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Manx International Discussion
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 29-12-2016 13:37
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Directeur Sportif
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Manx International
| Category: HC | 182,1 km | terrain: hilly |  Isle of Man |
Another PCT race brought to you by the Isle of Man cycling association, and the terrain is pretty similar. Though instead of the TT range of yesterday's race it's three times the length tomorrow. So instead of the big-legs guys it's one for the explosive guys on the 5th edition of the Manx International. The past has shown very different outcomes and a battle between punchy sprinters and attacking puncheurs, so it will be very interesting what this anniversary edition will bring us.
Sometimes it's strange to look at the former winners and then at the current startlist: Bobridge (2014) is not here for obvious reasons. But Bellis (2012) & Sanchez Gil (2015) is a strange miss here, but most likely due to HC choices. Both races would as already proven fit perfectly though. Instead we have the 2013 winner  Ventoso here. He won't go for himself though, but instead try to deliver his captain Kump to the finishing line. The strongest performer of last year here again is PT guest  Meyer, who offers a good skillset here.
| Puncheurs | Hil | Spr | Acc | Sta | Res | Fla | Mon | Dhl |  Di Maggio | 82 | 64 | 75 | 73 | 68 | 65 | 65 | 73 |  McCarthy | 81 | 63 | 74 | 80 | 75 | 70 | 67 | 71 |  Anuar Aziz | 81 | 67 | 71 | 78 | 73 | 72 | 68 | 65 | | Zaini | 80 | 65 | 70 | 74 | 65 | 66 | 66 | 81 | | Bilbao | 79 | 71 | 75 | 77 | 71 | 71 | 67 | 66 |  Cunego | 79 | 64 | 74 | 74 | 78 | 69 | 80 | 70 |  Dyrnes | 78 | 65 | 77 | 73 | 73 | 68 | 72 | 74 |  Serry | 78 | 62 | 69 | 71 | 70 | 68 | 75 | 66 |  Boswell | 78 | 64 | 74 | 75 | 72 | 69 | 70 | 67 | | Meyer | 78 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 74 | 69 | 62 | | Landa | 78 | 61 | 69 | 70 | 69 | 65 | 69 | 67 |  Waeytens | 78 | 66 | 73 | 72 | 70 | 70 | 71 | 75 |  Palini | 78 | 68 | 74 | 75 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 61 |  Edmondson | 78 | 70 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 69 | 72 |  Borges | 78 | 71 | 81 | 75 | 73 | 70 | 70 | 65 |  Roux | 78 | 57 | 75 | 78 | 71 | 74 | 65 | 65 | | Vanendert | 78 | 56 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 61 | | Punchy Sprinters | | | | | | | | |  Villella | 77 | 65 | 80 | 72 | 74 | 72 | 64 | 70 |  Felline | 77 | 74 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 68 | 66 | 71 |  Tsatevich | 77 | 75 | 75 | 74 | 73 | 74 | 62 | 69 | | Kump | 76 | 79 | 80 | 76 | 73 | 74 | 66 | 73 |  Kadri | 76 | 74 | 78 | 77 | 69 | 73 | 70 | 74 | | Kreder | 75 | 77 | 78 | 75 | 71 | 73 | 64 | 67 | | Ventoso | 74 | 76 | 74 | 74 | 69 | 73 | 64 | 60 | | Van Asbroeck | 71 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 75 | 53 | 68 | | Climbers | | | | | | | | |  Beltran | 77 | 65 | 74 | 72 | 71 | 69 | 77 | 74 | | Scarponi | 75 | 62 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 68 | 77 | 83 | | Zardini | 77 | 72 | 68 | 70 | 66 | 69 | 76 | 74 |
Not fully all the top-class puncheurs of the PCT are present here, which is shown by only 6 79+ puncheurs, which will surely paint a smile on the rop prospects for the Manx International. The #1 puncheur of this race might be Jay McCarthy. The captain of the red-bearded might feel really good on what is close to a home race, especially looking at his option to become the next winner. Beneath his outstanding hill stat he has the widest skillset of the 80+ riders.
Anuar Aziz is pretty similar to the Australian but just slightly worse in the back-up stats. He might struggle though by having to share the captain role with Zaini. The italian, who normally should be the outstanding helper of the former, has really worse back-ups then other contenders. But looking at his downhill he might have a go on a slower race with a late attack. Di Maggio could achieve a solid placement, but he is clearly lacking the extra thing to win in any possible scenario due to the lack of an uphill finish here.
The most interesting positions might be the #5 & #6 on the statsheet: Bilbao has a decent enough sprint to win from a very reduced group, and on top of that okay back-ups. He is most likely to serve his Slovenian captain though, at least if PCM doesn't do strange things to the designated Hugo Boss leader.
Damiano Cunego instead might be the real top favourite of the day. His overwhelming mountain stat looks frightening for the other opponents, so that everything screams towards an attack on the final climb. Could anybody resist something like that if it's coming? The Giro hero might look like the next LuLu Sanchez here.
Then we have a lot of 78 puncheurs from PCT and the various PCT teams. To point out the ones who went really well this year on HC level we have the already mentioned Meyer, Dyrnes, and Waeytens. Borges and Villella are very interesting options for that fast kick for a quick acceleration. They still wouldn't take a real punch sprint though.
There Kump and his armada of punchy sprinters (Bilbao, Ventoso, Marcato) might be the option #1. But then there are 4 more great options to rely on that: Felline, Tsatevich, Kadri and Kreder. If they survive until the finish then they could really earn their team a ton of points here.
The biggest gamble on the startlist might be Van Asbroeck. If the Lierse rider makes it to the finishing line on a competitive position, then well done Lierse for a genious effort. But he'll most likely have a hard time on the climbing section, which makes it a really spicy gamble.
Finally we have some strong climbers that could really work out by going on for a long range or last climb attack. While Beltran really needs to go solo on the climbs and his his freedom for it, Scarponi can wait a little longer. If he doesn't have to serve for his italian captain for some reason, then his genious descending ability might turn himk into a real danger. Zardini as the last enlighted rider will try to go as hard as possible on the climbs to then try his luck from a very reduced bunch with his decent sprint.
We've seen that this race is so much more than favourites in the past, so here is the full startlist:
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| matt17br |
Posted on 29-12-2016 13:49
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
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I could have sworn we were here, not sure how I convinced myself this was our next race 
Hard race to predict, several scenarios could unfold, so it's difficult to say whether it will favour an attack from further out or a sprint. Should provide decent action though, I really dislike how pcm 15 AI treats hilly finishes, and any kind of different hilly route is seriously a welcome change, especially in the lower divisions.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 29-12-2016 13:53
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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With the team I have here I wouldn't settle for anything less than a top 5 to be honest, however we all know PCM can do funny stuff, and it likely will do...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| ember |
Posted on 29-12-2016 15:00
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Fingers crossed for another good performance from Dyrnes/Hoelgaard. As pointed out in the preview, there are a couple of the top PCT puncheurs missing here due to the band picks, which obviously makes the race more open and increases the chances of those that rarely shine, like the huge bunch of 77/78 puncheurs present.
Difficult to pick a winner, but I do fancy Kump's chances.
Great preview, Croatia14! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 29-12-2016 15:16
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World Champion
Posts: 14563
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Nice preview, totally agree about the Van Asbroeck gamble. It's a nice backup to have, but I do hope Waeytens doesn't wait for him 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 29-12-2016 19:00
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2282
Joined: 13-03-2011
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Expectating either Bilbao or Kump to turn up here, preferably Kump cause he has a better chance of winning
Anyway really forward to this, nice preview indeed !
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 29-12-2016 20:35
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
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I wish I had LLS here but he's at the TDF, so Palini will have to do, nothing that is.
Don't like the downhill finishes, but imo Indosat or Hugo Boss will take it.
Thanks for the in-depth preview Croatia!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 30-12-2016 08:42
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Sprinter
Posts: 1507
Joined: 23-07-2010
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Thanks for one more detailed analysis, Croatia!
Indeed Di Maggio struggled to perform in the final efford last year. And that race was one reason why he had extra lessons in sprinting at off-season. As the expert stated it won't be enough to win it, but going for a top5 is absolutely doable.
Otherwise it's quite an open event, where the favourite with the best day likely make it. Tough to predict, I didn't dare to place a bet.
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| Ad Bot |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 31-12-2016 15:19
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Another great Manx race. There are 3 main candidates, but it could very well end up going to one of those "punchy sprinters" depending on the speed used on the climbs.
Lots of competition though. Even if one of those top3 favourites wins I'd still feel pretty good if were one of their managers.
Looking forward to the race. Thanks again Croatia 
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 31-12-2016 15:55
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
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Ending the actual year with a bang! Huge race for us in terms of chasing possible promotion. Thought Cunego was actually pulling it off like LLS did last season, shame he couldn't hang on until the end, however Prevar winning is arguably a much better thing for my team being based in Ukraine and shit, that boy has developed into a really good rider for us.
Would probably argue last year's San Sebastian was a bigger win, however this is amazing as well!
Thank you Croatia!
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 31-12-2016 15:58
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Directeur Sportif
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fjhoekie wrote:
Would probably argue last year's San Sebastian was a bigger win, however this is amazing as well!
how could you have had a bigger win than a HC classic so far?
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| matt17br |
Posted on 31-12-2016 16:00
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10525
Joined: 28-09-2013
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how could you have had a bigger win than a HC classic so far?
With another HC classic! Ohh San Sebastian, the memories <3
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 31-12-2016 16:32
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7681
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Given I'd forgotten we were racing HCs at all, that was a particularly pleasing result for us. Well done Josh and thanks for the report.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 31-12-2016 16:41
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2282
Joined: 13-03-2011
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Prevar again dafuq  Congratz FJ!
Bilbao super strong today, so happy to have him. Good job by Marcato aswell.
Kump though, really not living up to his expectations :/
Thanks for another class report croatia!
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| Shonak |
Posted on 31-12-2016 16:55
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Tour de France Champion
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I closely decided against Modolo sending here, now I regret it. Nice to see strava in action and Vanendert climbing well, too bad the group didn't stay away. thanks for the report, croatia! keep it up in 2017, happy new year everyone.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 31-12-2016 21:54
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Team Leader
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LLS wasn't there, so now Prevar can leave the other HC classics where he is there alone? Congrats fjhoeckie!
There was this golden moment in the report when I thought 'Palini might top ten.' Oh well.
Thanks Crowtia for the great report!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| ember |
Posted on 01-01-2017 00:23
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Team Leader
Posts: 6849
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Cool to see us work during the race, eventhough we came away from it with no result. Big congratulations, fjhoekie! Must be great to see a rider like Prevar take it for you, in a way that really was a perfect team play, with both Cunego and Prevar playing their hands to the maximum, I'd say.
Also some very good PT teams results here, with 2nd, 4th and 5th all being claimed by PT teams. Congratulations to you as well!
Thank you for a top notch report, Croatia14! |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 01-01-2017 00:51
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4505
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Definitely didn't expect that! Congrats on the win and thanks for the report croatia!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 01-01-2017 04:09
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Classics Specialist
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Kinda forgot we were at this race, little disappointed it wasn't a harder race with wayyy too many people at the finish line. Needed Beltran to find something special. Did at least like being in the breakaway, was hoping there were bigger plans around that move though.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 01-01-2017 09:57
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Sprinter
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Tricked by the Ukrainians, well executed sprint by Prevar!
We didn't really get what we were looking for, but regarding the unpredictable race development and the displayed commitment by Di Maggio the result seems embraceable.
Thanks for the entertaining report, Croatia!
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