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Scandinavia Open Road Race Discussion
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 25-02-2023 20:40
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 810
Joined: 05-10-2021
PCM$: 600.00
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This preview is brought to you by SotD
SCANDINAVIA OPEN ROAD RACE
Welcome to the 13th edition of the race going from Femundsmarka to Lofsdalen in this 3 stage long race in Sweden and Norway. The race have a status as a Pro Tour Classic, but in the past the race have been through lower tier ranks aswell.
We start the race Femundsmarka for a 6km prologue with a slight altitude which could see the stronger climbers/puncheurs added to the pool of pre-stage favorites. It's also the puncheurs we can expect to see excel on the next couple of stages to Grua and Lofsdalen. Stage 2 starts in the former Winter Olympic city of Lillestrøm. From there towars Grua it's a bumpy ride of 180km, ending on an incline finish which should suit the strongest puncheurs. Not much new can be said about stage 3 from Sörvattnet to Lofsdalen except the stage is 15km longer.
With this in mind it feels natural to take a look at the pre-race favorites.
| Name | MO | HI | SPR | ACC | PRL |  Lopez | 79 | 84 | 66 | 78 | 72 |  Herklotz | 84 | 81 | 68 | 76 | 78 |  Phinney | 85 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 83 |  De Bie | 71 | 84 | 72 | 75 | 68 |  Sagan | 74 | 83 | 73 | 76 | 68 |  Lutsenko | 73 | 83 | 72 | 81 | 68 |  Kwiatkowski | 78 | 81 | 67 | 75 | 75 |  Mohoric | 71 | 83 | 67 | 77 | 64 |  Gidich | 76 | 82 | 62 | 75 | 73 |  Kelderman | 71 | 82 | 67 | 72 | 70 |  Bobridge | 68 | 82 | 68 | 79 | 76 |  Skujins | 70 | 83 | 68 | 76 | 59 |
Winner of the past two editions Lopez is here to make a hattrick, but it won't be easy. Several riders are out to get him, and two riders in particular jumps to mind, having not participated in the past two editions. Pro Tour individual beasts Herklotz and Phinney are here and while there are other names that on paper could fit in between they do have a track record of winning races that make the jump immidiately to the top. Both are extremely comfortable on a TT bike with Phinney likely being the best ever, and Herklotz as a prologue specialist close to the very top of the game. They will use the opening prologue to get ahead of the other puncheurs. The same can be said about Kwiatkowski, Gidich and Bobridge who will all want to chip away on every possible seconds, in order to win from simply staying in the favorites group. All of those are also at the top of the puncheurs game, although Bobridge might struggle in the altitude. The only rider who can match Lopez in the steepest sections is De Bie, and as he's also slightly faster, Lopez will have to do his best to keep him at bay.
He will however have to pay close attention to Sagan and Lutsenko who are also faster on the line than Lopez - And as the game could be won by seconds, the fastest obviously have a great advantage if things stay together. Mohoric and Kelderman on the other hand will be keen to help Lopez get the race as selective as possible and ride the race from out front.
| Name | MO | HI | SPR | ACC | PRL |  Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 65 | 73 | 67 |  Vakoc | 71 | 81 | 71 | 74 | 69 |  Koretzky | 71 | 81 | 71 | 79 | 61 |  Izagirre | 73 | 80 | 59 | 63 | 76 | | Ponzi | 69 | 80 | 72 | 74 | 64 | | Müller | 65 | 80 | 66 | 73 | 63 | | Di Maggio | 63 | 80 | 63 | 72 | 60 |  De Plus | 76 | 79 | 61 | 72 | 65 | | Kanerva | 64 | 79 | 64 | 76 | 70 |  Gerts | 66 | 78 | 72 | 70 | 72 |
In a race like this, however the list of potential winners and outsiders is LONG. Very very long. The above mentioned riders are not favorites for the win, but in the right situation they could be strong enough to pose a threat for the win. Buchmann, Vakoc and Koretzky are trailing the very best by a relatively small margin, so with a good day they could grab a stagewin and come very close to a top result. Koretzky has the disadvantage of being among the weakest prologue riders in the race, and this will likely keep him active in the aspiration to get the most from the race. Buchmann and Vakoc are slightly better, and could tuck in between the better riders, and make a late jump to take valuable seconds. Izagirre has the advantage of a very solid prologue capacity, and it is likely that he will be riding on the defense - maybe similar to Gerts who is lacking a bit in the punchy part, but have a fair bit of pace aswell as a decent prologue. Every other rider in between have their own agenda, but needs a good day to fight for a top result.
| Name | MO | HI | SPR | ACC | PRL | | Phinney | 85 | 77 | 72 | 75 | 83 | | Ganna | 69 | 73 | 69 | 73 | 82 | | Herklotz | 84 | 81 | 68 | 76 | 78 | | Tenorio | 83 | 75 | 58 | 66 | 78 |  Wirtgen | 78 | 75 | 63 | 72 | 80 | | Viennet | 54 | 67 | 55 | 64 | 80 |  Fraile | 76 | 72 | 60 | 66 | 79 | | Oliveira | 70 | 72 | 70 | 72 | 79 |  Würtz | 67 | 71 | 66 | 70 | 79 | | Prado | 77 | 73 | 64 | 70 | 78 | | Oomen | 81 | 75 | 65 | 69 | 77 | | Andersen | 62 | 65 | 76 | 74 | 83 | | Zmorka | 61 | 66 | 62 | 70 | 82 | | Vlatos | 52 | 66 | 67 | 66 | 81 | | Yatsevich | 55 | 68 | 60 | 63 | 80 |
The fight for the opening prologue seems very much at the hands of Phinney. Not only is he the best prologue rider, he also have the best qualities climbing hills. Ganna could likely be his main rival, as the others have their difficulties handling the terrain. On a pancake flat prologue he would be looking out for the likes of Andersen, Zmorka, Vlatos and Yatsevich. But it's not, so all of them will have to find a way to handle the altitude of the prologue to fight for glory. Herklotz, Wirtgen, Tenorio, Prado and Oomen doesn't have the same problems with altitude, but struggle against Phinney in the timetrial expertise.
Other outsiders to the stage could be Viennet, Fraile, Oliveira and Würtz who all have a decent skillset for the stage, and on the right day could prove dangerous. Having said that, there is a long list of riders who are very well balanced for the opening stage, but I cannot see any of them winning unless weather drastically changes throughout the day.
| Name | MO | HI | SPR | ACC | PRL | | Valter | 75 | 78 | 69 | 76 | 66 | | Sosa | 78 | 78 | 59 | 74 | 65 | | Higuita | 78 | 77 | 66 | 75 | 62 |  Narvaez | 72 | 77 | 73 | 74 | 67 | | Giannoutsos | 78 | 72 | 64 | 68 | 77 | | Kron | 69 | 77 | 65 | 71 | 65 | | Kiriakidis | 74 | 73 | 63 | 71 | 76 | | Stork | 75 | 71 | 61 | 70 | 76 | | Girdlestone | 77 | 72 | 61 | 68 | 74 | | McNulty | 78 | 72 | 64 | 67 | 73 | | Foss | 78 | 72 | 60 | 69 | 72 |
Lastly we'll be taking a look at the youngsters of the race. Valter, Sosa and Higuita are the strongest puncheurs and should be in the mix for the win. Narvaez and Kron are not far behind, but all of them have a relative poor prologue as a shared trademark. And as neither are a realistic bet for winning against the top puncheurs, you could argue that one of the better prologue riders could sneak away with the gold. Looking at the top candidates we instead find Giannoutsos, Kiriakidis and Stork who all have a solid top 30-40 prologue quality, but lack the hilly quality to pose any sort of threat for the likes of Valter, Higuita and Sosa.
In the middleground we also find the likes of , McNulty and who are strong climbers, but not matching the punch of the top candidates, not the prologue qualities of the second group of riders. Much is up to daily form to get off to a good start from these riders, and then they might be able to use their Grand Tour like physique to get the upperhand.
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-02-2023 20:45
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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I guess Oomen had a few race days left. A good prologue and we might hang on though.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 26-02-2023 16:17
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3264
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How often is there a race with Lopez, Phinney and Herklotz all on the start list? Pity PHL isn't to make it the top 4 riders by OVL in the same race.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 26-02-2023 17:18
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
PCM$: 425.00
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Don't think a good GC is on the table for us, but I hope either Zmorka or Kelderman overperforms a bit in a stage to get a good stage result. Thanks for the preview, SotD, and thanks for taking on another race, Imladrik 
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| knockout |
Posted on 26-02-2023 18:11
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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Back-to-back winner but i dont think Lopez is the top favourite here. Lopez is here to lead us and we could use a strong performance by him. Blums once again his key domestique here.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 26-02-2023 18:28
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
Joined: 20-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Sick lineup. Curious how this one turns out!
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 26-02-2023 18:50
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World Champion
Posts: 13915
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Guess the mountain stat really played a big role here, given Gerts' result. Two stages left to salvage something out of this race. Hopefully more suited to his hill climbing abilities.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 26-02-2023 18:59
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Good prologue, let's try to defend that.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| ember |
Posted on 26-02-2023 19:43
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 700.00
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Sensational startlist!
Had to take a punt on the prologue here with Kragh, eventhough the hilly profile didn't suit him. No surprise to see him nowhere near. A minute down for Mohoric though, was quite a lot. Hopefully it gives him freedom to go for stage wins now, eventhough he has struggled in stage races previously this season, not making me very optimistic.
Huge win margin for Phinney, congratulations, Croatia! |
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| knockout |
Posted on 26-02-2023 20:02
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Expected Phinney win is expected, congrats cro!
Great prolog for Evonik since Lopez beating Herklotz no matter how narrow the gap could be huge for the GC race. Feel like he is in a pretty decent situation now with most puncheurs behind him.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 26-02-2023 23:55
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World Champion
Posts: 10845
Joined: 29-10-2007
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Well I was really looking forward to this race. Not sure I should have.
God awful prologue, let's make sure this ain't 6 wasted race days.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 18:25
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 27-02-2023 02:52
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
Joined: 31-12-2007
PCM$: 450.00
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Let's hope Skujins gets some freedom after losing a lot of time during the prologue.
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| SotD |
Posted on 27-02-2023 07:55
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World Champion
Posts: 12188
Joined: 29-11-2006
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Brilliant start from Ioannidis. His first good result of the season. Too bad he couldn't find that single second that could have made him 2nd. Pointswise there's a huge difference unfortunately.
Kiriakidis also with a solid performance. He too loses quite some from 1 second, as it means he's behind Leknessund and Misbah in the U25.
Spanopoulos with a good performance aswell, so our depth riders are all up where they need to be.
Giannoutsos unfortunately far down. I would have loved to see him fight for a better startposition. Vlatos was a gamble, and the HI effect was way too high. Koretzky so far down that he can hopefully join breakaways with Lafay in the stages or help Ioannidis to a solid result.
For Ioannidis a lot depends on this race as to whether or not I should continue training him.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-02-2023 08:09
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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PCM$: 2100.00
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Prime performance by Phinney, now we need to somehow match those beasts on the hills. Go Taylor!
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 27-02-2023 09:07
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3367
Joined: 20-04-2020
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Zmorka didn't understand the assignment, so all hope goes to Kelderman now
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| ryant |
Posted on 27-02-2023 16:46
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 15-08-2012
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Fraile coming in good with the stage podium, obviously no beating Phinney but being the best of the rest is really encouraging. Still, we are going to rely on these stages not being so selective which is probably a pipe dream but I hope the likes of Fraile and Kennaugh can at least hang on to the main favourites group as there's a good overall result on offer here.
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 27-02-2023 21:02
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Team Leader
Posts: 6036
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Not promising from Bobridge. Hopefully he can do better in the road stages
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 27-02-2023 22:23
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9099
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Never great to loose yellow, but loosing it to our former beasts Alexey and Domen feels less painful.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 27-02-2023 22:36
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 9100.00
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I just love what my guys are doing here. Hoping they can hold on tomorrow.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| knockout |
Posted on 27-02-2023 22:54
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7735
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 400.00
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What were Evonik and Puma doing there in the final? Both seemed to be in that group with four guys and nobody bothered to follow riders like Lutsenko or Buchmann? Very questionable decision making there, potentially throwing away a race podium that way...
I dont want to mention that we've got pretty decent depth positioning going on right now since at least one of them should have sacrificed himself for Lopez.
Hoping for fireworks on the final stage now!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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