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5 Jours de Dunkerque Discussion
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 31-12-2017 12:35
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 5 Jours de Dunkerque
Welcome to France, where the 10th edition of the 5 Jours de Dunkerque will be held soon. Surely a key HC race for the division best cobblers and those, who try to benefit from those tricky profiles: a challenging opening stage should already show us, who's in the mix for the GC here. And it's definitely a big goal for many riders to put their name on the illostrous list of race winners for this event: Lionel Biondo (2016) as the defending race champion and guys like Matteo Trentin (2015), Pieter Vanspeybrouck (2012 and 2013), Francesco Ginanni (2010) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (2009) as the biggest names on the honour roll here.
Of course the remaining four flat stages would attract some of the division's best sprinters to attend as well. A few tricky profiles with countless of small KoM sprints, but those four days should be really for the sprinters.
The Startlist
The GC contenders | Favorites | HI | COB | SPR | | Outsiders | HI | COB | SPR |  Burghardt | 70 | 82 | 67 | |  Kamyshev | 65 | 82 | 66 |  Altur | 70 | 80 | 72 | |  Sibilla | 63 | 81 | 66 |  Vanbilsen | 69 | 80 | 72 | |  Nolf | 66 | 80 | 63 |  Daniel | 69 | 80 | 76 | | Thomas | 60 | 79 | 74 |  Wisniowski | 71 | 79 | 73 | | Puccio | 66 | 78 | 60 |  Polanc | 73 | 78 | 67 | | Hristov | 63 | 77 | 66 |  Albert | 69 | 78 | 63 | |  Spengler | 62 | 77 | 57 | | Breschel | 69 | 76 | 76 | | Eeckhout | 61 | 77 | 64 | | Tsatevich | 77 | 75 | 75 | |  Kulppi | 67 | 76 | 65 |  Debesay | 73 | 75 | 69 | | Joseph | 66 | 76 | 66 | | Grashev | 69 | 75 | 65 | | Okbamariam | 65 | 76 | 72 | | Marcos | 73 | 74 | 65 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 64 | 76 | 78 | | Van Asbroeck | 71 | 74 | 80 | | Domene | 57 | 76 | 74 |  Kasperkiewicz | 70 | 74 | 57 | | Rowe | 66 | 75 | 79 | | Kump | 76 | 73 | 80 | | | | | | | Ariko | 72 | 73 | 63 | | Puncheurs | HI | COB | SPR | | Naesen | 72 | 73 | 67 | | Teklit | 77 | 59 | 64 | | | | | | Vastaranta | 75 | 68 | 74 | | | | | |  Mutsumine | 75 | 58 | 62 | | | | | | Mørkøv | 74 | 70 | 74 | | | | | | Jans | 74 | 68 | 74 |
A race with such a profile is always hard to predict: will the hills in the opening day be the main key for any success? Or the cobbles? Will some sprinters manage to limit the damage and remain a real threat for the GC if the hills don't do the damage? Will crosswinds destroy someone's dreams here? Will Marko Kump save his manager's season for another time? Will Marcus Burghardt finally deliver for his new team?
Well. Let's just begin with the guys, who can do both hills and cobbles: obviously, there's riders like Tsatevich and Kump, who stand out with their high hill stat. Both can ride the pavé decently and both come with a sprint stat as well. Kump clearly as a good bet for the GC. The same goes for Van Asbroeck, who's the sprinter who can do cobbles and a slightly worse climbing than Kump. He delivered last year though, where he finished 4th in the final GC here.
The same has to count for Burghardt: there's really no outstanding climber amongst the very best cobblers, so the German will surely aim for the first stage. Just like Altur, Wisnioski and Polanc, who all combine 70+ HI and 78+ COB, while Altur and Wisniowski come with the superior finishing skills of those guys. Vanbilsen, Daniel, Albert and Breschel not quite reaching the 70 HI, but they are close enough to feature the favorites list.
Opposing to Kamyshev, Sibilla, Nolf or Thomas. Amongst the best cobblers here, they should really suffer from the climbs in the opener. They have to hope for a less selective race or a scenario, in which the cobblers outplay the puncheurs easily. Everything is possible with the engine we got here.
The Stage hunters | Sprinters | HI | COB | SPR | | Sprinters | HI | COB | SPR | | Van Heerden | 68 | 71 | 82 | | Rowe | 66 | 75 | 79 | | Vantomme | 64 | 70 | 82 | | Afewerki | 63 | 69 | 79 |  Goss | 67 | 60 | 82 | | Peeters | 62 | 68 | 79 | | Kennaugh | 65 | 58 | 82 | |  Scully | 67 | 67 | 79 | | Appollonio | 66 | 65 | 81 | | Matthews | 64 | 66 | 79 |  Guillén | 61 | 61 | 81 | | Reinhardt | 67 | 62 | 79 | | Van Asbroeck | 71 | 74 | 80 | |  Santos | 64 | 62 | 79 | | Kump | 76 | 73 | 80 | | Hayakawa | 64 | 57 | 79 | | Holloway | 69 | 65 | 80 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 64 | 76 | 78 | | Drapac | 53 | 64 | 80 | | Cisse | 63 | 63 | 78 | | Kupfernagel | 64 | 63 | 80 | | Sobota | 60 | 61 | 78 |
Let's begin the sprinters preview with the previous stage winners here: Appollonio and Van Asbroeck both took a stage in last year's edition, Holloway one stage in 2014. And then there's Van Heerden, who combined for four stage-wins in the years 2010 and 2011. Quite a while ago, but the slow accelerating veteran may fancy his chances to add another stage win to his palmares, as he combines the three key stats pretty well. Vantomme as another top sprinter, who can survive cobbles well enough.
Goss, Kennaugh, Guillén, Drapac and Kupfernagel as the remaining 80+ sprinters, who wil only aim for the sprints here. Opposing to Rowe and Nepomnyachsniy, who will also hope to be a factor in the GC.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 31-12-2017 12:40
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Allez Maxime! Home race.
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| fintas |
Posted on 31-12-2017 12:40
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I'm not sure what to expect from the team in this race, in GC the hopes are nil and I expect 0 points. Our best chance is for breaks and KoM jersey, in a good day Kupfernagel can also achieve something positive in stages 2 3 and 4.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 31-12-2017 12:41
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Albert has been pretty disappointing in cobbled races so far, I hope he can turn his luck around.
Drapac for the sprints, but I don't know how well he'll cope with the cobbles and hills here.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 13:14
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 31-12-2017 12:44
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Another key race here, let's start the next year with a bang! Top 5 is the goal here and we have 2 options. Either Vanbilsen aces the cobbles tage and holds on for a top 5, either Van Asbroeck does his thing from last year again. And please, no more Zabels!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 31-12-2017 14:48
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Rowe as our number 1 in the startlist, hopefully it won't mean anything for Wisniowski on that first stage.
A race we have great memories from after Trentin's victory two years ago. Very tough startlist here, with plenty of riders very well suited to the kind of finish on the first stage and in general. If Kump manages to do good on that first stage, he has all the chances to continue a fantastic season here. Van Asbroeck and Tsatevich also very interesting names here.
A top five goal for us, so hopefully Wisniowski or Rowe will do good.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 31-12-2017 14:57
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Marcus needs to start delivering on the £2million price tag, no better race that here to make that money count for something. Should suit him well on the opening day, hopefully he makes an agressive ride of it to pick up time.
Grashev has always gone fairly well on hillier days, and Matthews has been slowly making a name for himself this year as well. Certainly the Barbadian will be one to watch over the race distance if he feels like sprinting as well.
Then there's G, the ever present G. He's gone decently in this race before and without total leadership pressure he might be an interesting one to watch if the AI is clever.
Plus the usual assortment of support riders in Stefan, Jyme, Wolverine and Huynh picking up XP.
In any cobbles race we're looking at the Win. Same here. A Top5 needs to come to keep us away from relegation scrapping. Outside the Top10 and we're in big trouble. A stage win or two would be icing on the cake and those day-to-day placings could bring some nice extra points.
Good luck, lads!
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| Shonak |
Posted on 31-12-2017 15:03
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Loved our performance here last year, Langeveld second in GC and Van der Sande trolling Vantomme. Hopefully Vantomme gets his stage wins this year, and Kump hopefully coming in with some momentum.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 31-12-2017 15:10
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This is a weird race for us. We really don't have any riders that are suited to all of it, just a bunch that are kinda suited to some elements. I was sorta hoping Appo would have an easier field like in some past stage races, but should've known better. We'll just see what happens I guess.
Wildcard - I hope De Maar does some long range attacking here. That would be really fun.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-12-2017 15:53
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Top 5 goal race. It is tailor made for Polanc, and Kump should have a good shot on a top 5 as well. Hopefully we can deliver big time!
Plus the usual assortment of support riders in Stefan, Jyme, Wolverine and Huynh picking up XP.
But with the clear favourite again not sending a proper squad I would be very surprised if stage one is not one for the breakaway again...
Edited by Croatia14 on 31-12-2017 16:00
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 31-12-2017 15:57
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Wait, how many people have top 5 goals here? 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 31-12-2017 15:59
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Croatia14 wrote:
Plus the usual assortment of support riders in Stefan, Jyme, Wolverine and Huynh picking up XP.
But with the clear favourite again not sending a proper squad I would be very surprised if stage one is not one for the breakaway again...
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 31-12-2017 16:02
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The first cobbled stage race went very well for Eritel, so let's see how Dunkerque goes. Ideally getting into the breakaway on Stage 1 again. Okbamariam did it in De Panne, but here Debesay or even Ariko would be better.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 31-12-2017 21:21
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Probably the best chance Altur has had to win a stage race in his career. Should be a fun one. No crashes please.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 31-12-2017 22:20
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One of my favourite races on the calendar, really looking forward to this race. 
Vantomme is here to flollop around and not get a stage win, this year we have stronger cobbles riders than last year - 2 even made the preview, but they have a special aversion to joining breaks and even if they didn't, Vantomme would hold them back anyway, so they'll probably be a waste here.
Could surely be a big race for Kump and Van Asbroeck, with the flat stages for time bonuses, while guys like Polanc, Tsatsevich and maybe Wisniowski can have a big first stage.
Shonak wrote:
Loved our performance here last year, Langeveld second in GC and Van der Sande trolling Vantomme. Hopefully Vantomme gets his stage wins this year, and Kump hopefully coming in with some momentum.
He's not here this year, so Vantomme must get a stage, right?
Thank you very much for the in-depth preview tsmoha!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 01-01-2018 08:10
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With cobbles being our weakest point, we can only really hope for Goss to pick up a sneaky stage win at some point.
Thanks for the preview tsmoha!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 01-01-2018 12:34
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 01-01-2018 12:35
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This is De Panne all over again, a great stage unfolds and we do f*ck all at the finish. AI is screwing me on the cobble races I need to survive.
Thanks for the report, although you kinda ruined 2018 for me 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 01-01-2018 12:36
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Great report! Im very happy with Dillier in the surviving breakaway since that puts him ahead of where Spengler would have finished anyway. Now if only there were a TT then he would have a great position to win.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 01-01-2018 12:46
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Have been looking forward to this all day, but that was kind of a bummer. Surprised to see the final being so extremly dull.
Big result for Newton and Isostar, both seeming very likely to score big here now. Wisniowski and Rowe both in the first group, just a pity that they, seemingly, didn't try more for the stage win. Need them to stay at the front fot the coming stages and hopefully Rowe can manage to snatch some bonus seconds, so that we can achieve our top five goal.
No surprise seeing Van Asbroeck and Kump survive the selection. More surprised to see Holloway making it. Should be interesting to follow the GC battle in the coming days. A bit more wind should suit both Rowe and Wisniowski well, so would certainly welcome that.
Surprised to see Burghardt failing. At least Hristov managed to save Podium Ambition from the break. Kamushev also failing again. He can blame the crash, but I'm beginning to really doubt the chances for Orange this season. Promotion still very much within range, but it's beginning to be quite a lot of poor results now.
Thanks for the report, tsmoha
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
