In my eyes quadsas is being offered up by the Mafia. He is making a lot of noice, arguing and calling people stupid and so on. It's a great tactic by the Mafia, since they are 3 this time around. They offer up 1, and then the other 2 can sit back or at least 1 can argue with him, or vote for him in a lynching. Making it very hard for us to connect the remaning mafia members to him. Then, when he is gone. It's like a bomb went off and we have to start over again. But then, with less townies versus 2 mobsters.
We saw that last game, when a mobster got lynched, and another mobster voted as the second guy in on the vote.
That is also the reason for my lynch vote on quadsas. If he then turns out to be a mobster, we should also look into who voted for him as a potential mafia member.
If he turns out to be pro-town, we at least got rid of a guy who is more hung up on calling other players stupid rather then having a civilized discussion.
imagine doing this:
starting the day by voting someone cause it looks like you have an excuse to, and then realising that that's not going to fly and start making shit up. thats not how you buss people. if youre all so hellbent on me being mafia, then killing me is the wrong play instead of finding other two. but that would be too smart I guess
I'm sorry about my lack of recent activity, I had a virus and wasn't able to use a computer without a bad headache, so other than a quick stop to let Knockout know what was up I've been offline.
Just getting over it now but will wait until I have a clearer head tomrrow morning (aussie time) to make a proper post relevant to the game.
In my eyes quadsas is being offered up by the Mafia. He is making a lot of noice, arguing and calling people stupid and so on. It's a great tactic by the Mafia, since they are 3 this time around. They offer up 1, and then the other 2 can sit back or at least 1 can argue with him, or vote for him in a lynching. Making it very hard for us to connect the remaning mafia members to him. Then, when he is gone. It's like a bomb went off and we have to start over again. But then, with less townies versus 2 mobsters.
We saw that last game, when a mobster got lynched, and another mobster voted as the second guy in on the vote.
That is also the reason for my lynch vote on quadsas. If he then turns out to be a mobster, we should also look into who voted for him as a potential mafia member.
If he turns out to be pro-town, we at least got rid of a guy who is more hung up on calling other players stupid rather then having a civilized discussion.
imagine doing this:
starting the day by voting someone cause it looks like you have an excuse to, and then realising that that's not going to fly and start making shit up. thats not how you buss people. if youre all so hellbent on me being mafia, then killing me is the wrong play instead of finding other two. but that would be too smart I guess
You are a funny guy, considering i don't need any sort of exuse to do so. I've given a reason based on experience. And you keep going down the same road with everybody, so if you truely play to win, your playing in a very dumb way. Stupid.
time to write down my first thoughts I guess. I'm back home now from the German junior chess Championships (as I stated before), so I finally find the time to talk about what's happened so far after re-reading everything. Still a bit dizzy though as we had a great party yesterday following a total of 5 medals for my delegation, but the lack of sleep shouldn't harm my post.
First of all I feel like I should pick up the "point" quasdas made and also Sammy referred to later on: Yes, I have been online after posting in here the last time. However, this was for a reason you all hopefully like, and this is our 3rd update for the PCM.daily 2019 db, which I needed to write a couple of organisational PMs for in here. While I don't like having been passive here, there was just more important stuff to do for me (on-daily and especially off-daily). I hope you can understand this decision.
Secondly I'd like to talk about quasdas. He surely is the player that eats the most attention into himself. You may disagree, but I like his moves so far. While there are some posts of him being completely bullshit, like #221 on hillis, he surely is a driving factor of the discussion. Whether that may be believed to be in good intentions, as sammy or myself stated earlier, or in bad intentions, as f.e. df_trek, jseadog or bbl have leant towards, that's written in the stars. What I know about him is that he's got a very explosive, confident and exaggorative character, and in my opinion that translated into this game in line with that so far. From my experiences with him as in man-game, stat discussions or cycling posts I can imagine him just playing normal. I do believe he is a townie at this point, but I won't forget the what knockout called "red flags" that have been the f.e. inherently stupid idea of asking the detective to reveal himself on the first day. And, as you may find out in the next parts, my gut feeling goes against my analysis of actions until now.
Thirdly I'd like to talk about the day lynch. Seriously, when I was re-reading the stuff a couple of minutes ago I was like how the f*** did marco get lynched. That was mainly because my last status was him being not in any discussions at all. It all started of with ryant claiming to be the politician, claiming "but for now I'll lynch Marcovdw, at best we kill a mafia member, worst its just town". His phrasing really makes me wonder what on earth was he thinking, because any special role should claim that he is a normal townie on the first day, including the politician imo. Quasdas jumping the train, "exposing his posts" and lateron beefing marco for defending hillis, while marco stated that he did not defend hillis as a person but played against the idea of killing the most quiet, in which I agree with Marco. From then on it's basically quasdas and ryant pushing everybody on the marcovdw lynch train.
You wonder why Marco was accused for the first time anyway. In my opinion the type of play that makes sense the most is because people targeted in the current discussions were (at least partly) mafia members. Therefore I raise questions first and formost to ryant. Please elaborate more on why you chose Marco and why you didn't switch your vote in the discussion. Also: Who did he possibly defend? Looking at the state of the art it was quasdas (3) and hillis (2) with more that one votes.This is an overview right before stuff happened (missing my vote on trekbmc though). We should keep those two cases in mind, especially if ryant turns out to be mafia.
Talking about the lynch train, it was sammyt93 finally deciding "pro quasdas" and "against marcovdw" in an almost decicive move in post #178. This is another move we should really think about twice. The persons who turned around the voting on marco, for no objective reason at all, lead my list now.
Fourthly I'd like to talk about jandal being lynched. Let's think about why somebody would do that:
From then on jandal7 got very inactive. He earlier claimed however that the discussion would've been in the middle of the night for him when the ultimate decisions would come. This took him out in the crunch time.
To conclude: I hate jandal being killed, as he seemed to be most valuable on the first day. A little bit like the sound of sanity after some wild allegations. However, a pretty daring move to kill him after quasdas told the doc to heal jandal7. While I can't find no clues for why jandal7 should've been healed over anybody else, this statement has taken place and seems like a gutsy move by the mafia to kill him. The effect of it mostly is that we loose our main moderating role that doesn't speak in a super-aggressive manner. Who benefitted the most from killing jandal? Well surely it's quasdas at this point, because he a) was questioning him and b) was moderating the talks to sanity before being pushed out. Both things that do benefit quasdas.
For fifth I'm looking at the current state of the art. There seems to be one side of the town containing quasdas, ryant and somehow also sammyt. On the other side we had jandal and marco, both dead now, alongside jseadog, bbl and dftrek. Thinking about that I tend to more and more side with these, though I have a strong feeling for neither of those (if I'd have to pick the one I trust most so far it would be df_trek as townie). Then we have the lynch noone/lynch for activity side of TMM, hillis, trekbmc (excused I guess). It seems like they're playing the waiting game, which is somehow okay for the first night but needs a change as soon as possible. If I missed anybody, you're clearly too quiet atm.
Finally I'm going to lay my thoughts on people on the table for this early point. This is basically combined by 3 variables I try to figure out. Actions in-game, tone of in-game communication and compatibility of in-game behaviour to other daily (mafia or non-mafia) behaviour. These are the results:
Tendency to trust: df_trek neutral: baseballlover312, hillis91, jseadog Tendency to mistrust: sammyt93, trekbmc, TMM Wildcard: quasdas, ryant
With that being said, I start the day off with lynching sammyt93. He was the decicive person turning the tables for the marcovdw lynch. As long as he can't answer my question towards his final hammer with more than just keeping quasdas alive I'll keep it on him. However, I also expect TMM and trekbmc to clear their positions as soon as possible.
When enough people are shouting, it's not a bad idea to sit back and watch. Staying out if you can get a nice view of how people are leaning and can really focus on what they are actually saying.
My viewpoint is always to avoid early lynchings, becuase they are based on nothing. Have discussions yes, lynch no. But here we are with Marco down and a seeming slide against Quesadillas to go down 4 people in 2 full days of play.
And for what? Some suspisions based on irrational comments made in an argument, of staying out of an argument.
I'm thinking to lynch Qasdas. If he's town, he is just plain unhelpful. The constant attacks and arguments allow the mafia to sit back and hide, and you can't tell if the responses are mafia or town becuase his play doesn't seem to help show one way or ther other, everyone is just messed up in it. So a lynch would allow us to refocus without the distraction and start making progress, especially into Day 3 where the power roles can start to make gains and figure things out.
Or he is mafia just blowing smoke and keeping the two other's safely hidden in the background by overly drawing the attention.
Both scenarios, the town benefits from his death.
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician, and why did the Mafia no decide to kill a known power role?
My answer, it's a mafia move. Claim a power role, albeit a weaker one. If someone count-claims you kill a known role, or you go un challenged and take a leading position in the town secretly.
Since people are asking and I'm gonna be out all day and don't have much time (or anything to lose), I'll just let it be known that I'm a regular townie.
I won't be home again with time to read for another 11 hours after I run errands and go to work. I'll have a more detailed post then (or tomorrow morning if I'm super exhausted).
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
TheManxMissile wrote:
When enough people are shouting, it's not a bad idea to sit back and watch. Staying out if you can get a nice view of how people are leaning and can really focus on what they are actually saying.
My viewpoint is always to avoid early lynchings, becuase they are based on nothing. Have discussions yes, lynch no. But here we are with Marco down and a seeming slide against Quesadillas to go down 4 people in 2 full days of play.
And for what? Some suspisions based on irrational comments made in an argument, of staying out of an argument.
I'm thinking to lynch Qasdas. If he's town, he is just plain unhelpful. The constant attacks and arguments allow the mafia to sit back and hide, and you can't tell if the responses are mafia or town becuase his play doesn't seem to help show one way or ther other, everyone is just messed up in it. So a lynch would allow us to refocus without the distraction and start making progress, especially into Day 3 where the power roles can start to make gains and figure things out.
Or he is mafia just blowing smoke and keeping the two other's safely hidden in the background by overly drawing the attention.
Both scenarios, the town benefits from his death.
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician, and why did the Mafia no decide to kill a known power role?
My answer, it's a mafia move. Claim a power role, albeit a weaker one. If someone count-claims you kill a known role, or you go un challenged and take a leading position in the town secretly.
Lynch Ryant
You're kidding right? He is CONFIRMED to be legit politician
TheManxMissile wrote:
When enough people are shouting, it's not a bad idea to sit back and watch. Staying out if you can get a nice view of how people are leaning and can really focus on what they are actually saying.
My viewpoint is always to avoid early lynchings, becuase they are based on nothing. Have discussions yes, lynch no. But here we are with Marco down and a seeming slide against Quesadillas to go down 4 people in 2 full days of play.
And for what? Some suspisions based on irrational comments made in an argument, of staying out of an argument.
I'm thinking to lynch Qasdas. If he's town, he is just plain unhelpful. The constant attacks and arguments allow the mafia to sit back and hide, and you can't tell if the responses are mafia or town becuase his play doesn't seem to help show one way or ther other, everyone is just messed up in it. So a lynch would allow us to refocus without the distraction and start making progress, especially into Day 3 where the power roles can start to make gains and figure things out.
Or he is mafia just blowing smoke and keeping the two other's safely hidden in the background by overly drawing the attention.
Both scenarios, the town benefits from his death.
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician, and why did the Mafia no decide to kill a known power role?
My answer, it's a mafia move. Claim a power role, albeit a weaker one. If someone count-claims you kill a known role, or you go un challenged and take a leading position in the town secretly.
Lynch Ryant
You're kidding right? He is CONFIRMED to be legit politician
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
TheManxMissile wrote:
When enough people are shouting, it's not a bad idea to sit back and watch. Staying out if you can get a nice view of how people are leaning and can really focus on what they are actually saying.
My viewpoint is always to avoid early lynchings, becuase they are based on nothing. Have discussions yes, lynch no. But here we are with Marco down and a seeming slide against Quesadillas to go down 4 people in 2 full days of play.
And for what? Some suspisions based on irrational comments made in an argument, of staying out of an argument.
I'm thinking to lynch Qasdas. If he's town, he is just plain unhelpful. The constant attacks and arguments allow the mafia to sit back and hide, and you can't tell if the responses are mafia or town becuase his play doesn't seem to help show one way or ther other, everyone is just messed up in it. So a lynch would allow us to refocus without the distraction and start making progress, especially into Day 3 where the power roles can start to make gains and figure things out.
Or he is mafia just blowing smoke and keeping the two other's safely hidden in the background by overly drawing the attention.
Both scenarios, the town benefits from his death.
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician, and why did the Mafia no decide to kill a known power role?
My answer, it's a mafia move. Claim a power role, albeit a weaker one. If someone count-claims you kill a known role, or you go un challenged and take a leading position in the town secretly.
Lynch Ryant
You're kidding right? He is CONFIRMED to be legit politician
How is it 100% confirmed if I may ask?
So in your mind it's a great idea for a mafia member claiming politician be completely up for a tie vote? That would make no sense and he's basically putting his life on the line on the coinflip. It just sounds completely outrageous for ryant to do that. I'll change that percentage to 99% because there's an incredibly small chance that someone would actually basically throw the game like that. And I haven't seen a counter claim neither
TheManxMissile wrote:
When enough people are shouting, it's not a bad idea to sit back and watch. Staying out if you can get a nice view of how people are leaning and can really focus on what they are actually saying.
My viewpoint is always to avoid early lynchings, becuase they are based on nothing. Have discussions yes, lynch no. But here we are with Marco down and a seeming slide against Quesadillas to go down 4 people in 2 full days of play.
And for what? Some suspisions based on irrational comments made in an argument, of staying out of an argument.
I'm thinking to lynch Qasdas. If he's town, he is just plain unhelpful. The constant attacks and arguments allow the mafia to sit back and hide, and you can't tell if the responses are mafia or town becuase his play doesn't seem to help show one way or ther other, everyone is just messed up in it. So a lynch would allow us to refocus without the distraction and start making progress, especially into Day 3 where the power roles can start to make gains and figure things out.
Or he is mafia just blowing smoke and keeping the two other's safely hidden in the background by overly drawing the attention.
Both scenarios, the town benefits from his death.
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician, and why did the Mafia no decide to kill a known power role?
My answer, it's a mafia move. Claim a power role, albeit a weaker one. If someone count-claims you kill a known role, or you go un challenged and take a leading position in the town secretly.
Lynch Ryant
You're kidding right? He is CONFIRMED to be legit politician
How is it 100% confirmed if I may ask?
The chances of me not being a politician seems pretty low to me since there is not a counter claim and Marco got lynched yesterday in a tie and I was the deciding vote
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
I'm going to look back over the last few posts and will post my views, but I'm going to put this here first, the last view of Marco's posts seemed extremely pro town for me (I was not there) so the timing and reasoning of Sammy's vote on him is extremely suspect for me. I probably would have preferred Marco to live at the end
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
PCM.Daily NFL Fantasy Football Champion: 2012 PCM.Daily NHL Prediction Game Champion: 2013 PCM.Daily NFL Prediction Game Champion: 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021
TheManxMissile wrote:
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician?
I'm hoping I know why but @ryant, please can you make sure you answer this one. You answering this question in your own words is very important as if it is why I hope it is then it could help convince the town to drop the old way of thinking that is holding them back.
Wasn't the tie in favour to Marco knowing that sammy was last vote? So the politician it's obviously between ryant sammy and quasdas...as we already have a claim I don't doubt about it. Or at least is very unlikely, let say 0.01% that the politician is sammy or quasdas
TheManxMissile wrote:
My big question so far is, why did Ryant announce himself as Politician?
I'm hoping I know why but @ryant, please can you make sure you answer this one. You answering this question in your own words is very important as if it is why I hope it is then it could help convince the town to drop the old way of thinking that is holding them back.
Ok... I'll try to explain my logic for coming out. The way I see it is that the politician is not an immensely strong role and out of the confirmed roles it makes sense for the politician to come out before I die. It gives town a confirmed town member and removes any controversy later in the game. Even if I died to mafia night 1 it wouldn't have been terrible since I'd assume the doctor would be on me so the mafia would have to use the strongman on me. On that point, I didn't see the logic in quadsas in asking for the doctor to be on kendal, I know hes explained it but I dont really understand that tbh.
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
df_Trek wrote:
Wasn't the tie in favour to Marco knowing that sammy was last vote? So the politician it's obviously between ryant sammy and quasdas...as we already have a claim I don't doubt about it. Or at least is very unlikely, let say 0.01% that the politician is sammy or quasdas
Considering they are both active enough and them coming out would be a golden opportunity to lynch a mafia member (if I was lying I'd literally be nothing else) you have to question both Sammy and Quadsas. I am 100% town, I dont see an argument against that. That's why TMM is suspect in my eyes. Now I have been going over this in my head over and over in my head and using reverse psychology on this thinking to myself, "surely a town member can't come out with something so stupid" but also "surely mafia wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves in such a way" not sure what you guys think but I dont see a reason why a town member would question someone who is essentially confirmed soo much... :/
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
df_Trek wrote:
Wasn't the tie in favour to Marco knowing that sammy was last vote? So the politician it's obviously between ryant sammy and quasdas...as we already have a claim I don't doubt about it. Or at least is very unlikely, let say 0.01% that the politician is sammy or quasdas
Considering they are both active enough and them coming out would be a golden opportunity to lynch a mafia member (if I was lying I'd literally be nothing else) you have to question both Sammy and Quadsas. I am 100% town, I dont see an argument against that. That's why TMM is suspect in my eyes. Now I have been going over this in my head over and over in my head and using reverse psychology on this thinking to myself, "surely a town member can't come out with something so stupid" but also "surely mafia wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves in such a way" not sure what you guys think but I dont see a reason why a town member would question someone who is essentially confirmed soo much... :/
The fact you were not counter claimed, nevermind the tied vote also confirming it should be enough.
I already stated as much
sammyt93 wrote:
Ryant is clearly confirmed town, anyone who has missed that second statement needs to reread this thread so far before posting again.
TMM seems to have missed something before his previous post, or is just mafia playing very badly.
I like the responses, that's good discussion! I shift to Lynch no-one, feeling satisfied in the reply for now. I just couldn't let the claim be so overlooked by the rest of the aimless shouting. Although you were never in danger, given the way the rest of the lynch votes are going.
Obviously ryant is a townie, indeed. For some reason I thought sammy switched from lynching quasdas to lynching marcovdw. Thinking of that, that makes the claim by quasdas to protect jandal at night a little bit shady, as then ryant should've been the obvious one to protect (and should be in the next nights).
What also happened was TMM coming out and speaking a little bit. Not a glamorous post, and not productive really, but at least showing up. His way of thinking on quasdas somehow matches mine, with a small but sharp difference. I think that the mess quasdas creates is helping the town, as it forces argumentation - no matter whether he's a townie or not. However, quasdas should definitely be aware that his trump-esque style of arguing alongside several horrible ideas is close to reaching a point where you gotta think he's a mafia member. For now I would not want to lynch him as long as the discussions he creates enhance progress on our findings.
Saying that I didn't really like the statements of tmm contentwise, I would at leat for now leave him out of my closer lynch ideas for this round. Instead, I continue to look towards sammyt, trekbmc and quasdas.
Quasdas is, as stated, not my target for now as he helps driving discussions. I also credit him for directly answering sammys questions.
Trekbmc is my contribution choice. I'm still not in love with his opening post, and he did not react convincingly to my critics on this. I do not like that he talked so little, and even if he's been sick, it's time to come out rather sooner than later. We have seen zero contribution from him so far, just empty words. I think if he doesn't come out with strong arguments this day, I'll insist on lynching him next day the latest.
Sammyt93 is the content choice, as I dislike his action in the game so far. While voting for the wrong guy may be an accident, it also could have been the decicive move to save a mafia member. On day 2 he wrote a big post, which I usually like, but this time it smells a little fishy for several reasons. First: Backing off so quickly after stating your thoughts on somebody that didn't give a convincing explanation is not a good thing. It makes either your first allegation seem like whataboutism or just like a fake claim to "have said something". Second: Your words towards quasdas and to the town about quasdas make you look like being the helper for master quasdas. You're talking about him broadening his horizon, but at the same I ask you to think a little bit out of the box. Especially as there are none of the signs you claimed leading towards being the only player that has shown strong sides of being a townie.
Please can we stop trying to lynch Quadsas as he is the only player that has shown any strong signs of being town so far, are we trying to win this game or not?
He just has shown that he is willing to thrive a discussion, which makes sense as a townie, but if you're mafia does so as well if you're able to control stuff. That being said, as you've read I don't disagree too much on this with your general opinion on handling the quasdas topic. However, I question your motivation, as again looking at the voting of day one I can very much see both of you being mafia.
at the same time while saying he may be townie 
![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
