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Bayern Rundfahrt Discussion
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| matt17br |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:28
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Directeur Sportif
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 Bayern Rundfahrt
7th ever edition for what has become one of PCT’s historic events for Time Trialists that like to tackle short hills, or well, the other way around: the Bayern Rundfahrt, a stage race that resembles many similar events in the calendar, but is still quite unique because of its only long-ish Time Trial and single Ardennaise kind of stage, alongside 3 sprint finishes.
You would think that these characteristics wouldn’t attract a wide array of riders, and in fact, it’s got one of the shortest startlists you’ll ever see in a stage race: only 104 riders from 13 teams decided to take part in a stage race that is not HC, and therefore is a lot more team preference dependent.
After a good showing in Tour de San Luis, where they went head-to-head,  Froome, a pure puncheur, one of the stronger in the division, and  Costa, a slightly weaker climber that can however TT with the best: the difference in the more lumpy stages of the Argentinian race wasn’t enough for the Brit to gain enough time – in fact, he even lost a few head-to-heads there, and the Portuguese made up all the needed time in the Time Trial. In an event where against the clock abilities are even more overwhelmingly important, I can’t do anything else but tip Costa as the outright favorite.
While the 2 of them certainly come here with better chances than most, in the MG everything can happen, so let’s take a look at a complete list of favorites and riders overall.
| Puncheur | HI | TT | AC | RS | Puncheur | HI | TT | AC | RS | | Froome | 82 | 67 | 75 | 73 |  Preidler | 77 | 58 | 69 | 77 | | Costa | 80 | 76 | 72 | 72 | Dieteren | 77 | 58 | 66 | 70 |  Vogt | 80 | 66 | 61 | 71 |  Bibby | 76 | 77 | 71 | 74 |  Schumacher | 79 | 72 | 69 | 70 | McEvoy | 76 | 65 | 79 | 70 |  Sanchez Gil | 78 | 74 | 74 | 77 | Fumeaux | 76 | 65 | 70 | 70 |  Vanendert | 78 | 71 | 72 | 74 | Kump | 76 | 63 | 80 | 73 | | Gilbert | 78 | 70 | 72 | 73 | Honkisz | 76 | 62 | 69 | 71 | | Reichenbach | 78 | 67 | 69 | 69 |  Kadri | 76 | 61 | 78 | 69 | | Zingle | 77 | 68 | 76 | 69 |  Pavarin | 76 | 56 | 76 | 69 |  Paulinho | 77 | 64 | 75 | 72 | Grivko | 75 | 73 | 70 | 73 | | Mudarra | 77 | 62 | 68 | 70 | Yates | 75 | 69 | 75 | 78 |
Well, as you can see, this is not something between Costa and Froome alone. Just look at last year’s PCT dominator and latest Strade Bianche’s winner Sanchez Gil: he top 3’d the overall last year after dropping everyone in the hilly stage, and he’s back for more, just like Bibby is. He dominated the whole thing – and the TT - two years ago, and showed some great form in a race that didn’t suit him as well as this such as Catalunya, where he was 2nd in the GC.
Heck, even Kump is here for Hugo Boss with a free role. He quite likely won’t be the leader of his team, but will have his teammates working hard for him in the sprint stages where he could well gain as much bonus time as he can, to then try to resist in the TTs and the Ardennaise stage to keep a high spot in the general standings. However, if there’s something we’ve learnt from the hilly stage through the years is that it opens huge gaps.
Other tactics will be put up by Strava’s duo of top Belgian puncheurs Vanendert and Gilbert, two riders that are as similar as it gets for a race like this. They don’t lack the skills anywhere, in fact, they’re incredibly complete riders, which is why some tag teaming could be useful when needed: don’t discount them!
Same goes for UBS trio of Schumacher, Reichenbach, Fumeaux, you never know what can happen when a team takes loads of stats to a race like this, it worked fine earlier this year though.
Other threats include lazy Vogt, whose habit is too emulate Jan Ullrich’s Nutella eating habits, and is not even nowhere near as good as him in that, as well as his teammates Paulinho and quick puncheur McEvoy, Weisenhof trio of Zingle, Preidler and Dieteren, and Ferrero’s trio composed of Pavarin, pure puncheur, as well as Grivko and Navardauskas, solid TTists on top of their climbing abilities.
| Time Trialist | TT | RS | HI | AC | Sprinter | SP | AC | RS | HI | | Dillier | 80 | 77 | 63 | 62 |  Stauff | 80 | 81 | 69 | 65 | | Bialoblocki | 79 | 76 | 68 | 71 | Lavoine | 80 | 78 | 64 | 60 | | Goncalves | 78 | 72 | 71 | 65 | Serebriakov | 80 | 77 | 67 | 61 | | Bibby | 77 | 74 | 76 | 71 | Haussler | 80 | 76 | 72 | 70 |  Bodnar | 77 | 72 | 68 | 65 | Kump | 79 | 80 | 73 | 76 |  Navardauskas | 76 | 74 | 74 | 70 | Van der Sande | 79 | 79 | 73 | 70 | | Costa | 76 | 72 | 80 | 72 | Petit | 79 | 78 | 72 | 65 | | Bontenackels | 76 | 71 | 62 | 67 | Aberasturi | 79 | 78 | 71 | 64 | | Gallopin | 74 | 78 | 74 | 73 |  Richeze | 79 | 77 | 67 | 65 | | Sanchez Gil | 74 | 77 | 78 | 74 | Santos | 79 | 75 | 68 | 64 | | Velits | 74 | 67 | 69 | 72 | Sobota | 78 | 78 | 65 | 60 |
Talking about stage hunting, we do have 4 flat stages and 1 flat TT that riders that don’t necessarily can fight for the GC can contest.
As for the sprints, we do have Stauff, Lavoine and Serebriakov standing out. The latter 2 have spent their last 2 seasons in CT, and while the French hasn’t disappointed that much, the Russian decided that he had earned his contract and took another season off – which could change for this race, you never know.
The German, on the other hand, has made a huge leap backwards to CT after being a hugely important part of Pokerstars’ PT epic train, and safe to say, he’s the best fast man in the division as it stands. We talked about Kump before, but I’ll mention him again as he deserves to, he’ll have extra motivation to do well in sprint stages because of his GC chances, that could be quite improved through bonification seconds.
There’s only a TT here but many riders that could contend it. Besides the GC riders, Time Trialists that got sent here include Dillier and Goncalves - oh look yet other 2 great riders UBS sent here, as well as Arrinera’s Poles Bialoblocki and National Champion Bodnar. This also hints towards the fact these riders won’t be there to contend a win at Duo Differdange, clashing race that will be raced right while Stage 5 of this one does.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:36
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Honestly a Top 5 and a stage win is okay for this race, glad my hunch payed off and Lavoine is really is in a field he is supposed to be the favorite. It was either sending Froome here or leave 5 RD's untouched, which of course isn't ideal. Also Roche had more important RD's to fulfill. Come on Lavoine! and Froome just win that stage and make up for your lack of TT skillz
Bonus to have Bialoblocki as a possible leader, but with Costa here that became impossible. Costa will win this, if not daily form favours Bibby!
Really glad that I have a possible stage winner on every stage here and also matt, while this might not be Berner Rundfahrt, I very much enjoyed reading the preview and last part was spot on 
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:42
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go Boss it! Kump and Costa could make this tour a great one for Hugo Boss!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:46
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Wow, only twelve teams on the start list, and that's with a couple of CT-teams... Could be a great race for some teams here, and especially Hugo Boss looks like they'll have some good days. Super strong team.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:49
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We had to wait until March for our first big mistake of the season.  For some reason this is a win goal though, don't really have much hope for that, although Sanchez could get a top-5 and I've been wrong about him before. My money (or lack thereof) is on Costa though, should be a perfect race for him, Bibby should be good too.
Great race choice from Kraftwerk and Ferrero though, they should score well here, especially Stauff.
Thanks for the preview Matt! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Shonak |
Posted on 24-08-2016 19:53
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Tour de France Champion
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If it wasn't for the TT, I'd sent Modolo for the GC here, but alas, we are here for stage wins. Maybe it's Van der Sande's time finally to get one of those. Gilbert and Vanendert definitely had great performance as of late and I hope they improve on that further. The startlist is another nice surprise tho, the less competition the better.
Loved the preview matt, it explodes of enthusiam, it's apparent you are excited for the race after all the flat irish stages you did coverage on
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| knockout |
Posted on 24-08-2016 20:24
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Grand Tour Champion
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I'm just here to see LLS continuing his magic 
One or two stage wins from Kump would be nice as well ...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 24-08-2016 20:49
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Sprinter
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Nice preview! Costa and LLS have to be the favorites here. I've sent a very strong team and we should have a shot at the TT, but I'm not sure how my team will decide leadership in the hills and we haven't had much luck in that terrain so far this year. Either way, I'm glad for the small startlist here as we should walk away with some points.
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| Selwink |
Posted on 24-08-2016 21:03
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Hopefully Kadri or a break can do something for us here, as I've given up on Serebriakov already.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 24-08-2016 21:13
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Looking forward to this race!
A race where we really have alot of potential to score well. The small startlist gives me a good feeling for this one, really could turn out to be a great race for us!
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| Ian Butler |
Posted on 24-08-2016 23:43
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Hmmm hoping for either a Richeze-miracle (has already happened this year) or a Rodas-miracle (is yet to happen this season!) |
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| Selwink |
Posted on 25-08-2016 19:25
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I should give up on Serebriakov more often 
Great teamwork, best sprint train and Serebriakov managed to finish it good enough
Also first win of the season
Thanks for the report Matt
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 25-08-2016 19:48
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I'll take a top 10 thanks Matt and congrats Selwink!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 25-08-2016 21:03
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Forgot to comment earlier it seems. Surprised with the small startlist but certainly works in our favour. Hoping either Grivko or Navardauskas can get top 10, that should be possible.
Good to see Pavarin aggresive, he hadn't shown anything so far. The boni seconds are nice but he can't TT for his life so have little hope there. But going for the KoM jersey is very good plan.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 25-08-2016 21:28
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Decent start here with Kump, happy with that finish from him. Wouldnt mind a train/ a bit more organization in the finale though
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 25-08-2016 21:33
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That was really really awful display here, hope we do get better than this on other flat stages. Bialoblocki could win tomorrow, but a Top 3 would be good enough
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-08-2016 22:33
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Finally Serebyakov!
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| Shonak |
Posted on 26-08-2016 02:06
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Tour de France Champion
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Lol only my guy wasting precious energy kilometers ahead of the final sprint, whatta dumbass. The one time we got favourite position, just my luck  Still okayish sprint by him, finishing 4th. Podium would have been satisfying, this is slightly underwhelming but I take the points of course. Still 2 more chances for Tosh to bounce back.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 26-08-2016 13:29
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Why can't one of the CT TTs be like that? 
great stuff Costa!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-08-2016 13:54
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Costa's race to lose now. Hugo Boss en route to another great race.
Also great to see Würtz with a good ITT, even going into the youth jersey at the moment.
Congrats on a dominant win though, Bushwackers.
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