We are proud to present our PCT preview. This preview was created as a cooperation between AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, jandal, knockout and trekbmc.
This preview consists of 4 parts:
1. Quick predictions: To begin each of the participants in the preview was asked to give a quick ranking prediction. This task was more about getting on the same level of debate and to get a quick overview how strong we see different teams than trying to predict the ranking as accurate as possible.
2. Questions of the season: We discussed several important questions for the season in a roundtable format where each of us 5 had the possibility to give their own point of view on certain topics. All questions discussed here are questions relating to the entire division.
3. The squads in detail: This part consists of two minor parts.
3a: Grades per terrain: We all tried to rate the strength of each team on each terrain to give an overview about how strong we rate the teams on the terrains. We included points in a "hybrid terrain" category when the team has riders that are stronger on any hybrid terrains than in the specialized races.
3b: Team-specific question: Similar to the second part of the preview we once again answered questions about the teams in a roundtable format. This time though there is one question specifically asked for each team.
4. The “expert” predictions: Every predictor tried to predict the final ranking table but this time after we looked intensively at each team. These rankings are fully subjective. We marked the changes to the quick prediction. Also we tried to come up with a ranking based on the grades of part two.
AbhishekLFC: Three-way battle between Sicard, Amador and EBH for me. Others I can see making a big impression are Kwiatkowski and TVG.
knockout: I think it will come down to a two way battle between Boasson Hagen and Amador. Boasson Hagen is simply so much ahead of all other puncheurs that he should dominate the division. His 2016 season was disappointing and he has few RDs but he will be the clear favourite in every race he races. Amador is in a similar position to last season where he came very close to the crown and I expect Kinoshita to perform worse with EBH as rival so if EBH struggles Amador is #1 Contender.
Croatia14:: Good point knockout, I go with the same. EBH may lack the race days to make up for Amadors class, who lost his biggest rival in Machado. For me it’s about the Costa Rican, eventhough EBH will dominate the hills. More interesting may be the battle for third. If it would’ve only been for one of Mohs or Cav I’d have gone for one of them, now I guess I’ll have to go with Tejay van Garderen, cause Wisniowski, Burghardt and Vanbilsen will battle an equal 3-way battle for the cobbled crown as well.
trekbmc: I’d say Sicard but he’d have to be planned perfectly. Burghardt, EBH and Amador are the best in their terrains and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of them managed it. Particularly Burghardt is underrated for me, he may not have any qualms emulating Summerhill, especially with Baugnies gone. I’ll go for EBH in the end though, it’s worth remembering that he has not only +3 hill on the next contender but also the equal highest acceleration of the 80+ puncheurs.
jandal: A tough one but like the others my contenders would be Amador and Boasson Hagen as obvious choices though as trek said Sicard is very dangerous with good stats already and then a well planned season (think Hacecky in CT last year). The cobbled guys are a tad too close but as trek also said Burghardt could end up Summerhill levels of good with Baugnies now in PT, but there is some good competition. I think it’ll be Amador with EBH close, and Amador will have to be near his best every race to fend off the dominant Norwegian.
How many points can a Top ITT rider without a TTT team bring his team?
jandal: Randomness never helps TTers especially solo ones but I think a very good TTist could rake in some nice points, nothing stunning but certainly significant. I could use the Ignatiev example and say a lot though, and riders such as him and Fraile are obviously going to bear much more fruit that one note TTers who can score there but only have the most random and least represented discipline to rely on. But I don’t really know, unfortunately the TT randomness can take away the advantage of a good ITT’er but overall I think it’s a bit overstated and that they are worth an investment despite not being essential. Obviously a Generali or Grieg TTT team will make more points in both chrono forms but there’s no doubt a Cornu or a Van Winden are good riders to have.
Croatia14: Euskaltel had a big problem with Cornu last season, eventhough his stats should’ve suggested different. The same problem might come for van Winden or him again, cause, as jandal pointed out, randomness is a problem indeed. With the reduced TT calendar in PCT now also ITTers with extra skills like Paillot and Cornu are a little bit in trouble. I say that 150 points are not unrealistic, but one boom or bust can change anything. They may be the hardest to plan.
knockout: That’s hard to say because a lot will depend on how well a TT specialist can survive other terrains to earn GC points. That’s key for big points. 150 is unrealistic low though. Fiedler scored 400 points last season and i am convinced that Ignatiev will score more this season.
Which is going to be the best promoted team?
AbhishekLFC: Ferrero-Samruk. They could be challenging for promotion if things go their way. A solid off-season. Minions would probably be next best. Isostar to have a couple of outstanding races with Kump, but there’s no one to back him up.
Croatia14: For me it’s about Podium Ambition, the most underrated team in terms of previews so far. I see them similar to Ferrero, only just ahead of them.
jandal: I like a lot of the fresh blood from CT, I take Ferrero as my top but Minions, Podium Ambition, Kraftwerk are all there behind them. Maybe Ferrero, then Podium Ambition as a backup.
knockout: Ferrero - Samruk. They are immediate one of the favourites for promotion and look prepared to follow Evonik and Strava as back-to-back-promoted teams. Kraftwerk, Isostar and Podium Ambition are the teams i see closest to them but i cannot see anybody challenge Ferrero for the best promoted team.
trekbmc: A lot of calls for Ferrero here and if there were as many hilly tours as last year it’d be near certain but without them Ignatiev isn’t what he could be and it’s hard to know how many points he’ll score outside of time trials. Otherwise they have a very good squad but I think Kraftwerk or Podium Ambition have a chance at slipping ahead, Podium with a bonanza of cobbles points and Kraftwerk with Cavendish and Flugel. I’ll call Kraftwerk more out of not wanting to follow the crowd, although Kiserlovski will have to perform past his means.
jandal: I’d like to see Kraftwerk doing well but Cav isn’t guaranteed to dominate enough (but will be good) and Flugel won’t score like last year with the arrivals of TVG and EBH in particular, as well as a less good squad around him. Kiserlovski would need some big surprise results as well. Possible but unlikely.
Which former PT team will struggle the most?
AbhishekLFC: Even with EBH, Grieg will only make it to mid-table I believe. I could very well be wrong and they could end up 10 positions higher, but the rest of the squad doesn’t have many point scorers from first glance.
knockout: I disagree with you. Grieg might not have the highest number of team leaders but the two main team leaders they have are fantastic. Boasson Hagen is without a doubt the best puncheur in the division and their two cobblers are amazing. I see Lukasz Wisniowski at least as a top 3 cobbler in the division and with his backup stats he will perform outside the cobbles as well. Add Luke Rowe who can do very well in semi-classics and also sprints if planned right. I would be surprised if the two of them would score less than 1000 points - probably even more. Add a top TTT team and you have a sure promotion candidate.
I’d like to copy your text and replace Grieg with UBS. Amador will likely score a quite similar amount of points but i cannot see anybody else in the team who could score 300 points without a major upset. They have lots of depth but it’s mainly domestique-level depth and not sub-top leaders depth which imo is more important.
Croatia14: Agree with knockout. Grieg is a promotion team. We don’t need to talk about Newton and Orange as well. It will be between Meiji and UBS. Kinoshita will not dominate in the 2016 manner, and asides from that the team didn’t get significantly better. UBS at least got rid of Schuhmacher, and improved with Reichenbachs Training, TTT, Reinhardt’s training and a better Schelling. Zaini is not a big deal, so in my eyes UBS may have overtaken Meiji. It will be close between those two.
jandal: I have to agree with our Germans here: I don’t see Grieg losing this one, in fact more likely promoting. UBS aren’t top 5 for me but are looking good whilst Meiji aren’t as high as my quick prediction had them and could even slip behind the Swiss Team. Certainly won’t be Orange or Grieg, whilst it might be Newton with a horrible season. If I had to pick one I’d say Meiji but it’ll be tight.
What is the better tactic for this year: Depth in few terrains or a broad approach on all terrains?
AbhishekLFC: Well, the best strategy is to have leaders in all terrains, but since that is almost impossible to get, I’d go with concentrating on a few terrains. The PCT bands (mostly) allow for choosing types of races and this can be used to one’s advantage. But yes, depth without leaders won’t get you anywhere. So, depth in few terrains, but with scoring leaders to make use of that depth too.
Croatia14: We’ve seen several different approaches, and as promoted team I know the struggle of answering that question. While some teams like me went for in between strategies to fill the gaps (obscure terrain combinations like hilly sprints or hilly cobbles), teams like Carlsberg (spread out) or Ticos (pure depth) focussed on different ways. The depth approach is the more dangerous one, because if your leader fails you loose much more points with it. But looking at Strava last year it also can be (very) high reward. Tendencies this year goes in the direction of broader approaches though. But then, the less team focussing deeper on a specific terrain, the more those specialized teams gain in those. I can see it turning out well for most of the specialized teams to reach their goals, but for the title you need to be strong almost everywhere. Grieg has taken a questionable way giving up great depth for the ultimate leader, from being called a save promotion team to a mystery. The season of Grieg and the Comparison between Podium Ambition and Kraftwerk Man Machine after the season may answer this question better.
knockout: I believe that both strategies are equally good. It is way more important to sign the right riders for your strategy than the strategy (few/all terrains) itself. Personally, i feel like an ideal team would ignore exactly one terrain of mountains/sprints/cobbles. The bands looked way more similar this year than in past years where they had a lot clearer identities / specializations but you should be capable of nearly ignoring one terrain. You nearly can never ignore hills so i would not recommend to fully ignore it. Whether you add an additional focus in TTs is a decision of personal taste.
trekbmc: I think it depends more on the team and your goals then anything really, I’d say if you want to promote a varied team lets you take much more advantage of the calendar but if you want to avoid relegating picking some strong leaders who can secure your goals and keep you stable will be a more reliable approach, a lot of it’s up to personal taste and what you value as well, as long as you commit to it and build your team properly to achieve your goal and if you choose to specialise, don’t specialise to much like only choosing one terrain.
jandal: If one way was better you’d see it clearly. There is no better way, only the execution. We saw with Strava great depth bearing great fruit but don’t forget it wasn’t a Ticos situation as Gilbert/Vanendert and Van der Sande also scoring well, without even mentioning others. So to do well you can have one but to promote in my eyes you need to be amazing at one or have a bit of balance. Even without VDS they wouldn’t have promoted and even if you use the argument they’d have had more cobbled depth Gilbert and Vanendert easily make up for that. Spread out is preferable on paper but PCT allows you to not race (m)any of select terrains which helps a bit. But I’d like to see a good leader and depth in a few than a subtop leader and a domestique or two in more. There are so many ways to approach this, none of them “wrong” except maybe for spreading your resources too thin or all-in on one terrain if you don’t have extreme strength and end up with not enough subtop depth but a lot of non-scoring domestique depth. You can find niches that aren’t obvious as Croatia said, you can focus one one terrain but have good reliable wildcards on others in Strava, or you can find good leaders on all. For me you really need a mix of good depth with a good leader on multiple terrains, and agree with knockout that the perfect PCT team misses one for effect without too much cost.
Edited by Croatia14 on 24-10-2017 19:35
AbhishekLFC: I’ll point out three: Mikhail Ignatiev, Warren Barguil and Omar Fraile.
Croatia14: For me Ignatiev being great wouldn’t be a big surprise, he has outstanding stats eventhough this year's calendar quite hurts him a lot. Mekseb Debesay is high up my list. I also like Jens Keukeleire a lot. And watch out for trained Zico Waeytens.
knockout: Lukasz Wisniowski. I expect him to be second best cobbler this season (mainly because Podium Ambition has better support) and i would think that he will get results somewhere else, too. He definitely will surprise some managers.
Croatia14: But isn’t Wisniowski a Top10 individual favourite anyway? With a full supporting cast Wisniowski would be the #1 cobbler anyway.
knockout: Depends on what the expectation is. I felt like he swam under the radar despite his amazing stats. There are quite a few predictions with Grieg outside of the top ten and i feel that this is connected to not recognizing Wisniowski as a second world class leader.
trekbmc: I'm incredibly tempted to say Kolesnikov, simply because I believe anybody with that flat/mo/acc combination has a civic duty to be amazing. But since what's generally being picked by the others are outsider leaders who'll perform above their means. I'll call either Juul-Jensen to impress everybody with his massive acceleration stat or Tsatevich to score much more than expected, not in the hills but on the cobbles, I wouldn't be so surprised if he won Viano. There are a few other guys who I think will surprise, De Maar will be breakaway man of the year I think and I reckon Guardini will outsprint Mohs on more than one occasion, despite leading him out.
Croatia14: Hell no. If Guardini is meant to be the main leadout for Mohs then I see some real problems occurring for Fablok in their fight for promotion. Tsatevich is a good bet, especially looking at the hilly cobbled calendar. Juul Jensen lacks the hill stat in my eyes to be successful in classic hilly races. History has shown that 79 hill is the stat you need to compete. Kolesnikov is great, I like that idea. He’ll have loads of freedom, I can see a similar attacking season that Kruijswijk had when he was unleashed last year.
trekbmc: Well there simply aren’t that many sprinter races, Guardini and Mohs will be together very often simply out of necessity and I’m more predicting PCM to stuff up the lead out then Guardini to be better. As for Juul-Jensen, LLS had 78 hill stat last year and had podiums in several hilly classics, so I think 78 is enough when you have acceleration like that.
jandal: I could see it being Juul-Jensen with a very cool stat combination, though I agree with trek that Kolesnikov is amazing and should be awesome. I’m not sold on Fraile though he is a very nice rider, I just see with MO and not enough hill him being outdone by stage racers. Agree that Ignatiev is a hella good rider but not sure how surprising he is Watch out for Polanc to step it up to the big boys as well.
Which PCT star will be the biggest disappointment of the season?
AbhishekLFC: Gautier and Schreurs.
Croatia14: No way Gautier will disappoint. Bellis prevented him from scoring better quite harsh. For me another puncheur will take this role, and that is Alexander Flügel. He hasn’t got the dominant supporting cast of last season anymore, and his lacking Res may really hurt him now. Otherwise Chen Shikai a good bet for it together with Nairo and Kamyshev, which we talked about already.
AbhishekLFC: Flugel I’d agree to but I’d still rate him above Gautier. Rui Costa is another who I believe can usurp both the riders mentioned here. Especially if it’s a hilly stage race! Kinoshita will be better too I believe.
knockout: I agree with Croatia on this one. Gautier will likely get stronger this season or stay on a similar level than last season. Shikai, Nairo and Kamyshev won’t do well but they won’t be the biggest disappointments because one shouldn't have high expectations in them. Flügel is a good call as he will definitely regress - less support, the arrival of Tejay and Boasson Hagen - yes, he will disappoint. A less popular call: Primož Roglič. He received a very expensive training this offseason but i don’t think it will change a lot. He still is not good enough to compete with the best in mountains (and hills) and there are plenty of other riders for the hybrid profiles. Lots of similar riders like Kwiatek, Roche, Barguil or Schelling around and also the top specialists might go against him in those races. I believe that matt will have hoped for a far bigger effect of the training.
trekbmc: Aside from calling out leaders who have the obvious flaws in stats like acc or hill or just weak back-ups in general, I'm going to pick Maxime Daniel. I really like him as a rider and he should be one of the best cobblists but I get the feeling he'll falter. I think I already mentioned that I don't think Talansky will live up to his wage as well.
jandal: The ex-Flores duo of Talansky and Roglic are good, not great but I think they’re known to be that so I can’t class them as disappointments. I could see Flugel faltering as I said above and the others have already got too but he’s still a classy rider.
Which 2016 PCT team will improve their ranking the most?
knockout: Berg (Last season 19. as Karcher). It’s not even close.
Croatia14: Gotta agree with knockout there. How did Berg finish so low last season? SPAR impressed me this offseason as well though, got some nice moves.
jandal: Not much to add there, Berg for sure, could go up to 18 places better with a good year
AbhishekLFC: I scream, you scream, we all scream for Berg!
trekbmc: I’m going to differ from the majority here and say...wait, no Berg is pretty certain.
Who will win the stage races battle?
AbhishekLFC: Orange, closely followed by UBS.
knockout: Andrei Amador.
Croatia14: Amador it is, though he may miss his super-domestique Schelling more often than he’d like (hello ToA). It may even be that the best 3 climbers of the season come from Latin America, even though at least Henao and Uran shouldn’t be as successful in the Time Trial features.
trekbmc: What type of stage races? Mohs and EBH may win their fair share. As for mountain tours, I’ll differ from the majority opinion and say that Sicard’s hill stat gives him an edge as I really see nothing I don’t like about his stats, although he could suffer a little from lack of support.
jandal: I think Sicard will push Amador a lot but it’s yet to be seen if he’ll be better, so I’ll stick with the Costa Rican for the moment with some good support, even though as Croatia pointed out his superdom Schelling is leading the team in TOA.
AbhishekLFC: Wait, this was an individual question?!! Amador, Uran, Sicard, in that order.
Which 80+ sprinter will score the least?
Croatia14: Sadly Thorsen is CT now, otherwise it would’ve been easy. Vanoverschelde was surprisingly okay last year, for me it’s between Drapac and Guillen, but I go with the later.
AbhishekLFC: Bouhanni and Lavoine two more candidates for me, especially as the latter might get shunted to 2nd place in his team by Guardini.
knockout: Lavoine looks like a candidate if he is mainly used as option 1b / leadout but he also might benefit from a season planning that sees him in lots of races where you don’t see the better sprinters due to that. My pick though is Kobe Vanoverschelde. With his acceleration he simply looks like the weakest of the 80+ sprinters.
Croatia14: Bouhanni is loved by the AI so far. I can see Lavoine, but being a second sprinter might really benefit him, so I don’t see him there.
trekbmc: Guillen 100% Like Maksimov he will have a chance to shine in dead flat races but Guillen has a special lack of back-ups. Also, Juan van Heerden looks to me even worse than Vanoverschelde with even less acceleration.
jandal: I think van Heerden will somehow come up with the hits to outweigh the misses and so this one goes to Guillen but it could be a tight battle.
Edited by Croatia14 on 24-10-2017 19:37
How many wildcard wins will PCT riders take in the PT?
Croatia14: There is not a classic in which I can see PCT Riders winning in PT. Amador will do the job though, plus I can see a lot of breakaway action in the GTs on the horizon. I’m going with 8 wins, and half of them will go to UBS.
jandal: I’ll take double digits with 10 and actually one classic win for EBH despite the strength of PT puncheurs. As Croatia said breakaways are a good option for PCT teams whilst I don’t know the scheduling but I predict 2-4 wins with PCT riders just being better.
AbhishekLFC: In stage races, I can only see Amador and Sicard probably get close. EBH and TVG might sneak in a couple though, one day races depend a lot on how the AI reads the riders and could well turn out in their favour. Nothing in the sprints and cobbles. So I’ll for 4 wins I think, 2 from the big guns and a couple from breakaways.
Who is the first puncheur to beat EBH this season?
knockout: Simone Ponzi in Badaling.
Croatia14: Hehe. On the PCT level I go with Michal Kwiatkowski as the first to snatch a victory away with a brave attack, schooled by good old lieutenant LuLu the Legend.
jandal: Not including PT races () I go with Ulissi actually in a sprint.
AbhishekLFC: I will go against the grain here and say Kump or Ignatiev. Somehow I feel a big season up ahead for them both.
trekbmc: I’m going to go with Kinoshita, the guy dominated last season for a reason and even though he’s not near EBH, I think he’ll manage it on occasion and why not early in the season?
knockout: Picking a PT wildcard is of course too easy but he will meet a lot of PT stars in the PTHC events so someone like Ponzi has to be considered. My pick for a PCT rider: Tejay.
Which U25 rider will hold the white jersey in most stage races for the longest time?
knockout: Merhawi Kudus looks way stronger than Shikai as best U25 stage racer so he is the obvious candidate. I would not rule out Matej Mohoric though as he’s arguably the strongest young puncheur.
Croatia14: Watch out for Caleb Ewan. He looks PCT ready immediately, even though he is not maxed. He might finish on the podium early on several occasions, and thus possibly sneaks into white a couple of times.
jandal: Agree with both points, Ewan is a special talent but Kudus is also very very good. I take Kudus in the end though.
AbhishekLFC: Simon Yates. Lot of love for Podium Ambition here
Can anyone follow Strava and go up back to back?
Croatia14: This goes hand in hand with the question on the best freshly promoted team. For me 2 teams scratching on direct promotion even, Ferrero and Podium Ambition. With disbands possibly even Minions and Kraftwerk with outside chances. But no team will be as high-flying as Strava.
knockout: As mentioned previously I believe that Ferrero can go up. Possibly even by direct promotion.
trekbmc: I’ll disagree, Ferrero will push it close but I think they just won’t quite manage it, Kraftwerk is too specialised and Podium Ambition for the same reasons I mentioned when comparing them to Strava.
jandal: I don’t see any in the top 5 probably but could definitely see Ferrero challenging. I have to agree with trek on his points about Kraftwerk and Podium Ambition and why not, but with the hard-to-predict nature of the PCT I could see them getting promoted in the end anyway.
AbhishekLFC: Ferrero seems most likely. Minions could do it if everything goes perfectly.
Which current PCT team would’ve struggled in CT?
Croatia14: Not the major relegation candidates though. Haute Route maybe with the sprinters peloton last year. I take MOL, because they just have no “winners” in their squad, though di Maggio may would’ve finally had a good time again.
jandal: Can’t see any not promoting so no struggles, I’d say all in title conversation too. Don’t see any struggling too much really, worst would maybe be MOL.
knockout: I also believe that all PCT teams would do rather well immediately. But i believe Netia might be one of the teams that would adapt the worst. They’d only have three scorers in Kwiatek, Vantomme and LLS. Due to race planning issues Kwiatek would most likely be moved to a mountains only schedule which does not benefit his strengths but to use the few RDs LLS and Kwiatek have and the general CT schedule without many hybrid races would hurt the team. The rest of the team would not be point scorers in CT.
trekbmc: I agree with Knockout, our team is completely incapable at being good in the CT. Mostly a lack of race days would hurt us dearly. Otherwise I think Ticos will struggle to promote because despite their massive climbing depth the CT is already super full with climbers and they don’t have options for other terrains.
AbhishekLFC: I’d go with Croatia and Jandal on this one, MOL would probably be lowest in the current CT.
Which current CT team would’ve done best in current PCT?
jandal: I don’t see any of them staying afloat unfortunately though teams such as Kulczyk, In-N-Out and Azteca could be seen as only needing one more top leader and a good amount of support, with Kulczyk anywhere but maybe hills, In-N-Out cobbles or mountains and Azteca even just with Summerhill and his train back. With the squads now, I’ll hazard a guess at In-N-Out maybe surviving or coming higher than 26th at least with Kulczyk not far behind but still bottom, each with their own strengths and approaches. Other top 7 or 8 teams could do well with a bit of dressing up, but not with their current squads. But that’s for next season
Croatia14: For me that is a clear vote for In-n-Out. They have two PCT scorers (if planned well) in RvH and Reus, that would fit to that division even better. From my point of view they would by far score the most in PCT. Other teams could, from my point, only really score via luck or loads of breakaways.
knockout: Also a clear vote for In-n-Out. There is a reason they relegated and would of course be in relegation danger but they have the most PCT ready roster (at least until the declines hit them next season).
trekbmc: I disagree, In-n-Out suffers from back-up stat deficiencies basically everywhere, it’s mostly ok in the CT but with RvH and Reus last year they still went down and the sprinters they have this year won’t improve their situation much. I’d see Azteca as much more likely to compete with Chaves and Squire good Hill/Mountain riders a terrain that’s quite prominent this year and of course Eastman for the mountains.
AbhishekLFC: I’d go for In-n-Out too but even then I don’t think they’d have escaped relegation.
In terms of talents, which teams have the brightest future?
AbhishekLFC: Eritel with Kudus comes to mind immediately. Netia Vonin with Pedersen and Kasperkiewicz and Euskaltel with Novak and Mas not far off. How can I miss the most expensive of them all - Mohoric - for Isostar. Also, Per. Taking the win here perhaps is Lierse with Gaviria, Oomen, Moscon and De Plus!
Croatia14: Lierse build a lot on youth and surely have the quality class of talents (hello Gaviria), but they may pay the price for it. Grieg was a good bet last season, but for them the future is now. I’m not sure whether you can call them talents, but Meiji has two very young maxed leaders that both have 6+ years on full potential left. Podium Ambition may has the most promising one of all in Caleb Ewan. But I like the UBS team too, looking at Dillier, Schelling and Spengler. Netia though maybe with the brightest of all, looking at long lasting captain Kwiatkowski with a lot of training potential and 2 supertalents in Kasperkiewicz and Pedersen.
jandal: Lierse is the obvious pick with good reason with a stacked group of talents. I love the long-term future of Netia with a solid base of talents with prodigies Pedersen and Kapsa as well as home hero Kwiatkowski’s future beast training. Other teams have a couple of talents and to-be-trained young guns including UBS, Isostar, Euskaltel, Podium Ambition also with a class of young talent.
knockout: I also vote for Lierse. Plenty of talents surrounding a future world class sprinter in Gaviria. The interesting question is: Can they survive despite their big focus on talents and if not: Can they keep the talents together?
Taking into account obscurity of nation, which teams are the winners and losers in realism?
jandal: Losers are clearly Podium Ambition. The whole world and they still pick fricken Aussies. Seriously though PCT teams are pretty good on the whole, except MOL really, who do have an acceptable amount of Hungarians just not compared to their mammoth team Indosat maybe could do with a few more Indonesians (not Jams though) but also do well enough. Winners would be Eritel, Berg, Meiji, Haute Route, UBS, really a lot of other teams, too
Croatia14: Agree with you, but have to add Lierse to the list of regional teams. Also SPAR impressed me this offseason, going a little bit more back to the roots. And Valio of course are with the loss of SanCor now the big regional ones. A team that sadly went in the complete other direction was Euskaltel, a shame in my eyes as the approach was really familiar before. Haute Route one of my favourites too.
trekbmc: Meiji impresses me most honestly with a squad composed entirely of four South-East Asian nations. From the ones not mentioned Isostar being committed to Slovenian leaders is quite impressive as well as not a lot of teams can manage to only have leaders from their nation. In general I agree though that many teams did well which is great to see!
AbhishekLFC: I’m surprised no one mentioned Valio!
If you had to take a surprise winner of this offseason, which team would that be?
Croatia14: In my eyes that is the Minions. I couldn’t foresee how they transformed themselves that good from a sketchy promotion team to what looks to be an established PCT squad. Berg Cycles have to be considered that too, after giving Fiedler away with a bang and then acquiring that much compensation.
jandal: I didn’t follow other division transfers too much but I liked the direction and results Berg took, Minions is another surprise with a strong couple of leaders and backup keeping them afloat. Ferrero was a winner promoting but not a surprise, as was Podium Ambition. I will have to take Berg Cycles for this one.
AbhishekLFC: Ferrero and Berg would get my vote.
Edited by Croatia14 on 24-10-2017 19:38
Berg Cycles - Real deal or just a formula favourite?
knockout: I think they are a real deal. They don’t have that one big leader but they have fantastic sub-top depth. Costa and Marquez are both riders that scored 500-600 points last season and look to repeat that. Nazaret, Silvestre, Chiarello, Paulinho, Vogt, Kupfernagel and McEvoy are all riders that should be capable to score over 200 points. Definitely promotion contender for me.
Croatia14: Costa and Marquez are indeed fantastic additions. Whether Marquez can hold his value I’m not too sure though, as he might clash too often with Nazaret. Vogt is still more breaking the team than accelerating it. But besides that they have indeed a fantastic squad, balanced in their weaksides and a strong focus on core races.
jandal: I consider them to be the real deal. I may be biased as a huge Marquez fan but he’s great and Costa is an amazing rider. Vogt and Nazaret may end up bringing them down slightly unfortunately but the depth and strength of this squad is amazing and they’re a clear promotion favourite to me. They don’t have glaring flaws which should help and no rider is really useless.
AbhishekLFC: They have done an incredible job of turning things around in the off-season. The formulas love them and they’re probably the most likely to challenge Orange for the title. Facts about their riders have already been covered by the others, so my answer is that they’re definitely the real deal.
trekbmc: The strategy of double-dipping terrains with two leaders could be genius, Marquez will boost Nazaret and having two strong sprinters will mean they can take a lot of extra stage wins in tours, as they really shouldn’t clash. Also, Costa will shine extremely bright for them, their only real obstacle preventing them from being right at the top is the lack of a really strong leader and the calendar not nearly suiting Costa as much as last year but still almost certain promotion for me.
Berg Cycles
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
Score
AbhishekLFC
8
8
8
1
5
6
58,25
Croatia14
7
8
7
0
4
9
59
knockout
8
7
6
0
4
7
53,5
jandal7
8
8
8
0
6
5
58
trekbmc
8
8
7
0
2
8
58,5
Average
7,8
7,8
7,2
0,2
4,2
7
57,45
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Many riders are nice to have, but who should score the necessary points for Carlsberg?
AbhishekLFC: Appollonio? Nolf? Garby? Well, yes. While they might not necessarily light up the PCT, but they should pick up enough points to help Carlsberg survive. I'm not sure if they're aiming for anything higher this season.
Croatia14: I have no sufficient answer to this. And I am kind of not that optimistic. A lot of the team's depth will suffer under the fact that there are just not enough racedays to play out all the strengths of Carlsberg’s unique lineup. I fear that relegation is more likely than not, if not either Appollonio (brilliant planning) or Nolf (supporting cast) have an outstanding season. But you need one, normally two, really good scorers to survive I’d say.
jandal: Like Croatia I like Carlsberg’s squad but I can’t see them utilising every bit of it. But in saying that I rate Apollonio but he’s 1/5th at most of the needed points with great planning, and that’s probably a bit too high. I also do love Juul-Jensen and hope to see him do well, and Nolf is decent for solid points as well but won’t be too spectacular. I see the potential at Carlsberg for survival through solid points from those big three and more from the supporting cast, especially factoring in Contador/Garby who should make up their share too.
knockout: I see two main scorers: Juul-Jensen and Nolf. Both are not great but should be reliable point scorers. Apollonio is nice as well but he could be that slightly bit too weak to actually score lots of points.
trekbmc: Seems like this team will just rest right on the brink of relegation and a lot of luck will decide which way they lean. Juul-Jensen is much better than he looks with awesome acceleration and both Nolf and Appollonio will score well as decent riders in their terrain, otherwise there’s obviously Garby and a lot of good breakaway riders mixed in there, so overall I reckon their points will be spread over a lot of riders but I’ll go with them just surviving by the skin of their teeth.
Carlsberg
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
4
7
7
6
5
48,75
Croatia14
3
3
5
6
5
4
38
knockout
3
6
6
7
4
3
45,25
jandal7
5
6
7
7
6
4
50,75
trekbmc
5
5
6
6
3
2
43,5
Average
4,2
4,8
6,2
6,6
4,8
3,6
45,25
Compal - Merida
Compal has seven riders with a wage of 150k or more. Which one offers Compal the best value?
Croatia14: Difficult. Jesse Sergent could be the one if he gets lucky in the ITTs, but I doubt it. I think I’d still go with Ki Ho Choi, eventhough he earns more than his strength justifies. Just because he is the only consistent scorer of those.
jandal: I hope for Sergent so Bjartne and I don’t look like idiots for our first hour bidding war! But like Croatia it has to be Choi as their best rider and consistent scorer in stage races.
knockout: I have a hard time to imagine that Sergent will represent the best value of them. He’s simply too one-dimensional to score enough for that. To say it hard: I doubt that anyone of the seven will represent great value but Choi looks like the best option for it. I want to mention Meyer as well. 300k is too much for him as well but he is the one of them that has the best upside to score big if he’s lucky.
AbhishekLFC: I think Meyer will outscore the others. While, Choi and Sergent might be more consistent, Meyer’s specialism in the hills will deliver better results.
trekbmc: Maybe Meyer? Choi is uninspiring but will score a bit as well, don’t see either getting an excessively large tally though, especially as their are better high acceleration puncheurs out there like Juul-Jensen to beat Meyer.
Compal
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
5
5
2
8
3
49
Croatia14
6
3
3
0
6
2
36
knockout
4
5
3
0
8
2
39
jandal7
6
7
8
2
7
3
54
trekbmc
4
4
3
0
4
1
28,5
Average
5,4
4,8
4,4
0,8
6,6
2,2
41,3
Eritel - Sonatrach
Is the 1-2 climbing punch really as good as it looks in first sight?
AbhishekLFC: They're more than just that in my eyes. Tekle, Debesay, Van Heerden and Aferwerki should all be able to pick up points. Will that be enough to challenge for promotion, maybe not, but they have a more than competitive team.
Croatia14: No! While Kudus is definitely an investment for the future, they still suck up loads of the wage cap. And neither Berhane nor Kudus should be able to justify that amount in his race days, especially if they share races. Still, having both is a smart move for an African-only team, thinking of the fact that Kudus will go down in his wages for sure, and opens up loads of training possibilities.
jandal: I like them, especially for the Eritrean team it’s perfect. I want to say yes and I rate both of them but I don’t see the potential, both through the riders themselves and PCM, for them to play out the two pronged option well enough. Great riders though, and will be a great future for the Africans!
knockout: Surely there will be enough races to split them up for the majority of the schedule, especially with Berhane confirmed for ToA already. Berhane looks better on first glance than he really is but the duo should lead them towards the usual 10.-19. place finish.
trekbmc: It’s great to see the Eritreans together on an Eritrean team and Kudus will be amazing eventually. For the mountains this season though, it’s probably not quite the quality it looks when you see two 81 climbers since they really don’t compliment each other by having very similar stats and they both don’t have shining back-ups. That’s not saying they’ll be bad though! Overall it’ll probably be enough to keep their heads above the water - but only just.
Eritel
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
6
8
4
3
4
56,5
Croatia14
7
3
4
3
3
5
38,75
knockout
8
2
7
3
2
3
45,25
jandal7
9
6
7
6
4
5
56,5
trekbmc
7
3
3
2
3
5
37
Average
8
4
5,8
3,6
3
4,4
46,8
Euskaltel
Euskaltel signed seven cobblers late in the free agency after missing out on talents. Will that late change of strategy save them from relegation?
AbhishekLFC: Nope, none of the cobblers are likely to make an impact.
Croatia14:: I can also hardly see the reasoning. They may take some depth points in the compulsory cobbled races. But there is no cobbler that would justify attending cobbled races voluntarily just for them. Instead the loads of money could’ve used on either some more talents or a leader that secures non-relegation. Now stuff will be difficult.
jandal: One of the weirdest transfer moments was seeing these threads go up from LLS throughout the afternoon I don’t see them getting the necessary points. Strava scored with that top 15 depth with podium potential leader(s), not that top 35 depth struggling to break the top 15. The fact they have only 4 non-cobbles riders worse than their best cobbler and 15 better says it all really. 350k is a lot of money and they’ve got a big ass squad anyway. Not the best move.
knockout: I liked the idea of strengthening the roster with someone for the cobbles but i would only have gone with one or two - especially those that can still level up once. But signing two or seven will probably make no difference because there are no points for finishing in PCT and the cobblers that he picked will hardly make a big difference. I’d have tried to spend the money on some transfers instead as some teams still looked to get the last bit of money for their training goals.
trekbmc: I for one admire the creativity of the move, surely nobody was expecting the Basques to lay their claim on the Belgian lower cobbles market! Overall though, the move makes little sense, especially as most these riders would struggle to find a use greater than a weaker domestique for a strong cobbles leader.
Euskaltel
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
6
7
5
6
1
47,25
Croatia14
3
4
4
2
6
5
36
knockout
3
5
3
2
9
2
40
jandal7
6
7
7
5
6
4
51,25
trekbmc
3
4
5
2
5
5
35,5
Average
4
5,2
5,2
3,2
6,4
3,4
42
Fablok - Bank BGZ
Mohs and Guardini in one team. Domination or burden?
AbhishekLFC: Not to forget Lavoine! Their sprinting team looks massive to me. Lavoine will be the one to get lesser chances to lead perhaps. The other two should be set for a good season.
Croatia14: Of course. In my eyes Guardini and Mohs have to be splitted. Guardini's stats do not suggest being the perfect leadout for Mohs. If they’ll sprint together too much then I indeed see a burden: It will lead to the complications we’ve seen pretty often when Dege couldn’t follow Mohs too often. My opinion: If Lavoine is the guy to leadout Mohs and Stepniak for Guardini then everything looks set for an outstanding season, that could well end in direct promotion. If Guardini leads out Mohs then I’d fear a major fail of Fablok that could even lead into finishing outside the first 10.
jandal: Maybe I’m answering these all too late but Croatia is right about the potential for amazing things by splitting the leaders, though I’m not as negative as him about them being together they’re definitely going to reap the rewards apart.
knockout: I also would split them up for the majority of their season but in the few occasions racing together they would dominate.
trekbmc: It’s harder to split them up then it looks though, the calendar doesn’t give many opportunities for them to race separately in pure sprinter races other than the Dutch Food Valley Classic and the Philadelphia clash. Maybe Guardini will race in a few tours with flat stages as well but it’s questionable whether they will be more rewarding than the results he could get after leading out Mohs where he still may finish in the top 10 occasionally or even better, depending on what PCM allows, definitely extremely hard to plan but not a burden - and if they make it to the PT will be a huge advantage to already have a top level sprinting squad!
Fablok
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
3
8
10
1
6
2
55,75
Croatia14
2
9
10
0
2
3
53,5
knockout
3
9
10
0
1
7
59
jandal7
4
8
10
1
5
5
57,25
trekbmc
2
8
10
0
2
7
55
Average
2,8
8,4
10
0,4
3,2
4,8
56,1
Ferrero - Samruk
Can Ignatiev lead Ferrero to back-to-back promotion despite the big calendar cut?
AbhishekLFC: I've already tipped Ignatiev to have a big season and I'm sticking to that. However, I don't think they'll have enough elsewhere to get direct promotion.
Croatia14: Don’t forget that Ignatiev had an awful last season on PT level. While he still is a contender, he may not be the magician he looks like. Whether he goes back to attacking races aggressively or not will decide on where he lands at the end of the day. I wouldn’t be surprised if Henao is Ferreros top scorer this year. We’ll see whether it’s enough for promotion. Disband promotion is very much in reach I’d say, especially looking as Spilak’s proven brilliant planning skills.
jandal: Ferrero could very much pull promotion out of the bag and I think Ignatiev is a great rider, especially if he takes the race to the pure TTers, or puncheurs, or whoever he’s trying to upset for the win. He’s got the skills to pay the bills, but 450k and a leader-shaped hole in their points total is a big old bill to pay if he misfires. But I do believe he’ll have a great season and Ferrero can too.
knockout: Yes. But it isn't only him. Ignatiev, Henao, Barbin, Kolesnikov, Modolo and Palini are all great riders to have and can lead the team to promotion.
trekbmc: Last year they’d be a surety for automatic promotion as Ignatiev would dominate hilly tours with a time trial. This year, there’s only two races that fit that description but they clash and likely aren’t as hilly as he would’ve hoped. Obviously Henao is great though and could be the key to their success and I love Kolesnikov. Then promotion, or automatic promotion at least, may come down to their remaining riders, Modolo is a cool rider but not necessarily certain and after owning Palini last season, I wouldn’t have the highest expectations, to say the least for him and Barbin. I’d say a top 10 is on the cards but they could definitely make it to back-to-back promotion and are the favourites to do so.
Ferrero
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
6
4
2
7
4
49,5
Croatia14
8
4
1
0
5
9
49,5
knockout
8
7
2
1
7
8
54,75
jandal7
8
6
5
1
7
7
52,75
trekbmc
8
5
2
0
5
8
49,5
Average
8
5,6
2,8
0,8
6,2
7,2
51,2
Generali - EDF
Has Generali still the best TTT line-up?
Croatia14: From my point of view it will be more of a 3-way battle. Grieg vs. Generali was expected, though both got a little weaker. That may be the chance for Team UBS, that massively strengthened their squad in that hindsight. Still it’s slightly Generali = Grieg > UBS. After that it’s far open, even for teams like Isostar or the strong CT set-up of Cycle Yorkshire.
jandal: For my money they do, but not by much. I don’t rate Grieg too far behind Matt’s merry men, in fact it wouldn’t shock me if they were better in the end. UBS could challenge as well whilst Isostar and Newton aren’t far behind and can always mix it up too.
trekbmc: I don't think there's really any #1. Generali, UBS and Grieg are so close that PCM randomness will likely decide rather than actually being the stronger team. The thing I generally like about Generali though is that their squad is the most even which I think will benefit them as the strongest riders are least likely to drop the weak. So I'll pick them as the best TTT team but by only a sliver of a margin.
Croatia14: I want to disagree with the randomness point here. TTTs have been decently balanced in last season, with very reasonable outcomes. If Amador was a thing in the TTTs I’d have said UBS may got them, now it’s Generali due to the EBH sales of Grieg.
knockout: I’d say it’s very close between Generali and Grieg and will depend a lot on whether a real leader will have to be fitted into the line-ups.
Generali
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
7
5
8
10
5
58,5
Croatia14
4
6
1
6
9
8
53
knockout
6
7
0
6
9
7
53
jandal7
6
8
3
7
10
6
59,25
trekbmc
2
7
2
6
9
10
58
Average
4,6
7
2,2
6,6
9,4
7,2
56,35
Grieg Eftel
Grieg gave up on a lot for Eddy the Great. Too much?
AbhishekLFC: EBH and Wisniowski. Hill and cobbles. Now where have we heard that combination being successful before?
knockout: Surely you mean promotion heroes Tom Boonen and Luis Leon Sanchez of the 2015 Evonik team?
I like the move. The move will hurt them for the upcoming season but they should still be strong enough to promote and then they have an amazing head start ahead of other promoting teams with two great leaders to keep or sell. Therefore it maximizes their chances to do well in the 2018 till 2020 PT seasons.
Croatia14: That is true. If they hit promotion, which is very likely, the move was amazing. But if they don’t there is almost no room for improvement left in the next couple of years. Giving up on Juul-Jensen and Guardini for that is painful, but from my point of view very much reasonable. Losing the strength in their TT squad though was a little bit unnecessary and could hurt them in return later. Also missing some cobbled domestiques should really hurt team. I’d have preferred to, if it was my team, keep Trentin, train Wisniowski +2 cobbles and building some cobbled depth to completely dominate there and build on that + TTT + Guarnieri. But, especially for a Norwegian team, Edvald is a no-brainer.
jandal: Maybe. Probably not. All points raised, the giving away of great riders, the promotion, the 85 hill, all very valid I can see it being great for Grieg, tough choice and there will always be “what ifs” but it has worked out pretty well for them and could prove to be amazing.
trekbmc: If I could sign a national hero who’s also one of the best puncheurs in the world, I would. Wisniowski and Rowe on the cobbles will be good as well and the Pole would probably be the best rider on a good portion of teams, then they have a great TTT squad and good support everywhere else, from an objective point of view, I love that they got Eddy and think he was the best possible choice for a Norwegian team.
Did the regional focus block the potential of Haute Route - Mavic?
jandal: It’s hard to say. Belgium, France and Africa are strong regions but still they were tightly bound to them and maybe with the exception of Belgium (which is where they got a lot of their riders from) there wasn’t much going for a newly promoted team this year. So long run I don’t think it will but it may have this time.
Croatia14: Regional Focus never hurts the MG. And in the special case of Haute Route I don’t think it did either. They only started with, let’s call it “bad luck”, signing Pinot for a high price, so that they had to rely on FAs from then on. Losing out on Cav and Kudus surely didn’t help their confidence on their market, and made transfer season a huge stretch. Damage limitation worked well with Keukeleire and van der Sande, which have been decent pick ups that late in the transfer season. Still, a very tough season ahead, but not majorly due to regional boundaries.
knockout: A strong regional focus on rather obscure regions will nearly always harm the competitiveness of a team at least slightly and so it did for Haute as they have plenty of mediocre riders on the bottom of the roster list that don’t really strengthen the team in any way. They have a fine duo of sprinters but in the end it will depend on Levarlet and Pinot whether they’ll return to CT.
AbhishekLFC: Yes it does hurt them, for similar reasons mentioned by Knockout. Pinot and Keukeleire are good, but who will score besides them? Levarlet is very strong on the hills, but that low acc will hurt.
trekbmc: It goes both ways for me, if you’re picking regions like Belgium and France you can hardly say that you’ve been blocked but then the remainder of the squad being African does limit them a little, although it’s really cool to see! Unfortunately at the top, Pinot and Levarlet aren’t really that good and while Keukeleire is cool and I hate Van der Sande (train-stealer better not be racing Dunkerque ) so I’d say that they would struggle to stay afloat, if not for one shining beacon - Bakari! The team will win the division.
Haute Route
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
7
7
8
5
2
56,5
Croatia14
3
2
5
1
1
5
30,25
knockout
5
3
7
1
1
3
37,75
jandal7
6
5
8
2
4
2
47
trekbmc
5
5
6
1
3
4
39,25
Average
5,2
4,4
6,6
2,6
2,8
3,2
42,15
Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ
3 strong leaders - still not more than a solid PCT team?
AbhishekLFC: I disagree. They will be up there scrapping for promotion. Top 10 at least looks very achievable.
jandal: I’d put them above average and in the promotion, certainly disband-promotion, conversation. Intxausti knows how to dissapoint but is a very good rider nevertheless, whilst Goss is a former WC still at the top of his game and a dangerous sprinter. Anuar Aziz is pretty good too. They could slip into solid PCT team mid-table territory, I see how it could go. But top 10, as Abhishek says, is very much achievable.
Croatia14: At least they upgraded from Zaini, what was the first step into the right direction.Replacing him with Goss surely brings in some points. But apart from that the team hasn’t changed too much. Moser is not really a significant scorer, same for Speirs or Colbrelli. Add a Top10 Sprinter for a Top20 Puncheur, but see your hilly leader scoring a lot less due to a very strong hill class this year. That adds up to a team that has some solid results, but no significant improvement. I don’t see why they should finish higher than last year.
knockout: Solid is the right word for this team. They won’t have anything to do with direct promotion or relegation because they are solid in every way. Solid but not special leaders, solid but not special support. “Boring” upper mid table finish incoming.
trekbmc: I almost wanted to predict this team first somewhere. Intxausti is obviously pretty great, Anuar Aziz is good and Goss makes my stomach hurt by being Vantomme but very slightly better. I think they’ll exceed expectations and fluke disband promotion, am I wrong - certainly! But that’s what I feel so I’m going with it.
Indosat
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
8
9
2
5
2
62,5
Croatia14
8
6
6
0
1
1
45
knockout
8
4
8
0
1
3
49
jandal7
9
7
9
1
4
2
59,75
trekbmc
8
7
7
1
2
7
55,25
Average
8,4
6,4
7,8
0,8
2,6
3
54,3
Isostar - Adriatic
Is the “Slovenia first” focus of Isostar really a smart strategy as newly promoted team?
AbhishekLFC: It does hurt them but I admire them for it. Slovenia isn't the biggest talent pool out there and a couple of the better known ones are yet to fully develop. It is a smart strategy to be future ready. It might be a hard grind this year in PCT though. If they manage to survive, which I think they will, they'll be PT promotion ready in 2, maybe even the next year.
Croatia14: That’s a little bit of a question between role play and power. I know the team could’ve looked better with different moves for similarly good/better riders that would’ve been cheaper to finance if they were different riders. Thus team quality suffers, but stuff like the HQ and role play is nicer to balance. Like that we decided to not go for the back to back challenge, but instead to build for the future and try to not relegate again. And if so, we may see a full Slovenian CT squad next year (and that said I forgot about Laas)...
trekbmc: Course it is! Although I just think that because having all national leaders is something that I think should be a goal for any team, so I applaud them for it. It’s also a good enough batch of riders that they’ll survive relegation without being over worried and next year we can all look on in envy at a maxed-out Mohoric and maybe either Kump trained to be even more amazing, or Polanc given the cobble stat to be up there with the best cobbles. I look forward to seeing it, although I fear having to race against them.
Isostar
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
6
8
5
8
4
53,75
Croatia14
3
3
2
3
5
10
40,75
knockout
5
7
4
7
7
10
57,75
jandal7
6
7
8
5
8
6
56,75
trekbmc
5
5
5
4
3
9
46,5
Average
4,8
5,6
5,4
4,8
6,2
7,8
51,1
Kraftwerk Man Machine
Kraftwerk sold most of their promotion heroes. Is that the best way to success after a promotion?
jandal: There is no right and wrong and it depends on your plans and said heroes. That is the most copout lazy answer possible but it’s the truth. Let’s see Podium Ambition and Kraftwerk. The sprinters and Thomas at Podium Ambition adapted naturally into a solid train and a fantastic lieutenant for the new cobbled focus respectively, whilst Yates would never go as an unmaxed rider. At Kraftwerk I don’t see Klemme as a PCT top leader (hi, Novatek!), neither Hacecky. Stauff is a bit more debatable. And yes, all would be great to have with the new trio but also not the easiest to plan and the money was needed. Both ways look to have worked for them and made sense.
Croatia14: Well jandal, Stauff never was the property of Kraftwerk. Klemme and Hacecky are nice riders to have, but none that keeps you in the division. You can argue that Kiserlovski isn’t either, but he is definitely an upgrade. And a guy who is is Mark Cavendish. What a signing! A rider that should ensure you safety and a big amount of secure points, even with a CT leadout. Besides the big 3 several riders were kept anyway, which definitely won’t hurt Kraftwerk. And Flügel also is a consistent leader, who, despite not quite being a Top5 puncheur for me, will make this offseason a full success and lead Kraftwerk into safe figures. In the case of Kraftwerk they definitely took the right decisions.
knockout: I’d also say that the transfers are a full success for Kraftwerk. In most cases selling the leaders is indeed easier for transforming the roster into being worthy for the higher level but it of course depends on the leader as someone like mentioned Geraint Thomas is of course also good on the next level. But in the case of Kraftwerk that was imo the right decision and will lead them near a top ten finish.
trekbmc: Have to agree with the others here, Klemme and Hacecky aren’t deserving of being full-on PCT leaders, so Cavendish and Flugel were great replacements, as very strong riders, even if the team lacks other leaders aside from Kiserlovski as a special low acceleration climber.
Kraftwerk
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
8
8
4
5
3
55
Croatia14
3
6
9
1
1
5
47,25
knockout
4
7
9
2
1
3
49,5
jandal7
6
8
8
5
4
4
55,25
trekbmc
4
7
8
2
1
3
47
Average
4,6
7,2
8,4
2,8
2,4
3,6
50,8
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Lierse is preparing for the long run with their talent focus. When will Lierse’s time to attack the promotion to ProTour come?
AbhishekLFC: They need to stave off relegation first! If they do survive, which I don't see happening, it'll take them a good 2-3 years with the current base of riders to challenge for promotion. Things can change in the transfer windows though.
Croatia14: 2 years. And that is independent on whether they are relegating or not. Vanbilsen and van Asbroeck are great, though the later may need a sprint training before being outstanding. The future is now when Gaviria is trained fully.
AbhishekLFC: Wait! So if they go down, you’re tipping them for back to back promotions? Bold prediction I must say…
knockout: I’d also say it’s when Gaviria is maxed which should be the case for the 2019 season. 2020 when they relegate this season which will be a very close fight.
jandal: I love a good talent focused team and Lierse is great at what they do. I give it three seasons, I say it’s promotion 2019 PT 2020. If not then definitely the next year. Without signing some more established leaders and some big transfer seasons I don’t see it being PT before 2020 for them.
trekbmc: They’ll have to keep afloat this season, although I reckon they’ll just manage that, in 2 or 3 seasons time though they’ll have so many amazing riders that they can make a really good shot at it! Love to watch the team though, it’s amazing to see that many talents together.
Lierse
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
4
6
8
7
2
3
50,75
Croatia14
0
3
5
9
0
4
41,25
knockout
1
4
5
7
0
5
39,75
jandal7
3
6
8
8
1
3
51,5
trekbmc
1
5
6
7
0
5
43,75
Average
1,8
4,8
6,4
7,6
0,6
4
45,4
Meiji - JR East
Has Meiji stayed too quiet in their offseason to make a step forward?
Croatia14: Yep. They have a young core, that will get even better when the Kuroeda brothers come back. And while they may like a year in PCT, the potential for so much more is there. But this potential won’t be reached by wasting your money on sloppy climber Shikai. Brining in Zaini should also not really turn the point, while he’s a decent asset for Kinoshita he is more of an under- than an overperformer. Bringing in leaders for any type of flatter terrain was a chance that was missed by the team, at least when they decided to open their national focus for Zaini.
knockout: I agree that Zaini isnt the addition the team needed to attack the top five. It’s still a one-leader-team with Shikai as option B and that should not be enough for anything more than a finish on the border of the top ten.
AbhishekLFC: Yes, just inside or just outside the top 10 is where I’d put them too. Shikai with higher acc might have put them a couple of places higher.
jandal: Yeah not much more to add here. Not the progress Meiji need or deserve right now. A rider like Zaini is nice to have but not what they needed probably. In saying that I do see them top 10 and may disband promote anyway. I do like their future though, but Shikai doesn’t have enough ability to punch above the other 81-ers, nevermind challenge Uran, etc, Kinoshita is great but will suffer from the new arrivals a bit and I don’t mind fatty Itami for his sprinting at least but he isn’t going to bring them close enough.
trekbmc: Kinoshita may have signed for a bit more than they would like and that probably may have made it hard to move a lot, although he’s worth the cost. They were also probably restricted by Shikai’s high wage too, which he definitely doesn’t deserve. however next season their young riders will be better and they’ll probably have a little more room to move and sign the extra leader they need to make a bid for promotion.
Meiji
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
8
8
2
7
3
59,5
Croatia14
4
9
4
0
3
4
42,5
knockout
4
9
6
0
4
4
47,5
jandal7
8
8
9
1
7
3
61,75
trekbmc
6
9
7
0
3
6
55
Average
6
8,6
6,8
0,6
4,8
4
53,25
Minions
2 Colombian leaders paid with plenty of bananas. Can the Minions keep their successful attacking style under rising pressure?
AbhishekLFC: Attacking or not, the Minions are one of the PCT success stories of the transfer window and a dark horse for promotion for me.
knockout: Well, Dark horse for promotion is too optimistic for me. They could strengthen their roster well with new leaders but Uran is the only very strong rider. Betancourt and Albert are only sub-top while Drapac is no PCT leader. They are in a position where they can attack a lot because they don’t have the leaders that will demand working in front of the peloton all the time but whether they’ll do? No idea.
Croatia14: I agree with knockout, Though, Betancur is a Top10-15 puncheur, which will make him decent, and Uran scores everywhere he goes really well (if planning is not screwed up royally). And having a Top5 stage racer normally almost certainly guarantees you non relegation. Everything on top is a bonus. The sprinters aren’t, despite the fact that PCM for strange reasons liked them a lot last year. The attackers really are though. Martinez has the perfect stage hunting stats if he rides complementary to Uran. Add Selander, Weiss, Kinney and also Dehaes and you have a really aggressive outlook that can surf the waves of attacking like they did last season. And who knows, with outstanding luck maybe towards disband promotion?
jandal: Uran and Betancourt (seriously why did people think this was how to spell it ) are good leaders, mostly the former but Betancur (and Albert) are decent subtop leaders too. Their attacking style should remain, Martinez is great and Selander, Dehaes and Kinney should carry the Minions spirit especially with aggressive riding.
trekbmc: Don’t think they’ll be one of the most attacking teams any more, their leaders will block a lot of attacks and probably not be overly aggressive (first time I’ve made a bunch of good leaders sound like a bad thing!) is still a cool squad though with both Uran and Betancourt and they make a nice effort to cover all terrains, so they’ll score across the board and get a consistent finish in the rankings.
Minions
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
7
6
6
4
55,5
Croatia14
8
5
3
3
1
3
40,75
knockout
7
5
1
5
2
4
40,75
jandal7
8
8
7
6
5
4
58
trekbmc
8
7
3
4
2
6
50
Average
7,8
6,4
4,2
4,8
3,2
4,2
49
MOL - OMV Petrom
If you had 10 acceleration points left to add to any riders of the team, with the target to avoid relegation with them, who would receive those?
knockout: Pieter Serry. With 79 Acceleration he would be a very dangerous rider for the hills. He lacks the energy stat to be a great but the combination of mo, hi and acc would make him very interesting. Alternative: Kobe Vanoverschelde who would immediately turn into a strong sprinter.
Croatia14: If I need to pick one rider, that is definitely Sergey Pomoshnikov. He could do some real damage with his then perfect attacking stats and outstanding back-ups. If I could share, then give 3 to Serry, 3 to Kobe and 4 to Pomoshnikov. Di Maggio on 85 acc would also be a tempting idea though.
AbhishekLFC: I’d have split the points up between Serry and Vanoverschelde, 7:3. A 7 point acc increase for Serry would make him a lite version of Kwiatkowski, and he would be able to attack on the hills with more ferocity. Having Vanoverschelde at 78 make him a powerhouse sprinter on the flats, which he needs to be given his low-ish hill stat. That way, they would cover two terrains. If I had to choose just one rider, I would choose Pomoshnikov too.
knockout: I don't think Pomoshnikov would be that much better with the added acceleration.
jandal: There is room to have fun with this (there would be for anyone) but practically it’s Serry of course. Pomoshnikov would look damn sexy with 76 acc though. But Serry would reap much more rewards than Vanoverschelde, though I don’t mind Abhishek’s idea of a 7:3 split if possible.
trekbmc: A lot of managers would probably kill for a bonus 10 acceleration, there are so many riders it could make so special, unlike MOL where there’s just a lot of deficiencies to correct. First off I really don’t understand the Pomoshnikov love, I agree with Knockout there. Otherwise as other’s said Serry would be the most cool as an awesome attacking rider in the hills with good mountain back-ups or even giving them to Varga or Manakov so they would max out with an amazing flat/acc combination. However if I was really aiming to avoid relegation I’d probably give Di Maggio 5 points, which would probably vault him back up amongst the OP puncheurs despite a few other low back-ups, at least for races like Milano - Torino. And the other 5 to Vanoverschelde to make him an actually decent sprinter, then they might be a fair shot closer to being safe this season.
Will Kwiatek score even better than Netia hero Luis Leon Sanchez last season?
Croatia14: Definitely not. Luis Leon Sanchez is one of a kind, and he raced like that last year. Kwiatkowski will also be great, but not on the level of Sanchez. He reminds me of Roche last year, who was great, but not over the moon. Kwiatek will make an impact, but not the overwhelming one his manager may hope for. Remember that the calendar changes don’t really help Kwiatek. It should be enough to ensure that the team does not relegate though, especially as they still have good old LuLu himself.
knockout: I agree that Kwiatek should ensure avoiding relegation. I believe the stats of Kwiatek are better than LLS’s stats were last season but LLS outperformed his brilliant stats so i think he will get close but will not fully reach those 966 points from last season.
jandal: No he won’t, LLS outperformed amazingly last season for that top 5 but Kwiatek won’t hit those heights despite great stats. The duo should keep them afloat, I agree.
trekbmc: It’s hard to talk about my own team really. But for what it’s worth I’ve already thought about this quite a bit and really think that LLS was better for last season and Kwiatek will be better for this season. This season has not a single race for puncheurs with a time trial, which is exactly the sort of race the LLS was suited too, while most the hilly tours with a mountain remain, which suits Kwiatek better. A big source of Sanchez’s points last season were in hilly classics though and it’s tough to know if Kwiatek will be able to perform similarly in them, he actually has a pretty similar statset though, with slightly more Hl, Mo and Acc but slightly less Res, Flat and Sta. Overall though, I realise there’s no way he’ll do what LLS did last season but could you reliably expect anybody too?
Netia
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
7
7
3
4
5
49,75
Croatia14
1
6
5
1
1
9
42,25
knockout
2
8
6
1
1
8
48,25
jandal7
4
7
7
2
3
8
50,5
trekbmc
2
7
7
1
1
9
49,25
Average
3
7
6,4
1,6
2
7,8
48
Newton Foundation
The roster remained largely similar to last season. Will that be enough to bounce back to PT?
Croatia14: It’s not that easy. The team should be strong enough. But was training Fraile really the right decision? From my point of view, if they build on training it should’ve been Alexey Tsatevich, who has the potential of scoring big time on the odd hilly cobbled races. Now there’ll be questions asked about that. Still, the team coure is too good to not make it, though TvG will be the one that hated the appearance of Eddy the most. While they did some smart moves on the market to strengthen their depth, a strong TT leader wouldn’t have been the worst of additions to make promotion a safe thing.
AbhishekLFC: They will be in the mix, but I think they’ll just miss out owing to the lack of a leading stage racer and a sprinter who can hang ten on the climbs.
knockout: Yes, it might get close but ultimately, i think they did not need any additions to their roster for bouncing back. Tejay was overshadowed by the arrival of EBH in PCT but he will perform massively. A nice classic duo and a duo of stage racers who might not shine much but will get the job done on pct level is all it needs to get a top seven finish which in most years is enough to promote back to pt.
jandal: It’s a shame that EBH arrived for them and I don’t see Fraile making the impact that a different trained rider could have but TVG is still quality, Altur too. Warbasse won’t be in the spotlight but will pick up some points, and Tsatevich is awesome and you never know how well he could do. I think they’ll find themselves in PT next season.
trekbmc: They’ll have to have a few overperformers for automatic promotion, but I see them as a likely option to make disband promotions. TVG should still be one of the best puncheurs and Altur is a good cobbles rider. I absolutely love Tsatevich as well for hilly cobbles plus they have a few options for extra points in guys like Warbasse, A solid team but quite at the very top level for me.
Newton
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
5
8
7
7
8
6
57,75
Croatia14
2
9
4
5
6
9
55,75
knockout
3
9
2
5
8
9
57,25
jandal7
5
9
6
7
7
6
56,75
trekbmc
3
9
5
6
4
8
55
Average
3,6
8,8
4,8
6
6,6
7,6
56,5
Novatek-Panarmenian.net
Did the late Ratiy-Klemme trade save Novatek?
Croatia14: Yep. Especially as it allowed the signing of Fabio Duarte, who is a brilliant climber for himself. Klemme is not the proudest of scorers, but still good for sneaking some. And, that is the major thing, won’t clash with Duarte as Ratiy would’ve done. Novatek won that trade 100%, and now look like a solid PCT outlook even without having a leader, but being very well balanced.
knockout: They clearly won the trade but is it enough to avoid relegation? I’m not so sure. I believe they will be in the battle until September at least but in the end, i guess they will be above the red line. Even if it may be close.
AbhishekLFC: They should safely finish in mid-table I think. They have leaders in every terrain to keep plugging away at points throughout the season.
jandal: I go back and forth on Novatek from surprise relegation battlers to safely safe. Klemme isn’t great but better than Ratiy and as Croatia says Duarte is good for them as well.
trekbmc: Klemme really seems like an addition to the list of sorta leader riders this team has but certainly a better option than Ratiy. Still Novatek seems to have Holloway as a good rider but Duarte, Klemme, Sibilla and Ford are all guys I’m unsure of, I guess with so many guys like that though they’ll survive in the end.
Novatek
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
8
8
7
3
58,5
Croatia14
4
3
6
2
4
4
35
knockout
5
3
7
2
7
1
44
jandal7
6
5
8
4
7
4
51,5
trekbmc
5
4
8
5
6
5
47,75
Average
5,4
4,2
7,4
4,2
6,2
3,4
47,35
Orange Pro Cycling
Is any team close to reach out to beat Orange?
Croatia14: Yes! In my eyes Orange is overestimated on several terrains. Still, they should have no problems to promote. But Kamyshev is a shaky leader, Schreurs and Kennaugh (leadout!) with their competition look better than they are and Quintana is not the biggest of scorers, and shouldn’t find many races to score points. Other teams like Generali can challenge them with a great well-planned season
AbhishekLFC: For me, UBS, Berg and maybe Eritel could challenge them, but it would need very good planning and a bit of luck. It is not a given as the formulas seem to state, but Orange are definitely the benchmark.
trekbmc: Definitely but not easily, looking closely at Berg who I predicted above earlier, I'm not as sure they'll manage it but then teams like Generali with a strong TT squad, Ulissi and Roglic and Fablok with Froome, way too many good sprinters and Roche could both make the jump with smart planning, maybe Meiji too if they are exceptional. Orange has Sicard who is amazing but otherwise isn't as great as look, Schruers has tough competition, Quintana lacks acceleration and Kamyshev lacks back-ups all round, so they really aren't as good as they look and can be challenged.
knockout: Yes! I expect Quintana and Kamyshev to perform badly. I think it is not unrealistic that the two combine for less than 600 points. That leaves them with Schreurs, Kennaugh and of course Sicard as good leaders. That still makes them favourites for the title but the gap to the next teams (Berg, Grieg, Fablok, etc) is small. I expect a close season at the top.
jandal: Perhaps not as easily as some of the others here but yes of course they are not untouchable. Kamyshev is dangerously one note in a strong division, Quintana isn’t that bad but I don’t see him scoring too much and won’t give himself opportunities with that ACC, especially with resources going towards Sicard. Schreurs, Kennaugh and definitely Sicard are good leaders but none can dominate. They are still all good riders with decent if not insane support. They are the favourites but I see no reason why Berg, Fablok and the like can’t step up their game to Orange and make it a very interesting title fight.
Orange
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
7
7
7
8
2
58,75
Croatia14
10
6
6
4
4
0
54
knockout
9
6
7
4
7
3
57
jandal7
9
8
7
5
6
2
60,25
trekbmc
8
8
8
5
5
7
60,25
Average
8,8
7
7
5
6
2,8
58,05
Podium Ambition
Is Podium Ambition an obscure copy of Strava 2016?
Croatia14: Definitely yes. The cobbled focus, 2 sprinters that are not top class but will score decent points. A minor hill class that will make be not as strong as Stravas, but Talansky as a joker instead. The supporting cast doesn’t as strong, even though they tried. So yes, in my eyes they build their squad aligned to Strava's success.
jandal: Good points Croatia and I see it a bit more now. But honestly they don’t have the same depth of quality on cobbles and are more spread out with the sprint train. Yates and Talansky are wildcards on the hills and mountains in the Strava style but I think despite the cobbled focus they are different to Strava in the rest of their team and the cobbled focus being smaller. Though inspiration is definitely there and they are very strong on the pave. As you said perfectly the supporting cast isn’t as strong
knockout: I can see why someone would say that but i don't see it that way. They went all in on cobbles where they tried to be the top dog instead of the challenger through great depth like Strava. Having lots of sprinters has been one of the traits of Podium Ambition for years - even when Strava as a cycling team did not exist yet. And their hill set-up is in no way reminiscent to them. No copy. Just Podium Ambition.
trekbmc: Not really, Podium Ambition killed it on the cobbles, got some top level sprinters and then just made a vague attempt at climbing in Talansky, who I think will underperform a bit, at least for the 350k price tag. Strava's key to success was having so many useful riders, obviously at the top they had Baugnies but then they had a group of outsider leaders: van der Sande, Gilbert, Roux, Vanendert, Langeveld and below that everybody was capable, they could take a few points here and there and be good domestiques. Podium Ambition is more based on a few riders and more specialised, they'll get more podiums but they won't be the same or promote come the end of the year.
Podium Girls
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
6
5
9
9
3
3
59,25
Croatia14
3
1
8
10
0
4
51,5
knockout
3
1
7
10
0
3
48
jandal7
4
2
8
9
1
4
51,25
trekbmc
3
2
7
10
1
5
50,5
Average
3,8
2,2
7,8
9,6
1
3,8
52,1
SPAR - Shimano - SCG
3 clear leaders with standout main stats - Do you trust the shiny pinata?
Croatia14: I trust it. Eventhough I may say something unpopular here: Daniel is the one that looks better than he is the most. If Denifl takes as many PTHC races as possible and the big HC races he’ll score big time. Guerao is the solid Top5 sprinter that will bring consistency but no wins. Daniel though may suffer under lacking the acceleration to follow the best of the best and then use his handy sprint stat. For me they are one +2 hill stat training for Moazemi away from save disband promotion, now they’ll have to stretch themselves for that.
knockout: They would need to stretch themselves a lot. SPAR definitely improved but i feel like you overrate them. I agree that Daniel is overrated due to lack of acc and flat stats but i’d also say that the other four top riders are overrated.
AbhishekLFC: It is incredible to me, at first glance, how Denifl doesn’t win more races. If that continues, there is no way SPAR will promote. There is enough depth to ensure mid-table and maybe a little higher finish, but promotion looks highly unlikely.
jandal: Top half should be fine, honestly I think Daniel’s a great leader on the cobbles, Denifl underperforms for his main stat but is good enough and Guerao should be fine for bringing in solid points. I didn’t consider it but I agree with Croatia that Moazemi 80 hill would seal the deal for a purely leader-earned top 7 or 8, along with the occasional points from the rest of the squad (would love to see Boonra score some from breakaways) and also Alexandr “the one that sprints” Nepom. Top 10 should be achievable nevertheless Boonratana Thanakorn
trekbmc: It’s a team I love and I’m not entirely sure why, Denifl is like Krasnoperov in the CT but back when the CT was a bit worse and Krasno could still do okay, plus Denifl actually knows what a back-up is [Citation Needed]. Daniel is a guy I really like with a strong cobble stat but being all-round good and able to sprint but honestly I get the feeling he won’t quite perform near the level he really should with those stats. Guerao of course is a pretty good fatty sprinter who somehow won Berner Rundfahrt, which I’m sure doesn’t make sense. Of course, there’s the great Nepom, who I’m really glad never clashes with the Nemiroff one because I can’t tell them apart, despite this one being a good cobbles guy.
SPAR
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
8
6
8
7
4
4
57,75
Croatia14
8
2
6
5
0
3
45,25
knockout
7
3
7
4
1
7
48,5
jandal7
8
3
7
8
2
3
53
trekbmc
8
4
7
6
1
6
53
Average
7,8
3,6
7
6
1,6
4,6
51,5
Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
Does one-terrain focus offer a survival possibility for the Ticos?
knockout: There is always a possibility for survival but it will be very hard. Relegation also depends on breakaway luck and Ticos need a lot of it to survive as they look more like one of those CT teams completely focussing on the mountains.
Croatia14: That may sound too harsh here, but in my eyes Ticos are the only team that should have absolutely no chance. I like their approach, and credits to them, but they are one Uran/Henao/Amador away from surviving. There is no possibility to score from anything but breakaways outside of the mountain races. And even there, their best climber is only a Top15-20 climber. Amazing depth on one terrain can’t keep you up.
AbhishekLFC: They will end up below 20th, that looks certain. Whether they’ll end up relegating will depend on luck and PCM!
jandal: I don’t see Ticos surviving but of course it’s a possibility. The depth is very nice and I like Barguil but it’s missing the Uran+ guy on top or an Eritrel-esqe duo (and maybe Guillen being not terrible) to ensure safety really.
trekbmc: Maybe if they actually had a top leader in the mountains but really they are relying on 5 CT leaders all from the same terrain plus Guillen who’s known for being inconsistent, relegation looks pretty likely for me unfortunately..
Ticos
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
7
6
7
2
4
2
48,5
Croatia14
8
1
1
0
1
2
27
knockout
7
2
2
0
1
3
29,5
jandal7
9
4
4
0
3
3
41,5
trekbmc
6
1
5
0
2
4
34
Average
7,4
2,8
3,8
0,4
2,2
2,8
36,1
Team UBS
Reichenbach, Schelling, Aregger and Reinhardt - 4 Regional upgrades: To head up high again, or safety policy for the after-Amador tristesse?
Croatia14: A little bit of both. While their squad is not in full attacking mode right now, they could be next year to use the last shot of Amador on full strength to go for promotion. But their plans look after that. When Amador starts to decline, Spengler will be there as an 82 cobbles rider, and they built a great squad of regional PCT scorers around him. And there we come to the problem: The 4 mentioned are all nice assets, but none is PT ready. And non has outstanding training potential really. It seems for me as if they’d already plan for a long lasting PCT stand, with a PT intermezzo to even strengthen the core in 2019.
knockout: Nice assets, but not PT ready is a good way to describe them. UBS sits in a weird situation: Not quite good enough to promote although close but also not enough wage cap to change that a lot. Perhaps it is time to sell Amador and get two new leaders that can guarantee promotion for that wage?
AbhishekLFC: You guys really think they have no chance to promote? They look a certainty to me! Although this might just be rookie talk
jandal: I’ll join Abhishek in the “they’ll promote” camp but tentatively: they are missing the aggressive power or the next leader to make it certain. Unfortunately excluding Reinhardt the four home riders are sweet-to-have but missing the skills or attacking potential to make a big dent just yet. Spengler of course is also coming through and will be great in time. I’m not sure if PT is necessary for the plan but could help and I feel like it could come.
trekbmc: It’s a nice commitment to their nationality and all a pretty cool riders who just seems to be missing that extra one or two stats to be a high-scoring rider, particularly Reinhardt and Schelling who with 2 extra in their main stat would both because very strong riders. For now though it’s some nice riders behind Amador but don’t think it’s quite enough for the promotion bid, at least not automatic.
UBS
Mountains
Hills
Sprints
Cobbles
Time Trials
Hybrids
AbhishekLFC
9
7
6
5
8
4
59,25
Croatia14
10
2
4
1
9
2
52,25
knockout
10
5
4
1
9
6
58,75
jandal7
9
7
6
3
8
2
58,75
trekbmc
10
5
6
3
7
3
56,25
Average
9,6
5,2
5,2
2,6
8,2
3,4
57,05
Valio - DeLaval
Valio - De Laval - Enigma, Success Story or Doomed?
Croatia14: Looking at the HQ alone you know that it has been a success story so far. Last year was a decent start, and now there hasn’t been much change in comparison to last season. Vastaranta has declined, but instead they added a great puncheur in Gautier and have Manninen as a better leadout than previously. The team has become significantly better, and as long as Lo Cicero can feed the beast I see a success story coming, if you count establishing a team with a hard regional focus in PCt as success which is exactly what I do.
knockout: It is no secret that Valio is one of my favourite teams. Establishing a team fully focussed on developing Finish cycling is a hugely ambitious project. Many of their lesser talents need three or four years of development before being just about worth a contract in CT or PCT. Sticking to them despite of that demands a lot of respect from me. Short term success or not depends a lot on Lo Cicero continuing to overperform. They cannot expect another 1000 points performance from him but will likely be in relegation danger for most of the season. But they also don’t need that as the general team looks way improved in comparison to last season. Kulppi replaces Breschel and Gautier adds a new quality to the team so if Lo Cicero can again score sth like 700 points then i see no reason why the success story shouldn’t continue.
jandal: I love Valio and their project and I think they’ve improved since last season with Kulppi keeping minor cobbles points alive and Gautier with points from new places as a very high quality puncheur. They will need to improve next season but if Il Toro fires on all cylinders again this team can keep the success up.
AbhishekLFC: Well, for me, they are both an enigma and a success story! In my limited time in the game, however much I’ve read, they’re going in the direction they wanted to when they started. So, that’s a success. Whether they’ll survive this year or not, that is the enigma!
trekbmc: I don’t really understand the relegation doubts for them, Gautier is a very strong rider due to his great acceleration stat, which makes him better than he looks, then Lo Cicero should really score pretty well, being a fatty sprinter doesn’t necessarily make you bad if your sprint stat is so good, so I think their survival will be pretty certain off those two. Of course, then they have a lot of Finns, which I believe to be a success in any case.
We hope you very much liked the preview! Feedback to the different methods, approaches, paradigms and outcomes is very much appreciated.Edited by Croatia14 on 24-10-2017 20:38
Ok so first of all this is some very, very nice work.
A less popular call: Primož Roglič. He received a very expensive training this offseason but i don’t think it will change a lot. He still is not good enough to compete with the best in mountains (and hills) and there are plenty of other riders for the hybrid profiles. Lots of similar riders like Kwiatek, Roche, Barguil or Schelling around and also the top specialists might go against him in those races. I believe that matt will have hoped for a far bigger effect of the training.
Second of all! Don't even dare to touch Roglic Sure, he might not manage to score as much as Kwiat or Roche by the end of the year, though I'd argue he's certainly above Schelling, but last year with 2 less points in MO he did score 350 points.
With a team that is pretty much built to just have him carried in the odd 2 or 3 TTTs he'll face, a noticeably less strong PCT under a climbers point of view compared to last year, I absolutely see him increase his point tally to around 525 and I don't think I'm being delusional, with a higher best case scenario. Anything above 500 will have been worth the training frankly, since everything I want from him is to lead us to direct promotion hopefully. He won't really take part in many hilly races either if that was a concern, I believe Strade Bianche is his only one just to fill his RDs.
Took me nearly half an hour to read, but my god it's worth it. This has to be the best preview in the history of MG. Thanks AbhishekLFC, Croatia14, knockout, jandal7 and trekbmc
Regarding my team, I would thank you for the kind words. Knowing me I'll have screwed up planning a little bit. The sprinter side is indeed bad but there has to be some improvement for next season. I hope the "attacking" riders can get their chance to shine (even though I may have planned Martinez a bit too much as pure domestique to Úran)
Watch out for Polanc to step it up to the big boys as well.
Sure, he might not manage to score as much as Kwiat or Roche by the end of the year, though I'd argue he's certainly above Schelling, but last year with 2 less points in MO he did score 350 points. 
