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CT predictions for lazy/busy wizards
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-10-2017 20:37
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World Champion
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Original idea from Croatia, for those of you with no time for shiny or detailed previews or focusing on PCT or PT, but want to make a quicker prediction of team placings/with a bite of text, feel free to bomb this thread with predictions!
List of predictions:
Maxime's "super-bold predictions"
Abhishek's rider ranking prediction
SN's "a bit mathy" preview
Aquarius' "The Subjetive but Accurated CT Preview"
Matt's prediction
jandal's "jandally CT Preview"
Abhishek's Team Rankings Predictions
Marco's "overall ranking based on overall"
Croatia14's "sustainable quocient prediction"
Vien's "quickie prediction"
Tamijo's "Tami's Mathestimat"
knockout's "I would simulate 400 seasons" prediction
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 01:38
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Classics Specialist
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Here's a list of super bold predictions I have (most of which will probably be wrong):
1. Aeropostal will have 1 point scorer in the top 50, which will be Raul Cabrera
2. Andorra Cycling Project will finish in the bottom 5 because of the lack of back up and hill stats in their climbers, however in a few years they'll have an exciting group of young prospects
3. Azteca has a rider finish in the top 3 on every single mountain stage (excluding breakaway victories) but will never have a rider in the top 3 on a cobble or sprint stage (excluding breakaways again)
4. Campari - superdry does not win a race all year, still scores well-ish off top 10s
5. Cycle Yorkshire's Rohan Dennis wins the most time trials in the CT
6. Eddie Stobart's Daniel Thorsen does not get a single top 15 placing and never rides for another team again, however the team actually does pretty well
7. Garmin - BikeNZ has the most Breakaway wins in the CT
8. Nordstrom finishes in the top 5
9. In-n-Out's Kai Reus wins only 1 Time trial all year
10. Kulczyk - DMTEX promotes
11. Löbauer Stadtwerke promotes next year, finishes outside top 15 this year
12. Philips - Continental finishes with 3 riders in the top 30 point scorers
13. Proximus does not score points on a single mountain, hill or timetrial stage
14. Repsol Honda doesn't promote
15. SanCor becomes the go-to sprint train for sprinters who don't have a train and need a train to leech off of
16. Sauber finished outside the top 10
17. Statoil finishes dead last
18. Reddit's winner anacona is the only rider on the team who wins a mountain stage despite having 5 riders with 76+ mountain
19. Telia wins the most mountain classifications
20. Balkan cycling project finishes in the complete middle of the ranking (12th)
21. VMP - Argon has 6 riders that score points all season
22. Wiggle loans out or sells 12 of its 18 riders after this season
23. World Cycling Centre shocks the CT and finishes either second or first
24. Xero's Simon Clarke has a breakaway victory before he has a sprint victory
If anyone wants to know the rationale behind any of these bold predictions, just let me know which ones |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 02:02
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maxime86 wrote:
1. Aeropostal will have 1 point scorer in the top 50, which will be Raul Cabrera
10. Kulczyk - DMTEX promotes
13. Proximus does not score points on a single mountain, hill or timetrial stage
14. Repsol Honda doesn't promote
15. SanCor becomes the go-to sprint train for sprinters who don't have a train and need a train to leech off of
17. Statoil finishes dead last
23. World Cycling Centre shocks the CT and finishes either second or first
"bold" 
I like our one, I hoped he'd do breaks last season with that fighter stat but never came around  He could definitely win if he survives to the finish in a break though. I doubt he'll get a sprint win so very likely
Also would love to hear the rationale behind Goldcorp's one 
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 02:44
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Team Leader
Posts: 5897
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So you think i'll finish last huh?
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 08:39
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
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A prediction of 6th place, hope your right  |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-10-2017 08:41
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I think is just in AlfaB. ordre
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 08:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 34654
Joined: 22-08-2010
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damn  |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:48
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Classics Specialist
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jandal7 wrote:
Also would love to hear the rationale behind Goldcorp's one
Same, not gonna complain though 
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 00:19
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Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
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Let's call this "The Subjetive but Accurated CT Preview" 
| Place | Team Name | | 1 |  Azteca - NBCSM | | 2 |  Kulczyk - DMTEX | | 3 |  In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | | 4 |  Philips - Continental | | 5 |  Sauber Petronas Racing | | 6 |  Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | 7 |  cycleYorkshire | | 8 |  World Cycling Centre | | 9 |  Telia-Brussels Airlines | | 10 |  Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | | 11 |  Repsol - Honda | | 12 |  The Balkan Cycling Project | | 13 |  Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | | 14 |  Campari - Super Dry | | 15 |  Proximus Continental Team | | 16 |  Team Reddit | | 17 |  Andorra Cycling Project | | 18 |  Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | | 19 |  Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | | 20 |  Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | | 21 |  SanCor | | 22 |  Eddie Stobart | | 23 |  Statoil Pro Cycling | | 24 |  VMP - Argon 18 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 27-11-2024 01:08
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 01:25
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I'm not saying it's for sure gonna happen, but I honestly could see a situation where u guys win a ton of cobbles races with Van Keirsbulck and Farrar. Then, I love your team's backup stats, everyone has good backup stats and are really all around, meaning I could see a situation where u guys steal a ton of points from random stage victories and top 10s that you aren't expected to get.
Yea or close to it honestly, that said, I absolutely love your core of young talents, you're gonna be really really good in a few years i think |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 05-10-2017 05:24
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@Maxime: My predictions also say that I'll have three riders in the top 30
@Aquarius: Thanks for the confidence but I think we'll end a couple of positions lower
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 05-10-2017 13:39
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@Aquaris : Thanks for the vote, I really do like my team for this season, but the lack of a top sprinter in CT is normally a huge problem. Still think we promote comfortably, but I'd bet on others to take the crown.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 16:43
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@Aquarius, I like the confidence in my squad, I don't expect to finish 5th but I do think there's a chance it could happen. I just hope you aren't putting too much faith in my race planning skills as there is probably a reason why I am still CT in my 5th season, that said I suppose it's 5 seasons worth of learning what doesn't work first hand so I know what mistakes to not repeat.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 05-10-2017 16:47
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1. Kulczyk - DMTEX
2. In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
3. Xero Racing p/b Octagon
4. Azteca-NBCSN
5. World Cycling Centre
6. Philips - Continental
7. cycleYorkshire
8. Team Reddit
9. Repsol - Honda
10. Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
11. Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
12. Sauber Petronas Racing
13. Campari - Super Dry
14. Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
15. Eddie Stobart
16. The Balkan Cycling Project
17. Telia - Brussels Airlines
18. Proximus Continental Team
19. Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
20. Andorra Cycling Project
21. Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
22. VMP - Argon 18
23. SanCor
24. Statoil Pro Cycling
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 05-10-2017 16:52
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I get the feeling 6th place and us are gonna be a match made in heaven
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| Booker |
Posted on 05-10-2017 17:41
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 876
Joined: 03-07-2013
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Not quite sure what to do with all that pressure!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 20:06
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Third  Not sure why you think we'll come there but thanks for the confidence
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 06-10-2017 10:48
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Did a small numbers based prediction myself, but don't feel like making a new thread for it
Because everyone's prediction is so full based of subjective things and very difficult calculations, I based my prediction relying on one stat: OVL. Which I know is not a 100% accurate reflection of the actual strength but it's good enough for me. I'll call it "Marco's overall ranking based on overall"
There are three individual rankings in the spoilers. They are all based on the average of the first n-riders of the team. The final ranking is a combination of those three rankings
"Leaders" ranking (5 riders):
Spoiler | Rank | Team | OVL | | 1 | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | 75,52 | | 2 | Azteca - NBCSN | 75,29 | | 3 | World Cycling Centre | 75,02 | | 4 | Team Reddit | 74,99 | | 5 | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | 74,76 | | 6 | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 74,67 | | 7 | cycleYorkshire | 74,63 | | 8 | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 74,53 | | 9 | Philips - Continental | 74,46 | | 10 | Eddie Stobart | 74,34 | | 11 | Campari - Super Dry | 74,10 | | 12 | The Balkan Cycling Project | 74,08 | | 13 | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | 74,03 | | 13 | Repsol - Honda | 74,03 | | 15 | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 73,93 | | 15 | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | 73,93 | | 17 | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | 73,88 | | 18 | Andorra Cycling Project | 73,86 | | 19 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 73,85 | | 20 | Proximus Continental Team | 73,79 | | 21 | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | 73,67 | | 22 | VMP - Argon 18 | 73,64 | | 23 | SanCor | 73,38 | | 24 | Statoil Pro Cycling | 73,04 |
"Depth" ranking (10 riders):
Spoiler | Rank | Team | OVL | | 1 | Team Reddit | 74,43 | | 2 | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | 74,38 | | 3 | Azteca - NBCSN | 74,09 | | 4 | World Cycling Centre | 74,03 | | 5 | Philips - Continental | 73,87 | | 6 | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 73,74 | | 7 | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 73,71 | | 8 | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | 73,57 | | 9 | cycleYorkshire | 73,47 | | 10 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 73,43 | | 11 | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | 73,41 | | 12 | Eddie Stobart | 73,30 | | 13 | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | 73,28 | | 14 | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 73,26 | | 15 | Andorra Cycling Project | 73,20 | | 16 | Campari - Super Dry | 73,19 | | 17 | Proximus Continental Team | 73,15 | | 18 | The Balkan Cycling Project | 73,08 | | 19 | Repsol - Honda | 73,00 | | 20 | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | 72,73 | | 21 | SanCor | 72,71 | | 22 | VMP - Argon 18 | 72,56 | | 23 | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | 72,42 | | 24 | Statoil Pro Cycling | 72,24 |
"Domestique" ranking (15 riders):
Spoiler | Rank | Team | OVL | | 1 | Team Reddit | 73,75 | | 2 | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | 73,34 | | 3 | Philips - Continental | 73,20 | | 4 | Azteca - NBCSN | 73,17 | | 5 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 73,06 | | 6 | World Cycling Centre | 72,94 | | 7 | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | 72,70 | | 8 | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 72,67 | | 9 | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 72,62 | | 10 | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 72,57 | | 11 | cycleYorkshire | 72,56 | | 12 | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | 72,54 | | 13 | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | 72,49 | | 14 | The Balkan Cycling Project | 72,47 | | 15 | Proximus Continental Team | 72,42 | | 16 | Andorra Cycling Project | 72,28 | | 17 | SanCor | 71,99 | | 18 | Campari - Super Dry | 71,94 | | 19 | Eddie Stobart | 71,87 | | 20 | VMP - Argon 18 | 71,80 | | 21 | Repsol - Honda | 71,67 | | 22 | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | 71,23 | | 23 | Statoil Pro Cycling | 71,15 | | 24 | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | 71,11 |
Final ranking (0.5 * Leader + 0.3 * Depth + 0.2 * Domestique):
| 1 | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | 74,74 | | 2 | Team Reddit | 74,57 | | 3 | Azteca - NBCSN | 74,51 | | 4 | World Cycling Centre | 74,31 | | 5 | Philips - Continental | 74,03 | | 6 | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 73,97 | | 7 | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | 73,96 | | 8 | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 73,92 | | 9 | cycleYorkshire | 73,87 | | 10 | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | 73,58 | | 11 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 73,57 | | 12 | Eddie Stobart | 73,53 | | 13 | The Balkan Cycling Project | 73,46 | | 14 | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 73,46 | | 15 | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | 73,45 | | 16 | Campari - Super Dry | 73,40 | | 17 | Andorra Cycling Project | 73,35 | | 18 | Proximus Continental Team | 73,32 | | 19 | Repsol - Honda | 73,25 | | 20 | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | 72,98 | | 21 | VMP - Argon 18 | 72,95 | | 22 | SanCor | 72,90 | | 23 | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | 72,81 | | 24 | Statoil Pro Cycling | 72,42 |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 06-10-2017 11:12
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Posts: 11679
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9th, 5th, 3rd, if only there were 20 riders per team
We are the depth kings
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 06-10-2017 11:26
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
Joined: 17-12-2014
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I really hope this 8th thing doesn't stick
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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