We back! The 2020 MGUCI season is only two short days away and we’re in China for the Pro Tour part of the triple season opener. Within a stone’s throw of the Great Wall, we’re ready to get to know the new teams, riders and jerseys - next to a lot of familiar sights as well, of course.
Profile
Also new: the route of this race. Instead of seven laps over the biggest climb of the day, we only have two leading up to the finish and a shorter, more punchy ascent will have to be crossed five times first. The finale is relatively short, simply the first 3.5 kilometers of the ascent for a third time, and it isn’t particularly steep, but it will nevertheless be tackled with high intensity. Both a sprint from a reduced group - like we had last year - and a solo win seem possible. Speaking of last year, the entire Top 10 of 2019 is back again, but we also have a few new challengers. Let’s have a look at the contenders:
Favorites
HI
RS
ST
SP
AC
MO
De Bie
84
76
77
72
75
71
Hagen
84
73
80
72
78
69
Kinoshita
83
77
80
68
77
72
Skujins
83
77
80
68
76
70
Sagan
83
74
78
73
76
74
Lutsenko
83
73
76
72
81
73
Ponzi
83
71
76
75
79
72
Mohoric
83
72
78
67
77
71
Van Garderen
82
75
78
70
79
72
Bakelants
82
75
78
71
75
73
Lopez
82
74
76
66
78
79
Sean De Bie hit the gym in the offseason and it shows. Terrific backup stats combined with a hill stat that is second to none make him the top favorite, not to mention his experience on this course from his fourth place last year. Defending champion Edvald Boasson Hagen on the other hand is starting to feel his age a little bit. But he is still an elite puncheur of course, among the fastest as well, and certainly has a shot at back-to-back wins.
Tomohiro Kinoshita of PT newcomers Rakuten and Toms Skujins (last year’s 9th place) lead the main challengers of the top two mentioned above. Both are terrific classics riders with otherwise unrivaled resistance and stamina, but they're not the fastest, at least in contrast to Peter Sagan - not only last year’s runner up but also the 2017 winner of this race -, Alexey Lutsenko (6th in 2019) and Simone Ponzi. UBS, another recently promoted team, dug deep into their pockets for last year’s third place finisher, and this is the first opportunity for the Italian to show that he’s worth it.
Tejay Van Garderen is on a new team as well, jumping ship from T-Mobile after their relegation to find himself the new classics leader for EA Vesuvio. He is also a Top 10 finisher from last year, as are Matej Mohoric and Jan Bakelants, who round out the main contenders alongside Miguel Angel Lopez - another rider who improved in the offseason, and also the strongest climber among the top favorites, but possibly limited by his role as second-in-comand for Evonik.
Outsiders and Top Domestiques
HI
RS
ST
SP
AC
MO
Kwiatkowski
81
76
74
67
75
78
Buchmann
81
74
73
65
73
76
McCarthy
81
75
80
65
74
67
Koretzky
81
70
77
71
79
71
Gastauer
81
69
77
66
75
70
Boswell
80
73
77
65
76
71
Jensen
80
73
77
66
76
70
Vakoc
80
71
75
71
74
71
Vogt
80
71
78
62
63
62
Formolo
79
76
76
69
71
79
Bystrom
79
72
75
68
76
68
Chernetskiy
79
69
80
63
71
71
Reichenbach
79
69
76
63
69
73
Bellis
78
71
80
74
75
68
Gerts
78
80
76
72
70
66
Teuns
78
73
73
66
72
75
As you would expect, the field of good puncheurs is pretty deep here. Michal Kwiatkowski, one of Aker’s big offseason acquisitions, and wild card hope Emanuel Buchmann headline the outside contenders. The German rides for the same team as before but in a new outfit, as Mapei presents its new colors, replacing the iconic magenta of T-Mobile with a no less iconic jersey.
Jay McCarthy, Clement Koretzky, Ian Boswell, Kristian Haugaard Jensen and Petr Vakoc are really solid leaders, very well rounded with the occasional subpar climbing (McCarthy) or resistance (Koretzky, Vakoc) stat, but all of them could easily jump into the Top 10, maybe even Top 5 on a great day.
Davide Formolo, 11th here last year, is a slightly weaker puncheur than those guys, but makes up for that with strong climbing and backup stats, leaving him virtually without a true weakness, except maybe his lack of speed. The opposite is true for Tinkoff’s leading duo of Mario Vogt, who is a good pure puncheur but also the slowest of all contenders and can’t do longer steady climbs if his life depended on it, and Sergey Chernetskiy, a decent climber with great stamina, but not ideal resistance and speed. Finally, Dylan Teuns is on the lower end of team leaders, decently well-rounded but not exceptional in any aspect.
We also have few of the best domestiques in this tier. First and foremost that is Ben Gastauer, who finds himself in this role for the first time but could very well still be capable of a good result of his own. Then there’s Sven Erik Bystrom, Sebastien Reichenbach, Jonathan Bellis and Florian Gerts. The latter will really shine on the cobblestones later in the spring, but his great resistance and stamina combined with a good hill stat make him a very intriguing rider for races like this as well.
Honorable Mentions
HI
RS
ST
SP
AC
MO
Taaramäe
77
79
78
59
75
84
Guldhammer
77
75
74
70
76
81
Kump
77
73
76
81
80
66
Arndt
76
76
77
71
75
79
Roglic
76
76
75
69
74
80
On pure puncheur strength alone, these riders would not make the list, but the overall prowess of top stage racers like Rein Taaramäe, Rasmus Guldhammer and Primoz Roglic plus the combination of hill and elite sprint capabilities of former world champion Marko Kump - now riding for Nordstrom, the second wild card team here - deserve a mention. Nikias Arndt is named here by virtue of his 10th place last year.
The only teams without a solid contender at the start line are Bennelong - Mitchelton and Grieg-Maersk, who go with more of a leader-by-committee approach, hoping that one of their riders has a great day and slips into the Top 20.
32 riders are listed in this preview and a good dozen more could have been, which should give you an impression of the tough field we have for this season opener. For many riders, a Top 15 is just as much in the range of outcomes as a result outside of the Top 25. And the podium is wide open as well. The stage is set for an exciting race!
The number of high HI riders is huge. Very curious what Formolo can do here thanks to his climbing skill. The two longer climbs before the final burst should in theory hurt the legs of the guys with low MO, but that also depends on the right tempo being developed.
What will probably become quite a familiar ISA - Hexacta 1-day hilly race line-up with the exception of Berhane who makes a surprise appearance (just the right amount of RD's left for a start here and 1 other maybe slightly surprising outing later in the season). Vakoc leads the line, and is a rung or two below the division heavy-weights. If he is steady throughout the season with 1 or 2 small over-performances, will meet expectations. His support crew is decent, so all-round team scoring on this terrain will be important to our battle to avoid the relegation fate that all the previews (quite rightly) have us in line for.
We will be starting off the year hoping to scrape together a few depth points here and there. Teuns did really well doing exactly this throughout last season (adding a few surprising performances in stage races), while I'm mostly interested about what exactly Talansky can do in a 'weird' race like this one.
Don't really think anything better than a top 20 or thereabouts is really in the cards, but hilly classics are not really my team's main strength this year at all.
Thanks for the preview cunego, looking forward to the racing
In actuality, not sure how this will go. Not sure if the pure climber guys like Arndt and Guldhammer will win, but I think Lopez and Kwiato could be solid podium contenders. Im hoping it ends up being a race for the hill specialists tho, but if it comes to a sprint Kinoshita has a bit of a weakness on a lot of the others.
Hoping the hill classics to be enjoyable this year with two decent options - as with recent seasons though, the target is just to get Top 10, so hopefully Van Garderen can achieve that.
Not the ideal profile for Lutsenko, so I'd be happy if he could repeat last year's result. Maybe Gidich can do something as well.
I'm happy the season is starting. Thanks for the great preview cunego and I'm looking forward to the report.
Let's go MAL, start your maxed life with a win here
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
And this could be a season defining race for us, as Taaramäe has been given several races this year rated as "hilly", based on how incredibly well he did last season on the hills. It's a big chance to take, but however it goes I'm okay with it, as it will be cool to see Taaramäe do something new with this AI, instead of going the "safe" route of doing Paris-Nice or Dauphine. Though, I could very well regret that if either him or Kwiatkowski doesn't perform in the races they do together, as that could quickly see us fight to avoid relegation.
And thank you for the preview, cunego59. Obviously looking forward to the report
First race of MA Lopez as a maxed rider and i'm excited to see him in action and at the same time, I'm frightened to see whether sending Lopez and Skujins as double leaders to races will be a terrible mistake that ruins my season.
Love the support for MAL by some of you, i hope the hype will be deserved
Spoiler
Let's get it started, in here
And the team keeps ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin',
and ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin', and ridin' ridin'...
Badaling International 
Low expectations, but hope to see us in the break and possibly around top 30 from the peloton.
