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Slightly Mathematical CT Preview 2016
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:41
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Last year's version was officially the most accurate prediction, so let's run the formulas again and see what it brings!
What is it?
I've drawn up a formula based vaguely off the OVL calculations to try to form an analytical assesment of team strength. It considers the Top 3 riders from each team in each main type of rider specialisation, and uses that to compare between teams and ultimately come up with some form of ranking.
Tinkered a bit this year to reduce the influence that a standout rider across multiple categories could have. A rider could only be #1 for their team in one category, #2 in one category and #3 in one category. (In the case of Stage Race and Climber both being #1, Climber was changed to #2).
Puncheur
| 1 |  | La Poste - Mavic | : | Dowsett | Bille | Abelouache | | 2 |  | Ferrero - Samruk | : | Barbin | Pavarin | Pozzato | | 3 |  | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Klemme | Tatarinov | Gerdemann | | 4 |  | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Diggle | Nzeke | Lloyd | | 5 |  | MOL - OMV Petrom | : | Hategeka | Michely | Favilli | | 6 |  | Podium Ambition | : | Yates | Nardin | Ivanov | | 7 |  | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Kung | Schurter | Othman | | 8 |  | Chiquita - Universal | : | Lejman | Milan | Kinney | | 9 |  | KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen | : | Haavardsholm | Gaimon | Santambrogio | | 10 |  | New Balance | : | Taborre | Khripta | De Marchi |
Spoiler 11 cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
12 World Cycling Centre
13 Elta - Hellenic Post
14 Carlsberg - Danske bank
15 Vivacom - DataMap
16 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
17 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
18 Hankook - Ping An Bank
19 Schuh powered by Wiggle
20 Isostar - Adriatic
21 Eddie Stobart
22 Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
23 TVM - Beslist.nl
24 The Spark Project p/b Bollé
Stage Races
| 1 |  | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | : | Krasnoperov | Pauwels | Pedrero | | 2 |  | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | : | De la Cruz | Rojas Villegas | Gonzalez Cortes | | 3 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Salinas | Hirschlein | Kossouhorou | | 4 |  | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Garby | Lundberg | Landa | | 5 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Zoidl | Mat Senan | Kung | | 6 |  | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Antón | Kasa | Juodvalkis | | 7 |  | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | : | Tvetcov | Woods | Richardson | | 8 | | Chiquita - Universal | : | Martinez | Barton | De Leon | | 9 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Hacecký | Gerdemann | Ikibe | | 10 |  | Elta - Hellenic Post | : | Sella | Adamou | Rienda Segura |
Spoiler 11 New Balance
12 MOL - OMV Petrom
13 World Cycling Centre
14 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
15 Vivacom - DataMap
16 Ferrero - Samruk
17 La Poste - Mavic
18 Schuh powered by Wiggle
19 Hankook - Ping An Bank
20 Podium Ambition
21 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
22 Eddie Stobart
23 Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
24 TVM - Beslist.nl
Sprinter
| 1 | | Podium Ambition | : | Nelson | Soupe | Ewan | | 2 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Stauff | Maikin | Park | | 3 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Scully | Clarke | Gudsell | | 4 | | New Balance | : | Nizzolo | Dockx | Trusov | | 5 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Docker | Boonen | Rasmussen | | 6 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | : | Salleh | Manan | Awang | | 7 |  | TVM - Beslist.nl | : | Kip | Vingerling | Ariesen | | 8 |  | Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling | : | Von Hoff | Giacoppo | Altanzul | | 9 | | Chiquita - Universal | : | Drapac | Manarelli | Avila | | 10 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Mezgec | Bole | Papok |
Spoiler 11 La Poste - Mavic
12 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
13 MOL - OMV Petrom
14 Ferrero - Samruk
15 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
16 Eddie Stobart
17 The Spark Project p/b Bollé
18 Hankook - Ping An Bank
19 cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
20 Elta - Hellenic Post
21 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
22 Schuh powered by Wiggle
23 World Cycling Centre
24 Vivacom - DataMap
Time Trial
| 1 | | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | : | Yatsevich | Sebright | Pauwels | | 2 | | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | : | Robert | Stannard | Brammeier | | 3 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Tennant | Kasa | Drucker | | 4 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Steensen | De Maar | Bøchman | | 5 | | Ferrero - Samruk | : | Navardauskas | Würtz | Grivko | | 6 |  | Schuh powered by Wiggle | : | Christian | Offredo | Rowsell | | 7 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | : | Ma | Sakellaridis | Adamou | | 8 | | Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling | : | Flens | Petrus | Gunman | | 9 | | La Poste - Mavic | : | Bille | Tzortzakis | Ngandamba | | 10 |  | Eddie Stobart | : | Joeaar | Van der Ploeg | Montaguti |
Spoiler 11 Chiquita - Universal
12 Kraftwerk Man Machine
13 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
14 MOL - OMV Petrom
15 Vivacom - DataMap
16 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
17 World Cycling Centre
18 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
19 Podium Ambition
20 New Balance
21 Xero Racing p/b Octagon
22 Sauber Petronas Racing
23 Hankook - Ping An Bank
24 TVM - Beslist.nl
Northern Classics
| 1 | | Podium Ambition | : | Thomas | Hristov | Grashev | | 2 | | World Cycling Centre | : | Bush | Naesen | Backaert | | 3 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Boonen | Østergaard | De Maar | | 4 | | TVM - Beslist.nl | : | Lindeman | Ingels | Van der Haar | | 5 | | Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling | : | Bakari | De Vocht | Delgerbayar | | 6 | | Chiquita - Universal | : | De Haes | Marcos | Matthews | | 7 | | Schuh powered by Wiggle | : | Turgot | Field | Offredo | | 8 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Kurth | Walsleben | Terasaki | | 9 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Drucker | Papok | Bole | | 10 | | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | : | Takenouchi | Lampier | Rowe |
Spoiler 11 Eddie Stobart
12 New Balance
13 La Poste - Mavic
14 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
15 Ferrero - Samruk
16 Vivacom - DataMap
17 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
18 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
19 MOL - OMV Petrom
20 Elta - Hellenic Post
21 Sauber Petronas Racing
22 Xero Racing p/b Octagon
23 The Spark Project p/b Bollé
24 Hankook - Ping An Bank
| 1 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | : | Lundberg | Garby | Öste-Macdonald | | 2 |  | Hankook - Ping An Bank | : | Battaglin | Pozzo | Nakane | | 3 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | : | Rienda Segura | Sella | Gkazonis | | 4 | | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | : | Rojas Villegas | De la Cruz | Santoro | | 5 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | : | Hirschlein | Salinas | Lloyd | | 6 | | MOL - OMV Petrom | : | Pomoshnikov | Hategeka | Vigh | | 7 | | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | : | Di Gregorio | Krasnoperov | Cooper | | 8 | | New Balance | : | De Marchi | Løvik | Khripta | | 9 | | Isostar - Adriatic | : | Juodvalkis | Antón | Timmer | | 10 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | : | Tatarinov | Hacecký | Klemme |
Spoiler 11 Chiquita - Universal
12 World Cycling Centre
13 Sauber Petronas Racing
14 Eddie Stobart
15 La Poste - Mavic
16 Vivacom - DataMap
17 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
18 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
19 Ferrero - Samruk
20 cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
21 Podium Ambition
22 Schuh powered by Wiggle
23 Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
24 TVM - Beslist.nl
So Podium Ambition and Spark Project are ranked top on two disciplines. Carlsberg, Isotar and Kraftwerk are in the Top 10 in all but one categories, and infact Carlsberg are in the Top 5 each time there - while Xero feature in the Top 5 on four occasions. Chiquita have the highest worst category - as they feature in the Top 11 every single time.
At times it is clear that depth is favoured over top leadership, with Isotar down in 9th in Northern Classics despite having one of the best leaders there in Drucker.
Vivacom and Löbauer do not feature in any Top 10, while Eddie Stobart, World Cycling Centre, Kayak and Hankook only appear in one of them. Special mention to TVM, who are in two Top 10s but very nearly last in all four of the other categories.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:41
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
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And this leads us to the overall predictions. Two different methodologies here, with some differences, although 9 teams feature in the Top 10 on both occasions.
Standings - v1
First is the sum of the ranks from each category, taking away the worst rank in Sprinter, TT, Northern Classics or Climber.
| 1 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | | 2 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 3 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | 4 | | Chiquita - Universal | | 5 | | New Balance | | 6 | | Isostar - Adriatic | | 7 | | Podium Ambition | | 8 | | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 9 | | MOL - OMV Petrom | | 10 | | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | | 11 | | La Poste - Mavic | | 12 | | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | 13 | | Ferrero - Samruk | | 14 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 15 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 16 | | World Cycling Centre | | 17 | | Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling | | 18 | | Schuh powered by Wiggle | | 19 |  | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | | 20 |  | Vivacom - DataMap | | 21 | | Eddie Stobart | | 22 | | KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen | | 23 | | Hankook - Ping An Bank | | 24 | | TVM - Beslist.nl |
Standings - v2
This version is from a formula which takes into account the actual strength of teams in each category, not just the arbitrary rank position.
| 1 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 2 | | Carlsberg - Danske bank | | 3 | | Chiquita - Universal | | 4 | | Podium Ambition | | 5 | | Isostar - Adriatic | | 6 | | Ferrero - Samruk | | 7 | | The Spark Project p/b Bollé | | 8 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | | 9 | | New Balance | | 10 | | cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers | | 11 | | World Cycling Centre | | 12 | | Team Ticos Air Costa Rica | | 13 | | Elta - Hellenic Post | | 14 | | MOL - OMV Petrom | | 15 | | La Poste - Mavic | | 16 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | | 17 | | Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling | | 18 | | Schuh powered by Wiggle | | 19 | | Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx | | 20 | | KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen | | 21 | | Eddie Stobart | | 22 | | Vivacom - DataMap | | 23 | | Hankook - Ping An Bank | | 24 | | TVM - Beslist.nl |
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:45
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Tour de France Champion
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Oh dear, looks like Eddie Stobart are in for a season of struggle  |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:47
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World Champion
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This is undoubtedly the best prediction  But seriously cool insight with the rankings, but certainly as in the puncheur especially top 5 can be way off the top Well done SN, very interesting!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Paul23 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:52
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4411
Joined: 10-08-2011
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Even maths can't save my Team
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 08-07-2016 23:59
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3634
Joined: 03-07-2012
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I find it interesting that we are ranked 5th in Stage Racing but only 13th in Climber rankings, does that mean we should be dominating stage races without mountains or that are more hilly than mountainous or that we just have the stand out TTer out of the Stage Racers? Probably the latter considering he top 10'd the World's TT but our hilly squad is better than out Climbing one on paper also which means it could be a bit of both.
Not having Zoidl as my best TTer must hurt us in that category, as he is a stand out for us there compared to the rest of the squad, but he's ranked as our best stage racer.
I think my team is ranked differently to how the game will see us though in terms of rider strengths as I imagine Zoidl would be my best TTer and Stage Racer, Kung my best Climber and Othmen likely seen as my leader in some hilly races, especially any that don't feature Kung who will use race days both on hills and in mountains.
The end rankings of 14 and 16 are slightly disappointing as we are aiming for 10th to 15th so to be just in the lower end of that is disappointing but hopefully our planning will push us past some of the other teams around us in that ranking.
Also I'd be interested to see what happened if you took away the worst 2 rankings (or made the second worst only count as half) as I thought most teams seem to have 2 weak terrains rather than just 1.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-07-2016 00:31
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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I'm very excited for this season to say the least. I attempted to acquire a team that could place highly in any discipline and I think I succeeded. At this point, as these calculations display, I am no longer relying at all on De Maar to repeat his wonders. Anything he does now is just a bonus... except for that Benelux Challenge goal.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Jakstar22 |
Posted on 09-07-2016 00:53
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Team Leader
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Didn't think we were that bad but still better then last season.
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| matt17br |
Posted on 09-07-2016 06:59
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I do think riders averages should have a much bigger impact on the formula actually, that way Spark wouldn't be leading the stage racing category and Ferrero would top the punchers category as well, quite deservedly too.
Time trial also seems to have too much of a weight in stage racing while in ct pure climbers don't seem to suffer as much as they do in higher divisions. Elta seems quite further down the ranking there, to name one, but you would expect Carlsberg higher as well.
Tinkered a bit this year to reduce the influence that a standout rider across multiple categories could have.
This could have been a factor really, while its helpful in categories such as hilly classics (and didn't have that much of an effect on Ferrero as it seems anyway), it really didn't need to be altered for the cobbles to just name one, which is also why Isostar is so low down the rankings in that speciality, while Drucker alone will earn them a lot more than all of TVM, for instance.
That said, no need to be so nitpicky! Seems like a quite similar ranking to the ones that have been made before! Looking forward to see how it compares with the real thing at the end of the season!
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| MARSUPILAMI |
Posted on 09-07-2016 09:17
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5th and 9th, which is soooooo good! Thanks SN, good job!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 04:52
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 09-07-2016 09:24
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Tour de France Champion
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v1 has us in a position to grab a disbandment promotion place, not bad and shows a touch of luck would move us to auto promote.
Then the more accurate v2 has us in the auto promote places. Yet again another prediction i can't complain about in any way 
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-07-2016 10:18
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Grand Tour Champion
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This prediction shows exactly how I see my team: good in every category but no superstars. I'd be very surprised if we were to actually finished on the podium, but there's hope! 
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| haasje33 |
Posted on 09-07-2016 10:22
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Sprinter
Posts: 1679
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Seems that my team can only exceed expectations
Inactive due to personal reasons.
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 09-07-2016 11:03
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7651
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One of my worst predicted finishes of the everyone so far - not a fan SN 
.: Manager of :.
.: My Awards :.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 09-07-2016 11:19
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Team Manager
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@Sammy Your TT rank only improves to 15th if Zoidl were considered your #1 there. Take away the worst 2 ranks and the positions become:
Spoiler 1 Xero Racing p/b Octagon
2 Carlsberg - Danske bank
3 Kraftwerk Man Machine
4 Podium Ambition
5 cycleYorkshire s/b ASDA-Savers
6 Chiquita - Universal
7 Sauber Petronas Racing
8 The Spark Project p/b Bollé
9 Elta - Hellenic Post
10 New Balance
11 Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
12 MOL - OMV Petrom
13 Ferrero - Samruk
14 Isostar - Adriatic
15 La Poste - Mavic
16 World Cycling Centre
17 Schuh powered by Wiggle
18 Hankook - Ping An Bank
19 Fox Sports - BikeNZ Cycling
20 TVM - Beslist.nl
21 KAYAK - Clas Ohlsen
22 Löbauer Stadtwerke - Etixx
23 Vivacom - DataMap
24 Eddie Stobart
@Matt I feel like you misunderstand the method a bit. These calculations include the key components that make up the rider OVL, so I could hardly use them more Yes, time trial has an important weight for stage racing - but that's why there's a separate Climber rating where it does not influence. And my 'tinkering' part had absolutely no effect on Cobbles as all of team's best cobbled riders are not the best in their team at any other terrain. Isotar are relatively lower because they have no good support for Drucker.
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| krisa |
Posted on 09-07-2016 11:54
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3962
Joined: 12-04-2011
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I do feel my top ten ambitions suck
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| Ste117 |
Posted on 09-07-2016 13:05
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3684
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This is where I see how much of a miss Serrano really is going to be and how much it will cost us. That was costy mistake for the season
MG Team manager Team Ticos Air Costa Rica
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 09-07-2016 13:43
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World Champion
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Woo Xero top w/o TT and cobbles
Edited by jandal7 on 12-07-2016 21:32
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 12-07-2016 21:27
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Kraftwerk being placed 1st or 2nd is a great confidence boost but I am starting to feel a bit of pressure on my race planning skills!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 12-07-2016 21:44
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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DaveTwoBob wrote:
Kraftwerk being placed 1st or 2nd is a great confidence boost but I am starting to feel a bit of pressure on my race planning skills!
Same here! My C2HC selections were done without knowing I would have a guy for all terrains, so I may have botched some things. Hope they don't come back to bite me.
On the other hand I think race planning for your riders is generally easier here than in higher divisions. For instance I basically just sent my leaders to the races that suited them best, while in PT you have to think about the route and competition of certain GT's and stage races or it can bust your whole season.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
