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Volta a Portugal Discussion
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 28-02-2018 15:40
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This is the longest race on the calendar barring the GTs, both World Tour and Continental Tour. Starting off with what must be the shortest stage on the calendar (or close to it at least), this race goes on to cover four hill stages, a long, hard slog on the mountains and another ITT. There are also four categorized flat stages for the sprinters to have their fun.
| Name | MON | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | ACC |  | Gesink | 83 | 81 | 80 | 78 | 80 | 80 | 68 |  | Herklotz | 81 | 75 | 72 | 77 | 78 | 76 | 75 |  | Yates | 79 | 76 | 71 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 76 |  | Beltran | 79 | 79 | 66 | 73 | 72 | 72 | 76 |  | Keinath | 79 | 76 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 70 |  | Bibby | 77 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 71 | | Kangert | 75 | 77 | 77 | 76 | 75 | 75 | 72 |  | Nepomnyachsniy | 77 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 75 | 77 | 75 |  | Choi | 80 | 74 | 75 | 77 | 76 | 79 | 68 |  | Sanchez Gil | 75 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 72 | | Goos | 77 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 75 | 76 | 73 |  | Chiarello | 78 | 75 | 73 | 73 | 74 | 77 | 72 |
Head and shoulders above everyone on the startlist is Gesink, with his incredible combination of climbing, puncher and time trialing abilities. If he doesn't win this race, it'll be one of the upsets of the season!
Defending champion Silvio Herklotz is the only one in the field that comes anywhere close to Gesink's climbing abilities. Relative weakness in the hills and the TT will make it very hard for him to overcome.
Adam Yates will be carrying the hopes of his team to pull them away from danger. The yound Briton needs to be at his best, his team needs it.
Keinath's main weakness is his acceleration, but if he can hang on to the duo mentioned above, he is won't be far off achieving a podium place.
Beltran is a better puncher than both the previous two contenders, but his woeful TT skills will mean he will be giving up a lot of time on Stage 10. It is for this reason that he perhaps more a top 5 contender than a podium contender.
Two Gazelle riders, Kangert and Bibby, both excellent all-rounders make up the next level of competition. The mountain stage is where their push for the top 5 might be scuppered.
Nepomnyachsniy had a great race here last season and would be hoping for a repeat performance. Like Ayubowan!, Nemiroff too are anxious for every point available at this late stage of the season.
Choi is a very strong climber, but his lower puncher capabilities might hold him back from a top result. He rides for yet another team looking at a possible drop in a couple of months.
Sanchez Gil, Goos and Chiarello have a good combination of stats but are not particularly strong anywhere.
| Name | MON | HIL | TT | STA | RES | REC | ACC | | Boswell | 71 | 80 | 67 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 76 | | Reis | 80 | 73 | 76 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 63 |  | Quintana | 81 | 74 | 71 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 65 |  | Vakoc | 71 | 80 | 69 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 74 | | Bongiorno | 79 | 75 | 68 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 69 |  | Moazemi | 73 | 78 | 69 | 72 | 72 | 75 | 73 | | Konrad | 75 | 76 | 71 | 76 | 73 | 72 | 69 | | Ji | 80 | 75 | 69 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 65 |
A common with theme with all of the riders mentioned above is that they are very strong in one of three terrains that will decide this race, but are much weaker in the other two. Konrad is the only exception to this.
| Name | HIL | STA | RES | REC | ACC | | Gesink | 81 | 78 | 80 | 80 | 68 | | Vakoc | 80 | 75 | 71 | 67 | 74 | | Boswell | 80 | 77 | 73 | 71 | 76 |  | Dowsett | 80 | 74 | 69 | 67 | 71 | | Beltran | 79 | 73 | 72 | 72 | 76 |  | Barrio | 79 | 69 | 63 | 65 | 67 | | Demare | 79 | 75 | 72 | 80 | 81 |
Gesink is the strongest puncher in the field, which goes a long way in making him the top favourite. Vakoc, Dowsett and Boswell are also quite strong and genuine stage win contenders. The latter will be a strong lieutenant to Gesink!
The others who are strong on the hills are mentioned in the table above.
| Name | MON | STA | RES | REC | ACC | | Gesink | 83 | 78 | 80 | 80 | 68 | | Herklotz | 81 | 77 | 78 | 76 | 75 | | Quintana | 81 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 65 | | Choi | 80 | 77 | 76 | 79 | 68 | | Reis | 80 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 63 | | Ji | 80 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 65 | | Nerz | 80 | 75 | 72 | 74 | 68 | | Vinhas | 80 | 74 | 75 | 73 | 62 |
Once again, Gesink tops the charts here, this time for the climbers. Herklotz and Nairo Quintana are the next strongest and should be up there challenging on Stage 9. Choi and Ji are the Compal pair who will have the burden of carrying their out of danger in this race. Nerz makes it a Puma pair in terms of climbing while Vinhas (Porto - Prio) is also quite strong.
| Name | TT | | Kittel | 81 | | Gesink | 80 | | Viennet | 80 |  | Dempster | 79 |  | Olman | 79 | | Jungels | 78 | | Balloni | 78 |
Gesink is beaten somewhere, but he is still second favourite to Kittel in the TT! Viennet should be the other big challenger for the stage. None of the TT specialists other than Gesink will have much of a chance in the GC.
| Name | PRL | | Kittel | 81 | | Gesink | 80 | | Viennet | 80 | | Dempster | 79 | | Olman | 79 | | Jungels | 78 | | Balloni | 78 |
The same riders who are good in the TT are good in the Prologue. Realistically, Gesink has the chance to get the jersey on this stage and not lose it for the entire race! Kittel will be hoping to prevent that and live up his top billing.
| Name | SPR | ACC | | Avelino | 83 | 78 |  | Ewan | 81 | 79 | | Vesely | 81 | 80 |  | Itami | 80 | 82 | | Demare | 80 | 81 | | Kupfernagel | 80 | 80 | | Van Poppel | 80 | 78 |  | Drapac | 80 | 79 | | Te Brake | 79 | 76 | | Soupe | 79 | 77 |  | Bertilsson | 79 | 77 | | Santos | 79 | 75 | | Coutinho | 79 | 80 | | Krasnov | 78 | 77 | | Wippert | 78 | 82 |  | Modolo | 78 | 81 |
Despite there being four flat stages, the sprinters face the threat of being almost ignored in this race with the kinds of profiles on offer. The peloton will look to take it easy on the flat stages, as a respite from all the climbing elsewhere, and the sprinters might lose out on possible stage wins to the break. If it does come down to bunch sprints, Avelino (porto - Prio) is the fastest man in the field with Ewan and Vesely his biggest challengers. Vesely's excellent acceleration might give him the edge on certain stages. Itami, Demare and Kupfernagel will also be looking at utilizing their explosive accelerations to get ahead of the rest.
Edited by AbhishekLFC on 28-02-2018 15:48
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| tastasol |
Posted on 28-02-2018 15:51
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Classics Specialist
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Loving the name!  Breaks all the way for us, hopefully Watson and Vink can do make it inside the top 50 in the GC as well.
Dempster with realistic chances for a stage podium in the TTs, especially the prologue. Just some points, please!
Gesink to win this.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 28-02-2018 16:00
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World Champion
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We're about to get the entire race ruined by a single rider. 
Herklotz and Demare should've ripped this race to shreds, but I have to applaud eBuddy's idea of sending a monster that could lead the race from stage 1 to 11 while taking five stages along the way. Who cares that it's only PT HC.
There's still some hope.
At least Aker didn't send Guldhammer here, so Herklotz should be the favorite to finish best of the rest, which would mean only slightly failing our win goal here. And who knows what aces the defending champion has up his sleeve with +4mo compared to that stunning winning performance.
At least there's no van der Lijke or Grosu and Avelino as the only top sprinter should hopefully find all flat stages a bit too hard, allowing Demare to go for a couple of stage wins and maaaybe challenge Gesink for green after all.
At least Gesink's acceleration sucks, so if Herklotz and Demare play the hilly stages well and don't let him escape up until the sprint to the line, they still have one tool to beat him.
At least there are only four riders with a better MO stat than Nerz and six with a better MO stat than Bongiorno, so we can use them well to either force a very select group on the mountain stage to make the TT disadvantage of Herklotz irrelevant, or keep them around the Top 10-15 overall for lots of depth points and the team classification.
To summarize our goals: podium overall for Herklotz, multiple stage wins, green jersey for Demare and white for Silvio, good depth.
This is the race we need to score huge numbers in to crack the Top 8. This has to be our race of the season.
In advance: congrats eBuddy and thanks for the reports (and a great preview)!
Edited by cio93 on 28-02-2018 16:07
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-02-2018 16:17
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Directeur Sportif
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PCM$: 300.00
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Hopeless roster for Jayco. Maybe Dyball can somehow Top-25 the GC. We probably need breakaways though. I better not hope for Olman to have a plus day in the prologue.
Ayubuwan likely to score big with Yates.. eBuddy as well. We are slipping further down the rankings here.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 28-02-2018 16:28
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4032
Joined: 24-01-2009
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I guess Yates will find a way to win, right?  |
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| SotD |
Posted on 28-02-2018 16:58
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World Champion
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Having no races myself, I will be following this one with great interest...
It is obviously interesting for me to see how well Moser will do, and if they will find a way to score big, as usual. But the really interesting thing is obviously the GC fight, and whether this will be the race that put eBuddy out of the relegation fight.
Ayubowan! Will need a great race to stay up, I think...
Rooting for Herklotz, as a win here would be a great warmup for l'Avenir.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 28-02-2018 16:58
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
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Hope Nepom can do well...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 28-02-2018 17:31
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Tour de France Champion
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Maybe I should have sent Contador here. I debated it for a while, but eventually decided against. So effectively, we have no one for this race at all. That means I wanna see the guys in breakaways at least every other stage. This is a lot of race days, and we cannot completely waste them!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 28-02-2018 17:37
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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That sweet sweet lvl4 XP <3
Perhaps Caleb can bag a victory here, he's got a decent chance on the flat days. Simon often surprises but i'm not expecting fireworks here. Very much a breakaway team that's here for XP purposes and not points.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-02-2018 17:40
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
Joined: 20-07-2008
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At last our home race!
It should prove decisive given it takes a lot of race days and Ayubowan and ebuddy are here.
I find the preview a bit too pessimistic in regard to my team. Reis was 2nd last year beating the likes of Nepomnyachsniy or Beltran, while being only beaten by an overperforming Herklotz. There are different players this year, but missing out on a top10 would be seriously disappointing.
Avelino should also get at least one stage, while having Antunes and Borges on the team we can feature a powerful block to chase the favourites in the hilly stages.
Anyway if Gesink doesn't win this I'll eat my hat.
Looking forward to the reports. Thanks for the preview Abhishkek!
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 28-02-2018 19:04
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World Champion
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Due to race clashes this is going to be an awful race for us.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 28-02-2018 19:18
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World Champion
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Come on, Bobby! Time for a big one.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 28-02-2018 19:27
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Team Leader
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We have a top 5 goal here.
I have so much faith in your Luis Leon Sanchez, come on!
Awesome preview though and Gesink's inclusion is pretty amazing (make me glad I didn't bring Kwiat), congrats on the win already alexkr!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| ember |
Posted on 28-02-2018 19:29
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
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As it turned out to be a huge mistake sending both Galta and Guldhammer to the Vuelta, this is where that becomes visible, as we don't have Guldhammer here. It was my intention to have him here when I picked this as a goal race, but then it simply got too tempting to double in the Vuelta with both my GC riders and hope for two riders high up in the GC there. In the end, we only got one, and just that, which made it a planning failure.
Having said that, this is a race I still look a lot forward to, and one that always has been a joy to follow, as we've taken part in many editions as well. With no Guldhammer here, it's still very nice to see Beltran that high up amongst the GC riders when you try to compare them now, pre-race. He should at least fight for a top 5 in this field, I think, making use of the hilly stages, hopefully co-operating with Gesink and/or the puncheurs hunting stage wins.
The team is also built for breakaways and maybe the teams classification. Though, for the latter, I suspect Beltran will loose too much to the top climbers on the mountain stage.
When I put up the team with Beltran as the leader, I hoped he shouldn't be strong enough to prevent us from joining the breakaway fun. Though, seeing how we did in the Tour with Guldhammer leading the line and almost no breakaway attempts, I fear we'll not try our luck there. At least I've got my fingers crossed!
Gesink is the obvious favourite for the overall, and as cio says, he could lead the race from start to finish. Though, if he doesn't get yellow in the prologue, it will be interesting to see how the hilly stages will play out, as I imagine that will give a more aggressive Gesink than if he should defend yellow.
Looking a lot forward to the reports!  |
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| fintas |
Posted on 28-02-2018 20:06
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Small Tour Specialist
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We are in this race with a team composed of second lines, so I do not expect much of this race. But still Chiarello has been very well and obtained great results even while working for both Marquez and Nazaret, will he be able to cope with the pressure to lead the team ?? hope so. A place in the top15 should be the best we can expect.
I sent Kupfernagel to this race, but I'm already sorry for this decision none of the flat stages suits his abilities. I would like to see the team present at the breaks and maybe fight for the classification of the mountain.
Gesink has this race almost wins right away and only a disaster will remove him from the highest place of the classification
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| Bikex |
Posted on 28-02-2018 20:18
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I'm surprised we are the last team in the startlist and Boonratanathanakorn is declared our team leader.
Still I have some expectations in this race. Moazemi has one of the higher hill stats here so there is hoping he does well in the hilly stages and maybe doesn't loose much in the mountain stage that wasn't too selective last year iirc. But with the strong Puma team it is possible that the peloton gets ripped up on the final ascent.
If Moazemi fails to do well I still have Jang and Rodrigues, at least one of them has to do kind of well. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 01-03-2018 16:56
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Classics Specialist
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Dempster pretty much where he should be, that's nice. Would have liked a podium, but a good start to the race. Good by up and coming prologue specialist Søren Kragh Andersen as well, and Korsæth also following nicely up. No points for them, but at least good performances.
Gesink already in the lead, guess it's only one way from here and out....
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-03-2018 17:31
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World Champion
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One down.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 01-03-2018 17:33
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World Champion
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zzZzzZZZzzzZzz
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| ember |
Posted on 01-03-2018 18:56
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Team Leader
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Well done, Gesink. Congratulations, alexkr00!
Every TT/prologue where Beltran only looses 13 seconds to the winner must be considered a win, no matter how short it is, so I can only be happy |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
