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23-11-2024 08:29
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Mafia VIII | Dumbtell or Scumtell?
Croatia14
Aquarius97 wrote:I agree with Croatia that Masons should come out now. Why?

- No one would counterclaim at this point unless they want to be lynched at the next minute

- We would heve 2 confirmed townies that would increase our chances of lynching a mafie member

- It would be a major distraction for the mafia, as they can't afford the masons to be alive late in the game, so they'd need to kill them during nights rather early, instead of trying to target other townies. So in that matter it could increase a doctor safe chances.


We need more opinions on that now.

Also; I don't like everybody talking about Hillis in a manner that we could be fine with killing him, hence I very much doubt he is mafia at this point.
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sammyt93
If the masons claim now, we have 2 presumably uncontestable confirmed townie's whose opinion will hold more sway. I say presumably as the mafia would be set to lose the 2 that counter claim the next 2 days so wouldn't be worth the risk to lleave just 1 vs 4? Maybe 5. That number might be off if there is a doctor save or if I can't count.

The doctor is forced into saving one or the other, then up to mafia to try and guess which one isn't protected or to try and find the doctor instead.

It might make more sense to claim second day instead of first to get a read on first night mafia kill before they claim to give them something to go on but I don't know if it's worth the risk of them potentially being that night kill.

I'd like to think they aren't currently in danger of being lynched because surely they would claim to avoid it if one of them was to make sure the other one survives and is fully trusted.

Unless one of them is currently too inactive for the other one to want to claim as they don't think the inactive one will back them up.
 
sammyt93
Actually now that I think about it more, if the masons claim, and the doctor saves the wrong one the first night wouldn't the mafia just blow up the other Mason with the terrorist?

It buys the rest of the townie's an extra day, but doesn't necessarily help us if the bomb is used as soon as day 2 starts.
 
baseballlover312
Aquarius97 wrote:
Oh, almost forgot. About the situation with Sammy and kandesbunzler that some of you might be finding "fishy". Obviously it was just a coincidence, but there's no way i can convince you of that. I'm quite sure some of you also thought that a "warning vote" on the rookie might be a good idea, and that two people happened to post it at the same time... it can happen. I'm quite sure if we were both Mafia or the masons we wouldn't be that stupid of writing the "same post" within a minute.


This just confirmed my suspicions much more. This line of thinking is exactly what I was getting at in my previous post. The plan would be so unlikely and fishy to do right at the beginning, that it would work to have the opposite effect of appearing innocent, and that opposite effect would be reinforced with quotes like this. Certainly, it's a bold and risky strategy, but if it's pulled off, it seems to prove to townies that they aren't collaborating, and aren't both mafia. That could be extremely vital for a mafia victory even if one of them is later nabbed in an unrelated incident.

I personally don't buy it. Coincidences like that don't happen. And no, I didn't think of immediately placing a warning vote on someone just because they're a new player. That whole concept is strange to me. The activity strategy makes sense, but targeting a new player just seems cruel. However, in a town of familiar names, it is an easy strategy to defend and get people to jump on board with if you're convincing enough. So it'd be a perfect way to kill a townie day 1, with no suspicion or real reasoning.

For this reason, I'm changing my vote. Not that Croatia has exonerated himself, but I think there's more to go on here.

Lynch Aquarius27
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df_Trek
reflecting on what happened from my last post...I said I didn't like the mood was flowing in the town with many non-sense lynch here and there, and I was examinating on who created this context. Looks obvious that all of this starts from a resolute code written immediatly by Knockout. BUT: I agree with many of his later opinions and, even more important than this, this situation seems to be favorable to mafia too, moreover he and others weren't scared to expose themselves trying to reach some conclusions. Then, my suspicions are aimed on who is enjoying this situation and watch others slay each other. I put now my vote on lynch ryant, but I'll appreciate to heard something from trek and hillis soon...
 
knockout
Spoiler
This is obviously not a complete lists of things I try to notice as I'm keeping a few for myself especially when that are things that the mafia might easily avoid in the future if they know what to watch for. And I'm also aware that by talking about them people will not be willing to use them on me / against me which is fine and which i expect, too. Gauge for yourself if my way of playing benefits the town more or if it harms them more "causing chaos"/taking the lead or whatever other reasons you might have and whether my intentions are honest.

Also i want to mention that those criterias are not things i've thought out myself but are heavily drawn from several guides I've read over the time but agree with them a lot more since having experienced those tells first hand from the other side of the town. You definitely can find a couple great examples in my game as mafia.


I know that a couple of people will not like me taking the initiative again but i want to dig a bit more into what happened so far. As always I strongly encourage everyone to read through this post and correct me if you find loopholes or disagree with me in parts or entirely. I'll try to analyze the situation as well as I can in this post and I'll explain what I'm looking for at this stage in an attempt to find mafia and see who fits into the ideas and thus could be a good mafia candidate in my eyes. Obviously not every mafia member would fit into this but i feel like these are common characteristics of mafia members. The goal of the town is obviously to find information that helps identifying mafia members. The town will try to find them by analyzing players' actions, promoting their own ideas and plans to coordinate the town members.

It's rare that the mafia does blatant mistakes that can be immediatelly identified as such. They will try to fake doing exactly the same things the town does and they will say smart (sounding) things. To get them we need to look at how and why they do things. I look for these things in particular:

- Trying to blend in: The mafia generally hates the spotlight. They don't want to get attention and often automatically get a bit more quiet and try to act like most of the usual town players without sticking out their heads too much. We have the general tendency to lynch those who stick out (look at basically every season's first day and see who was lynched: the one who posts countless GIFs, the one who is the new face in the group or the one who makes random unasked statements) and the Mafia knows that.
- Posting long but contentless posts: Since they want to appear helpful they will try to make longer posts. Those will be thought out and smart. Except they dont help the discussion at all.
- Rehashing analysis & arguments: They will use things brought up by others, repackage them a bit and present them as their own thoughts. Just summarizing the actions is another way this is representated. It doesnt look like a bad post and they seem to be contributing but in reality they dont push forward the town.
- Not pointing fingers / Indecision about people's alignment: Many mafia members are chronically scared to point fingers at others in the early part of the game or anything that might restrictict their future action.
- Differences between words and actions: They don't want to be linked with town lynches so they might hint at someone being mafia without actually trying to lynch them.
- Apathy: The mafia doesnt care who gets lynched as long as it is not them. They like to sit back as long as only townies are in danger of getting lynched and it is tough to go against that instinct.
- Cherrypicking mistakes and blowing up small things: Mafia members often know what they want to see and might focus on a simple mistake and ignoring a lot of things that dont fit into their picture.

I think those things combined with the possible intention and timing of their post is what i want to catch. And ideally i'd compare it with past games played by the same players but sample size is still relatively low and i feel like intention and timing are bigger reasons.


Player by Player analyis:
(order of first post)

Ian Butler
- I made a case for him earlier mainly due to the seeming desire to blend in
- Post #67 is another post that I dont particularly like: It's quite a long post without much new analysis and no opinions. He talks about me and basically just says that I'm a strong player but i cant see any indication whatsoever whether I'm town or mafia in his eyes. Same thing about Croatia: sums up what happened, brings one pro and one con and again concludes with stating that he knows absolutely nothing. Fulfills "long contentless posts" and "not fingerpointing"
-I have to add that I've seen something i see as a slight town tell in him at some point (that i dont want to reveal unless a bigger group massively pressures me to do that because it would render said thing useless for the rest of the games here)

Verdict: Definitely still suspicious to me.

sammyt
- the first player deciding to join my "lynching an inactive player" shows a bit of initiative which is good. who he lynches basically doesnt matter for now because "new member" is no better reason than "he once was the terrorist" or "has a long name" or whatever other things you might come up
- i dont like the timing thing but i am not intending to use that on his own without connecting it with anything else
- #66 sounds smart, i'm not sure why he thinks he had to defend himself quite that long there since only the timing accident was brought up against him which he cant really dispute anyway.
- #68 is pretty much the tone that i would have expected him to chose if he were town and looks quite reasonable with a right level of certainty too.
- his masons posts contain some pretty "wild" ideas (the mafia could blow up the surviving mason early day 2 which would be bad for the town -> seriously?!). I'm tempted to believe that this is in good faith though

Verdict: When i started this post I wanted to write "More likely to be town for now" but now (after seeing Aquarius' most recent posts i'll change it to "Doesnt matter. Aquarius is more suspicious so he would get the vote anyway"

Aquarius:
- The timing issue: I want to believe it is a random occurance.
- #79: After everyone had posted somewhere and he went quiet for some time he knew he had to provide some help and probably also change his vote. So what does he do: He hides his vote for trek (with the least possible explanation) between a smart sounding post about masons (which actually is good) and a bit of defense for the timing thing. It doesnt look like he wants to get trek lynched which a lynch vote at this point probably should and it can be very easily changed later in the game without having to rely on the earlier position taken. If trek makes another good post he can easily switch to someone else as it fits him while if he doesnt post he sits a lone bandwaggoner on a townie that isnt going to get lynched tonight. win-win for him if he were mafia.
- "I'm quite sure if we were both Mafia or the masons we wouldn't be that stupid of writing the "same post" within a minute." (#79) If you were the masons it doesnt matter because you can simply claim your role to protect you and the entire discussion doesnt matter anymore. And i really dont like seeing you play the "not that stupid" card for the same reasons bbl posted previously.

Verdict: Definitely possible that he is mafia.

marcovdw:
- #30: Just 2(!) minutes after the timing thing he basically tried to turn it in the joke. Should Aquarius / Sammyt flip mafia then i would look at him as the third member of the ship. After my question he (#41) played it down a bit without giving a clear indication whether he leans in any direction (maybe trying to see how the rest looks at it without committing to any side of the story?) and went on to lynchvote an inactive one (distract from the timing issue? trying to blend in?) which he hadnt done previously.
- "Though I think he's proven himself to be off the hook for now." It feels like a totally unnecessary sentence and i struggle to see any sort of intention or message he could have for it. If he were mafia with Aquarius and Sammy it could be interpreted as a "they did right to vote for someone else" to strengthen their position a bit? Very wacky interpretation i know.
- #41: "mysterious absense [of df_trek]": the mysterious absense was 22h after the game started. It is [at the time of writing this sentence] 31h since dftreks last reply to you, how do you explain your mysterious absense since then?
- #69: Summary, Summary, Lynch stays away from all the action elsewhere. not sticking your head up, avoiding being caught on a townie bandwaggon, you name it.

Verdict: Looks quite suspicious to me, too, but i'd see Aquarius as a much more logical lynch vote today since a lot of this bases on the idea that Aquarius could potentially be mafia.


BBL:
#32: Fine but i would have prefered seeing alternative plans suggested if you dont want to see random lynching.
#60 & #84: I like the posts.

Verdict: Definitely not a lynch target today, one of the most townish looking players so far.

kandesbunzler
(do you mind if i call you kanzler or bundeskanzler? lol)
- It doesnt say anything about his alignment but i want to point out that he is not an inexperienced rookie and i expect more nuanced play by him (#33 is a clear indication that he has played a couple of games (with probably more action on day 1 i'd assume) and #73 shows that he looks for long texts without much content which might not be the first thing a rookie would look for.
- There has been a lot of interaction of different other players with him / towards him. Quick summary: "Bandwaggon"/Timing issue on kanzler -> quickly defense towards him (which basically noone else got in the beginning - except maybe me) -> quickly a counter waggon on hillis is started -> votes on him are gone quickly again -> Kanzler joins on hillis wagon. Every single one of those looks on itself fine but to me there were a few too many players tied to him without any action by him which gives me a bit of paranoia. I just cant work it out whether there is anything in particular that should be looked at.

Verdict: His posts look townish to me. I dont have a good gut feeling about him but there is nothing i can point it to or nothing i would categorize as slip-up, town tell, mafia tell or whatever so for now I'm considering him a no-read.

trekbmc
A single post very at the beginning and nothing afterwards. I dont like that but it doesnt look like he will be lynched (and he is a relatively good player so I'm not gonna go after him today. Cant obviously give a verdict. That said: Keep in mind that he was the first one to vote Hillis on the basis of inactivity at that time. That looks like a relatively interesting excuse for leading a lynch without being hit by the fall-back.

ryant
#39: basically saying "I dont like lynching day 1" but I'm doing it anyway. Why???
#39: I hated when he gave that underhanded suggestion that I'm again being "a helpful mafia" but he was willing to back it up later with his vote which looks a bit better.
#64: Votes for me with a two sentence explanation of which one is an unanwered question and one a simple fact. I'd really like to see some sort of analysis or answering the questions he brings up about me.

Verdict: Doesnt look good but probably not the hottest candidate out there right now.

Hillis:
- got votes early due to not having posted yet
- #42: tries a funny first post with mostly jokes about other players which basically is his last post
- doesnt defend himself nor does any other player really defend him
- the town went silent once he had the lead in votes. Hardly any other players were further targetted to distract from his absense nor did anything else really take place. I believe that might be a sign that the mafia is happy with him being lynched and sits in apathy on the sideline.

Verdict: More likely town lurker (also not a good thing) but i dont think he is mafia based on the lack of action yesterday and earlier today.

df_Trek
- Basically only had two posts that are any noteworthy #70 and #85 and those give me a bit of a townish vibe.

Verdict: More likely town.

Croatia
- i shared my feeling about him in #58 already
- Not a lot of things from him later that i really wanna rate too high but I give him credit for being outspoken against the hillis waggon

Verdict More likely town. And yeah he's right: If there are other candidates day 1 with a similar mafia likelyhood then they would preferably get my vote over him and there are plenty of those.

jseadog
#48: First post: For most players I would probably qualify this post as long without content and a bit scummy but that is the type of post jseadog did all the time in past games so I'm not holding it against him.
#65: Nice consistency to his first post in terms of defending a guy (me) he considers to bring benefits to the town
#76: posts a vote count, says he has double-checked and it is wrong (Ryant changed his vote to me in #64). Could be honest mistake but also could be manipulation to let the hillis vote lead look larger? Any opinions on that?
#78: Again consistency to his previous vote of voting out weaker players

Verdict: Leaning townish.

I'm sorry that the later ones got shorter. I need some sleep.


I would like to see someone else lynched because i think Hillis looks townish by the nonaction of others. I'd like to see a waggon on Ian Butler or Aquarius emerging. For now I'm keeping my vote on Ian but I will change it tomorrow if nothing changes. By the look of opinions I guess it is more likely that an Aquarius one gets started.

Aquarius: If you are mason please claim together with your partner as soon as possible!
 
Aquarius97
Actually now that I think about it more, if the masons claim, and the doctor saves the wrong one the first night wouldn't the mafia just blow up the other Mason with the terrorist?

It buys the rest of the townie's an extra day, but doesn't necessarily help us if the bomb is used as soon as day 2 starts.


Are Masons really that important? I mean, with your "idea" mafia loses the terrorist in exchange for two townies at the very start of game. From 10/3 to 8/2 ratio and with two powerless mafia roles. I'd dare to say that it wouldn't be the smartest move by mafia...

@Knockout I can confirm i'm not a Mason.

About my vote on Trek. As i already said, he hasn't posted since his first post, and he was the first to vote for Hillis, ironically pointing at his inactivity. And he's been online at least 2 days after his last post in this thread. At least Hillis hasn't been online since a few hours after he made his last post here. I know his posts hasn't been serious enough to analyze anything out of them, and that historically he hasn't been the most productive player. But he's just 2 votes away from automatic lynching, and as we still have 20~ hours left in this day, So i wanted to keep my vote away from him until he finally speaks, or the day comes to an end. Maybe he's able to contribute with something, or maybe not.

@BBL I'm going to take in consideration this from knockout
"Cherrypicking mistakes and blowing up small things" You have just made up a theory about how Sammy and I were trying to create a cover-up so people wouldn't thought that we are working together before anyone could even think that.

I have been mafia before, and if not because doctor saves were made public just in that game, revealing townies at critical points, i would have won that game being literally alone in mafia (because i played with two inactive players). And you can watch the thread to see how i played it that time, and that i wouldn't make such 101 Mafia mistake
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sammyt93
You would be down to 2/7 with the day one lynch, it's not whether the Mason role is powerful or not, it's the fact that you remove the only guaranteed townie's from being able to lead any discussion before they have a chance to influence anything. If neither of the 2 non terrorist mafia were deemed suspicious before that then it wouldn't feel like that much of a risk depending on who the masons are.

The fact i've never been mafia or had a town role means I can only theorycraft the way the roles would change players thinking but I always think it's better to get any thoughts out there, so that others can tell me i'm being stupid and I can move on to analysing something else.

If I help find a mafia member to lynch then that's the ideal goal, but even if I get night killed before that happens at least I know they killed a townie that night and not the doctor who is more powerful and should be more helpful than I can be due to his role.

Btw people that played with me before should expect me to just put down all my thoughts no matter how left field by now as I like to get them all out there so I can rule out the worse ones and focus on developing the better suspicions I have.

about jseadog's voting, he joined a train that had disbanded, restarting it, then joined the biggest train to put more pressure on, giving it a big enough lead we can't easily bring another one up to put pressure on a second person instead of trying to boost a counter train himself when he said hillis wasn't the only suspicous/ fairly inactive player.

That coupled with his previous comments mostly filled with fluff make it seem to me like he is trying to blend in and appear helpful without actually contributing all that much.

His actions seem to me to be totally contradictory to his first post which is why I'm suspicous of him, at best he comes across as an unhelpful townie at the moment which is why I haven't removed my vote on him.

I'd love to hear what others think about him as I don't want to fixate on him when there are 3 mafia members out there to find, not just 1.
 
ryant
Spoiler
From Knockout
ryant
#39: basically saying "I dont like lynching day 1" but I'm doing it anyway. Why???
#39: I hated when he gave that underhanded suggestion that I'm again being "a helpful mafia" but he was willing to back it up later with his vote which looks a bit better.
#64: Votes for me with a two sentence explanation of which one is an unanwered question and one a simple fact. I'd really like to see some sort of analysis or answering the questions he brings up about me.


I'll answer my question that I posed earlier - you did play the role of the helpful mafia back in mafia V no? You didn't post too often but when you did you went into some deep analysis before going into what direction you wanted the game to go. Now you've gone into deep analysis into every player - which at this stage in the game I don't feel is too helpful anyway, and then you say you want to see either Aquarius or Ian lynched instead of hillis (who really hasn't allayed fears he is mafia).

I have routinely stated that I disagree with random lynches early on but it became pretty clear early on that this was not the order of the day and so I chose to put some pressure on hillis early. If hillis is town then it just proves me right that we shouldn't lynch early doors.

Now I'm going to lynch hillis since this is the opposite of what knockout wants (I believe them to be mafia also).


Masons should really come out early on, it removes claim space for mafia late game if you do it early - the terrorist is only likely to sacrifice themselves when they are on the block or the doctor is out.


I'd also like to state I am a non-power role town member, I realised I played this game wrong and needed to state this fact else you guys would believe I was mafia or something... Wink
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Croatia14
Reminder: we Need masons immediately in order ro vote on other actors as I believe it is the last day.
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Marcovdw
knockout wrote:
marcovdw:
- #41: "mysterious absense [of df_trek]": the mysterious absense was 22h after the game started. It is [at the time of writing this sentence] 31h since dftreks last reply to you, how do you explain your mysterious absense since then?


Because for the past 24 hours I've been waiting on my fellow mason to agree that we should come forward now in order to avoid him getting lynched. Unfortunately my fellow mason has not been online for the past three days.

So I'm just going to do it: hillis91 and I are the Masons. So far our conversations were:
Greeting each other
Discussing our power with this role (The power of free speech)
Plan for the day (Not come forward immediately on the day, when one of us is in danger of getting lynched then yes)

Since hillis was at 4 lynch votes yesterday I asked him whether he thought we should reveal (I was in favor). No response. Now he has five, so I'm revealing without his consent but I'm sure he won't mind as it should keep him in the game for now.
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jandal7
Indeed 13 hours left. Happy lynching. And a quick thanks already to all of you - this first day with lots of discussion is going better than I ever even hoped for, and I look forward to the rest of the game Smile
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knockout
Spoiler
Regarding masons:

I like to point out already that during discussions we just know that they wrote their posts with good intention, not that they are correct. Just having them out doesn't mean that others should just follow their judgement, everyone else is still needed for analysis


I want to believe this claim but its still time to counter claim and if anyone else is a mason there is no excuse to not counterclaim!

Lynch aquarius. Reasons should be obvious after my previous post.
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Croatia14
Also, right now there is no excuse to keep their vote on hillis
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jseadog1
Definitely agree that at this point we should keep hillis & Marco around. Nobody else has come forward to claim anything so there is no reason to not believe them.

I do not like the fact that sammy has been targeting me from the start of this game. His reasons for lynching me fit exactly into what knockout said, that I play the game this way everytime. Its no longer a reasonable excuse to use considering there are many points of evidence in past games of me playing this way and ending up to be pro-town even in a detective role at one point.

I want to lynch sammy or at least take a closer look at him in the future.

Now to what knockout was saying about Aquarius.

- "I'm quite sure if we were both Mafia or the masons we wouldn't be that stupid of writing the "same post" within a minute." (#79) If you were the masons it doesnt matter because you can simply claim your role to protect you and the entire discussion doesnt matter anymore. And i really dont like seeing you play the "not that stupid" card for the same reasons bbl posted previously.


I really think he has a strong point here and that Aquarius was trying to protect himself by using an example that was not well thought out. I think the discussion certainly would still matter regardless of who claimed what roles, especially if more than 2 people claimed mason. Not that it means much right now but I think sammy and Aquarius are my top 2 targets to be mafia at the moment and one has to go because hillis should stay and hopefully return to bring something to the discussion.

Lynch Aquarius

Spoiler
Before anyone says I am jumping on another bandwagon, it's quite obvious that hillis should stick around for now and at this point in the day it is quite pointless to try and put a target on someone else to further persuade people to vote for sammy


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knockout
Croatia14 wrote:
Also, right now there is no excuse to keep their vote on hillis


Exactly this. Also people who currently have a vote on someone who is very unlikely to be lynched today should consider either pushing much harder for their target to convince others or support one of the likely candidates before we get to the deadline. Not a lot of reason to stick to the one man waggon - you can push that again the next days but if it aint happen today it aint happen.
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jseadog1
Anybody can correct me if I am wrong but after looking again this is what I have so far:

Hillis - 3 Votes
Aquarius97 - 3 Votes
df_trek - 2 Votes
jseadog1 - 2 Votes
knockout - 1 Vote
trekbmc - 1 Vote
ryant - 1 Vote

Following jandal's post above we have just over 6 hours left.

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baseballlover312
Short post as I have to get to class soon and won't be out until time is up.

Without a counter claim, I suppose there's no reason not to trust Hillis and Marco, though Hillis's absence isn't very productive for us anyway.

To me, Aquarius and Sammy are the only ones with tangible reasons to be lynched, iffy or not, so we need to get it done. Since Aquarius's response was much more contrived and suspicious to me, I prioritized him, but of course, that vote was based on seeing them as a package.

The hard part of this of course is that if Aquarius is innocent, it doesn't necessarily exonerate Sammy later in the game, it just means they weren't colluding together, both as mafia. Something to keep in mind if things do go sour.

But even if there's no way to be totally sure, this is a risk I think we have no choice but to take. We have no other evidence to go on for others now that Hillis is (currently) an unchallenged mason. Aquarius is the most likely mafia member based on his actions imo, and that's the name of the game.

Just a reminder, as of now, Hillis is still being lynched based on time of votes if I understand correctly. Those who are around and see this should really consider changing their votes to give Aquarius the majority.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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ryant
lynch no one
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Banana John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Banana

Red Bull Driver in RFactor
 
knockout
ryant wrote:
lynch no one


If it looks like a mafia,
smells like a mafia,
posts like a mafia,
It is probably ryant.

I really would like a good explanation for that behaviour and i hope it is not just "knockout was too helpful and he is against lynching noone so lynching noone must be a good idea "
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters!

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