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Tour of South Africa Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 17-12-2017 07:04
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Directeur Sportif
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The Tour of South Africa goes into it's sixth edition, being part of the MG calendar since 2012, where Jonathan Bellis took the first tour for Rapha Condor - Qhubeka. African riders enjoyed some success in the coming years, with Nolan Hoffman (Metinvest) bossing to a stunning overall victory and two stage-wins in 2013 and Hassen Ben Nasser winning the GC for Team Kenya Airways one year later. The most recent winners were Maxime Monfort (Gazelle/2015) and Diego Ulissi (Generali). Fun fact: in the last four editions, the winner of the points competition came from Africa: Ben Nasser (2x), Dan Craven (2015) and Hoffman (2013).
The character of the race remains the same: four hilly stages will give all GC contenders plenty of chances to fight for yellow, with the long TTT as another important key to the GC battle. A flat, but rather challenging stage rounds up this 6-days-event.
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Favorites | HI | STA | TTT | | Outsiders | HI | STA | TTT |  Van Garderen | 82 | 78 | *** | |  Quevedo | 78 | 72 | * |  Froome | 82 | 77 | ** | |  Palini | 78 | 75 | * |  Di Maggio | 82 | 73 | * | | Serry | 78 | 71 | * |  Ulissi | 80 | 83 | ***** | |  Mehr-Wenige | 78 | 74 | |  Costa | 80 | 73 | * | | Tsatevich | 77 | 74 | *** |  Zaini | 80 | 74 | | |  Zingle | 77 | 74 | |  Reichenbach | 79 | 76 | *** | | Le Gac | 77 | 73 | |  Levarlet | 79 | 70 | * | |  Teklit | 77 | 75 | * | | Caruso | 78 | 76 | | | Venter | 77 | 72 | * | | Paulinho | 78 | 70 | * | | Hategeka | 77 | 74 | * | | Mohoric | 78 | 76 | * | | McEvoy | 76 | 75 | * |
We may begin with the defending race champion: Ulissi surely would love to repeat last year's success and while he's not amongst the three best puncheurs (according to the main stat), he definitely should benefit from a few other factors. The superior TTT setup from Generali (though we may doubt that Ulissi will finish the timetrial with the same time as the best TT horses of the team - just like Roglic experienced in Vancouver most recently), his great stamina for the queen stage on day five and his strong sprint skills surely turn him into one of the big favorites for the GC again.
And then there's Van Garderen and Froome as the next big favorites. Both with the needed skillset to be the best here and both with at least not the worst TTT setups to support them. Van Garderen possibly with a small advantage in the timetrial and of course, this is a key race with EBH not racing here.
Di Maggio, Costa, Zaini, Reichenbach (with one of the strongest TTT teams behind him), Caruso, Mohoric.. the list of possible threats for the big guns is quite long. Eritel also with their well known triple-leadership of Teklit, Venter and Hategeka. Surely an interesting team to follow. Also Van Garderen's premium domestique (or co-leader?) Tsatevich as another exciting rider to watch out for. His allround skillset is quite promising for those courses here.
The Stage Hunters | Sprinters | HI | SP | AC | | Sprinters | HI | SP | AC |  Scully | 67 | 79 | 80 | | Favilli | 75 | 76 | 74 | | Matthews | 64 | 79 | 79 | | Tsatevich | 77 | 75 | 75 | | King | 65 | 78 | 73 | | McEvoy | 76 | 75 | 79 | | Kreder | 75 | 77 | 78 | | Navardauskas | 74 | 75 | 70 | | Kuboki | 73 | 77 | 77 | | Canola | 73 | 75 | 76 | | Mansilla | 71 | 77 | 78 | | Park | 72 | 75 | 76 | | Tleubayev | 66 | 77 | 77 | | Matysiak | 72 | 75 | 72 |
Speaking of Tsatevich, we are now talking about those, who will aim for stage victories. Of course there's the sprinters, who do hope to be a factor in the only flat stage here. The profile of the stage ain't easy though. Punchy sprinters like Kreder, Kuboki, Mansilla, Favilli or the already mentioned Tsatevich may be the more promising bets than those few pure sprinters at the startlist: Scully/Matthews and King as the fastest amongst them. Compal definitely counting on this one stage there.
Tsatevich, McEvoy or Kreder and Favilli may also fancy their chances in the less challenging hilly stages, that may see a bigger front group fighting for line honours.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:07
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Directeur Sportif
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We brought a very deep lineup here. Quevedo and Mohoric should both attend the Top 10, while the Youth jersey is a must win. Mugerli, Bazhkou, Jans and Navardauskas are all capable of scoring minor points. Mansilla, Navardauskas and Jans make up for the without doubt best train for the reduced bunch sprints. A stage, white, and many depth points is the goal. I also hope our plan worked out well that both Mohoric and Quevedo can hold on with the others in the TTT for a nice team performance. But with PCM seing Mansilla as the captain I sadly doubt that...
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:09
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Really fear the TTT, but it is Ulissi's race to lose imo. The route does not fit Froome that great and it was close to Roche being here instead. This is the last race for Froome in a long time, too. Top 3 will be all right to me. Glad TvG is here to take the favorite role
Froome in that Fablok jersey just looks wrong, "He who must not be seen" is back out in the open!
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:20
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Interesting race, 4 hilly stage makes it a big one for the hilly guys but the TTT scares them away. Last year I sent squad with all domestiques and no leader, which won the KOM jersey, but thought I'd leave it alone this year because our squad would be filled with talents anyway this time round - although seeing Leverlet as a favourite, maybe it wouldn't have been such a bad idea. 
If PCM is smart, this is Ullisi's race, awesome rider who's often shorted, every stage suits him well and he has massive stamina but given Roglic was dropped in TTTs - I worry. If he loses out, TVG will be sitting pretty but based on Mol's form I wouldn't be surprised if Di Maggio pulls out a big one.
Lovely preview tsmoha, the banner at the top is the most wonderful inclusion, but it's also a very nice read as well. Thank you. 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:27
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Directeur Sportif
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Wait. It definitely should not be Ulissis race to loose. Would be very surprised if it's not TVG winning ahead of Froome. I go with Paulinho for third, either him or Costa for Berg.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:43
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Croatia14 wrote:
Wait. It definitely should not be Ulissis race to loose. Would be very surprised if it's not TVG winning ahead of Froome. I go with Paulinho for third, either him or Costa for Berg.
It's a 34km TTT, if he doesn't get dropped, he'll get a massive buffer on everybody else - of course, that's only if he doesn't get dropped.
Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he won Stage 5, he does have massive stamina.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 17-12-2017 10:45
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World Champion
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Cheering for TJ, Ulissi and Mohoric in GC and Scully in the sprint stage. Hope mostly for a great race, good luck to everyone who's here!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 17-12-2017 11:48
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Should have been here, really. Since EBH already is doing Ukraine and Pais Vasco, this was never really an alternative for him (Pologne would have been preferred if we should have added another stage race as well),'but could have been a nice race for our TT guys and Watson, especially seeing how he didn't get dropped in the TTT in Pais Vasco.
Oh well. Should be interesting to see how the TTT goes. Tejay should be the man to beat here anyway
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| fintas |
Posted on 17-12-2017 13:02
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We're here to hunt for stages, because I do not think we are capable of getting a great result in the gc. The team is not strong enough in the TTT to can think in general, 78-76-76-71-65-64-58-56 is not ideal and I fear that my fifth element will end up harming the team's result, we still all remember what happened to Uran in Vancouver.
Stages 1 and 6 seem ideal for McEvoy, who has already had the pleasure of winning a stage in this race in 2014...
Once again great presentation tsmoha.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 20:48
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 17-12-2017 13:34
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Fantastic preview tsmoha!
We've brought our best sprinters here. I hope they also could hang on to he hilly stages and get a decent GC placement, but we'll see. A victory on the flat stage would be very welcome! |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 17-12-2017 14:49
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World Champion
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Oh no, MattRage incoming......
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 17-12-2017 15:03
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Sprinter
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Great preview again tsmoha! I'll have no expectations here for the GC since there is a 0% chance that Reichenbach doesn't get dropped from the TTT. Maybe some stage top-10's, maybe a podium in the TTT, we'll see but it looks like an unpredictable race from the GC standpoint.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 17-12-2017 15:50
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Grand Tour Champion
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Looking to go 2 for 2 on season Win goals. So, always nice to bring arguably the race favourite to the start line. If TVG can hang on to his fast ride in the TTT, then we should be in good shape. Will be interesting to see how Tsatevich gets on as well.
And another great preview by tsmoha. Happy to see that you're reporting this race, I very much enjoy your reports.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 17-12-2017 20:55
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World Champion
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Hoping Zaini can do well on the hilly stages here. They are mostly circuits, which should suit him and his downhilling ability.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 17-12-2017 21:54
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Super preview tsmoha.
TTT scared away Flügel so Mehr-Wenige has the team leading duties, a top 15 will be a good result for him.
Also hoping Kreder can continue our incredible stage hunting success on the flatter stages.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 17-12-2017 22:00
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Directeur Sportif
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I hate how strong the field is this year and I therefore don't expect Ulissi to win like last year, it's definitely TVG's race to lose if PCM 17's TTTs have taught us anything at all. Ulissi lost 25" to our team last year and won stage 5 in dominating fashion, but I find it hard to imagine that he'll have easy life this time around.
I think we have the chance to win at least the TTT and power our way to a top 3 in the GC, and that's all I ask for after the disappointment in Cali.
Thanks tsmoha, love what you're doing with your previews, you guys are setting the bar so high this year with these reports and previews.
Oh no, MattRage incoming......
Nah, it's a 34 kms TTT and it's only right that Ulissi will get dropped. The question is how much will he lose. There's a climb and that helped him lose so few time no doubt, but I think the team is a bit stronger in TTs this year and therefore his form that day will play a huge, huge role. As long as it's not more than 45-60 secs lost I think it will be ok. And of course we better win the fucking TTT.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 17-12-2017 22:10
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World Champion
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That awesome banner almost made me feel sad for missing this race. Then I realised I wouldn't be amongst the favorites anyway.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| roturn |
Posted on 18-12-2017 07:07
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matt17br wrote:
Oh no, MattRage incoming......
Nah, it's a 34 kms TTT and it's only right that Ulissi will get dropped. The question is how much will he lose. There's a climb and that helped him lose so few time no doubt, but I think the team is a bit stronger in TTs this year and therefore his form that day will play a huge, huge role. As long as it's not more than 45-60 secs lost I think it will be ok. And of course we better win the fucking TTT.
Seeing Olivier lost on 30km TTT in the Giro 2'20 on the team as 69 TT rider, I fear Ulissi might end awful. 
My team wasn`t even that super strong as yours with mainly 74-78 TT riders.
Wonder if Ulissi is seen more of a leader than Olivier, then you might be lucky. |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 18-12-2017 09:00
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Team Leader
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A solid first stage from the Euskaltel boys. Confused but also happy to see that my team was willing to do some work on the front chasing the breakaway. Very happy with Zingle managing to finish 4th and Caruso also in 11th with Le Gac also being in the front group which should be useful for the Youth Classification.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 18-12-2017 09:24
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Classics Specialist
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20 seconds behind TvG already is really really bad and also that Margaliot was as good as Froome in the final sprint just comes to show that it was a bad day for our leader. At least we're still in contention..
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