The stage reports will be brought to you by Ulrich Ulriksen!
The last Tour de France tuneup is here, and the stars of the PT are here to prove they are in GT shape. Welcome to the 2021 Criterium du Dauphine Libere!
The parcours are similar to most years, testing complete stage racers with a mix of time trialing and climbing. New this year, however, is the stage 2 team time trial, which will offer the first GC shakeup of the race. It should be a very interesting change, not least because it's not completely flat, pitching upwards during the last third of the 24 km route.
Four time winner Taylor Phinney is the clear favorite here, as he's both the best climber and the best time trialist present. In the latter category, it's not particularly close either. His team has enough depth to control the race early when they have the leader's jersey, and while he might lack a top lieutenant, it's not like he's needed one before.
Tenorio just played second fiddle in the Vuelta, and he will be hoping not to do so again here. He's weaker on paper than Phinney, but he maintains the archetype of a top, pure stage racer, and is more than capable of a win here when on form. His TTT team, like Isostar, is unremarkable but not terrible.
If the previous rider is used to being runner up recently, his fellow Spaniard, Madrazo just had some experience being third. He's about as good of a climber as the previous two, maybe even better, thanks to his enormous engine. He does lack a bit more in time trialing, but he's still good in his own right. His TTT squad is good, and he'll be aided by Geoghegan Hart and Powless, two young stage racers who could place well here on their own merits.
Also on that climbing tier is Lachlan Morton, though he's a weaker time trialist. 2nd here in 2019, Mortion can outclimb his opponents on a good day, but can he do so with enough time to make up TT loses? We shall see. At the very least, he has a better support squad in the mountains than Kudus, a very similar rider. The Eritrean is a very powerful young climber who has increasingly excelled the last few years and is the highest paid rider in this race. But while his TTT squad is pretty good, he might spend a lot of time on his own during the three mountain top finishes. Will that come back to bite him?
One team that went fully in one direction despite the varied parcours is Tinkoff. Kristkiy is a step behind the top tier of leaders in the mountains, but he should look to gain some time in the TTT, where his team should carry him very quickly to the line. He's quite an asset against the clock too, which will carry over the the ITT. Of course, that meant sacrifices in mountain support.
On the opposite side is the best rider in the world, Rasmus Guldhammer. That may be a very slight exaggeration, but it's impossible to deny that Guldhammer has outpunched his weight since donning Carlsberg green for the first time, including a 5th place finish in the Giro a couple of months ago. His TT is a bit lacking, but he'll gain 5 minutes in the mountains to compensate. A benefit of being a PCT wildcard team is that Carlsberg were able to bring their full arsenal of climbers here to back him up, including Warbasse, Aranburu, and Eg. Oh, and the TTT? What TTT?
Rafael Reis is an enigma, but his 7th in the Vuelta had some positive notes, and this race suits his skillset as much as any. No short steep hills or areas prime for sudden accelerations to screw him up. His TTT setup is good too. It's just a question of whether he lives up to his potential, or inexplicably finds himself being splits with 80 riders still in the peloton.
Farfetch will be hoping that Adam Yates can surge to the front on his own, as his team have decided to bring mostly talents and classics specialists here to support him. He could lose big time in both the TTT and ITT, but he's a very strong climber with a good kick. Even if he falls out of the GC, he's a major threat to attack and win in the mountains.
Two pure climbers next. Pinot has been known to surprise and overperform when things get tough, whether it's in PT, PCT, or CT. Denifl on the other hand has a hard time with sustained efforts at his age, but he still can hang with the best if the pace is right.
It will be interesting to see how Wirtgen does in his first year at full strength. He's one of the best time trialists around and has a phenomenal team around him, but he still tends to give a little too much time back in the mountains. At 25, he's the clear white jersey favorite, and if the mountain are less selective than expected, he suddenly becomes a podium contender.
The ranking here is extremely rudimentary - it's simply an average TT stat of all team members rounded to the nearest whole number. This is a simplistic analysis in itself, but it's especially so here because it does not account for climbing ability that will be necessary in the final few km's.
Nevertheless, it still tells you something about the contenders broadly. Most teams with GC contenders have attempted to at least have a somewhat competent TT squad here, but there are exceptions. Yates is likely to lose time here at Farfetch are weak. Similar for the wildcard teams of Guldhammer and Denifl.
On the other end, Kritskiy will be well supported as his team is one to beat here. Wirtgen likewise is Vesuvio's best time trialist, but he's leading a very strong team overall. Others like Generali and Puma are hoping to take a stage victory without worrying too much about the GC.
Time Trialists
TT
Res
Phinney
83
74
Tenorio
80
76
Wirtgen
80
75
Paillot
80
74
Sütterlin
80
77
Sergent
79
72
Hepburn
79
77
Zakarin
79
70
Vorobev
79
71
Tanfield
79
75
Dal Col
79
72
Goldstein
79
72
Schädlich
79
69
Kritskiy
78
73
Dennis
78
75
Powless
78
74
Oliveira
78
75
The TTT has brought a ton of pure time trialists here as domestiques, so the field is packed. Unlike the TTT, it's completely flat, so nothing to work on except power and aero. Lots of guys could do well, and lots of similar guys could finish 40th. All about daily form.
But sparing the pleasantries, Phinney is the out and out favorite to win this one. Then Tenorio and Wirtgen. Paillot and Sütterlin are the time trial specialists with the best chances to steal this one for themselves, though again, lots of slightly lesser guys are around to surprise.
Sprinters
Spr
Acc
Mtn
Hill
Res
Grosu
83
80
64
73
70
Bewley
81
80
67
69
73
Kragh Andersen
81
77
53
64
74
Petit
80
78
52
65
72
Moser
80
79
53
67
69
Lander
79
77
55
69
72
Bertilsson
79
77
54
69
71
Harrison
78
81
62
67
70
Young
78
77
58
69
70
Van der Kooij
78
77
62
69
74
Hofstetter
77
78
62
70
71
Fairly weak sprint field here all things considered. There are three stage with flat finishes, although only the first is entirely flat. The last one is after a lot of mountains and is quite bumpy, so it could be a breakaway stage.
Grosu is far and away the best sprinter here. Best top speed and a great kick, plus above average strength to get over the hills. Van der Kooij is a more than sufficient leadout man who will hopefully not leave his leader too early.
He's lost a bit of top speed, but Bewley is a top threat here too. He's never won a stage here throughout his storied career, so he'll be trying to remedy that before it's too late. Grosser will be support, but he's still a touch behind speed wise in his youth.
Asbjorn Kragh Andersen has been an absolute stud lately, even against PT competition, and he has a chance to show that again here without any pressure thanks to the wildcard rules. Unlike usual though, he has a leadout in Lander. It remains to be seen whether that will be a blessing or a curse for the Dane.
Petit and Moser could win a stage if they get into the right position. Bertilsson too. Coming off some strong performances, he has another weak startlist to play with here. And Sam Harrison is a major threat too, thanks to his agility and ability to accelerate very quickly at the finish.
Perhaps the worst lineup we will have all season. Luckily we've been able to score good in Suisse, so the double won't be all hopeless. Just hoping for some breaks and a little bit of luck here.
I will never hesitate to buy wildcards again after the Giro, so I'm very happy that we get another chance to show off here. We get to bring all our best riders, no strings attached, and just have fun against the very best in the world. It's awesome and well worth not adding +1 to AKA's mtn or whatever.
Not sure what Guldhammer can muster GC wise here. We didn't bring a TTT squad at all since it would interfere with loading up our second tier leaders for the mountains. Overall, it's probably too many TT km's in general for Guldhammer to place well, which is fine. But it would be great if he could podium on one of the mountain stages or something given that he has more support here than usual.
Happy that I gave AKA a leadout here rather than in some of the races where we actually want to score. Regardless of debates over the PCM 20 sprint meta, AKA has shown he really excels as a second tier wheel surfer this year. Now he is a first tier guy with a leadout. On paper Lander is a really good fit for him since he similarly is a high flat, high res, low acceleration guy. We'll see if/how that plays out here.
We also have 3 loannees here from 3 different teams. Kamna in particular doesn't have a GC guy to support, so it would be cool to see him go in the break. In any case, it will be exciting.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Well that is some tough competition. All we can hope for here is for Koretzky to somehow ride like Aidan does in Switzerland. We bring absolutely nothing to the plate here except for him. The remaining team is at best a mediocre CT level setup, and among the worst lineups of the entire season.
On paper Jang and Giannoutsos are decent breakaway riders and both Giannoutsos and Rochas can fight for minor U25 points, and Ioannidis might be somewhere inside the top 50 due to his versatility in the TT and climbs, but Kiriakidis, Miltiadis and Agrotis are here for the development basically.
Will be interesting to see a race where we have absolutely nothing to lose.
Phinney for the win obviously, but it should be a nice battle behind him.
A bit of a weird race from my planning side as i've got a little bit of everything here. Chiarello as a solid but not great leader who hopefully can compete for a top ten once again. A fairly solid (by my standards) ttt team with basically all the support climbers in my squad that can tt too as well as a fairly solid sprinter in Hofstetter. So this is a total surprise package for me. No clue what to expect, hoping for the best though...
Love that somehow I decided to get our near-best squad out for the TTT here despite no leader for any stages nevermind the GC, and that squad still barely being top half in that field. Hope for just anything at all from this race, some breakaways are a must
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Obviously not a stage for us, but really nice to see Koretzky atleast still paying attention and somewhat sprinting at the front. 16th is way better than anticipated on a stage like this - not that it really matters though.
Will be interesting to see if he can make anything from being the best puncheur in the race. Only stage 3 and 7 seems somewhat interesting though.
Not having had a lot of good results lately but at least the KoM hunters are active. Mainly the flat riders though without a chance to win it once reaching the mountains. But small points are also good points.
Wow hadn’t even seen Pidcock was here so chuffed to see him grabbing a PT top 10 Him and Jams (love him doing this again after whatever that last race was he did it in) both outperforming their stats to grab those placings is really cool and makes me want to give them both a SP boost…
Spoiler
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
