The Tour of Japan is some strange race with big unknowns. 2 flat stages for the sprinter - easy. Two hilly stages for the puncheurs - easy. 2km prologue - who cares? But then the difficult 11km mountain time trial up Mt. Fuji making this race really interesting and different to other events.
For the managers it`s a question between puncheur, climber and allrounder. Depending on the startlist chances are there to see big gaps opening up in the hills. In other years the puncheurs neutralize themselves there and the pure climbers have a shot gaining lots of time on Mt. Fuji.
Having an allrounder surely helps every year but then again he can`t lose too much neither in the hills nor in the mountain time trial.
The past years have shown that being a solid climber is absolutely necessary as time gaps are quite big on the long ascent of Mt. Fuji. Though Kwiatkowski, Bibby, Cataldo, Cobo, who performed well here most recently are all kind of allrounders. In especially Bibby, who has a history of 3rd, 2nd and 5th in the last editions shows this.
Riders such as Landa, Barrio though showing how to enter the top10 as puncheur and those two aren`t even some of the best puncheurs, which are here in 2016.
So let`s check this years startlist.
First of all it`s not the biggest but actually having quite a few bigger names as usual.
Climbing wise the ones of Cataldo and Bibby, who used to perform well here might struggle a lot more seeing the names of Ricco and Cunego here. Both top climbers and also really good on the hilly terrain! Then Ji as one of many options for the home team Meiji, Kiserlovski and Valls as next best climbers and all of them with solid puncheur skills.
Slagter, Meintjes, Cataldo, Bibby, van der Hugenhaben, Kratochvila, Kung or Teklehaimanot all more the allrounders here, who need to follow the puncheurs to gain time on some of them. At least this must be their hope.
Mountain
Hill
Mountain
Hill
Ricco
81
79
Bibby
77
76
Ji
80
75
Teklehaimanot
77
74
Kiserlovski
80
75
van der Hugenhaben
77
80
Cunego
80
79
Augustyn
77
75
Valls
79
75
Schelling
77
74
Slagter
78
77
Scarponi
77
75
Ablenado
78
67
Anguilet
76
74
Rodrigues
78
73
Jeannesson
76
71
Meintjes
78
76
Herrada
76
74
Cataldo
78
75
Kratochvila
76
77
Kung
76
76
Cunego, Ricco and van der Hugenhaben are already mentioned for the hilly terrain. They are top5 puncheurs as well in this field. Hence for pure puncheurs it might be a struggle to get rid of them. Though two top riders will surely try. Kinoshita might be the divisions best even and seeing it`s his home race, it`s not the biggest surprise seeing him here. The other one is Anuar Aziz, who hasn`t shown that much yet and also might lose a bit too much on Mt. Fuji.
Then some 2nd tier puncheurs such as Betancourt, Barrio, Landa, Mendes.
Some as said did well here in past but might struggle in the tougher field.
Mountain
Hill
Kinoshita
72
81
Anuar Aziz
68
81
van der Hugenhaben
77
80
Ricco
81
79
Cunego
80
79
Betancourt
73
79
Barrio
70
79
Landa
69
78
Mendes
68
78
Slagter
78
77
Kratochvila
76
77
Craven
69
77
Two flat stages mean some sprinters will take the long way to Japan as well. Well, the top favourite already is here most likely. Itami completes the strong home team, who aim for all terrains it seems with their best options. Kuboki even is an option for prologue, sprint stages, leadouts or hilly stages!
Their main challenge should come from Aberasturi, Forero, Aregger, Reinhardt, Cisse and Angarita.
Hill
Sprint
Acceleration
Itami
61
80
82
Aberasturi
64
79
78
Forero
60
79
74
Aregger
71
78
77
Reinhardt
67
78
84
Cisse
63
78
77
Angarita
62
78
77
Kuboki
73
77
77
Polivoda
67
77
77
Opie
66
77
77
Grillo
66
77
76
Last but not least a short check of the prologue riders, who aim the leader jersey after day 1.
On paper this is an almost perfect race for Bibby, especially if he can win the prologue because of the leader's bonus. None of the hilly stages look overly selective I hope, which means that his sprint should give him a chance at bonus seconds, and he shouldn't lose too much time in the MTT to the other favourites - so a top 5 should be achievable, or at least a top 10.
Ricco should win this but with the mountain stage being an ITT and downhill finishes all around it should be quite open.
Oh, and Kuboki for 2-4 stages + stint in yellow
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
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Not sure what to expect of this race. Rodrigues usually doesn't perform very well in the hills, but he might actually hang on here (I hope). Otherwise Kadri should be quite a good option for stage 2, 3 and 5, especially if it ends in a sprint. Hoping for a GC top10 or a stage win here.
I have the feeling that Kadri will win a stage here. Hoping for Slagter to do a Top5 additionally. The winner should be some old Italian, though I guess the most points from here stay in Japan at Meiji.
Next try to squeeze Aregger in a leader jersey, at least for one day.
Cataldo may not defend his title, but is expected to do much better than at Tour de Romandie. Startlist isn't pleasing, but we somehow get used to the names. Let's say it could be worse.
matt17br wrote:
Vontobel got one helluva team for the prologue, definitely gonna take some sweet first stage points
...
Agreed! Strange, but there are situations you're quite happy not to see a Generali-jersey nearby.
Nice preview roturn. I think this one is impossible to predict a winner, which will make it a fun one to follow. I hope Schelling can crack the top 10, but won't be surprised if he doesn't.
Did not realise Konovalovas would be an option for the prologue, but I'd surely take it! GC should be close, and Cunego should have a very decent chance to reach to podium at least, however I suspect Ricco may just be that tiny bit better. Still have hopes I can finally win my very first GC though!
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game
Came here with the hope of winning every single stage. It actually looks possible with the field here, but I doubt that will end up happening. This is our most important race of the year and hopefully Ji can do well in the GC and Itami can perform on the flat stages for once. Kuboki and Kinoshita look good for stages as well but you never know how PCM will handle it.
We are making our only step up to PCT level in a race that has historically been very kind to us, with our lowest GC position in 3 attempts being 14th and with it being a race we have previously won.
Speaking of which, @Bushwackers, did UBS not fancy sending said former winner?
In theory I have sent one of my stronger squads if the season however the strength of PCT means we are probably looking more towards a breakaway then being actual GC contenders this year. That said we've always found a way to perform here in the past so who knows how it will play out for us.
And as always we can't help but remind you that's why we are #BigInJapan
The choice for us was South Africa or Japan, at SA we got a KOM jersey, so hopefully we see the second and third tier puncheurs do worse here to justify my decision
This race should go to one of the climbers, I'll see Ricco but the hill stages don't look like they'll kill off the climbers with above 75 hill, so any of them could win really imo.
Really need a good result here from Valls who should be capable of a good result given the varied field strength here. He has good support so hopefully they do something for him.
