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Tour Down Under Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 24-10-2017 17:51
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The Tour Down Under usually being the first stage race of the MG season. Nothing changed and hence here we are for the C1 event in Down Under.
The season not officially started yet and riders might still prepare elsewhere for the moment but as it's the first stage race, the time for the discussion can start as first teams were seen around the route already.
It`s a huge event usually for the PCT`s top puncheurs and seeing the top4 of 2016 at the start again plus the 2016 dominator in hilly races as addition and many more, we should get a thrilling race. No Boasson Hagen or Van Garderen though, who surely need to save their limited race days here.
Coming to those top favourites with some information:
 Flügel was one of the division`s best in 2016 but he changed teams and hence more question marks behind him. He won the race last year though and surely is capable to repeat this.
 Di Maggio surely had a tough 2016. Hence quite surprising seeing him 2nd on the result page here as it might have been his best performance all year. Also with a new team, he surely wants to get back into form.
 Froome remained with the team and this might give him some small advantage. Definitely one, who wants to improve on the podium.
 Ulissi as 4th last year also remained with Generali and is their hope for the podium. Some better positioning or sprinting for bonus seconds in the perfectly suited event should see him do well again.
 Kinoshita didn`t race here last season but must be named. He was simply the dominating puncheur in the PCT and hence is far on top of the favourite list.
Minor mentions of  Anuar Aziz,  Schreurs or  Gautier, who surely have the skillset to perform decent here. The Aussies surely hope for  Watson but to be honest, his chances are rather small.
| Hill | Sp | Acc | | Hill | Sp | Acc | | Froome | 82 | 54 | 75 | Barrio | 79 | 65 | 67 | | Di Maggio | 82 | 64 | 75 |  Reichenbach | 79 | 62 | 69 | | Anuar Aziz | 81 | 67 | 71 |  Paulinho | 78 | 68 | 75 | | Flügel | 81 | 68 | 74 |  Caruso | 78 | 70 | 77 | | Kinoshita | 81 | 68 | 77 |  Barbin | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Schreurs | 81 | 71 | 74 | Palini | 78 | 68 | 74 | | Vogt | 80 | 62 | 63 | Watson | 78 | 62 | 72 | | Ulissi | 80 | 74 | 75 |  Mohoric | 78 | 66 | 75 |  Klemme | 80 | 66 | 66 | Quevedo | 78 | 65 | 75 | | Gautier | 80 | 68 | 77 | Mehr-Wenige | 78 | 66 | 67 |  Waeytens | 79 | 66 | 73 | Serry | 78 | 62 | 69 |
A race that often is decided by a combination of puncheur skills and sprinting for bonus seconds, some riders surely must feel confident. Ulissi, Schreurs, Barbin or last years stage winner Caruso as good examples but in general many puncheurs here have a decent speed in the end.
One of their main issues is the amount of sprinters, that feel comfortable on hills. If those are able to go for sprint bonifications and then hang on in the harder stages, they might suddenly be in the mix for the GC.
| Hill | Sp | Acc | | Kump | 76 | 80 | 80 | | Modolo | 73 | 78 | 81 | | Kreder | 75 | 77 | 78 | | Theuns | 74 | 77 | 76 | | Kuboki | 73 | 77 | 77 | | Favilli | 75 | 76 | 74 |  Bole | 74 | 76 | 74 | | Kadri | 76 | 74 | 78 |
And last but not least the list of sprinters here is incredible. In especially seeing the amount of really flat sprints, which was actually just one stage last season.
Still nice to see the new PCT sprint stars here being named Mohs, Cavendish and Goss.
You already see that the Aussies might hope for the sprints more than the GC, in especially as  Nelson, Docker or  Von Hoff are also in the mix.
Talking about the top favourites Fablok here with the new sprint train for Mohs as well incl. former PT stage winner Guardini, while Kraftwerk supporting Cavendish with hilly sprinter Kreder. Surely two interesting options. Another rider with extra mentioning is Kump as he surely is the one with biggest chances for a) sprint bonifications and b) challenging the puncheurs on Willunga Hill.
Last years winner of stage 1 Vanoverschelde surely will have it a lot more difficult.
| Hill | Sp | Acc | | Hill | Sp | Acc | | Mohs | 65 | 83 | 82 | Itami | 61 | 80 | 82 | | Cavendish | 65 | 83 | 81 | Serebriakov | 61 | 80 | 77 | | Goss | 67 | 82 | 78 | Pelucchi | 68 | 79 | 77 |  Thorsen | 54 | 82 | 85 | Docker | 68 | 79 | 77 |  Guillén | 61 | 81 | 82 | Reinhardt | 67 | 79 | 84 | | Nelson | 60 | 81 | 81 | Von Hoff | 66 | 79 | 77 | | Kump | 76 | 80 | 80 | Colbrelli | 61 | 79 | 75 | | Kupfernagel | 64 | 80 | 80 | Modolo | 73 | 78 | 81 | | Guardini | 64 | 80 | 82 |  Kruopis | 70 | 78 | 77 | | Bouhanni | 63 | 80 | 77 | Manninen | 66 | 78 | 78 | | Vanoverschelde | 62 | 80 | 75 |  Brus | 64 | 78 | 78 |
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| Vien |
Posted on 24-10-2017 17:57
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Small Tour Specialist
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Whoa, MGUCI picking up the pace. I'm rooting for Kump, as I love punchy spinters. |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 24-10-2017 17:58
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Grand Tour Champion
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Wait I didn't expect that amount of strong sprinters  Surely not much of a chance for Serebriakov to do well now. GC-wise the Kadri-Klemme combo will ride together for the first and definitely not last time. Interesting to see how that unfolds, hopefully quite good 
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| matt17br |
Posted on 24-10-2017 18:02
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Our season opener! Glad not to see EBH and TVG in a race that suits Ulissi and Theuns very well, but it has to be expected when it's merely a C1.
Last year the Ulissi+Theuns combo didn't work, like, at all. As in, Theuns didn't even sprint and would just lead his hilly captain out to see him miserably top 15, top 10 sometimes. However while I kinda assume that something similar will happen again, I'm at least hoping that Theuns will actually contend stage 3. Aiming for a top 5 for Ulissi in the GC and hoping for a stage win maybe?
Don't see anyone touching Kinoshita here obviously, and it will be interesting to see if Mohs is Lo Cicero V2 or his backups will let him down more than they did for the Italian. Fablok's promotion pretty much depends on how much PCM likes him.
Thanks for hosting roturn!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 23-11-2024 21:22
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 24-10-2017 18:03
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Come on, Gossy! 
Would be cool to see him repeating the stage-win he had with Oz here back in 2014.
Always hard to predict, which puncheurs will deliver here and outscore those dangerous punchy sprinters like Kump. One would expect Ulissi to do well, but I will put my virtual money on Kinoshita. Looking forward to those Australian Summer events.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-10-2017 18:25
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A good field here, so in truth just happy to get a mention for Watson here. Hopefully he can do something around a top 15 here on home soil.
Ulissi for the win 
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| fintas |
Posted on 24-10-2017 18:45
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I'm not expecting much in this race, Vogt would have to be in super shape to be able to keep up with the best. I actually believe in Paulinho more than Vogt. Kupfernagel will have a difficult task with so many good sprinters.
Some stage top 10 and maybe the top 15 overall will be the best we will achieve
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 24-10-2017 18:51
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Tour de France Champion
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Rolling out the XP Train here; Lawless, Le Court, Vanderpool, Huynh, Lilovski, De Vos. But backed up by Nelson as a proven sprinter with Docker to lead him out. It's going to be an interesting race for us. Potential for a stage win but a big test for the youngsters to show themselves. Won't be the first time you see this XP Train rocking together either...
Oh, and our first stage race of the year needs a great gif... who to choose....
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 24-10-2017 19:02
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It will be very interesting to see how Gautier will do in a strong field here.
For the sprints Manninen will have free hands to chase whatever he can - a top 10 would be nice.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 24-10-2017 19:30
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World Champion
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Seems like our season start is much busier than last year. Not sure what to think of Pelucchi getting the team leadership instead of Waeytens. Hoping the former can get a good result in one of the harder sprint stages while the latter would do great with a GC top 10. Not the best support here though, a result of too many riders needing to level up.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 24-10-2017 19:33
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Need Bouhanni to perform well here and will be interesting to see the trio of Caruso, Le Gac and Zingle try and get something in the GC.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 24-10-2017 19:59
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Grand Tour Champion
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Enjoy not having to chase down TVG while you can.
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| knockout |
Posted on 24-10-2017 20:13
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Grand Tour Champion
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It's Kump time, baby!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 24-10-2017 20:24
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Grand Tour Specialist
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One of my favorite races in the PCT calendar, mostly thanks to Reimer good results last two seasons.
Kump will be tough. |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 24-10-2017 20:28
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Tour de France Champion
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Not really sure what to expect here, but it'll definitely be interesting to see how Schreurs performs against the other puncheurs in the PCT. He did well the last time we were in this division, so, fingers crossed. |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-10-2017 20:45
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Directeur Sportif
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Hoped for a less strong sprinters peloton, but well, you can't have everything. Go Kump! Jans and Mansilla should be the perfect combination of uphill sprint power to lead him out. Hoping for a stage win and the green jersey plus optimally a Top 10/ couple of days in yellow as well.
Oh and before I forget: Mohoric to go for his first white jersey at Isostar.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 24-10-2017 20:57
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Small Tour Specialist
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Kraftwerk's chances of achieving our top 5 goal are boosted by the absence of EBH and TGV in the start list so well done Ruby Twoface 
Flügel won here last year and I am hoping he can find that form again, however margins are likely to be small, could go any number of ways.
Cav vs Mohs and Goss should be good to watch and if they can take up enough bonus seconds it might keep Kump from challenging the puncheurs for the overall.
Great preview, really looking forward to the racing.
It's quite hard to type with your fingers crossed
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 24-10-2017 21:31
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Wow, that sprinter field is packed! Last year Vantomme did poorly amongst a much weaker sprinters field because many of the stages are quite hilly, will be interesting to see how Mohs, Cav, Goss and others perform but honestly I would definitely pick Kump (and Modolo) far ahead in stages 2 and 4, maybe even stage 1 as well and the breakaway in stage 6.
Would love to be here but knew that it wouldn't be a good race for me as it wasn't last season, it is a nice chance for the top puncheurs to avoid EBH and TVG though, so last years puncheur brigade of Kinoshia, Froome, Ullisi and Flugel can battle it out, maybe with an interlude from Kump.
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 24-10-2017 22:43
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World Champion
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Perfect, originally didn't have Kinoshita here, but had extra race days, and made it fit, as I had a hunch this would be a good bet to avoid EBH. Hopefully it pays off.
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 24-10-2017 22:49
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Tour de France Champion
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We can only hope  |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
