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Down Under Classic Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 19-08-2018 22:01
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Directeur Sportif
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 Down Under Classic
The traditional season opener for the PCT will be held for the 10th time this year: the Down Under Classic through Albert Park, Melbourne. The short and flat classic will obviously feature a packed startlist with many many top sprinters from the division. Even though we did have an upsetting winner in 2015 (Mark Dzamastagic/Evonik), where a handful of roleurs fooled the sprinters, we should fancy the chances for a battle between the division's fastest guys to go for line honours.
Defending race winner Óscar Guerao will be at the start again, just like 2016 winner Ivano Lo Cicero and with Erik Mohs (winner back in 2010) we will also have a third favorite, who's on the honour roll at the Down Under Classic.
The Startlist
The Favorites | RIDER | | | FL | SP | AC | | RIDER | | | FL | SP | AC |  Degenkolb | | | 76 | 84 | 81 | |  Roelandts | | | 74 | 80 | 79 |  Lo Cicero | | | 72 | 84 | 78 | |  Moser | | | 72 | 80 | 79 |  Mohs | | | 75 | 83 | 82 | | Petit | | | 76 | 80 | 78 |  Ewan | | | 75 | 83 | 81 | |  Van Asbroeck | | | 75 | 80 | 78 |  Cavendish | | | 73 | 83 | 81 | |  Lavoine | | | 73 | 80 | 78 |  Guerao | | | 74 | 83 | 76 | |  Kragh Andersen | | | 77 | 80 | 77 |  Goss | | | 74 | 82 | 78 | |  Granjel Cabrera | | | 75 | 80 | 77 |  Vantomme | | | 73 | 82 | 78 | | Bouhanni | | | 74 | 80 | 77 | | Nelson | | | 72 | 81 | 81 | |  Ulanowski | | | 73 | 80 | 77 |  Saber | | | 75 | 81 | 79 | |  Meyer | | | 72 | 80 | 76 |  Holloway | | | 78 | 80 | 82 | |  Rowe | | | 72 | 80 | 70 |  Itami | | | 75 | 80 | 82 | |  Lay | | | 73 | 79 | 81 | | Guardini | | | 72 | 80 | 82 | | Hayakawa | | | 73 | 79 | 79 | | Stauff | | | 74 | 80 | 81 | | Stepniak | | | 72 | 79 | 79 |
The top favorite for the race is John Degenkolb though. The veteran wants to be the third German to take this race, with Erik Mohs (2010) and André Greipel (2013) featuring the list of former race winners here. He certainly has the skills to be considered a real threat, but obviously, the competition is fierce and there won't be an "easy" way to fullfil his role as the most promising sprinter.
Ivano Lo Cicero, winner in 2016, lacks the acceleration, but has the top speed to go for his second DUC title. Riding for a new team, it will be interesting to see, how he will perform in this first real test for the sprinters. As already mentioned, Erik Mohs will join him as another former race winner trying to repeat his previous success: the German, in his final year of prime, may still remember his sweet victory from eight years back - but does he still have the legs to repeat this win?
Mark Cavendish (runner-up at the Down Under Classic in 2011) should be considered a real threat for those top favorites. Just like Mohs, the 32 years old veteran probably won't have another year amongst the very best, so he should be top motivated to take this (maybe) final chance for a first victory in this prestigious HC race. The same goes for local hero Matthew Goss (runner-up in 2017 and 2010) and Maxime Vantomme (who has Top-10'd this race four times in the last five seasons, with his 3rd place last year as the best result). Both come with a similar skillset and like Óscar Guerao (last year's winner), with a lack of acceleration. Cavendish should be rated better, but the mentioned trio all sprinted for the podium here just on year ago: will they somehow manage to repeat their success?
Caleb Ewan though.. after some years of delevopment, the young Australian is finally considered to have come to his full potential and there's no doubt, that he should be amongst the division's best sprinters already this season. The 24 years old sprinter will obviously be a fan favorite in this Down Under Classic and the pressure here can already be felt: the last (and only Australian) to win the DUC was Allan Davis (2011 and 2012) and it should be clear, that the locals expect Ewan to grab at least the same amount of DUC titles. Can he already write his name on the honour roll this year? He should have a great final leadout with Ricki Nelson at his side. A powerful Aussie duo, for sure.
Some more possible threats with only outsiders' chances then: Lahcen Saber, Dan Holloway, Kenji Itami, Andreas Stauff or Jurgen Roelandts. A very good daily form will be needed for those guys to be a the very front of the bunch, but it's no mission impossible and we've seen upsetting winners before.
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| Vien |
Posted on 19-08-2018 22:11
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Hell yeah, the season starts.. Let's go! 
Hopefully Meyer can have a bit of a home adventage, cause he's gonna need it in this field. Top 20 or being in the break is my goal. |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 19-08-2018 22:23
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Classics Specialist
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Brought out Farrar for this one, no reason to waste RDs on Boivin in a race where he is almost guranteed to zeropoint it. Gonna assume that Degenkolb takes this.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 19-08-2018 22:25
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World Champion
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Here we go! The race is a bit too easy for us, so just a top 10 will do 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 19-08-2018 22:44
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Knew well ahead of time that WCC would sit at or near the bottom of the bookies favourite list whoever we had as designated 'lead' sprinter. Hence we save JAC a couple of RD's to use elsewhere, and instead Lay can fail to participate in the sprint instead  .
After this was originally forseen, it was indeed then hoped for as primed at the BotD opportunity end of the start-list, fingers crossed. Unlikely, but we are alternatively set-up half-decently in case wind becomes a major factor and turns this into a slug-out between the flat-beasts, so although unusual at this time of year in Oz, we are praying for tough weather conditions in Melbourne for the race.
Like for the CT opener, an outside favourite often prevails over the top listed guy(s). If a flat-out sprint does materialise, really excited to see if we get 4 lead-out trains vying for superiority!
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 19-08-2018 23:16
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I've gotta hope that Moser/Bouhanni/Lovato/Vingerling can try get a Top 10 here as that would be a good start to the season. Would obviously be great if they could go one better for a Top 5 or even top honours.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 19-08-2018 23:19
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As is tradition, we're just here cause we're forced to.
Thankd for kicking the PCT off tsmoha!
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 19-08-2018 23:35
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First time we are lining up a real sprinter in a race. We'll see how that goes. A quick look at only SPR/ACC stats makes Roelandts to be like the 15th best sprinter, and having not the best of support makes me think that he might struggle to get a good result here.
Honestly, i'm hoping for a Top10 here. Roelandts has never been a top sprinter in the PT, and all season has always come out with some wins, so hopefully he can get in the good train. If i can get more than 10-15 points from this race i'll be happy
Also, Vanmarcke is here in case some rouler presence is need in the late attacks like we used to be last season in CT. The rest of the team is basically made of young rider looking for XP, so maybe one of them can go in the early break.
I'm going to say Mohs to win the race thanks to Guardini's leadout
Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 19-08-2018 23:56
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Thanks for the preview tsmoha, looking forward to seeing how the improved Kraftwerk train performs against the improved sprint competition. Need Cav to podium in this kind of race to have any chance of hitting the Top 10 goal at the end of the season.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 20-08-2018 01:40
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I'm getting a little giddy because it's AKA's first race for me in two years and his first ever as leader. They grow up so fast.
That being said, no expectations. That's why I didn't send Appo here. The field is insane as always and a top 20 for AKA or even just a guy in the attack would be a success in my eyes.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 20-08-2018 03:39
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That startlist is insane We were so close to taking the victory last year and missed out by centimetres, hopefully Goss supported by two 80+Fl beasts can spring a surprise.
Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 20-08-2018 03:40
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We'll have to wait for our debut in PCT - one year Jams or Kennett will take this one out, but this year is not that year
Plenty of likeable characters to cheer on here, go Vantomme though!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 20-08-2018 03:56
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Hayakawa is the leader over Itami, who you'd think would suit this stage more is a bit puzzling. This stage suits Itami maybe the best of any other flat stage this year too, give or take a couple I could be forgetting. Our team finally has a decent flat team now though, so hopefully the better support can mean better results in the sprints for us, than last year.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 20-08-2018 04:10
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First battle versus Mohs very own former master will be starting in this race. I know that usually this race can go to an unexpected winner, which is why I took Ignatiev with me for insurance.
A top 5 will be considered a good result in my eyes
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 20-08-2018 06:03
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Solid startlist here from Azteca... a quickly declining Granjel Cabrera and seven level 1.00s to support him!
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-08-2018 06:40
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An interesting startlist.
Hopefully Lo Cicero closer to his 2016 than his 2017 self.
Far too good for such heavy underperforming.
Degenkolb the big one here but former team mate and leadout Mohs could surprise him while Ewan with a nice lineup behind him is the home bet. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 20-08-2018 07:38
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Will be interesting to see which 80 SP riders even get involved in the sprint, as surely many won't.
valverde321 wrote:
Hayakawa is the leader over Itami, who you'd think would suit this stage more is a bit puzzling. This stage suits Itami maybe the best of any other flat stage this year too, give or take a couple I could be forgetting. Our team finally has a decent flat team now though, so hopefully the better support can mean better results in the sprints for us, than last year.
Surely you've learnt to ignore the order in the startlist image by now?
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 20-08-2018 07:42
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Awesome, first race of the season!
Never really sure what to expect here, especially with the short length but maybe Vantomme can double up on his podium from last year.
4 riders debuting for our team as well, will be interesting to see if Cherkasov will be of any use this season and if LNH decides to make an impact either by helping Vantomme or trying to pull a Dzama.
Either way, excited to see the season kick off, thanks for the preview too tsmoha!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 20-08-2018 07:56
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Expecting nothing here, hoping for a miracle. Maybe a break win for Darren Young?
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 20-08-2018 08:21
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Early opportunity to see Saber in action although a top 10 is what I can realistically hope for I think. Will also be an indication of whether Krieger and Te Brake can help him at all this season.
Thanks for the preview
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