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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview
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Posted on 22-11-2024 00:49
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 03-06-2015 23:15
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Time to apply the formulas to CT, although I worry that the formulas may be a little drunk, possibly powered by Carlsberg...
Only one team makes no Top 10 appearance in the list below, but they do have a pair of 11th places, so it does suggest all teams will have their areas of success this season!
Puncheur
| 1 |  Severstal-Mercator | : | Mendes | Bole | Golas | | 2 |  Netia - Norske Skog | : | Zeits | Der | Stachowiak | | 3 |  DeLaval - Kiitokori | : | Vastaranta | Cioban | Sarabia | | 4 |  OTP Bank - Slovnaft | : | Simon | Fankhauser | Mahdar | | 5 |  Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Rabon | Pozdnyakov | Hudecek | | 6 |  Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | : | Molard | Passalacqua | Finetto | | 7 |  Fablok - Dunlop | : | Lejman | Zielinski | Matysiak | | 8 |  Alpina - Avianca | : | Acevedo | Weber | Godoy | | 9 |  Strava | : | Favilli | Canola | Einsle | | 10 |  Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | : | Kinney | Selander | Duggan |
Mendes is the most notable returning CT name, and perhaps the 2nd most notable is Bole. A top combination for Severstal. Meanwhile Netia were quite fortunate to sign Zeits - from a rival CT team no-less. Though it has to be said that Vastaranta was one of the bargains of transfers, and will serve DeLaval very well.
Spoiler | 11 | Compal-Merida | | 12 | In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered By Carrefour | | 13 | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 14 | Indosat - ANZ | | 15 | Sodexo ProCycling | | 16 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 17 | Gatorade - SIS | | 18 | Actavis - DKSH | | 19 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | | 20 | Verkefnid Iceland | | 21 | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 22 | Sancor Cycling Team | | 23 | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | | 24 | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 25 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 26 | Team Type 1 |
Stage Races
| 1 | DeLaval - Kiitokori | : | Anacona | Samoilev | Colex | | 2 |  In-n-Out Cycling Team | : | Novak | Rosskopf | Gaimon | | 3 |  Compal-Merida | : | Lowe | Gilanipoor | Dyachenko | | 4 | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | : | Rolland | Malacarne | Girardi | | 5 | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | : | Martinez | Haga | Montenegro | | 6 | Netia - Norske Skog | : | Domagalski | Der | Marczynski | | 7 |  Indosat - ANZ | : | Signorini | Nieve | Atapuma | | 8 |  Gatorade - SIS | : | Brandt | Biziyaremye | Squire | | 9 | Alpina - Avianca | : | Weber | Soler | Godoy | | 10 |  Team Type 1 | : | Peterson | Barton | Lewis |
A lot of attention rightfully goes to Anacona for DeLaval but Samoilev could also prove an important signing as while many pure climbers hit CT this year, the amount of true all rounders is fewer. Late signing Novak will be crucial for In-n-out, while Rolland and Martinez also stand out - Compal meanwhile just have plenty of options.
Spoiler | 11 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 12 | Actavis - DKSH | | 13 | Severstal-Mercator | | 14 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | | 15 | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | | 16 | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 17 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 18 | Verkefnid Iceland | | 19 | Sancor Cycling Team | | 20 | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 21 | Fablok - Dunlop | | 22 | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 23 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 24 | Sodexo ProCycling | | 25 | Strava | | 26 | OTP Bank - Slovnaft |
Sprinter
| 1 |  Sancor Cycling Team | : | Richeze | Andriato | Haedo | | 2 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | : | Serebriakov | Hochmann | Pozdnyakov | | 3 | Fablok - Dunlop | : | Lavoine | Drujon | Janiaczyk | | 4 | Compal-Merida | : | Matthews | Sutton | Park | | 5 |  BelarusBank Pro Cycling | : | Thorsen | Hutarovich | Kankovsky | | 6 |  Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | : | Pelucchi | Peeters | Dabkowski | | 7 | Strava | : | Corioni | Favilli | Dupont | | 8 | Alpina - Avianca | : | Forero | Arango | RodrÃguez Parra | | 9 | Indosat - ANZ | : | Kruopis | Nateghi | Zhang | | 10 |  Verkefnid Iceland | : | Vanderaerden | Lima | Jørgensen |
The B World Champion comes to CT and Richeze heads up a strong looking SanCor squad. Novatek rank 2nd despite their sprinters hardly impressing in CT last year, while some astutely signed Frenchmen could do wonders for Fablok. Compal are 4th despite the loss of Nelson, just ahead of fairly relegationees Belarusbank - the notorious hill haters.
Spoiler | 11 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 12 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 13 | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | | 14 | Netia - Norske Skog | | 15 | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | | 16 | Gatorade - SIS | | 17 | DeLaval - Kiitokori | | 18 | In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered By Carrefour | | 19 | Team Type 1 | | 20 | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | | 21 | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 22 | Sodexo ProCycling | | 23 | Actavis - DKSH | | 24 | Severstal-Mercator | | 25 | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 26 | Elta - Hellenic Post |
Time Trials
| 1 | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | : | Boaro | Rolland | Finetto | | 2 | Strava | : | Tennant | Pfingsten | Canola | | 3 | In-n-Out Cycling Team | : | Novak | Rosskopf | Offredo | | 4 | DeLaval - Kiitokori | : | Pökälä | Samoilev | Renäng | | 5 | Compal-Merida | : | Bauer | Wang | Walker | | 6 | Gatorade - SIS | : | AramendÃa | Brandt | Roth | | 7 |  Actavis - DKSH | : | Kuboki | Brüngger | Morabito | | 8 | Fablok - Dunlop | : | Durasek | Sagan | Pszczolarski | | 9 | Severstal-Mercator | : | Ignatiev | Kasa | Mendes | | 10 |  Carlsberg - Danske Bank | : | Bøchman | De Maar | Koep |
Double act Boaro and Rolland is enough to outrank Tennant at the top of the standings. Pökälä, Bauer and AramendÃa could make important contributions to their team too. On TT stat alone it is surprising to not see AkzoNobel in the Top 10, but their strongest chrono riders aren't great on hills, which could cost them GC opportunities.
Spoiler | 11 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 12 | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 13 | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | | 14 | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | | 15 | Sancor Cycling Team | | 16 | Netia - Norske Skog | | 17 | Team Type 1 | | 18 | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | | 19 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 20 | Indosat - ANZ | | 21 | Sodexo ProCycling | | 22 | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 23 | Verkefnid Iceland | | 24 | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 25 | Alpina - Avianca | | 26 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team |
Northern Classics
| 1 | Strava | : | Langeveld | De Backer | Van Wyk | | 2 |  AkzoNobel - Statoil | : | Lindeman | Eeckhout | Vandaele | | 3 | Verkefnid Iceland | : | Bakari | Brynjolfsson | Omarsson | | 4 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | : | Østergaard | De Maar | Lilholt | | 5 |  Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | : | De Vocht | Steegmans | Delgerbayar | | 6 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | : | Joseph | De Winde | De Greef | | 7 |  Sodexo ProCycling | : | Turgot | Blot | Pineau | | 8 | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | : | Taillefour | Jeandesbosz | Fonzi | | 9 | In-n-Out Cycling Team | : | Aulas | Paiani | Offredo | | 10 | Netia - Norske Skog | : | Gil | Mørkøv | Stachowiak |
Strava come out on top here with Langeveld expected to be the strongest in the division, despite not having the highest cobbled stat. AkzoNovel have an interesting set up with the sprinting Lindeman alongside former U23 World Champion Eeckhout. Bakari fires Verkefnid to 3rd, but can he actually deliver. De Vocht and Taillefour may be hindered by hills while returning CT teams Lierse and Carlsberg have found themselves somewhat swamped - caught out by the ambition of newer teams.
Spoiler | 11 | Team Type 1 | | 12 | Compal-Merida | | 13 | Indosat - ANZ | | 14 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 15 | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 16 | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | | 17 | DeLaval - Kiitokori | | 18 | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | | 19 | Gatorade - SIS | | 20 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 21 | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | | 22 | Actavis - DKSH | | 23 | Fablok - Dunlop | | 24 | Sancor Cycling Team | | 25 | Severstal-Mercator | | 26 | Alpina - Avianca |
Climber
| 1 | Indosat - ANZ | : | Atapuma | Signorini | Nieve | | 2 | DeLaval - Kiitokori | : | Anacona | Sørensen | Samoilev | | 3 | Compal-Merida | : | Gilanipoor | Lowe | Dyachenko | | 4 | Alpina - Avianca | : | Soler | Orozco | Zurita | | 5 |  Elta - Hellenic Post | : | Kulhavy | Rienda Segura | Simantirakis | | 6 | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | : | Ochoa Quintero | Masuda | Tsikhanau | | 7 | Actavis - DKSH | : | Schwab | Nakane | Morabito | | 8 | Chiquita - Universal | : | Martinez | Montenegro | Salas | | 9 | Fablok - Dunlop | : | Berard | Feillu | Owsian | | 10 | In-n-Out Cycling Team | : | Novak | Hardy | Gaimon |
There's no doubting the strength of Indosat's pure climbing unit of Atapuma and Signorini, even if DeLaval's Anacona is the better rider. Two riders with a strong MG past, Kulhavy and Ochoa Quintero, give their teams their only Top 10 appearance on this list - beyond the more consistent presences of Compal and Alpina.
Spoiler | 11 | Verkefnid Iceland | | 12 | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 13 | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 14 | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | | 15 | Gatorade - SIS | | 16 | Severstal-Mercator | | 17 | Sancor Cycling Team | | 18 | Netia - Norske Skog | | 19 | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 20 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 21 | Sodexo ProCycling | | 22 | Team Type 1 | | 23 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | | 24 | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 25 | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | | 26 | Strava |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 03-06-2015 23:15
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And now the predictions. First is the sum of the ranks, taking away the worst rank in Sprinter, TT, Northern Classics or Climber.
| 1 | | Compal-Merida | 26 | | 2 | | DeLaval - Kiitokori | 27 | | 3 | | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | 33 | | 4 | | In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered By Carrefour | 36 | | 5 | | Indosat - ANZ | 44 | | 6 | | Strava | 44 | | 7 | | Fablok - Dunlop | 48 | | 8 | | Netia - Norske Skog | 48 | | 9 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 53 | | 10 | | Alpina - Avianca | 54 | | 11 | | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | 55 | | 12 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | 55 | | 13 | | Verkefnid Iceland | 62 | | 14 | | Gatorade - SIS | 62 | | 15 | | Severstal-Mercator | 63 | | 16 | | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | 65 | | 17 | | Actavis - DKSH | 66 | | 18 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | 68 | | 19 | | AkzoNobel - Statoil | 70 | | 20 | | Sancor Cycling Team | 74 | | 21 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | 75 | | 22 | | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | 77 | | 23 |  | Fred Whitton Race Team | 83 | | 24 | | Team Type 1 | 83 | | 25 | | Sodexo ProCycling | 88 | | 26 | | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | 96 |
And secondly an adjusted version based more on the strength of teams in each specialisation, rather than just their ranking order. The Climber spec was barely included in this calculation for PCT, but I have opted to include it for CT.
| 1 | | DeLaval - Kiitokori | | 2 | | Compal-Merida | | 3 | | Generali - Kronenbourg 1664 | | 4 | | Indosat - ANZ | | 5 | | In-n-Out Cycling Team Powered By Carrefour | | 6 | | Strava | | 7 | | Fablok - Dunlop | | 8 | | Netia - Norske Skog | | 9 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | | 10 | | Verkefnid Iceland | | 11 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 12 | | Chiquita - Universal p/b Minions | | 13 | | Alpina - Avianca | | 14 | | Gatorade - SIS | | 15 | | Severstal-Mercator | | 16 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | | 17 | | Actavis - DKSH | | 18 | | BelarusBank Pro Cycling | | 19 | | Sancor Cycling Team | | 20 | | AkzoNobel - Statoil | | 21 | | Sodexo ProCycling | | 22 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 23 | | Fred Whitton Race Team | | 24 | | OTP Bank - Slovnaft | | 25 | | Fox Sports - Golomt Cycling | | 26 | | Team Type 1 |
There are some very interesting differences here, between this formula prediction and some of the subjective predictions already posted. Teams such as OTP seem quite lower than they will actually go - with the advantage of depth - while Carlsberg and Vekefnid are flying much higher than usual, and it does see In-n-out as a much stronger candidate for promotion too.
Edited by SportingNonsense on 03-06-2015 23:16
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-06-2015 23:18
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You know, there is something about these predictions I like much more than other predictions.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 03-06-2015 23:40
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Nice read, I like these placings best so far 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Silvio Herklotz |
Posted on 04-06-2015 03:36
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While other previews saw us constantly in Top10 and even in fifth place, I'm quite disappointed with that 14th prediction. However, I believe Mendes and Bole will gain more points than could be displayed by winning the hill rating. My hope is just the huge amount of hilly stages.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 04-06-2015 05:37
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Very interesting. Compal definitely the team to beat this season.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 04-06-2015 05:43
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7th in both tables is quite satisfying and I hope to accomplish that 
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 04-06-2015 06:14
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5th in these ranking bodes well for our season, its also a stark contrast between the other rankings so far |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-06-2015 06:24
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12th? Oh my, Minions fainting everywhere 
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| CountArach |
Posted on 04-06-2015 06:40
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I feel that 16/18th is a bit generous for BelarusBank given their one dimensional focus and the fact that their sprinters can only compete in the flatest possible terrain. There are going to be a fair few pointless races from that team I fear.
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| JoeArmstrong13 |
Posted on 04-06-2015 06:55
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Seems I'm the team to never get a top 10. Oh well
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| matt17br |
Posted on 04-06-2015 07:33
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Woah, 3rd place in both
Well if SN says so, I'll take it
Very nice ranking, much different from the others I'd say, feels a bit strange to see somwsome teams much higher than expected and some much lower even though my formulas were actually giving a sort of advantage to In n out and Carlsberg and some sort of disadvntage to Severstal
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| Kagemusha |
Posted on 04-06-2015 07:54
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I think 17th is the lowest that Actavis have been predicted so far and having set my goal to be in the top 15, I'll be hoping that proves to be a quirk of the formulae used.
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 04-06-2015 08:23
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Ouch, let's hope we do better than this preview predicts
A nice prediction, though, great analysis. At least we'll do good in the sprints, or at least that's the plan! |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 04-06-2015 08:54
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Those are some interesting predictions, I'm kind of more supportive of LLS' or The Rider's ones with 3rds in them.  I don't think this system suits my team very much as we are more of a - take a few points in sprints stage races and cobbles, but really go for hills, which imo works in CT.
Still an interesting analysis and preview of each stat.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Shonak |
Posted on 04-06-2015 22:23
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Fantastic preview, very slick and easy to read. Seemingly objective by the method, and I like it that we were ranked first in cobbled classics. Lately I have worried a bit about Bakari's presence and I hope Strava will show musles in these races instead of taking on a (AI) bystander-role.
Quality SN!
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 04-06-2015 22:37
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As others have said this is a really nicely laid out preview that is so easy to follow and provides logical steps towards the prediction conclusion at the end; I really like it.
Seems to place us lower than other previews, although tbh I would be content with a top 10 as predicted in the first prediction list. I guess it doesn't really favour us because we don't give a monkey's about either TTing or cobbles, whereas only one is taken away. Nevertheless we're in the top 10 for puncheur, stage races, sprinter and climber which points hopefully towards a solid finish.
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 07-06-2015 20:05
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Completely forgot posting here 
Anyway thanks for these very interesting numbers. Had expected this to be the preview that took a bit of air out of the hype-balloon, but I guess not
Surprised that so many teams are ranked worse than us on cobbles though 
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