On first glance I think either allrounders (riders with 2 main stats on similar level) or fighters (high FTR stat) have gone ridiculously much up. Just looking at my own team:
- Becis: 75,50 OVR
which is above puncheurs like Calmejane, Moscon, Tsatevitch, Gallopin
as well as way above sprinters such as Wesley Kreder, Kuboki, Dzamastagic, Roy Jans, Santos, Sbaragli
- Budenieks 75,04 OVR (before training)
I'm not even sure who i want to start comparing him to others
- Sergis: 75,37 OVR
Way too high as well.
First impression is that Mo/Hi riders look way higher than similar strong Mo/Hi/TT guys.
- Marzuki 75,04 OVR
looks too damn high
Definitely seems like there were some artificial stat raisers involved that act completely wild.
Also flat stat seems to be way too underrated for especially puncheurs but also climbers.
TT riders with allround capabilites / hill strengths are way too underrated. Cavagna, Cosnefroy, Kuboki, Bibby, van Zyl, Abreu all go down even further when those combo were already undervalued last season imo
Maybe as I tried to make a quick V2-V3 update by fixing a clear error, I might have done a new one or something unintended. Will look at some of those.
The issues of Gaviria and Verhelst remain in v3, but if results are taken into account, I think this could work. Verhelst isn't even a problem for me, it's just weird how much he goes up when the changes that were mentioned shouldn't affect him.
Obviously, everyone, including myself, will be biased based on how this affects their own team, so it's tough to make clear judgements. I'm going to give it a deep dive when I have more time, and just first reactions for now. In any case, I appreciate you bringing this forward for discussion, though I think final decisions have to rest with admins here due to the biases of managers.
Obviously not thrilled to see AKA going up again. He's already the best OVL sprinters by a full point in CT, yet is only the 8th best sprinter on points. But I think with sprinters it's probably impossible to do anything rational, we'll just have to rely heavily on the performance aspect for wages. Race days are the only real issue with this. Plus, guys like Reinhardt are getting a bump at least from ACC, so while AKA increases, he's no longer 1st.
I also disagree with the pure flat beasts going up so much. They're useful in real PCM, but since we can't set leadout trains ourselves in MG, they're not much more valuable then any other flat domestique even though they're stronger on the flat. I'm not sure if it's raising based on fighter or what.
I will say that it is important to know how much OVL and the wages they bring will conflict with market FA pressures. For instance, a lot of CT sprinters OVL's went up, but unless we follow through with deleting/reducing a lot of the FA's like we discussed, they will all still end up in the market, where a lot of them will be at 50k replacement level, because supply exceeds demand.
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DubbelDekker wrote:
Just to be sure; the new OVL's in this sheet are including a performance modifier based on the current season so far, right?
And is the performance modifier only based on 2020, or do earlier seasons play a role too?
No. That`s 2 different things.
The OVL is without any performance. It just still gets rid of some formulas, which were added back then when still using PCM15, which were adjusted in the last 1-2 years but still not really correct. Plus it adjusts changes from the last OVL updates, which were not accurate or by now are no longer needed as stage design changed.
The performance stuff is for renewals only. If one of your riders heavily under or overperformed, the performance formula will "identify" this and make him ask for more or less than he normally would, which is kind of how renewals should work I guess.
I guess you ask for Malecki.
The increase is due to decent alrounders in general went up in some way, e.g. Van der Poel as well for me. This is due to them hard to get dropped (not only Giro related, but in general), being good on most terrains but have no 78+ stat or something, which avoids them to get a decent overall but their value is a lot higher than many similar riders which then lack in 1 or 2 terrains.
Ah cool, so it still works like before. I misread your sentence starting with "Alongside the performance ratio addition" and thought some performance ratio was added to the OVL calculations.
Haha yeah I have to admit that Malecki's meteoric rise in OVL on these unmaxed stats contributed to abovementioned misunderstanding. It seems a bit excessive at first glance. I'll take a more detailed look at it later.
I do agree that allrounders are strong and deserve a (subtle) OVL increase, but after comparing the stats of multiple allrounders my conclusion is that within this group of riders the impact of the Cobble stat on OVL might currently be a bit too high.
In a season there are many races where it is useful for a rider to have a good combination of Flat, Mountain, Hill, TT/Prl and some Sprint, without excelling in any of those areas. It allows riders to go in breaks, finish the job when they happen to be in the right one and maybe even defend a jersey for some stages despite a prologue or early TT.
Cobble on the other hand only forms a useful combination with those other stats in one race per season: Tour of Northern Europe. Other cobble races do sometimes call for some other main stats (Flat and Sprint in the flat ones and Hill in the hilly ones), but true allrounders are never more than simple domestiques there.
Surname
Fl
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Co
Sp
Acc
Fi
Do
Pr
Ov
Malecki
73
71
74
70
70
74
70
73
71
74
68
72
71
75,76
Kozhatayev
74
77
74
72
71
75
71
70
52
69
62
74
72
75,41
Surname
Fl
Mo
Hi
TT
Sta
Res
Rec
Co
Sp
Acc
Fi
Do
Pr
Ov
Malecki
73
71
74
70
70
74
70
73
71
74
68
72
71
75,76
Gallopin
75
71
74
75
79
78
74
66
70
73
80
70
74
74,11
If we then look at the above three riders we see a pattern emerge. Kozhatayev's allrounder combination of Flat, Mountain (+6!!), Hill and TT/Prl, is significantly stronger. But currently the fact that Malecki has +3 Cobble and a quicker sprint actually gives him the higher OVL.
Gallopin's stats then give some insight in whether it's Cobble or Sprint that is the main culprit.
He has the same Mountain and Hill, better Flat, way better TT, absolutely superior Sta/Res/Rec, almost the same Sprint/Acc and as cherry on the allround attacker cake: +12 Fighter.
Malecki's only advantage that nets him a whopping +1,65 OVL?
Just looking at my own team, I guess it's fair with a bump for Würtz considering his performance. On that note I'm surprised to see Kragh going quite a bit down, though I can see it given that his sprint stat isn't great in itself, but low considering that he's one of my leaders. Feels kind of weird seeing him just 0,2 over Vermote, who's also a curious case with an OVL of 74,17 and only one stat that's 75 or more (flat, 75).
One reason to share this OVL file was too have more eyes on more riders as I can't check for all those, in especially lower ones as good as needed.
I must admit that while the alrounder formula worked here and there, riders that weren't really meant to be impacted were and some riders that weren't impacted now dropped below some allrounders as Dubbledekker pointed out.
For now I plan to actually get rid of the formula addition for allrounders and more carefully check, who is impacted and how to potentially get it better.
The reasoning was easy I guess. Riders with let's say a start line of 72 in all stats probably are expected to be around 72 OVL while a rider with a lot more mixed stats, let's say 75mo, 70hi, 50sp, 73acc, 73tt, 60cob might be as well around 72 due to the better to stat.
The issue is that while second rider is likely to be a pure helper, first rider actually is hard to drop and had a lot of value. Malecki, Van Der Poel, Cavagna are examples of very solid performance regularly without actually being top class in any stat. Which resulted in an attempt to give clear allrounders a bit of an OVL increase.
Though as I started with lots of OVL work several weeks ago when having more time, several things are likely more accurate than the alrounder thing which I only added this week, when being a lot more busy and apparently couldn't double and triple check enough, which is why this thread here helped to do so as well.
I will leave this part out as said and try to find a different way how to set the formula up.
Problem with allrounders is, that their actual stats underrate their OVL which results in cheap wages and many race days. Even the performance ratio could only change first and likely in combination would still lead to big steals there.
@roturn Thanks for the clarification on MO/HI guys and the V3/4 fix to make Bazhkou and Van Niekerk (among others I guess ) back to normal
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- Allrounders got changed again.
- Mid level Puncheurs (~77-80) got highered a bit, kind of back to their old stats as they dropped too much (e.g. Gastauer, Juuö-Jensen, Moscon, Waeytens...many still drop in total but less strong than in V4 and earlier)
- Riders such as Vermote, who were mentioned here already, are still climbing a bit as the new way of calculating specific rider types are higher in general, but less strong now)
Are those OVL adaptations based on what we know about PCM18, or do we have some knowledge about PCM20 mechanics that are considered here as well?
Plus, for the next season(s), it would be great to have the new OVL formulas before deciding on stat gains - but that's a detail, as we could potentially only "save" a few RDs (and Euros) with this knowledge.
Fabianski wrote:
Are those OVL adaptations based on what we know about PCM18, or do we have some knowledge about PCM20 mechanics that are considered here as well?
Plus, for the next season(s), it would be great to have the new OVL formulas before deciding on stat gains - but that's a detail, as we could potentially only "save" a few RDs (and Euros) with this knowledge.
It`s a lot what is fixed still going back to PCM15 as also something that were adjusted before for PCM18, which was too extreme and now is going back a bit as also balancing the terrains in general, no matter the game version, e.g. time trialists. Obviously there is still something based from the change PCM15 to PCM18. But PCM20 likely is a lot closer to PCM18 than to PCM15 I am sure of.
Ideally I agree to have this as soon as possible but this would mean, I have already lots of time early/mid season. In more recent years it was all done during the off season, now it was already posted before the offseason, yes while stat gains are out already, but it`s impossible to get it done all perfectly timed unfortunately.
Generally speaking the new OVL in V5 makes more sense to me than the old OVL, so it's definitely a good improvement.
Looking at my own team the changes seem fair now. Kangert got hit with a hefty +1.45, but I think he actually deserves that. The only two changes that I have some small doubts about are Potts +0.69 and Bibby -1.08
Reinhardt gets +1.16 and now is the division's top sprinter - which I'm obviously fine with, as it reflects the results. Scully gets +0.74, which I think is too much. According to OVL, he should now be CT's 3rd best sprinter, which was clearly not the case this season. But well, if we're talking outliers, we can't look past AKA anyway...
I guess what made them gain that much is their high Acc. And apparently, this also holds for puncheurs - and here I'm not sure at all if it's correct. Meyer would now be CT's second strongest puncheur, with Moscon down to 4th, behind CJJ as well. While both are certainly decent riders, Moscon's higher Mo and Res should put him above this duo, despite his clearly lower Acc. At least he outscored them this year so far. In general, I see that riders with <75 Acc lost some OVL, while the others went up (there are exceptions ofc).
Honestly, as much as I like it from a managerial point of view, I don't think Moscon going down in OVL is really correct.
On the other hand, Pernsteiner gets quite heavily "punished", and gets +0.62 - something I can hardly explain. He's one of those low Acc exceptions who still got an increase - on the other hand, e.g. Dall'Oste, who in my opinion is a stronger rider, got -0.48 and now is below Pernsteiner. It's even harder to explain compared with Hoelgaard, who has 1 less in Mo, but is way better on the flat and has slightly stronger Res and Acc - but now is 0.52 weaker than Pernie. I guess that's one of those cases where one single stat point can make quite a difference.
What's almost a bit funny is the fact that Basso, my best allrounder, would be the one losing second-most OVL points with the new formula - when I thought that the well-balanced riders should actually rather be increased. But I guess every manager finds some cases where he likes the outcome, and some where he doesn't (e.g. Lienhard gaining +0.54, while he hasn't worked well at all this season).
Anyway, thanks for trying to optimize that formula, and thanks for all the work you are doing! Considering timing, I'm totally aware we can't wait to know every detail before moving on, so no worries on that!
This was discussed way back but revisiting it as the season draws to a close. I don't think sprinters with a SP over 76 (77+) should be draftable in the CT draft,
There remains an oversupply of sprinters and I think the more sprinters there are the worse the AI works and the more likely for random people to get screwed. I think it is fine if you want to pay the 50k minimum to play the sprint lottery but you shouldn't be able to do it for free. At 76 speed you can still pick up a passable lead out rider.
Looking at stats through update 5, 4 of the top 5 scorers in the draft were sprinters and they account for just under 50% of all the points scored by the draft riders.
(Congrats by the way to Didier Munyaneza who somehow scored 49 points, it is that kind of overperformance that the CT draft should be limited to)
Would be fine extending this to any prime stat over 77 but that would still almost entirely exclude sprinters which is more evidence of why we need this rule.
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
This was discussed way back but revisiting it as the season draws to a close. I don't think sprinters with a SP over 76 (77+) should be draftable in the CT draft,
There remains an oversupply of sprinters and I think the more sprinters there are the worse the AI works and the more likely for random people to get screwed. I think it is fine if you want to pay the 50k minimum to play the sprint lottery but you shouldn't be able to do it for free. At 76 speed you can still pick up a passable lead out rider.
Looking at stats through update 5, 4 of the top 5 scorers in the draft were sprinters and they account for just under 50% of all the points scored by the draft riders.
(Congrats by the way to Didier Munyaneza who somehow scored 49 points, it is that kind of overperformance that the CT draft should be limited to)
Would be fine extending this to any prime stat over 77 but that would still almost entirely exclude sprinters which is more evidence of why we need this rule.
Points through Ct #5 by drafted riders.
Spoiler
Rider
Pts
Igor Boev
113
Ismael Kip
109
Maris Bogdanovics
65
Didier Munyaneza
49
Maciej Ulanowski
49
Aleksandar Flügel
36
Erick Rowsell
31
Sirak Tesfom
26
Andrea Pasqualon
24
Meron Amanuel
22
Darren Young
22
Martin Mahdar
22
Samuel Coronel
19
Gyasi Sulvaran
15
Irakli Bablidze
14
Mihran Avetisyan
12
Michel Kreder
12
Steven Kalf
11
Sandis Eislers
10
Zhihui Jiang
9
Nathan Wilson
9
Nico Brüngger
8
Pedro Merino Criado
6
Michael Schwarzmann
5
Damien Gaudin
4
Cameron Scott
3
Sean Hahessy
2
Rasmus Mygind
2
Clement Lhotellerie
2
Mohammad Ganjkhanlou
2
Bruno Silva
2
Hakon Frengstad Berger
1
Pier-Andre Cote
0
Andre Sotberg
0
Magnus Bak Klaris
0
Simone Consonni
0
Adrien Niyonshuti
0
Geoffrey Curran
0
Pavel Kelemen
0
Andre Alexander Gonzales
0
I honestly don't see the issue. The draft gives room for managers to make the decisions that they want to make, some use it to sign a talent for free some use it to round out support at some use it to grab a sprinter, that might score well and might not score well, I dont see a reason to change it.
Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
This was discussed way back but revisiting it as the season draws to a close. I don't think sprinters with a SP over 76 (77+) should be draftable in the CT draft,
There remains an oversupply of sprinters and I think the more sprinters there are the worse the AI works and the more likely for random people to get screwed. I think it is fine if you want to pay the 50k minimum to play the sprint lottery but you shouldn't be able to do it for free. At 76 speed you can still pick up a passable lead out rider.
Looking at stats through update 5, 4 of the top 5 scorers in the draft were sprinters and they account for just under 50% of all the points scored by the draft riders.
(Congrats by the way to Didier Munyaneza who somehow scored 49 points, it is that kind of overperformance that the CT draft should be limited to)
Would be fine extending this to any prime stat over 77 but that would still almost entirely exclude sprinters which is more evidence of why we need this rule.
Points through Ct #5 by drafted riders.
Spoiler
Rider
Pts
Igor Boev
113
Ismael Kip
109
Maris Bogdanovics
65
Didier Munyaneza
49
Maciej Ulanowski
49
Aleksandar Flügel
36
Erick Rowsell
31
Sirak Tesfom
26
Andrea Pasqualon
24
Meron Amanuel
22
Darren Young
22
Martin Mahdar
22
Samuel Coronel
19
Gyasi Sulvaran
15
Irakli Bablidze
14
Mihran Avetisyan
12
Michel Kreder
12
Steven Kalf
11
Sandis Eislers
10
Zhihui Jiang
9
Nathan Wilson
9
Nico Brüngger
8
Pedro Merino Criado
6
Michael Schwarzmann
5
Damien Gaudin
4
Cameron Scott
3
Sean Hahessy
2
Rasmus Mygind
2
Clement Lhotellerie
2
Mohammad Ganjkhanlou
2
Bruno Silva
2
Hakon Frengstad Berger
1
Pier-Andre Cote
0
Andre Sotberg
0
Magnus Bak Klaris
0
Simone Consonni
0
Adrien Niyonshuti
0
Geoffrey Curran
0
Pavel Kelemen
0
Andre Alexander Gonzales
0
I am 100% in favor of this.
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) back to normal 
