Tour of Norway Discussion
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Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 09-04-2020 01:15
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3259
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Tour of Norway
The PTHC Tour of Norway returns for its 7th edition. After some varied parcours it settled into its current 5-stage TT/hill mix format in 2017. The past two years it has been finely balanced between the puncheurs and the TT men. This year stage 4 gets some additional climbing and stage 5 adds 30 km and some more hills, moving it from a flat to hill classification. Seeing this shift managers of the big boys from the Ardennes have smelled blood and we have AGR winner Ponzi and LBL/FW double winner Bakelants as well as one of their biggest rivals in Sagan. Ironically, another Ardennes big dog, EBH, who is both the defending Tour of Norway champion and a Norwegian cycling god, is not on the start list.
Perhaps the changing parcours also explains why 2017 champion and 2018 runner up Coppel and 2016 champion Fiedler both skip the race as does Jonas Ahlstrand who has won 6 stages in the last 4 years and twice taken the points jersey.
The question is whether the shift in parcours is enough to move the race in the favor of the punchier riders. Stage 4 features some relatively long climbs so the mountain stat may also play a role. There are 11 80+ Hill riders in the field
| FL | MT | HI | TT | RS | AC | Ponzi | 76 | 73 | 84 | 68 | 72 | 80 | Bakelants | 71 | 74 | 83 | 66 | 77 | 77 | Claeys | 73 | 67 | 83 | 64 | 68 | 73 | Sagan | 72 | 74 | 83 | 68 | 74 | 76 | Izagirre | 71 | 74 | 81 | 77 | 72 | 64 | McCarthy | 70 | 67 | 81 | 58 | 75 | 74 | Ulissi | 76 | 66 | 80 | 62 | 71 | 75 | Gautier | 72 | 68 | 80 | 64 | 72 | 77 | Vakoc | 71 | 71 | 80 | 69 | 71 | 74 | Boswell | 70 | 71 | 80 | 67 | 73 | 76 | Jensen | 71 | 70 | 80 | 67 | 73 | 76 |
Izagirre, coming from the PCT level, immediately catches the eye with a TT significantly better than any of his rivals as well as one of the strongest MT stats. His weak AC might be an issue but he should get into the late stages with a significant cushion so some small time losses won’t matter.
Putting him aside Ponzi, Bakelants and Sagan all stand out with strong HI, solid MT and reasonable TT stats. It seems likely the rest of the riders on this list will be fighting for top 5s, rather than a podium, barring a daring escape. Flat stat is shown because this reporter is obsessed with it and Stage 1 features a lumpy course where the pack could split and one or two unprepared GC men could find themselves in a hole. Luckily, none of the contenders are too weak here.
But what if the Ardennes specialists have it wrong and the TT is still enough to win the race? Below are the TT guys who have a better TT than Izaguirre and also a hill value of at least 75.
Oops nobody meets that criteria.
If we go to 72 hill we get Oliveira (73 HI) and Fraile (72). Fraile finished 4th in 2018. Unless the hilly stages are totally non-selective it seems unlikely that any of the top TT guys are going to beat Izagirre. So we will consign them to the stage analysis below.
The Stages
Stage 1 features a 188 km trek from Sandefjord to Tønsberg, with a sprint finish likely. But with multiple bumps along the way expect a mad dash for the line rather than a structured sprint with pretty lead outs.
There are 13 80+ sprinters in the field:
| FL | RS | SP | AC | Ewan | 75 | 71 | 83 | 81 | Reinhardt | 71 | 66 | 79 | 84 | Guardini | 72 | 69 | 80 | 82 | Appollonio | 74 | 66 | 81 | 78 | Samolenkov | 74 | 71 | 80 | 79 | Keukeleire | 72 | 68 | 80 | 79 | Goss | 73 | 70 | 81 | 77 | Van der Sande | 75 | 73 | 79 | 79 | Vantomme | 72 | 63 | 81 | 76 | Soupe | 72 | 69 | 79 | 77 | Vanderaerden | 72 | 65 | 79 | 75 | Van Heerden | 72 | 66 | 81 | 72 | Rowe | 72 | 58 | 80 | 70 |
Ewan has a clear advantage in the sprint stat and with strong flat and resistance as well as a good hill stat he seems like the clear favorite. In addition he brings a strong lead out with Alaphilippe as well as Keukeleire, who makes it onto the list of top sprinters above. The rest seem relatively evenly matched except Vantomme and Rowe with the weak resistance.
Stage 2 offers up a more routine sprint stage at just 150 km from Oslo to Drammen. There are still some bumps but it should offer more chance for sprint trains to form. Ewan’s strong Podium Ambition lead out stands out but Appollonio and Vantomme both bring lead out riders in Kvist and Avila, respectively. Perhaps this is the stage for one of them to pull off a victory.
Stage 3, the hump stage, brings the pivotal time trial – 30 pan flat kms in Hokksund. Clearly a number of riders are targeting this stage as a the peloton features 13 quality TT specialists.
| FL | HI | TT | PR | RS | Zmorka | 74 | 66 | 82 | 82 | 75 | Sergent | 79 | 69 | 80 | 80 | 74 | Howson | 71 | 65 | 80 | 80 | 74 | Yatsevich | 70 | 68 | 80 | 80 | 81 | Malori | 78 | 68 | 79 | 79 | 73 | Fraile | 69 | 72 | 79 | 79 | 76 | Goldstein | 74 | 61 | 79 | 79 | 72 | Cataford | 74 | 70 | 79 | 79 | 75 | Hepburn | 71 | 66 | 79 | 79 | 77 | Viviani | 78 | 66 | 79 | 79 | 77 | Haugard | 72 | 60 | 79 | 79 | 77 | Vorobev | 75 | 65 | 79 | 78 | 71 | Dal Col | 71 | 64 | 79 | 78 | 72 |
Since this seems like a pure test of TT skills Zmorka is the clear favorite, while Haugard carries the home nation’s hopes for a stage win. Sergent, Malori and Viviani are all strong roulers who will also be looking to do some damage in Stage 1.
Stage 4 is the key stage for the puncheurs where we expect our GC favorites to come to the front. Most will have significant TT losses to make up so it should be the recipe for an exciting stage. The question is will it be selective enough for them to shake off the TT/HI riders like Izagirre. In addition to the Spaniard some others with hopes to hold on to the top puncheurs in Stage 4 and snatch the leaders jersey include:
| FL | MT | HI | TT | RS | Kangert | 75 | 75 | 77 | 77 | 75 | Bibby | 72 | 76 | 75 | 76 | 73 | Rosskopf | 73 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 71 | Bazhkou | 71 | 69 | 75 | 76 | 75 | Sepulveda | 70 | 75 | 77 | 75 | 73 |
Gazelle with two riders on this list will have multiple tactical cards to play including Kangert who has the the best all around skill set after Izagirre
Stage 4 has a hilltop finish and longer climbs but the revamped Stage 5 gives the punchy riders another opportunity with multiple short sharp climbs over 198 km. Whichever rider holds yellow will need a strong team to control the race. Perhaps because the Vuelta conflict none of Ponzi, Bakelants or Sagan brings a particularly deep team. Arguably, the PCT Iberia – Team Degenkolb riders supporting Izagirre make for a better supporting cast. Gougeard is a strong lieutenant and Brockhoff and Jans are tough all-rounders.
Gazelle with their multiple GC options will also be a threat while Sepulveda and ISA-Hexacta bring a dangerous group with the 3 additional punchy riders in Boily, Rodriguez Galindo and Zakarin.
Overall though, with his all around skills and solid team Jon Izaguirre must be the favorite for the 2019 edition of the Tour of Norway.
Full Start List
Spoiler Team | Last name | First name | Campari/Asahi development | Rocchetti | Federico | Campari/Asahi development | Jung | Ha Jeon | Campari/Asahi development | Koishi | Yuma | Campari/Asahi development | Fiorelli | Filippo | Campari/Asahi development | Matsumoto | Yosukue | Campari/Asahi development | Yamamoto | Masaki | Campari/Asahi development | Christian | Mark | Campari/Asahi development | Pichon | Laurent | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Juul-Jensen | Christopher | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Aranburu | Alex | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Appollonio | Davide | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Haas | Nathan | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Hansen | Jesper | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Sinkeldam | Ramon | Carlsberg - Danske bank | Steensen | Andre | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Kvist | Thomas Vedel | cycleYorkshire | Koren | Kristjan | cycleYorkshire | Bellis | Jonathan | cycleYorkshire | Skaarseth | Anders | cycleYorkshire | Rowe | Matt | cycleYorkshire | Cullaigh | Gabriel | cycleYorkshire | Fenn | Andrew | cycleYorkshire | Redecker | Heiko | cycleYorkshire | Thwaites | Scott | Desigual | Kozhatayev | Bakhtiyar | Desigual | Jones | Carter | Desigual | Fraile | Omar | Desigual | Yechezkel | Aviv | Desigual | Nazaret | Magno | Desigual | Tsatevich | Alexey | eBuddy | Van der Kooij | Bas | eBuddy | Howson | Damien | eBuddy | Lampaert | Yves | eBuddy | Ariesen | Tim | eBuddy | Meijers | Jeroen | eBuddy | Boswell | Ian | eBuddy | Roosen | Timo | eBuddy | Goldstein | Omer | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Eliad | Daniel | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Guardini | Andrea | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Jallays | Welle | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Rumac | Josip | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Goldstein | Roy | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Ponzi | Simone | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Kalf | Steven | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Bostner | Jaka | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Menten | Milan | Farfetch Pro Cycling | De Bod | Stefan | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Min | Kyeng Ho | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Atkins | Josh | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Krigbaum | Mathias | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Van der Sande | Tosh | Farfetch Pro Cycling | McCarthy | Jay | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Zhupa | Eugert | Gazelle | Bibby | Ian | Gazelle | Boaro | Manuele | Gazelle | Senyenov | Roman | Gazelle | Kangert | Tanel | Gazelle | Fejes | Gabor | Gazelle | Konrad | Patrick | Gazelle | Hofland | Moreno | Gazelle | De Gendt | Thomas | Generali | Ghyselinck | Jan | Generali | Ulissi | Diego | Generali | Oliveira | Nelson | Generali | Rosskopf | Joey | Generali | Kung | Stefan | Generali | Dees | Tim | Generali | Viviani | Elia | Generali | Sterbini | Luca | Grieg - Maersk | Ringheim | Jo Kogstad | Grieg - Maersk | Nardin | Thiago Duarte | Grieg - Maersk | Laengen | Vegard Stake | Grieg - Maersk | Moulingui | Clenne Morvan | Grieg - Maersk | Vassdal | Ken Sebastian | Grieg - Maersk | Andersen | Soren Kragh | Grieg - Maersk | Jansen | Amund Grondahl | Grieg - Maersk | Korsaeth | Truls Engen | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Cosnefroy | Benoit | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Soler | Marc | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Izagirre | Ion | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Gougeard | Alexis | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Brockhoff | Jan | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Jans | Roy | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Barthe | Cyril | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | Nych | Artem | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Ji | Cheng | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Luchshenko | Sergey | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Okbamariam | Tesfom | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Bakelants | Jan | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Goss | Matthew | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | De Decker | Alfdan | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Van Avermaet | Greg | ISA - Hexacta | De Luna | Flavio | ISA - Hexacta | Sepulveda | Eduardo | ISA - Hexacta | Feng | Chun Kai | ISA - Hexacta | Boily | David | ISA - Hexacta | Rodriguez Galindo | Michael | ISA - Hexacta | Zakarin | Ilnur | ISA - Hexacta | Vandousselaere | Sven | ISA - Hexacta | Contreras | Emiliano | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Brozyna | Piotr | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Grippo | Chiaffredo | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Vakoc | Petr | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Barbin | Enrico | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Gradek | Kamil | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Drucker | Jempy | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Marczynski | Tomasz | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Tewelde | Jani | Minions | Hodeg | Alvaro | Minions | Avila | Edwin | Minions | Selander | Bjorn | Minions | Vantomme | Maxime | Minions | Janse van Rensburg | Reinhardt | Minions | Kiflay | Metkel | Minions | Claeys | Dimitri | Minions | Bru | Fulgencio | Moser - Sygic | Polnicky | Jiri | Moser - Sygic | Marycz | Jaroslaw | Moser - Sygic | Boros | Michael | Moser - Sygic | Baska | Erik | Moser - Sygic | Soupe | Geoffrey | Moser - Sygic | Sagan | Peter | Moser - Sygic | Prado | Ignacio Jesus | Moser - Sygic | Turek | Daniel | Podium Ambition | Quaade | Rasmus | Podium Ambition | Sergent | Jesse | Podium Ambition | Postlberger | Lukas | Podium Ambition | Cataford | Alexandor | Podium Ambition | Hepburn | Michael | Podium Ambition | Alaphilippe | Julian | Podium Ambition | Ewan | Caleb | Podium Ambition | Keukeleire | Jens | Repsol - Netflix | Teggart | Matthew | Repsol - Netflix | Serrano | Rafael | Repsol - Netflix | Dunbar | Eddie | Repsol - Netflix | Castroviejo | Jonathan | Repsol - Netflix | Basso | Leonardo | Repsol - Netflix | Novak | Jakub | Repsol - Netflix | Herrada | Jesus | Repsol - Netflix | Zmorka | Marlen | Swisslion Cycling Team | Kasa | Gabor | Swisslion Cycling Team | Penko | Izidor | Swisslion Cycling Team | Martinez | Daniel Felipe | Swisslion Cycling Team | Bilbao | Pello | Swisslion Cycling Team | Petrovski | Stefan | Swisslion Cycling Team | Pibernik | Luka | Swisslion Cycling Team | Seibeb | Costa | Swisslion Cycling Team | Poljanec | Miha | Team Tinkoff | Malori | Adrian | Team Tinkoff | Vorobev | Anton | Team Tinkoff | Van Heerden | Juan | Team Tinkoff | Dal Col | Andrea | Team Tinkoff | Chernetskiy | Sergey | Team Tinkoff | Trakhov | Dmitry | Team Tinkoff | Samolenkov | Artem | Team Tinkoff | Yatsevich | Kiril | Team UBS | Grigrian | Artur | Team UBS | Müller | Patrick | Team UBS | Fuchs | Dominik | Team UBS | Schäppi | Martin | Team UBS | Reichenbach | Sebastien | Team UBS | Badilatti | Matteo | Team UBS | Reinhardt | Theo | Team UBS | Fumeaux | Jonathan | Valio - Viking Genetics | Nepomnyachsniy | Yevgeni | Valio - Viking Genetics | Blums | Martins | Valio - Viking Genetics | Gautier | Cyril | Valio - Viking Genetics | Helme | Sasu | Valio - Viking Genetics | Gebremedhin | Awet | Valio - Viking Genetics | Kanerva | Joni | Valio - Viking Genetics | Paajanen | Paavo | Valio - Viking Genetics | Vanderaerden | Michael | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Eriksson | Lucas | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Campenaerts | Victor | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Halvorsen | Kristoffer | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Blikra | Havard | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Tiller | Rasmus | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Tanfield | Harry | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Jensen | Kristian Haugaard | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Haugard | Phan Age | Xero Racing | de Kleijn | Arvid | Xero Racing | Van Niekerk | Morne | Xero Racing | Kennett | Dylan | Xero Racing | Bazhkou | Stanislau | Xero Racing | Areruya | Joseph | Xero Racing | Dyrnes | Kristian | Xero Racing | Bester | Shaun Nick | Xero Racing | Schomber | Nils |
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
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jandal7 |
Posted on 09-04-2020 01:49
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
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Bazhkou hasn't done anything yet, this would be a hell of a race to turn that around in He did very well last year iirc but still waiting for him to click with PCM18. Dyrnes in some breaks would be nice to look for a stage win but I fear he'll be our leader and come somewhere in the 30s
Thanks for the preview Ulrich!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2
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DubbelDekker |
Posted on 09-04-2020 08:38
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
Joined: 20-04-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Exciting tour! Of course we hope Kangert and Bibby will manage to hold on to the elite puncheurs and score big through their TT skills. But they might also get obliterated in stages 4 and 5.
Kangert has been in bad form all season, so fingers crossed.
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Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-04-2020 10:33
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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Not looking forward to the TT, that's where Claeys will lose big time, but I hope he can conquer the hilly stages
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Tamijo |
Posted on 09-04-2020 11:25
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
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Every time our jersey make it to a screenshot here, it will be a good day
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tastasol |
Posted on 09-04-2020 11:50
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
Joined: 11-09-2010
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Would have liked to have a stronger team in our home race, but had to place a rider like Wurtz in the Vuelta for experience. Still, we have the mighty Stake Laengen. A repeat from his previous race in Sweden would be great, though I guess top 20 is a more realistic hope. Looking forward to the race!
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TheManxMissile |
Posted on 09-04-2020 13:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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This is pretty much an all-in squad for this race, despite having no punchuers to capitalise in the final two days.
Pocket Rocket has to win a stage, he has a clear gap over the rest as well as a proper lead out in Julian and Kek (backed up with all those flat powers in the TT'ers i brought). Anything else is just a failure of PCM at a basic level!
Then stacked up the trialists to target stage three. Can't match Zmorka but we should be right in the chase for a podium place there, and a few guys into the Top10.
Don't sleep on AC, he'll TT well and has proven to be surprisingly resiliant on climbs, could slip himself into a weirdly good GC position for a non-climber. Maybe after losing time in the TT we can get Julian attacking on those final two days, especially the finish of Stage 5 would suit the Frenchman.
Feeling good about this one having seen the startlist
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-04-2020 15:37
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Like usual, we are way below the level of competition.
We shouldn't have a brought a puncheur here. Warbasse might have done better with all the "mountains." Juul-Jensen will be useless like all year.
Appo will also struggle. The fact that we have one of the better sprint trains is actually a curse in PCM 18. It means he'll definitely go too early and end up 14th, cause for some reason that's just how it works.
Steensen likewise will never do okay in hills again thanks to his mountain, and there are way better time trialists than him, so he means nothing.
This isn't even a good dev race for us, with only Aranburu here, and besides that a bunch of depth domestiques that won't do anything but maybe get dropped early from breaks.
Gonna be an embarrassing Scandinavian trip this year.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-04-2020 02:53
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Can't draw it up any better. Appo launches with perfect position and less than a km to go, and then cracks and falls out of the top 5. I'd blame it on him missing the split, which also seems to be a strangely common occurrence lately, but the fact is, this would have happened anyway. He goes early every single damn time. I guess I missed the DB update where his flat was decreased to 55.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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Ad Bot |
Posted on 22-11-2024 01:33
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jandal7 |
Posted on 10-04-2020 07:04
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Tosh! So happy for him, congrats jph
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2
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DubbelDekker |
Posted on 10-04-2020 07:52
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2633
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Imagine having Ponzi as your leadout
Congrats jph!
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tastasol |
Posted on 10-04-2020 09:00
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2889
Joined: 11-09-2010
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More or less as expected. Good that we tried to get in the break. Without a sprinter a great result would always be hard, but at least good to see a couple of them well up amongst the first behind the sprinters. Congrats Jph!
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Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-04-2020 10:29
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
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Vantomme going backwards seems to be the norm rather than the exception
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TheManxMissile |
Posted on 10-04-2020 11:01
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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Thank f*ck i commited to a Sprint based team for the PCM with, and i quote a lot of managers, "the best AI yet in PCM". No way having clearly the best sprinter with quality leadout could backfire there.
*checks result*
Ah yes, there we go. Just as i expected, f*cking useless game I will stilll buy any unwanted sprinters in the off-season because i'm so far down this hole i can only keep going in hopes of breaking the game entirely by owning the entire sprint field in a race!
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Tamijo |
Posted on 10-04-2020 11:44
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
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Perfect start for the Campari boys. Great day one, lets keep it up.
Congrats to Van der Sande and thanks for another quality report.
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beagle |
Posted on 10-04-2020 12:57
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
Joined: 06-10-2007
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With Degenkolb failing everywhere he participates, Izagirre remains our only hope to not relegate. C'mon Ion, you can save the team!
(Top 10 goal here iirc)
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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baseballlover312 |
Posted on 11-04-2020 04:15
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Is Appo going early hardcoded into the DB? This isn't a joke anymore, this is insane.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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OlegTinkov |
Posted on 11-04-2020 05:42
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2666
Joined: 31-12-2007
PCM$: 450.00
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Ok flat stages done, let's get this race started!
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roturn |
Posted on 11-04-2020 07:24
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Team Manager
Posts: 22246
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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TheManxMissile wrote:
Thank f*ck i commited to a Sprint based team for the PCM with, and i quote a lot of managers, "the best AI yet in PCM". No way having clearly the best sprinter with quality leadout could backfire there.
*checks result*
Ah yes, there we go. Just as i expected, f*cking useless game I will stilll buy any unwanted sprinters in the off-season because i'm so far down this hole i can only keep going in hopes of breaking the game entirely by owning the entire sprint field in a race!
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Tamijo |
Posted on 11-04-2020 08:47
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
PCM$: 599.00
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Congrats to ManxMissile, glad so see that it is not all bad.
Thanks for another quality report.
Regarding Campari, still all over the place with a developing squad, could not possibly expect more than we are able to do here.
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