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Tirreno-Adriatico Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-09-2018 06:59
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 Tirreno-Adriatico
7 stages – 968.7 km
Welcome to the 12 edition of Tirreno-Adriatico, the race have been on the MG calender constantly singe 2007.
About the route: Compared to last year where the route was a mix of hilly stages and mountain stages, this time we got a strictly hilly profile where the pure climbers will find it hard to compete. Another change is that the stages will generally be shorter making it unimportant if the riders got high stamina, the last major change is that last years 16 km team time trial have been replaced with a short prologue.
The local spectators will see a lot of strong Italian riders to cheer for  Ponzi,  Ginanni,  Felline,  Zardini, Zordan, or even more locally  Rabottini born in Pescara, Abruzzo region, on the Adriatic coast
Previous winners
Last year’s winner Aleksandr Pluchkin will not attend this time, but 2016 winner  Yuri Trofimov and 2014 winner Simone Ponzi will be here. Yuri Trofimov already a two time winner can become the first rider to win the race three times.
Favorites:
Three riders in my opinion stand out as most likely winner of the race.
Last year’s top scoring rider in PTC  Edvald Boasson Hagen could not agree with Grieg-Eftel and was released on a free transfer. Boasson Hagen was picked up by Air France – KLM, now facing PT level competition, but being the strongest pure puncher in the world clearly also amongst the top the favourite to win this race.
Hagen has a few minor weaknesses, relative low mountain skills but likely the most important thing is that he got a very weak team to back him. A thing that could be in his favor is a relative fine prologue that could help him take the lead after the first punchy stages.
Last year’s top scoring puncher in PT Simone Ponzi as mentioned knows this race, winning it in 2014 riding with the now collapsed “Good Energy”, Ponzi came to Hugo Boss in 2017.
Simone Ponzi got some very strong features, very fast sprint and acceleration and one of the very best teams to back him in the race, his only weakness is a low end resistance.
Talking about Grieg – Eftel they did not sit on their hands, replacing Hagen they soon acquired  Jan Bakelants on a free transfer after the collapse of Strava, being the 2nd best scoring puncher in PT last season.
Jan Bakelants has a few strong advantages having the best resistance and being the best pure climber of the three, his major disadvantage is his acceleration being slightly weaker than the other in this trio.
Beneath this Top3 favourites, we got a list of strong punchers that I would like to mention briefly.
 Bobridge, a little weaker as a pure puncher as everyone from here and down, but otherwise he got the package, a very strong prologue makes him a favorite to take an early lead one of the first days. His climbing is a bit weak.
De Bie, got a great team backup and resistance.
 Claeys better puncher than those mentioned later, but a weak team support/climbing and must expect to lose some time in the prologue
 Van Garderen, a little weaker as a pure puncher than those mentioned above, but otherwise very strong.
 Sagan just a fraction weaker than Van Garderen but also a fine puncher.
Ginanni, his acceleration somewhat below average, but with a perfect team and top end resistance, don’t count him out of a top GC.
Kelderman, bacically the same as Ginanni, slightly weaker but with a better Prologue
The next group may not be strong enough pure punchers to win or even podium, but  Mohoric, Trofimov and  Vogt got very good teams to help them and they will be very dangerous on their best days.
 Beltran and  Boswell more mediocre team support, but both fine punchers with great acceleration, so should not count them out of a fine GC result, maybe even a top 5 if everything goes their way.
Complete list of favorites:
| . | Mo | Hi | Rs | Ac | Pr | | Hagen | 70 | 85 | 74 | 79 | 72 | | Ponzi | 73 | 84 | 72 | 80 | 68 | | Bakelants | 75 | 84 | 78 | 78 | 66 | | Bobridge | 69 | 83 | 74 | 80 | 77 | | De Bie | 71 | 83 | 76 | 75 | 68 | | Claeys | 67 | 83 | 68 | 73 | 64 | | Van Garderen | 72 | 82 | 75 | 79 | 69 | | Sagan | 74 | 82 | 74 | 76 | 68 | | Ginanni | 69 | 82 | 77 | 73 | 63 | | Kelderman | 71 | 82 | 75 | 72 | 70 | | Mohoric | 71 | 81 | 72 | 77 | 64 | | Beltran | 79 | 81 | 72 | 76 | 66 | | Trofimov | 76 | 81 | 75 | 73 | 75 | | Boswell | 71 | 80 | 73 | 76 | 69 | | Vogt | 62 | 80 | 71 | 63 | 66 | | Kwiatkowski | 78 | 79 | 76 | 75 | 75 |  Van Stayen | 64 | 79 | 71 | 78 | 60 |  van der Hugenhaben | 76 | 79 | 74 | 64 | 70 |  Jensen | 70 | 78 | 73 | 76 | 70 | | Paulinho | 75 | 78 | 72 | 75 | 64 | | Landa | 69 | 78 | 69 | 69 | 57 | | Felline | 66 | 77 | 73 | 78 | 64 | | Smirnovs | 68 | 77 | 69 | 78 | 56 | | Kangert | 75 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 76 | | Zordan | 73 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 55 | | Pernsteiner | 75 | 77 | 71 | 72 | 64 |  Zakarin | 73 | 77 | 73 | 73 | 68 | | Tratnik | 73 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 62 | | Preidler | 79 | 77 | 77 | 69 | 58 | | Mudarra | 68 | 77 | 70 | 68 | 65 | | Afonso | 66 | 77 | 73 | 70 | 58 | | Zardini | 76 | 77 | 66 | 68 | 72 |  Gebrezgabihier | 69 | 77 | 73 | 67 | 64 | | Bratashcuk | 71 | 77 | 70 | 67 | 58 | | Kratochvila | 76 | 77 | 68 | 64 | 70 |
Even though there are only two flat stages we got some fine sprinters ready to fight for those, this is a list of the best:
| Rider | Fla | Res | Spr | Acc | | Van Stayen | 76 | 71 | 84 | 78 | | Ciolek | 75 | 69 | 83 | 79 | | Avelino | 71 | 66 | 83 | 78 | | Vantomme | 73 | 65 | 82 | 78 | | Tzortzakis | 73 | 64 | 81 | 77 | | Kupfernagel | 74 | 66 | 80 | 80 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 66 | 79 | 84 | | Scully | 74 | 70 | 79 | 80 |  Afewerki | 73 | 70 | 79 | 80 |  Lander | 77 | 72 | 79 | 77 | | Docker | 72 | 71 | 79 | 77 | | Samolenkov | 72 | 70 | 78 | 77 | | Reimer | 75 | 70 | 77 | 80 | | Kemboi | 76 | 75 | 77 | 78 | | Mansilla | 72 | 68 | 77 | 78 |
Also a list of the prologue specialists:
| Rider | Res | Pro | | Dennis | 75 | 81 | | Vlatos | 71 | 81 | | Kittel | 70 | 81 | | Kemboi | 75 | 79 |  Cataford | 75 | 79 | | Dempster | 74 | 79 | | Hansen | 73 | 79 | | Malori | 73 | 79 | | Gretsch | 72 | 79 | | Jungels | 75 | 78 | | Oliveira | 75 | 78 | | Andersen | 74 | 78 | | Hofer | 72 | 78 | | Dal Col | 72 | 78 | | Balloni | 71 | 78 | | Boaro | 71 | 78 | | Ligthart | 66 | 78 | | Van Baarle | 76 | 77 | | Bobridge | 74 | 77 | | Lammertink | 74 | 77 |
Startlist:
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| tastasol |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:15
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Very important race for us. Should be a very good race for Bakelants, with only the prologue as a slight worry.
Looking forward to a great battle! Ponzi probably the favourite on home soil, but er should be able to challenge him for the win.
Great preview, Tamijo 
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| ember |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:20
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This is an important race for us, seeing Beltran's training in the winter. Hopefully it gives some kind of improved result here, eventhough the hilly stages look rather easy. Stage 6 though, looks like a good one for Beltran. Hopefully he can run away with a stage result there, while for the GC, I don't have great expectations.
Speaking of stage results, I've got great expectations for the flat stages. With only Van Stayen here of sprinters that should be better or similar on paper, I'm hopeful we get a train, and hopefully we get it right to deliver Ciolek in a perfect position for the sprints, as he should be able to run away with a stage win if we make a good train.
Excited to see how the race plays out! |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:21
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Damn that is a weak team we got here 
Hopefully Haugard Jensens decent PRL star will give him a chance at TOP 15 but more realistic Top 20.
Hopefully some lucky attempts for breakaways. |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:26
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Scully, Lasse, Mohoric, Frankenstaeyen, Kwiatek, Vantomme, go get 'em Great preview Tami and looking forward to what should be a gripping race
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| roturn |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:30
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All-in for De Bie here with the aim to acchieve a top5! Won`t be easy with Van Garderen, Sagan, Kelderman, Trofimov right behind him and the top3-4 hard to beat but those kind of races are made for him and the training money wants some return.
De Bie, got a great team backup and resistance. This must be the most minimum line for a top5 contender. 
Let`s hope he shows more than just his resistance and waiting for the team to work. But you mentioned Zardini as well which is a nice bonus.
With Hagen, Ponzi, Bakelants and 3x 83 puncheurs plus Sagan, TVG, Trofimov here, I think many might have preferred to go to Grand Duche instead, which might be easy big points! |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:45
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Go Trofimov… wait a second
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:47
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roturn wrote:
De Bie, got a great team backup and resistance. This must be the most minimum line for a top5 contender.
Was afraid to put too much pressure on him 
Naa....actually was that I made the preview kinda up-side down, highlight on riders weaker points, so with no clear weakness, he got a short and accurate
but only positive description 
Maybe i should have mentioned a lower end acceleration
Edited by Tamijo on 04-09-2018 07:52
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| Heine |
Posted on 04-09-2018 07:47
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I really hope for a top 5 from TVG, but the field is really strong, might end up regretting not going for Grand Duche as Roturn said, but hopefully Buchmann can do something with 78 there.
The favorites is obvious, but if Trofimov or Bobridge can get a few seconds from the prl they could surprise with a jerseyboost
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| Ad Bot |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 04-09-2018 08:19
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Well, I don't have a good feeling for Bobridge here, even though he had a stage-win at T-A back in 2016 (iirc).. the prologue probably won't be much of an advantage eventually, all I can hope for is a good result in this stage and then a scenario, in which Bobridge takes the race lead on second day (which happened before, P-N last year? - and still ended in a disappointing GC result eventually).. well, he's not too shabby after all and I certainly need a Top-5 at least.
And, please please please, I would really love to finally win a prologue or ITT. Dennis amongst the favorites, so maybe - just maybe - he can be +2/3 on that day and get us a rare stage win? Even though captaincy may be an issue then?
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 04-09-2018 08:43
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roturn wrote:
With Hagen, Ponzi, Bakelants and 3x 83 puncheurs plus Sagan, TVG, Trofimov here, I think many might have preferred to go to Grand Duche instead, which might be easy big points!
Shhh
So, a TT chance for Kittel, and then hopefully Afewerki can break the top 10. Reimer as 'leader' probably would need to get in the breakaway to show much.
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| knockout |
Posted on 04-09-2018 08:47
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If i could wish a startlist it would look a lot like this. Once this profile was confirmed i knew that id send MVS here and Skujins to Grand Duche. I strongly appreciate that ciolek is the closest competitor in the sprints. Im not sure whether mansilla and Dzamastagic are a strong enough leadout but with the amount of hills it should suit Mansilla decently well and in fact this race was a big reason for signing him. Im not sure but this might already be the last race for him as leadout for MVS with Greg about to replace him for the majority of the season.
I hope that he will be quite high in GC after the fourth stage and then he has a chance for a good GC result too. Top 15 looks like a reasonable expectations although i do have hopes for a top 10 if he can grab maximum bonus seconds on both flat stages.
I absolutely love that basically every top puncheur is here. It looks like Skujins is the only one missing here which is very promising for Grand Duche
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-09-2018 10:32
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Well, looks good for Koretzkys chances for a decent result elsewhere
Hoping for my greeks here, and then to see whether or not van der Hugenhaben is really worth anything or not. A top 20 would be nice.
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| fintas |
Posted on 04-09-2018 10:51
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Posts: 2602
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Waiting for another big failure from my team...
We all know that you can not expect much from Vogt, and I feel that either Paulinho or McEvoy can be harmed by having Vogt as the leader.
I hope at least that Kupfernagel is able to do what Silvestre could not do in Qatar, to be in the discussion of the stages to the sprint.
The best possible bet would be to try to enter the breaks and fight for the KoM jersey. For GC it would already be good, a place in the top20
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 04-09-2018 12:51
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Excited for this! Really look forward to see what Ponzi could do on home soil and this race should suit him perfectly! Thanks for the preview.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 04-09-2018 14:51
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Very tough field here. All I hope for is Trofimov to make the top-10 and for Reinhardt to contest the sprints. Some of the stages don't look extremely decisive so this one is hard for me to predict.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-09-2018 17:52
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Ginanni is no longer a top puncheur, so I should only expect moderate success here. Our depth might help us score some extra points though.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 04-09-2018 18:12
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Hopefully Boswell will improve on his result from Badaling. He has to. Maybe a couple of chances for Lammertink from the breakaway as well.
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| SotD |
Posted on 05-09-2018 06:05
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After a very bad Qatar race (and epilogue) Vlatos takes a very good and important win here! It’s always great to take the opener!
Also a decent result from vd Hugenhaben. Now to see what he can at this level.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 05-09-2018 06:39
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Right
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