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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2017
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 04-10-2017 19:50
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How does it work?
The OVL calculations for all riders are formula based, using a rating for each rider for the categories of 'Puncheur', Stage Races', 'Sprinter', 'Time Trial', 'Cobbles' and 'Climber'.
Based on these formulas, I've calculated a category rating for each team, based on their best 3 riders for each category. A rider can only be ranked 1st, or 2nd, for his team in one category - with the exception of Sprint and Cobbles.
This results in a team division rank for each category (shown below) alongside a team category rating. I've experimented with a few methods, based on the ranks and the ratings, to predict the overall CT standings.
Puncheur
| 1 |  | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | : | vd Hugenhaben | Kratochvila | Hardy | | | 2 |  | Azteca - NBCSN | : | Chaves | Squire | Becerra | | | 3 |  | World Cycling Centre | : | Boily | Rodriguez G | Armee | | | 4 |  | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Roux | Diggle | Bennett | | | 5 |  | Team Reddit | : | Monfort | Simon | Schoonbroodt | | | 6 |  | Campari - Super Dry | : | Bratashcuk | Kebede | Cataldo | | | 7 |  | Goldcorp - Nordstrom | : | Pellaud | Anderson | Rybakov | | | 8 |  | Aeropostal Venezuela | : | Grippo | Besada | Pirazzi | | | 9 |  | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Vichot | Hollenstein | Penasa | | | 10 |  | Repsol - Honda | : | Cunego | Gilbert | Valls | |
Spoiler 11  Telia-Brussels Airlines
12 Sauber Petronas Racing
13 Proximus Continental Team
14 The Balkan Cycling Project
15 Philips - Continental
16 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
17 SanCor
18 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
19 Statoil Pro Cycling
20 Eddie Stobart
21 Andorra Cycling Project
22 cycleYorkshire
23 VMP - Argon 18
24 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
Stage Races
| 1 | | Azteca - NBCSN | : | Eastman | Chaves | Squire | | | 2 | | Team Reddit | : | Krasnoperov | Anacona | Manfredi | | | 3 | | Repsol - Honda | : | Valls | Cunego | Nakane | | | 4 |  | cycleYorkshire | : | Tvetcov | Dennis | Woods | | | 5 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | : | Kratochvila | vd Hugenhaben | Reus | | | 6 |  | Eddie Stobart | : | Suaza | Medvedev | Lewis | | | 7 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Penasa | Cieslik | Pozzo | | | 8 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Bennett | Salinas | Antón | | | 9 |  | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Zoidl | Ahmad Zamri | Mat Senan | | | 10 | | Campari - Super Dry | : | Cataldo | Girardi | Kebede | |
Spoiler 11 VMP - Argon 18
12 The Balkan Cycling Project
13 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
14 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
15 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
16 SanCor
17 Andorra Cycling Project
18 World Cycling Centre
19 Telia-Brussels Airlines
20 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
21 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
22 Philips - Continental
23 Proximus Continental Team
24 Statoil Pro Cycling
Sprinter
| 1 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | : | Haller | Bar | Kruopis | | | 2 |  | Philips - Continental | : | Kreder | Krieger | Bogdanovics | | | 3 | | Aeropostal Venezuela | : | Granjel Cabrera | Dall'Antonia | Sepulveda | | | 4 | | World Cycling Centre | : | Harrison | Lay | Castañeda | | | 5 |  | Wiggle p/b Boardman | : | Haussler | Horton | Opie | | | 6 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Bennett | Havik | Hochmann | | | 7 |  | Telia-Brussels Airlines | : | Nizzolo | Berger | Sonnery | | | 8 |  | Balkan Cycling Project | : | Mezgec | Vingerling | Jones | | | 9 | | Team Reddit | : | Kip | Meyer | Croket | | | 10 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Salleh | Chavanne | Manan | |
Spoiler 11 Proximus Continental Team
12 Eddie Stobart
13 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
14 cycleYorkshire
15 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
16 SanCor
17 Campari - Super Dry
18 Statoil Pro Cycling
19 Azteca - NBCSN
20 Xero Racing p/b Octagon
21 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
22 VMP - Argon 18
23 Andorra Cycling Project
24 Repsol - Honda
Time Trial
| 1 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | : | Reus | Kreuziger | Bouet | | | 2 | | cycleYorkshire | : | Dennis | Tennant | Robert | | | 3 |  | Löbauer Stadtwerke | : | Martin | Thill | Bille | | | 4 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Mullen | Hacecký | Gradek | | | 5 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Hofer | Zoidl | Ahmad Zamri | | | 6 |  | Andorra Cycling Project | : | Mottin | Kireva | Laizer | | | 7 | | Philips - Continental | : | Grabovski | Van Zandbeek | Van Emden | | | 8 |  | Statoil Pro Cycling | : | Bookwalter | Jacobsen | Daniel | | | 9 | | Wiggle p/b Boardman | : | Christian | Offredo | Rowsell | | | 10 | | World Cycling Centre | : | Vandousselaere | Thomson | Quintero | |
Spoiler 11 Team Reddit
12 Telia-Brussels Airlines
13 Repsol - Honda
14 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
15 Eddie Stobart
16 The Balkan Cycling Project
17 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
18 SanCor
19 VMP - Argon 18
20 Proximus Continental Team
21 Xero Racing p/b Octagon
22 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
23 Azteca - NBCSN
24 Campari - Super Dry
Cobbles
| 1 | | World Cycling Centre | : | Bush | Harrison | Armee | | | 2 | | Goldcorp - Nordstrom | : | Van Keirsbulck | Lebris | Hamilton | | | 3 | | Philips - Continental | : | Drucker | Van Emden | Per | | | 4 |  | Proximus Continental | : | Lindeman | De Vreese | Fouquet | | | 5 | | cycleYorkshire | : | Thwaites | Takenouchi | Lampier | | | 6 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Grand | Wyss | Zafferani | | | 7 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Havik | Jérôme | Gradek | | | 8 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Vandenbergh | Ngamoki-C | Schreurs | | | 9 | | Campari - Super Dry | : | Verbist | Gatto | Colon | | | 10 | | Team Reddit | : | Schoonbroodt | Darbinyan | Croket | |
Spoiler 11 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
12 Eddie Stobart
13 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
14 SanCor
15 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
16 Andorra Cycling Project
17 Azteca - NBCSN
18 Repsol - Honda
19 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
20 VMP - Argon 18
21 Telia-Brussels Airlines
22 Statoil Pro Cycling
23 The Balkan Cycling Project
24 Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo
Climber
| 1 | | Team Reddit | : | Anacona | Krasnoperov | Manfredi | | | 2 | | Eddie Stobart | : | Medvedev | Suaza | Lewis | | | 3 | | Azteca - NBCSN | : | Stetina | Eastman | Squire | | | 4 | | Andorra Cycling Project | : | Solis | Rujano | Baltazar | | | 5 | | Aeropostal Venezuela | : | Atapuma | Moschella | Pereyra | | | 6 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Antón | Bennett | Salinas | | | 7 | | Repsol - Honda | : | Serrano | Valls | Cunego | | | 8 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | : | Pozzo | Penasa | Cieslik | | | 9 | | Philips - Continental | : | Bardet | Battaglin | Ruijgh | | | 10 | | The Balkan Cycling Project | : | Destribois | Karnulin | La Lavandier | |
Spoiler 11 Campari - Super Dry
12 Telia-Brussels Airlines
13 VMP - Argon 18
14 Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling
15 Statoil Pro Cycling
16 In-n-Out p/b Carrefour
17 Sauber Petronas Racing
18 Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes
19 World Cycling Centre
20 Proximus Continental Team
21 Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack
22 SanCor
23 cycleYorkshire
24 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
Summary
In-n-Out immediately stand out, as they top the tables across three distinct disciplines: Puncheur, Sprinter and Time Trial. They also make the Top 5 in Stage Races, but in here and in the Climber category, it is Azteca and Reddit who are rated as the strongest teams. Azteca also rating 2nd on the hills, makes it clear where their priorities are - particularly in contrast to theit other ranks. World Cycling Centre and Philips are the two other teams with a pair of podiums - one of which is shared: Cobbles.
Many teams have evidently focused on certain terrain, and the average range of ranks is 16. The impressive exception to this rule is Kulczyk, who rank in the Top 10 for every single category. They may not be the strongest in each case, a best of 4th in Time Trials, but in a season where all CT teams are forced to ride a varied calendar, their all-round abilities will be the envy of many. Reddit are next best in this regard, always in the Top 11, followed by In-n-Out (Top 16), Sauber Petronas (Top 17) and Wiggle (Top 18).
17 teams feature in the Top 5 at least once, with 4 more with at least one Top 10 appearance. That leaves just three: VMP, Garmin and SanCor. The numbers don't look great for them.
| | PU | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL | | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | 8 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 24 | 5 | | Andorra Cycling Project | 21 | 17 | 23 | 6 | 16 | 4 | | Azteca - NBCSN | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 3 | | Campari - Super Dry | 6 | 10 | 17 | 24 | 9 | 11 | | cycleYorkshire | 22 | 4 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 23 | | Eddie Stobart | 20 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 2 |  | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | 24 | 13 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 14 | | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | 7 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 2 | 21 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 8 | | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | 16 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 13 | 24 | | Philips - Continental | 15 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9 | | Proximus Continental Team | 13 | 23 | 11 | 20 | 4 | 20 | | Repsol - Honda | 10 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 18 | 7 |  | SanCor | 17 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 14 | 22 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 12 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 17 | | Statoil Pro Cycling | 19 | 24 | 18 | 8 | 22 | 15 | | Team Reddit | 5 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 1 | | Telia-Brussels Airlines | 11 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 12 | | The Balkan Cycling Project | 14 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 10 |  | VMP - Argon 18 | 23 | 11 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 13 | | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | 18 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 18 | | World Cycling Centre | 3 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 19 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 4 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 8 | 6 |
Bringing it together
The next stage is bringing all of the above into a divisional standing prediction. Five different rankings have been produced here, the first two come from the ranking positions, the other 3 use the team category scores themselves - sometimes adjusted, sometimes weighted.
And the average of these produces my Slightly Mathematical CT division prediction:
| 1 | | In-n-Out p/b Carrefour | | | | | | | 2 | | Team Reddit | | | | | | | 3 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | | | | | | | 4 | | World Cycling Centre | | | | | | | 5 | | Azteca - NBCSN | | | | | | | 6 | | Philips - Continental | | | | | | | 7 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | | | | | | | 8 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | | | | | | 9 | | cycleYorkshire | | | | | | | 10 | | Aeropostal Venezuela Ciclismo | | | | | | | 11 | | Eddie Stobart | | | | | | | 12 | | Campari - Super Dry | | | | | | | 13 | | Repsol - Honda | | | | | | | 14 | | The Balkan Cycling Project | | | | | | | 15 | | Telia-Brussels Airlines | | | | | | | 16 | | Andorra Cycling Project | | | | | | | 17 | | Wiggle p/b Boardman Bikes | | | | | | | 18 | | Proximus Continental Team | | | | | | | 19 | | Goldcorp - Nordstrom Rack | | | | | | | 20 | | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | | | | | | | 21 | | Garmin - BikeNZ Cycling | | | | | | | 22 | | Statoil Pro Cycling | | | | | | | 23 | | SanCor | | | | | | | 24 | | VMP - Argon 18 | | | | | |
A breakdown of all five predictions is shown below. They gave some very consistent results with the exact same Top 4 each time, and almost the same Top 5. In-n-Out are my predicted champions, to bounce straight back to PCT. Reddit and Kulczyk are the strongest new teams, with World Cycling Centre the top returning CT team, and Azteca also predicted to return to PCT.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | P | | | 1 | | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | | 3 | | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | | | | 6 | | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | | | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | | 9 | | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | | 11 | | | | | | | | | 12 | | | | | | | | | 13 | | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | | 15 | | | | | | | | | 16 | | | | | | | | | 17 | | | | | | | | | 18 | | | | | | | | | 19 | | | | | | | | | 20 | | | | | | | | | 21 | | | | | | | | | 22 | | | | | | | | | 23 | | | | | | | | | 24 | | | | | | | |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 19:54
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Wow, awesome work and detail! Chappeu
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:03
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Amazing work as always SN, but I have to ask: how much are backups taken into account. Just with Reddit in second  Very nice and detailed preview, usually is fairly accurate and so is very interesting to see who's hot and who's not
For us pretty in line with our predictions of ourselves, even if I think our climbing trio is undersold a little bit
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:04
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This is really amazing! Alongside the other massive previews, this will promiss a lot of show can't wait for January to begin 
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:08
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Great work! Hopefully I wont be in 18th tho 
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| Vien |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:10
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Ohh my.. I love this statistical content popping up!
I highly doubt we'll finish second as some of my riders' AVG feel a bit inflated, but only time will tell. I'm glad this at least proves I built the well-rounded team I desired. |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:12
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Amazing job! Great thing to be predicted in the mid-table, as that's exactly where i expected myself to finish.
Clearly your formulas didn't count with back-ups. No way Reddit finish even inside top10. Most of their good riders are one-stat wonders. Apart from this team, your predictions seems to match what I expected
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:19
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Always love these mathematical previews
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 04-10-2017 20:38
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Great work as always goes into SN's mathematical preview, honed over a number of years to help improve reliability. I too find Reddit in 2nd surprising, although am not as down on Krasno as some of the others given the calendar/race formats this year, but would be impresed to see Reddit quite that far up.
I'd gladly sign on the dotted line for a guaranteed 4th for WCC right now! Some of the listings proves where I have concerns, e.g. in my sprinters squabbling - sure AI will make Castenada protected ride (who you list as 3rd choice), when in some situations others might be a better choice. Fortunately our weakness in the mountains is hopefully in part dispelled by the fact that our programme ensures 108 out of 120 RD's are mountain free . Does mean that WCC are probably one of the CT teams riding most frequently in C1/HC though which has other dangers/risks inherent as an approach.
One query re: Methodology. You state that:
"A rider can only be ranked 1st, or 2nd, for his team in one category",
i assume you mean 1st twice or 2nd twice, not 1st and 2nd as reads a little ambiguously, but then rider listings like Chaves and VdH suggest the first interpretation.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 04-10-2017 21:38
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Scorchio wrote:
i assume you mean 1st twice or 2nd twice, not 1st and 2nd as reads a little ambiguously, but then rider listings like Chaves and VdH suggest the first interpretation.
Yeh, a rider can only be 1st in one category. They can also only be 2nd in one category.
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| Booker |
Posted on 04-10-2017 22:25
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Would obviously take 3rd! It's definitely great to see Kulczyk projected in a podium place for the season, but there's a part of me that just expects things to go wrong. So many ways PCM can throw that spanner into your works.
Hopefully the squad doesn't let these expectations go to its collective head. We'll really need the Poles to control the haughty Frenchmen, and bring them down to earth. 
As far as the actual predictions go, I'm surprised mainly by two things: Reddit in 2nd and Azteca in 5th. I could see those two swapping in the final standings.
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 22:28
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RIP me
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 04-10-2017 23:32
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It doesn't look too bad for Eddie Stobart but only time will tell  |
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 00:09
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I would happily take a top 10, as that is roughly how many went up last year and is an improvement on last season.
7th would probably mean we get a near miss on the really tough top 5 goal we set ourselves as well which would be a good achievement.
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| maxime86 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 01:34
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Really encouraged with this preview, I really hope it works out like this
Also I always love these statistical previews, it's even cooler that it's often the most accurate of all the previews |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 05-10-2017 05:20
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Wow, very well done with that detailed mathematical preview . Have to say, I agree with a lot of those positions.
6th-10th is where I expect to end up and that is where you've got me (although my own prediction differs ). Reddit will be up there but 2nd is probably a bit too high for them. I bet we'll be slugging it out for the 6th-10th places with them and other teams like cycleYorkshire, Repsol, Campari and Sauber to name a few. Also, I believe Telia would be higher than your predicted 15th place. I also see a strong possibility of Xero in the direct promotion places...
Let's see how close to this we end up. 6th would mean a heart-breakingly close miss on direct promotion! Let's get this show on the road 
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| ember |
Posted on 05-10-2017 06:48
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Very cool preview!
Think I agree In-n-Out p/b Carrefour must be the favourite for the title, as van der Hugenhaben and Haller together with their very good depth in all terrains except cobbles should see them score heavily.
Though, I also agree with many of the points AbhishekLFC has made, especially Xero looks promising to improve on the mathematical 8th. I definitely fancu them for promotion.
Should anyway be very interesting to see how this preview does compared to the final results! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 05-10-2017 07:00
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Thanks ember and Abhishek for your faith in my promotion hopes, more than me 8th is certainly below where we hope to be and a bit below my prediction, but I guess it's partly the fact that Clarke and Vandenbergh don't have great support but by acting alone can do better than 21st and 7th in their terrains, part that Reddit is so high and part that teams 6-9 there can probably finish in any order depending on planning and luck
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-10-2017 07:02
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Really great preview.
That said, I say In-n-Out won`t finish top 3.
Reus is great but not as unique anymore with Dennis, Martin, Mullen etc. Even though his allround skills surely set him a bit higher.
Hugenhaben was decent last season. Surprised me couple of times with long range attacks and aggressive riding. Still think he lacks the acceleration to beat the climbers in mountains or puncheurs in hills.
Haller is just one of many. Maybe best or top3 sprinter at least but still just one of many.
To finish first they all 3 need to perform well as I think the better depth/balance of Kulczyk for example will beat them.
Azteca is a gamble for me. Chaves was really really bad last season. But he was usually co-leader next to Beltran. I had loved to see them keeping Beltran instead but was hardly possible I guess. With Chaves it`s a questionmark if he can step up and perform according to his stats.
The addition of Eastman though is great and if he can find his rythm, it`s another team I could see finish ahead of In-n-Out.
And then I am sure there will be some team again, that surprises many, performing on many stages such as Strava or Ferrero most recently, that finishes top3 as well. |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 05-10-2017 08:15
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Very interesting preview - Campari - Super Dry i little better that what i would have expected.
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