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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2016
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-07-2016 00:13
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After covering CT, now for PCT. Not entirely successful last year in that the predicted Prio-Porto triumph did not exactly materialise, but at least some of the other teams were well placed! See the CT thread for some method explanations.
Puncheur
| 1 |  | Arrinera | : | Froome | Roche | Zielinski | | 2 |  | Indosat - ANZ | : | Anuar Aziz | Zaini | Mendes | | 3 |  | Vontobel | : | Di Maggio | Zardini | Wyss | | 4 |  | Wiesenhof - Andritz | : | Flügel | Zingle | Monsalve | | 5 |  | Meiji - JR East | : | Kinoshita | Hatanaka | Mutsumine | | 6 |  | Ayubowan! | : | Gautier | Bellis | Bibby | | 7 |  | Hugo Boss | : | Costa | Bilbao | Kump | | 8 |  | Banc na hÉireann | : | McCarthy | Lavery | Martin | | 9 |  | Team Telkom for Africa | : | Ben Nasser | Ricco | Meintjes | | 10 |  | Generali - AXA | : | Ulissi | Molard | Finetto |
Spoiler 11 VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
12 Coldeportes
13 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
14 Spotify - Haglöfs
15 Euskaltel
16 Porto - Prio
17 Karcher - Adira
18 Strava
19 Team UBS
20 Netia - Norske Skog
21 Flores - Ceitec
22 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
23 Eritel - Sonatrach
24 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
25 Azteca - NBCSN
26 Valio - DeLaval
27 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
28 Compal-Merida
29 Shimano - Siam Cement Team
30 SanCor
Stage Races
| 1 |  | Porto - Prio | : | Machado | Reis | Oliveira | | 2 |  | Team UBS | : | Amador | Schelling | Ivars | | 3 |  | Compal-Merida | : | Dekker | Lowe | Gilanipoor | | 4 |  | Shimano - Siam Cement Team | : | Denifl | Kiserlovski | Alizadeh | | 5 |  | Coldeportes | : | Úran | Ortega | Chamorro | | 6 | | Indosat - ANZ | : | Intxausti | Brenes | Claerebout | | 7 | | Team Telkom for Africa | : | Ricco | Eastman | Ratiy | | 8 |  | Flores - Ceitec | : | Contador | Talansky | Roglič | | 9 | | Meiji - JR East | : | Shikai | Ji | Iino | | 10 |  | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Brajkovic | Rodrigues | Grigrian |
Spoiler 11 Wiesenhof - Andritz
12 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
13 Banc na hÉireann
14 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
15 Spotify - Haglöfs
16 VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
17 Eritel - Sonatrach
18 Ayubowan!
19 Euskaltel
20 Netia - Norske Skog
21 Hugo Boss
22 SanCor
23 Arrinera
24 Valio - DeLaval
25 Karcher - Adira
26 Vontobel
27 Generali - AXA
28 Azteca - NBCSN
29 Strava
30 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Sprinter
| 1 |  | Spotify - Haglöfs | : | Ahlstrand | Reimer | Kruopis | | 2 |  | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Impey | Van Heerden | Afewerki | | 3 |  | Valio - DeLaval | : | Lo Cicero | Vastaranta | Breschel | | 4 | | Hugo Boss | : | Kump | Aberasturi | Tolleson | | 5 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | : | Van Asbroeck | Pelucchi | Peeters | | 6 | | Coldeportes | : | Guerao | Angarita | Forero | | 7 | | Porto - Prio | : | Avelino | Coutinho | Caldeira | | 8 |  | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | : | Vanderbiest | Ulanowski | Polivoda | | 9 |  | Strava | : | Modolo | Van der Sande | Corioni | | 10 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | : | Zabel | Schorn | Archbold |
Spoiler 11 Meiji - JR East
12 Karcher - Adira
13 Netia - Norske Skog
14 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
15 Vontobel
16 Ayubowan!
17 Banc na hÉireann
18 Team Telkom for Africa
19 Compal-Merida
20 Team UBS
21 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
22 Euskaltel
23 Arrinera
24 Flores - Ceitec
25 SanCor
26 Generali - AXA
27 Shimano - Siam Cement Team
28 Indosat - ANZ
29 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
30 Azteca - NBCSN
Time Trial
| 1 |  | Karcher - Adira | : | Fiedler | Balloni | Barth | | 2 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | : | Brändle | Schädlich | Atkins | | 3 |  | Euskaltel | : | Cornu | Bret | Roy | | 4 | | Generali - AXA | : | Van Winden | Viviani | Boaro | | 5 | | Valio - DeLaval | : | Paillot | Pökälä | Samoilev | | 6 |  | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | : | Reus | Durasek | Fothen | | 7 | | Team UBS | : | Dillier | Ivars | Amador | | 8 | | Hugo Boss | : | Gonzalez Salas | Costa | Ligthart | | 9 | | Compal-Merida | : | Bauer | Dekker | Fominykh | | 10 | | Arrinera | : | Bialoblocki | Bodnar | Sagan |
Spoiler 11 Team Telkom for Africa
12 Novatek-Panarmenian.net
13 Porto - Prio
14 Meiji - JR East
15 Coldeportes
16 Ayubowan!
17 Spotify - Haglöfs
18 VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
19 Vontobel
20 Eritel - Sonatrach
21 Shimano - Siam Cement Team
22 Flores - Ceitec
23 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
24 Indosat - ANZ
25 Banc na hÉireann
26 SanCor
27 Netia - Norske Skog
28 Strava
29 Azteca - NBCSN
30 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Northern Classics
| 1 |  | Azteca - NBCSN | : | Summerhill | Coronel | Samayoa | | 2 | | Strava | : | Baugnies | Langeveld | Gaudin | | 3 | | Generali - AXA | : | Teunissen | Theuns | Taillefour | | 4 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | : | Vanbilsen | Van Asbroeck | Joseph | | 5 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Sibilla | Cancellara | Vermote | | 6 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | : | Zepuntke | Taubel | Zingle | | 7 | | Shimano - Siam Cement Team | : | Franzoi | Nepomnyachsniy | Oba | | 8 | | Arrinera | : | Maes | Lebris | Lavoine | | 9 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | : | Debesay | Lagab | Bikienga | | 10 | | Porto - Prio | : | Ferreira | Allonca | Avelino |
Spoiler 11 Valio - DeLaval
12 Team UBS
13 Vontobel
14 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
15 Hugo Boss
16 Banc na hÉireann
17 Compal-Merida
18 Ayubowan!
19 Meiji - JR East
20 SanCor
21 Spotify - Haglöfs
22 Netia - Norske Skog
23 Team Telkom for Africa
24 Euskaltel
25 Flores - Ceitec
26 Karcher - Adira
27 Indosat - ANZ
28 VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
29 Coldeportes
30 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
Climber
| 1 | | Porto - Prio | : | Reis | Machado | Vinhas | | 2 | | Shimano - Siam Cement Team | : | Kiserlovski | Denifl | Alizadeh | | 3 | | Indosat - ANZ | : | Brenes | Intxausti | Signorini | | 4 | | Team Telkom for Africa | : | Eastman | Ratiy | Ricco | | 5 |  | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | : | Rujano | Moschella | Duarte | | 6 | | Flores - Ceitec | : | Talansky | Contador | Roglič | | 7 | | Meiji - JR East | : | Ji | Shikai | Iino | | 8 | | Team UBS | : | Saggiorato | Amador | Schelling | | 9 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | : | Preidler | Monsalve | Mai | | 10 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Rodrigues | Brajkovic | Grigrian |
Spoiler 11 Ayubowan!
12 VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff
13 Eritel - Sonatrach
14 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
15 Coldeportes
16 Hugo Boss
17 Banc na hÉireann
18 Vontobel
19 Spotify - Haglöfs
20 Compal-Merida
21 Karcher - Adira
22 Euskaltel
23 Netia - Norske Skog
24 Azteca - NBCSN
25 Valio - DeLaval
26 SanCor
27 Arrinera
28 Generali - AXA
29 Strava
30 Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
So Porto-Prio are seen as the top climbing team in the division, while Arrinera, Spotify, Karcher and Azteca share the other top spots. Wiesenhof stand out though with 5 Top 10s, and the other position being 11th. Porto have 4 Top 10s while a number of teams have 3.
There's a fair few teams who have a high rank in one category but are pretty low elsewhere. Top spotters Spotify, Karcher and Azteca are three examples, while Euskaltel and In-n-out are two others. There's no Top 10 for Netia or Sancor, infact barely a Top 20 for the Argentinians.
Ayubowan are quite interesting as despite having only one Top 10, all others are within the Top 18, which is only bettered by Wiesenhof and Porto. UBS and Meiji are the two other teams to always feature in the Top 20.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-07-2016 00:14
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So what predictions does this lead to?
Standings - v1
First is the sum of the ranks from each category, taking away the worst rank in Sprinter, TT, Northern Classics or Climber.
Azteca 29th here, just as they were last year. Not where they finished, of course!
| 1 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | | 2 | | Porto - Prio | | 3 | | Meiji - JR East | | 4 | | Team UBS | | 5 | | Team Telkom for Africa | | 6 | | Coldeportes | | 7 | | Hugo Boss | | 8 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 9 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | | 10 | | Indosat - ANZ | | 11 | | Shimano - Siam Cement Team | | 12 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 13 | | Arrinera | | 14 | | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | | 15 | | Spotify - Haglöfs | | 16 | | Ayubowan! | | 17 | | Valio - DeLaval | | 18 | | Generali - AXA | | 19 | | Banc na hÉireann | | 20 | | Vontobel | | 21 | | Compal-Merida | | 22 | | Karcher - Adira | | 23 | | Euskaltel | | 24 | | Flores - Ceitec | | 25 | | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | | 26 | | Strava | | 27 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 28 |  | Netia - Norske Skog | | 29 | | Azteca - NBCSN | | 30 |  | SanCor |
Standings - v2
This version is from a formula which takes into account the actual strength of teams in each category, not just the arbitrary rank position. The influence of Climber is reduced here, as it was last year, compared to CT.
It's very close in a number of places, with teams easily close to being a few positions higher or lower in the calculations. Although the gap from 1st to 4th is equivalent to the gap from 4th to 16th, with my formulas seemingly quite confident about the Top 2!
| 1 | | Wiesenhof - Andritz | | 2 | | Porto - Prio | | 3 | | Meiji - JR East | | 4 | | Team UBS | | 5 | | Coldeportes | | 6 | | Team Telkom for Africa | | 7 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 8 | | Spotify - Haglöfs | | 9 | | Hugo Boss | | 10 | | Karcher - Adira | | 11 | | Eritel - Sonatrach | | 12 | | Arrinera | | 13 | | Ayubowan! | | 14 | | Banc na hÉireann | | 15 | | VisitUkraine p/b Nemiroff | | 16 | | Generali - AXA | | 17 | | Euskaltel | | 18 | | Vontobel | | 19 | | Strava | | 20 | | Indosat - ANZ | | 21 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | | 22 | | Shimano - Siam Cement Team | | 23 | | Compal-Merida | | 24 | | Valio - DeLaval | | 25 | | Flores - Ceitec | | 26 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 27 | | Azteca - NBCSN | | 28 | | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | | 29 | | Netia - Norske Skog | | 30 | | SanCor |
The identity of the top 8 teams is almost the same in both standings, but there's some considerable jumps elsewhere. In-n-out, Indosat, Shimano and Valio much better off in v1, while Spotify, Karcher and Strava jump up in v2.
Which is best? On average, v2 was out by 4.5 positions last season and v1 out by 5.4. Take away Risa who were underrated by more than 10 positions in both, plus Prio and Once who were overrated by at least 10 positions in both, and the averages were 3.5 off for v2 and 4.7 off for v1.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 02:27
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 14-07-2016 00:17
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Tour de France Champion
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oooh 
Well, all we can do is kick back and finish top 10 and surprise the entire ManGame world 
Also: lol that my top 20 is in northern classics. Owe it all to one talented guy
Edited by Ian Butler on 14-07-2016 00:22
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| viking90 |
Posted on 14-07-2016 04:55
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We hope we will be something like this years Risa then   |
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 14-07-2016 05:44
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Sprinter
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Awesome, that's what I was waiting for!
Last years Slightly Mathematical Preview was the most accurate regarding my team, giving me hope we can confirm this years prediction, too. Every outcome guaranteeing another year in PCT is welcome. 
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 14-07-2016 07:01
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Pretty confident that my team will do relatively well this season and Bouhanni is up there with the best sprinters in out division, despite us being lower in that terrain stats wise.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 14-07-2016 07:12
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20th in puncheurs was surprising but understandable given LLS only has 78 hill and depth (and to a lesser extent back-up stats) isn't focused on too much in your forumlas which is fair enough (although also getting 20th in stage races means that Panayotov + Domagalski is equal to my puncheurs squad ), but 13th best sprinter team? Vantomme is one of the top 5 sprinters in the division, with a decent train in Sobota, Pierzga and Franczak.
So despite being predicted 28th and 29th, I'd be very disappointed if our team managed to finish that low, would mean a lot of non-sprints from Vantomme and a very large lack of performances from all our puncheurs. I guess the formulas don't like our team.
It was a nice preview for the rest of the teams though so thanks SN.
Edited by trekbmc on 14-07-2016 07:30
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-07-2016 08:09
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trekbmc wrote:
20th in puncheurs was surprising but understandable given LLS only has 78 hill and depth (and to a lesser extent back-up stats) isn't focused on too much in your forumlas which is fair enough (although also getting 20th in stage races means that Panayotov + Domagalski is equal to my puncheurs squad ), but 13th best sprinter team? Vantomme is one of the top 5 sprinters in the division, with a decent train in Sobota, Pierzga and Franczak.
So despite being predicted 28th and 29th, I'd be very disappointed if our team managed to finish that low, would mean a lot of non-sprints from Vantomme and a very large lack of performances from all our puncheurs. I guess the formulas don't like our team.
It was a nice preview for the rest of the teams though so thanks SN.
On the contrary, depth and backup stats certainly are considered quite a bit. The puncheur rating of a rider is much more than just the hill stat, for example.
It's not all about the leaders, and when in many cases the leaders are quite similar between teams, the support riders really come into play. And clearly this is where your team suffers in the sprints.
Quite possible that LLS' #1 spot was stage race rather than puncheur, so can see later if altering that would change anything.
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| jph27 |
Posted on 14-07-2016 08:10
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Fantastic preview SN!
Seeing as I put a large amount of stock in numbers when doing transfers and race planning - including my own version of the OVL formula - I feel a little concerned that my worst prediction came from the numbers 
I can however understand why. What my team ought to be good at is racking up points through consistency, and through riders like Bellis, Bibby and Gallopin who aren't amazing at any one thing, but have nice stat combos. I think that shows with us being Top 18 in all areas, but Top 10 in only one, and hopefully it allows us to overperform somewhat. |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 14-07-2016 08:31
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SportingNonsense wrote:
trekbmc wrote:
20th in puncheurs was surprising but understandable given LLS only has 78 hill and depth (and to a lesser extent back-up stats) isn't focused on too much in your forumlas which is fair enough (although also getting 20th in stage races means that Panayotov + Domagalski is equal to my puncheurs squad ), but 13th best sprinter team? Vantomme is one of the top 5 sprinters in the division, with a decent train in Sobota, Pierzga and Franczak.
So despite being predicted 28th and 29th, I'd be very disappointed if our team managed to finish that low, would mean a lot of non-sprints from Vantomme and a very large lack of performances from all our puncheurs. I guess the formulas don't like our team.
It was a nice preview for the rest of the teams though so thanks SN.
On the contrary, depth and backup stats certainly are considered quite a bit. The puncheur rating of a rider is much more than just the hill stat, for example.
It's not all about the leaders, and when in many cases the leaders are quite similar between teams, the support riders really come into play. And clearly this is where your team suffers in the sprints.
Quite possible that LLS' #1 spot was stage race rather than puncheur, so can see later if altering that would change anything.
Yeah I can understand that our sprinters have very low hill stats and not particularly high flat so perhaps our back-ups lose us quite a few spots even though I don't think it'll have a major impact on our performance.
Didn't consider that LLS could've been treated as a stage racer but that makes sense, and means that Palini with his unspectacular back-ups would be our best puncheur.
Thanks for clearing that up SN.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 14-07-2016 08:34
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@Ian - Eh, I am the only one who trusts in you an in your team 
___
You're the second that puts Strava relegating... I am not the only one!
Also it's interesting how Novatek got such good spots, never given before as the best was 12th. In the other side, Karcher got a 22nd which is the worst by far (second worst is 14th by sgdanny).
Pretty nice statistics, thanks for them!
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| Miguel98 |
Posted on 14-07-2016 08:37
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And way down we gooooooo |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-07-2016 09:24
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World Champion
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3 last places, pretty much expected
Was hoping us to be better in the hills, but we'll see I guess. The final prediction is one place of what we need, so I hope for a slight improvement
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 14-07-2016 10:23
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Classics Specialist
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Not unexpected results, it is hard to account for the amount of points Summerhill is likely to get. Unlike the other profiles where top riders will share wins and top 5s, Danny is capable of consistently getting 1sts without significant support. I think there is more overall competition this year for him with several teams carrying a true cobbles rider, but none are as threatening as Vanspeybroeck was last season.
Bottom line, I still need Danny to keep us up, basically all on his own.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 14-07-2016 10:45
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World Champion
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Kentaurus wrote:
Not unexpected results, it is hard to account for the amount of points Summerhill is likely to get. Unlike the other profiles where top riders will share wins and top 5s, Danny is capable of consistently getting 1sts without significant support. I think there is more overall competition this year for him with several teams carrying a true cobbles rider, but none are as threatening as Vanspeybroeck was last season.
Bottom line, I still need Danny to keep us up, basically all on his own.
Instructions for my riders:
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 14-07-2016 10:54
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Classics Specialist
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Were really glad to be number 1 in the Puncher category, I made a gamble on deciding to stay away from Mountains this year and I hope it can secure us an Top 10. So far I've not been predicted lower than 14th, so I take that as a good sign
Thanks for the preview, can't wait for the Season to begin
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 14-07-2016 12:18
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2282
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7th and 9th, very good placings!
Hopefully these maths will prove to be more correct to my team than last year.
Getting 3rd in the sprint rankings and 7th in the hill rankings is something I couldnt have expected. But I guess it's fair if you look at the riders and the opposition we're up against.
Will be extremly interesting to see if Kump can deliver as his stats suggest!
Was hoping you would do this again for PCT SN, thanks for finding the time!
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| The Rider |
Posted on 14-07-2016 12:38
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
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Ah, well I don't suppose you can fault the maths! But, SN, crucially, somehow, you forgot this formula:
'If R = yes then T = FR - 5P'
Spoiler
If you have Roy in your team then you will be 5 places worse off. 
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 14-07-2016 16:33
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Please let this prediction be correct. Top 15 would be amazing for our team, and I'd like a quiet season...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 14-07-2016 16:48
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Again v2 seems slightly more accurate just like the ct one if you ask me. I like this one a bit more than ct as well in terms to how close it is to what I imagine.
Good prediction for us I'd say considering 16th or thereabouts is where I think we'll end up. It's fine as long as we are not too far off mid table, but certainly I won't disdain a top 10 or higher!
Thanks!
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