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Stromeon's CT Analysis
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06-10-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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I thought I'd do something a little different to a normal preview where one gives one's view and opinion about all the teams, and instead use some maths to try and work out who will do well, and who won't. In the next few days I'll also try and produce an Index which gives an indication of how strong the teams look, not just in terms of current squad, but taking into account focus on talents, potential to grow, financial situation, age of squad etc.
The index for current squad is split into two parts: Leaders, and Squad Depth.
First up is the strength of teams' leaders. For this, the best two riders in the five main disciplines (Mo, Hi, Sp, Cob, TT) are taken into account and the disciplines weighted accordingly. This category also takes into account the fact that in the CT you do not neccesarily have to be competitive in all areas to succeed, and so teams with strong leaders in two or three areas will do well here. This produces the following table:
Leaders
| 1 | ONCE-Eroski Cycling Team | 391.20 | | 2 | Fletcher-Garneau | 388.70 | | 3 | Risa - Ergon | 388.20 | | 4 | Azteca-NBCSN | 387.26 | | 5 | Bonsucro | 387.20 | | 6 | Bank of Ireland - Irish Cycling | 387.14 | | 7 | Team ASDA-Savers | 386.24 | | 8 | Alpina - Avianca | 385.82 | | 9 | Team TomTom | 385.62 | | 10 | Sauber Petronas | 384.36 | | 11 | Team Vontobel | 384.16 | | 12 | Team Live Nation | 384.06 | | 13 | Grupo Nutresa | 383.98 | | = | In-n-Out Racing p/b Auchan | 383.98 | | 15 | Ameriabank-Novatek | 383.78 | | 16 | Maloja Mountain Nomads | 382.66 | | 17 | Team Chiquita-Universal | 382.24 | | 18 | Team Nordeus | 382.14 | | 19 | Dell - 361° Racing | 381.96 | | 20 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | 380.20 | | 21 | Team Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 380.10 | | 22 | Wounded Warrior | 379.28 | | 23 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | 379.08 | | 24 | Evonik - Signal Iduna | 376.80 | | 25 | Euskaltel - Bavaria | 376.52 | | 26 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | 376.32 |
Secondly, we have the Squad Depth. Here we take into account the best five riders from all five disciplines, so there's no hiding if you haven't got good support for your star rider or you completely ignored the sprints; and gives a good indication of the suitability for all terrains. We also look at the average average, so to speak, to see if a team has some lower-end riders that won't really contribute. This gives a lower value than the leaders, as, ultimately having good leaders is what will get you a large amount of your potential points!
Squad Depth
| 1 | Risa - Ergon | 211.22 | | 2 | Grupo Nutresa | 209.37 | | 3 | Team TomTom | 208.32 | | 4 | Bonsucro | 207.70 | | 5 | Maloja Mountain Nomads | 207.33 | | 6 | Azteca-NBCSN | 206.73 | | = | In-n-Out Racing p/b Auchan | 206.73 | | 8 | Team Vontobel | 206.59 | | 9 | Team Chiquita-Universal | 206.51 | | 10 | Dell - 361° Racing | 205.22 | | 11 | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | 204.65 | | 12 | Fletcher-Garneau | 204.21 | | 13 | Bank of Ireland - Irish Cycling | 204.09 | | 14 | Ameriabank-Novatek | 203.85 | | 15 | Team Nordeus | 203.67 | | 16 | Team Live Nation | 203.48 | | 17 | Team Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 203.37 | | 18 | Euskaltel - Bavaria | 202.99 | | 19 | ONCE-Eroski Cycling Team | 202.84 | | 20 | Team ASDA-Savers | 202.46 | | 21 | Sauber Petronas | 201.67 | | 22 | Wounded Warrior | 199.99 | | 23 | Alpina - Avianca | 198.65 | | 24 | Evonik - Signal Iduna | 197.31 | | 25 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | 194.87 | | 26 | Siam Cement - Lenovo | 192.73 |
It is noticeable that some teams who were near the top in the first table fall down dramatically in the second (Fletcher-Garneau and ONCE-Eroski for instance) whereas other teams like Eddie Stobart rise up quite significantly.
So to get a final ranking, and thus my prediction for the CT standings, we simply add these two values together:
Overall
| 1 |  | Risa - Ergon | 599.42 | | 2 |  | Bonsucro | 594.40 | | 3 |  | ONCE-Eroski Cycling Team | 594.04 | | 4 |  | Azteca-NBCSN | 593.99 | | 5 |  | Team TomTom | 593.94 | | 6 |  | Grupo Nutresa | 593.35 | | 7 |  | Fletcher-Garneau | 592.91 | | 8 |  | Bank of Ireland - Irish Cycling | 591.23 | | 9 | | Team Vontobel | 590.75 | | 10 |  | In-n-Out Racing p/b Auchan | 590.71 | | 11 |  | Maloja Mountain Nomads | 589.99 | | 12 |  | Team Chiquita-Universal | 588.75 | | 13 |  | Team ASDA-Savers | 588.70 | | 14 | | Ameriabank-Novatek | 587.63 | | 15 |  | Team Live Nation | 587.54 | | 16 |  | Dell - 361° Racing | 587.18 | | 17 |  | Sauber Petronas | 586.03 | | 18 |  | Team Nordeus | 585.81 | | 19 |  | Alpina - Avianca | 584.47 | | 20 |  | Eddie Stobart Pro Cycling | 583.73 | | 21 |  | Team Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 583.47 | | 22 |  | Euskaltel - Bavaria | 579.51 | | 23 | | Wounded Warrior | 579.27 | | 24 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Cycling Team | 575.07 | | 25 |  | Evonik - Signal Iduna | 574.11 | | 26 |  | Siam Cement - Lenovo | 569.05 |
There's a clear winner, with Risa-Ergon perhaps the only team to combine good leaders with a solid squad depth really well. Then after that there's a big cluster of teams very close together - in reality it could probably be any team between 2 and 8 who finishes second; depending of course on the all-important planning and all-important luck.
I understand that this may not perhaps be a particularly fair reflection on some teams in some cases - I feel Evonik and Siam Cement seem a little hard done by by the maths, but that's the way it is.
If you've got any suggestions for improvement, things that also need to be considered; if you'd like to know exactly how it works so you can make some suggestions as how to make the formulae better, or if you're just plain outraged about where this puts your team, feel free to comment below 
Edited by Stromeon on 04-04-2014 19:10
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06-10-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Reserved (1/1)
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:11
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15274
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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TomTom looking great. Wow, Risa 'won' this with quite a margin.
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| Smowz |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:13
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Team Leader
Posts: 6479
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Very interesting cold statistical analysis - not sure how these numbers came about but certainly is not that far from what I would predict in some cases.
I wonder whether using a simple rank in each discipline would work well, rather than a coefficient?
Certainly Risa Ergon are strong I think this year. The unpredictability though will be with race planning of course and also I am really not sure how sprinting will go in the CT.
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:14
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15274
Joined: 21-07-2012
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The CT sprints will be really interesting indeed. Good leadouts could be key.
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 12:56
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:32
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Very interesting analysis. It is interesting to see what maths does here although you don't implemented the backupstats for the riders and therefore riders who only have one good stat are weighted much stronger than those who are dual threats. (e.g. Awang will have a stronger influence in this ranking than Geschke or Bole. But i don't think he will have any chance to get more points than one of those two.)
So i hope to prove your ranking wrong 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Firefly21 |
Posted on 04-04-2014 18:38
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Domestique
Posts: 506
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I think this sort of statistical analysis is always interesting if not always illuminating. It does confirm for me who some of the stronger teams are, because I already though that Risa and Bonsucro might be at the top of the division.
For me the CT is so hard to predict because the CT managers tend to make lots of mistakes in their planning. I mean I finished 5th last year but made some pretty bad mistakes - Rohregger going to Portugal didn't pay off, and going to some C1 hilly races was basically disastrous. It's to be expected that people make mistakes in their first season - its just to try to not make more mistakes than your fellow managers .
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-04-2014 19:05
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Go on then, underestimate us
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 04-04-2014 19:56
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Team Leader
Posts: 5533
Joined: 12-06-2013
PCM$: 500.00
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I kinda like how I have a low prediction. Gives me room to prove you all wrong.
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 04-04-2014 20:35
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Sprinter
Posts: 1507
Joined: 23-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Would be satisfied to finish in the Top 10.
Thanks for taking a closer look to all CT teams. Helps a lot... was tough to predict by just skimming the squads.
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 04-04-2014 20:42
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3999
Joined: 26-07-2011
PCM$: 200.00
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Really like the look, surprised my team ranks so well. Even with the good rankings I'm not really that happy, don't think my team can realistically achieve the goals I set at the beginning of the year. (Three of the goals were high placing in GC, and I don't have a particularly strong GC rider).
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| 547984 |
Posted on 04-04-2014 21:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5008
Joined: 29-01-2013
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Interesting read Stromeon. On paper, it looks about right, with a few surprises, most notably Nordeus and Maloja so low, though I can't exactly recall what their depth was like.
As far as my team is concerned, I'm surprised we ranked so high on "Depth" instead of "Leaders". I didn't consider my team to be deep, but looking at your system I think it comes down to the fact that I have a decent rider for each discipline I guess.
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| Stromeon |
Posted on 04-04-2014 22:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06-10-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Jesleyh - I must say I've been pleasantly surprised to see how well you managed to do in the transfers considering that you came late to the party; that's some good work you've done to get together a team that is at the upper end of the standings 
Smowz - The numbers are rather arbitrary - they don't really mean anything other than to show the relative gaps between the teams. That is definitely an option, I wanted to avoid penalising teams who, say, didn't bother getting a cobbled squad together as they won't have to face the cobbles/have one cobbled race day due to C2HC bands.
Indeed sprinting will be very unpredictable - I will be very interested to see if some managers are prepared to take the risk of sending their main sprinter to a mountainous/hilly stage race with 1 or 2 sprint stages to try and get the win in those stages gambling on a lack of competition and using up valuable racedays in the process.
knockout - Not considering back-up stats is a weakness but I felt trying to implement it would take too much time
Nevertheless you have an impressively talented team and I think you'd probably fare well in our overall Index taking into account factors other than squad strength (if and when I get round to doing that).
Firefly - I intended it to be a slight alternative to the usual preview and wanted to see how well it matched up with the expert eye of Smowz for example, and it's looking pretty good so far The difference between teams separated by small margins of points will most likely be made in planning, I agree it's definitely a key area and potential banana skin for many.
Ollfardh, LLS - I agree that not being near the top takes the focus and pressure off you as a manager and I rather like that
Margh Norway - Even with going through the teams I still feel like anything could happen, there are just so many different, yet strangely similar in terms of ability, teams out there
Kentaurus - Yeah doing well in rankings doesn't necessarily correlate to doing well in goals. I found it quite amusing looking back at the goals I set myself, even though they are relatively easy, and laughing at how miserably I am going to fail all of them.
Numbers - They were two of the teams I also thought would do slightly better than they did but maybe it's a problem with the formula. Nordeus for example are not really rewarded for the fact they have Bole who can get over a hill, and instead are looked at as having a decent but not great sprint squad when in fact they should be able to really challenge on those selective sprint stages.
Your point is very accurate, I think the fact you have strength in pretty much all areas is what contributes to a high depth score
Wow I wrote a lot there... Guess I'm just kinda excited...
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 04-04-2014 22:41
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2950
Joined: 01-03-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Very happy with were im rated throught this |
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 04-04-2014 22:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
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Really liking these tables a lot, it gives a nice insight in to the rival teams and who you have to look out for |
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| Bikex |
Posted on 04-04-2014 22:50
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Team Leader
Posts: 7257
Joined: 25-08-2012
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Yay last! We will prove your index wrong!
But after loosing Lowe I don't expect myself way better..
Edited by Bikex on 04-04-2014 22:50
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| tastasol |
Posted on 04-04-2014 22:50
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
Joined: 11-09-2010
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Don't like this I would be surprised if I end up at the top of the rankings to be honest. Too many riders..
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| The Rider |
Posted on 04-04-2014 23:11
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4543
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Really great stuff Stromeon. Got any more in the pipeline? (Your first post indicates you do, so looking forward to that)
-- Going against your formula, I just don't see Risa - Ergon making the top 3 at the end of the continental rankings. Having said that I reckon they are just one solid climber short of being the team to beat in the division.
- By the sounds of it Nordeus must have had some difficulties in the planning. As I expected Yasmani Martinez/ Grega Bole to be right up there consistently in the continental races. I definitely would have expected Nordeus to be top 10 at least. Shows what I know! There you go! |
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| Jesleyh |
Posted on 05-04-2014 06:18
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15274
Joined: 21-07-2012
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks a lot Stromeon
Surprised myself as well.
Feyenoord(football) and Kelderman fanboy
PCMdaily Awards: 12x nomination, 9x runner-up, 0x win.
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