd place.
Minions
Manager: Marcovdw Last season: 14th [PCT]
Minions ended 14th last year, but with Uran and Claeys declining, they might need a bit of luck to improve on that.
Among the top riders, there's not been many changes for Minions this transfer season. Daniel Vesely replaces Damion Drapac as sprint leader however, which surely must be considered an upgrade. Vesely scored 200 points in PT last season and should do slightly better than that at PCT level, although his somewhat low resistance will hold him back a little bit. Dusan Kalaba will likely get a few opportunities to chase stage wins when he isn't supporting Vesely, and should also contribute with a few points.
Rigoberto Uran and Dimitri Claeys stays on as the team's primary climber and puncheur, respectively. The pair scored a combined 1340 points last season, but both have declined in the off-season, which could make it hard to achieve such a score again. Uran's combination of 81 mo, 77 TT and 80 res, can't be matched by many however, and I'd expect the Colombian to continue to be among the highest scoring climbers of the division. Chad Haga will meanwhile continue to contribute with depth scoring behind Uran, and will also be a key part of team's TTT setup alongside van Rensburg, Rekita and more. As for Claeys, his low resistance stat could prove to be more of an issue after his decline, but changes in stage design and no competition from Kinoshita and Kelderman should somewhat easen the negative effects of that.
Minions will furthermore hope Ruben Zepuntke can step up his performances somewhat from last year, where he only scored 296 points despite having 81 in cobbles. Low stats in flat, mountain and acceleration might explain some of his struggles, in which case I'm struggling to see why he should perform any better this year. Bert-Jan Lindeman should be a useful domestique however, and also one who can bring some points in a sprint if the cobbles fail to create gaps.
Good depth for the most part and competitive in most terrains, but I'm a bit worried that the weak back-up stats of some of the leaders will see Minions end up at the bottom half of the table. Prediction: 17th place.
Mapei
Manager: Heine Last season: 18th [PT]
Quality riders like Tejay Van Garderen, Sergio Henao and Georg Preidler has left the team, yet Mapei might just have the strongest squad of the division.
With Henao and Preidler out of the team, Rasmus Guldhammer will have the main responsibility in the mountains. Although his stamina and resistance is slighthly weaker than that of comparable riders like Kudus and Monsalve, Guldhammer makes up for that by being slightly punchier with 77 hill and 76 acceleration. The best puncheur in the squad is however Emanuel Buchmann, who with 76 mountain and 81 hills will provide some competition for last year's dominating puncheur/climber hybrid; Swisslion's Beltran. Buchmann isn't quite on Beltran's level in terms of climbing ability or acceleration, but could very well end up becoming Mapei's best scorer this season nonetheless.
In Vandousselaere, Predatsch, Balloni, Atkins and Fiedler, Mapei has also got a strong TTT team. Fiedler is the only 82 TT'er in the division other than Marlen Zmorka, and will for sure be one to watch out for this season. His resistance and prologue stats are slightly below that of Zmorka, but he's also quite a bit stronger on the flats, which I think should put the two at about the same level. Like Zmorka, Fiedler isn't the best going uphill, which could limit his scoring potential somewhat, considering the number of hilly TT races on the calendar.
For the northern classics, Matteo Trentin is the main man. With his ability to handle hills better than most other cobblers and his fast sprint, I think Trentin could end up being the second best scoring cobbler of the division after Summerhill. His support is limited however, which could be an issue for a rider that, to some extent, will need to rely on his sprint to win races. For the bunch sprints, Rick Zabel and Andrea Guardini will take on the leadership responsibility. Although none of them are among the very best in their area, they should both score well in PCT.
Mapei has fantastic leaders in every area, and for the most part, good depth to back them up. I can't see anyone beating this team this season. Prediction: 1st place.
I can imagine we're a pain of a team to predict, because we openly and actively ignore the conventional scoring around GC's and Hills. Anything above 22nd keeps me happy, and having seen Ewan & Altur go well in the PT i feel reasonably confident we can manage that having improved our support behind both of them.
I'll take comfort that between us and relegation is 0.07, but that same gap would rise us to 10th
I guess 16th is okay as the main priority is to stay up and as TMM has also mentioned we are closer to top 10 than relegation via the coefficient
Same as last year our fortunes will depend on Beltran, but I feel I did a solid job of getting some other scorers alongside him this year. So hopefully it's not the 2.25 leaders show we had last year
Also I don't really remember anyone ever predicting us higher than we actually finished, so I hope we can keep that run going
Very interesting reading so far. I'm curious to see where you put my team.
Mapei clearly a favorite at the top of the table, I just don't know if I would put MOL as runner-up, unfortunately Catteneo has had a clear tendency to fail in recent seasons.
Thought we might have been forgotten! And a first for me in seeing reverse alphabetical order for a preview, much appreciated 
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