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4 Jours de Dunkerque Discussion
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-10-2016 10:03
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Spoiler sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry 
 4 Jours de Dunkerque
1 hilly/cobbled (hilltop finish) | 1 flat (uphill finish) | 3 flat
A tough, hilly, cobbled stage that will likely sort the GC followed by four day's worth of sprinting means that anything can and will happen except climbing. The sprint stages mean that a sprinter who can come less than 30-ish seconds down on stage one would be the favourite - however it'll need to be pretty passive racing for that.
| Rider | COB | HIL | SPR | Rider | COB | HIL | SPR |  Summerhill | 83 | 73 | 72 |  Lagab | 76 | 71 | 72 |  Baugnies | 80 | 72 | 65 | Gaudin | 77 | 68 | 57 |  Vanbilsen | 80 | 69 | 72 | Debesay | 75 | 73 | 69 | | Van Asbroeck | 74 | 71 | 80 |  Gaday | 74 | 73 | 68 |  Breschel | 77 | 70 | 77 |  Ferreira | 79 | 68 | 71 |  Zepuntke | 81 | 69 | 62 |  Verbist | 77 | 64 | 58 | | Langeveld | 76 | 72 | 63 |  Young | 74 | 69 | 78 | | Polanc | 76 | 72 | 65 |  Vantomme | 70 | 64 | 82 |
A unique race in that, if somebody such as Summerhill or Baugnies, or indeed a breakawy member, wins solo by a decent margin on stage 1 they just need to stay at the front and finish in the pack every day for the rest of the race. In this situation depending on if he can keep the margin under 30 seconds the one person who could nick the jersey would be Van Asbroeck, primarily a sprinter but, as he's shown in races such as De Panne, capable on the pavè.
There's a few other scenarios we can explore but it all comes down to this for the overall title: the winner fo stage 1 will likely take the GC, barring accidents, unless a sprinter can take it with bonuses (10 at finish lines).
| Sprinter | SPR | ACC | Sprinter | SPR | ACC | | Vantomme | 82 | 78 | Van der Sande | 79 | 79 | | Avelino | 83 | 78 | Wippert | 78 | 82 |  Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | Boivin | 79 | 80 | | Zabel | 81 | 79 |  Matthews | 79 | 79 |  Appollonio | 81 | 78 | Van Heerden | 82 | 73 | | Van Asbroeck | 80 | 78 |  Petit | 79 | 78 |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 21-10-2016 10:10
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Here for stage wins, Vantomme should be a pretty good shot on the flat stages but it's a strong field so it won't be easy.
As for the GC, Summerhill should win but I'll pick Vanbilsen for someone different, or Van Asbroeck but he'll need to do some very good sprinting.
Thanks a lot for the preview jandal, looking forward to the racing! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-10-2016 10:11
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We need to do something after our race planning fiasco of the sprint classics. A stage win and a good GC should be possible here!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 21-10-2016 10:18
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Vanderbiest to win 3 stages. Please.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 21-10-2016 10:25
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Ahh what a shame I'm not in this band, would have been a pretty good race for us with Teunissen, Taillefour, Belletti and Theuns.
Picking Baugnies for this one to see Stravas magic continue, but I wouldn't mind Summerhill dominating a stage race either!
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-10-2016 11:12
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Minor hopes for Verbist or Wippert to get us a few points here. The one race, where I truly miss Visconti though.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 00:29
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 21-10-2016 13:59
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Actually have a half decent chance of some points here with polanc and Young also having Boivon for the sprints is going to mean we should have a chance everyday |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 21-10-2016 14:02
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Stage 1 looks perfect for a rider with solid cobbles, hill and sprint stats... so Laporte will hopefully win from the break. Or Chatarunga, I have to have some optimism 
If the first stage isn't too selective then Petit might do something here, similar kind of rider to Haussler who did well for me in this race a few seasons ago. |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 21-10-2016 14:14
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jph27 wrote:
Stage 1 looks perfect for a rider with solid cobbles, hill and sprint stats... so Laporte will hopefully win from the break.
Is it possible that Laporte doesn't win?
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Shonak |
Posted on 21-10-2016 14:27
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After De Panne I'm optimistic for another GC podium, maybe also Tosh can win some stages. Looking forward to the stages j7.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Margh Norway |
Posted on 21-10-2016 16:43
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Thanks for the preview, jandal!
Not our cup of tea, these kind of races..., but at least lots of room for improvement. Last year we were invisible and Gatto finished as our best as 35th. This year we will attend in bunch sprints (Appollonio), breakaways (Pat Lane), the best young rider competition (de Tier) AND... Oscar Gatto will still be our best as 35th.
First stage can already be crucial. Curious about the gaps and wonder if there isn't a noteworthy puncher (76+) joining the fun?
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 21-10-2016 19:11
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Obviously key for us to take the first stage here, and to do so with some margin to keep Summerhill in front the rest of the race. Major event for us that week really need to do well and make sure we come away with many points.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 21-10-2016 19:15
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go Polanc!
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 21-10-2016 19:28
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I have to admit that I have my hopes up a bit for Breschel here after some good performances lately.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 22-10-2016 01:20
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Well, that's a way to (likely?) win the GC of a HC race 
PCM15 doesn't take these kind of stages well at all. Congrats to Ian for being on the winning side of this random number generator.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 22-10-2016 02:11
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fantastic job by Polanc! oh I can't wait to have him on my team next season...also congrats to Ian!
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 22-10-2016 05:34
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Think this might be the nail in the coffin for Azteca and Summerhill. Not sure we can stay up if we aren't getting winning points from races we should be winning.
AZTECA - NBCSN |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 22-10-2016 06:51
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Well that's some bad luck for the GC teams, congrats Ian, but seriously quite disappointing for some teams.
For us a nothing stage, quite a large group that I was hoping Vantomme could be in but somehow he lost a lot of time, hopefully saving energy for the sprint stages
Thanks for the great report jandal! |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 22-10-2016 08:49
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Wow, that was some terrible AI 
As expected, we don't have a chance in the GC, so stage hunting it'll be!
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-10-2016 09:13
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A very odd race, especially Vanbilsen getting a time gap, but things look ok for Van Asbroeck now. But hey, well done SanCor!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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