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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2020
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Posted on 21-12-2024 16:13
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-11-2020 18:33
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Format Reminder
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Desigual | 1 |  | ISA - Hexacta | -18 | | 2 |  | Minions | 2 |  | Volvo acc. by Spotify | -2 | | 3 |  | Kulczyk - Alitalia | 3 |  | Rakuten Pro Cycling | -2 | | 4 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 4 |  | Team UBS | -4 | | 5 | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | 5 |  | cycleYorkshire | -11 | | 6 |  | Duolingo | 6 |  | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | -15 | | 7 |  | Philips | 7 |  | Delvaux | -5 | | 8 | | Team UBS | 8 |  | Campari/Asahi development | -15 | | 9 |  | Team Europcar | 9 | | Duolingo | 3 | | 10 |  | Valio - Viking Genetics | 10 | | Valio - Viking Genetics | 0 | | 11 |  | ENI - MOL | 11 | | Desigual | 10 | | 12 | | Delvaux | 12 |  | Xero Racing | -5 | | 13 |  | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 13 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 0 | | 14 |  | Carrefour - ESPN | 14 | | Minions | 12 | | 15 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 15 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | -9 | | 16 | | cycleYorkshire | 16 |  | Berg Cycles | -4 | | 17 | | Xero Racing | 17 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 2 | | 18 |  | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 18 |  | Swisslion Cycling Team | -7 | | 19 | | ISA - Hexacta | 19 | | Kulczyk - Alitalia | 16 | | 20 | | Berg Cycles | 20 | | ENI - MOL | 9 | | 21 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 21 |  | Andorra Cycling Project | -1 | | 22 | | Andorra Cycling Project | 22 | | Carrefour - ESPN | 8 | | 23 | | Campari/Asahi development | 23 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 5 | | 24 | | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 24 | | Team Europcar | 15 | | 25 | | Swisslion Cycling Team | 25 | | Philips | 18 | | 26 |  | Sauber Petronas Racing | 26 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 0 |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-11-2020 18:33
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Team Manager
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Category Tier Lists
Hills
| Polar | | | GCN Racing | Mapei | Campari Asahi Procycling | | Swisslion | Farfetch Pro Cycling | MOL | | Aramco DP | Duolingo | | Desigual | Team Popo4Ever | Xero Racing |
There's a competitive field in the hills this season, with no huge standout rider or team, and close gaps between the tiers.
Polar come top with Izagirre and Betancourt to call on.
Schreurs for GCN, Buchmann for Mapei see them next - Campari are interesting team in 4th then, very much there for having two possible options in Slagter, and then Di Maggio as 2nd.
Beltran is seen as the top individual rider but Swisslion suffer for the lack of support he has - and that's something that could well influence the racing too, if they are expected to chase down moves.
One interesting thing to note though - Philips would top this tier list still, with Kelderman. Watch out for the C1 races there then!
Stage Races
| | Desigual | | | | | | Team Popo4Ever | MOL | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Fablok | Bakkafrost | Duolingo | Farfetch | Repsol | Lierse | | | Minions | | | |
Three teams top the tree here. Tenorio now looks to be the strongest in the division, and Desigual are top. Pluchkin remains a commanding threat, and he has Padun for support. MOL bring Cattaneo and Choi together.
A range of teams then competing in the next tier down - with hopes for the likes of Wellens, Monsalve, Gesink, Kudus and Oomen - while Farfetch have the comparable pairing of Yates and Carthy.
Sprints
| Berg Cycles | Podium Ambition | | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | | | | MOL | | | | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | | | Nordstrom | Swisslion | Bakkafrost | Xero Racing | | Mapei | Adastra | |
Berg Cycles have brought in Swift to go with Silvestre, and this partnership gives them the edge over Caleb Ewan's Podium Ambition.
Gaviria and Bonifazio should be good options for Lierse, while MOL can call on Lo Cicero and Maksimov - fast, but can they be consistent?
Kemboi, Guarnieri, Guerao and Kump the other top rated individuals, and their teams do come next.
Time Trials
| | Repsol - Netflix | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Desigual | Mapei | | | | | | | | | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | | | Polar | Duolingo | GCN Racing | DK - SVA Zalgiris | Minions |
With Zmorka, Kittel and Gonzalez Salas, it is no surprise to see Repsol top the standings here.
Fraile is well-rated for Desigual, while Fiedler is the star for Mapei.
4th is not particularly close to 1st in this tier, but in there are Farfetch, with Paillot, just ahead of other teams with some credible TT options.
Cobbles
| Andorra Cycling Project | | | | | | | | | | | | Podium Ambition | | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | Mapei | Valio - Viking Genetics | | Minions | | | Bakkafrost | Xero Racing | Repsol - Netflix |
So determined where Andorra to stand out on the cobbles, that they were willing to spend big money to prevent a PCT rival from signing Vanspeybrouck, bringing him in alongside Summerhill. Having two of the top three riders clearly works well for a tier list like this, but will it work well in the season itself?
Altur's leadership puts Podium Ambition into the next tier, infront of Lierse (Vanbilsen) and Trentin (Mapei). The support options for Daniel also help Valio into the Top 5.
Climbs
| Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | | | | MOL | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | Desigual | DK - SVA Zalgiris | | Repsol - Netflix | | | Fablok - Chocolate Jacques | Kraftwerk Man Machine |
This category prioritises more of the mountain-only ability, as well as depth in that terrain - as a rider can't be seen as a team's best rider in this category if they are the best in another category. It has the smallest weighting of the six to overall predictions, and might not make as much sense in isolation - but I'll include it for completeness!
Carthy, Padun, Choi, Nerz and Intxausti are the top riders ranked #1 in their team for this category, and supported by their respective team leader, are key for their teams featuring here.
All Category Positions
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL |  Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling | 18 | 20 | 11 | 17 | 13 | 19 |  Andorra Cycling Project | 25 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 1 | 25 |  Aramco DP | 8 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 16 |  Azteca - NBCSN | 15 | 11 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 10 |  Bakkafrost | 23 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 7 | 20 |  Berg Cycles | 13 | 17 | 1 | 25 | 26 | 14 |  Campari Asahi Procycling | 4 | 23 | 23 | 10 | 10 | 24 |  Desigual | 10 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 23 | 4 |  DK - SVA Zalgiris | 20 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 22 | 5 |  Duolingo | 9 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 21 | 12 |  Fablok - Chocolate Jacques | 14 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 7 |  Farfetch Pro Cycling | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 3 |  GCN Racing | 2 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 17 |  Kraftwerk Man Machine | 17 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 8 |  Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 21 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 18 |  Mapei | 3 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 15 |  Minions | 16 | 10 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 21 |  MOL | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 2 |  Nordstrom - CA Technologies | 19 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 11 | 22 |  Podium Ambition | 26 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 26 |  Polar | 1 | 12 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 23 |  Repsol - Netflix | 24 | 8 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 6 |  Swisslion Cycling Team | 5 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 11 |  Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 11 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 24 | 1 |  Valio - Viking Genetics | 22 | 19 | 17 | 20 | 5 | 13 |  Xero Racing | 12 | 18 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 9 |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-11-2020 18:33
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Team Manager
Posts: 33046
Joined: 08-03-2007
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Overall Predictions
R1 and R2 of my overall ranking positions are just based around those last specific position ranks, while R3 and R4 look at the rating scores awarded to teams across those categories.
The next graph shows R3 against R4, and gives a suggestion for an overall tier list.
Six teams emerge as favourites for the five promotion positions. Within that, Farfetch are predicted to win the title, but MOL are also looking strong for what could be their best ever season.
Mapei being the 3rd team, also with Desigual, Popo4Ever and Lierse.
Minions then seen as being around 7th, just ahead of a very close looking midfield - with lots of evenly matched teams.
Across the predictions, there are seven teams seen as being in the relegation fight. Campari, Valio, Aramco, Nordstrom, Adastra, Azteca, and Andorra.
As Top 10 finishers last year, this would be disappointing for Valio and Campari I would imagine - and in the overall prediction, they are seen as the last two to survive. Campari were predicted to relegate last year anyway, so there is that!
Indeed, if last year's predictions are anything to go by, there could well be a mix of teams predicted close to their eventual positions, and some certainly not. But will that be your team? We shall have to see what the season brings.
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 2 | MOL | | 3 | Mapei | | 4 | Desigual | | 5 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 6 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 7 | Minions | | 8 | Polar | | 9 | Xero Racing | | 10 | Repsol - Netflix | | 11 | Duolingo | | 12 | Swisslion Cycling Team | | 13 | Bakkafrost | | 14 | DK - SVA Zalgiris | | 15 | Podium Ambition | | 16 | GCN Racing | | 17 | Fablok - Chocolate Jacques | | 18 | Berg Cycles | | 19 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 20 | Campari Asahi Procycling | | 21 | Valio - Viking Genetics | | 22 | Aramco DP | | 23 | Nordstrom - CA Technologies | | 24 | Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling | | 25 | Azteca - NBCSN | | 26 | Andorra Cycling Project |
Contributing Ranking Predictions
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | 1 | FARF | FARF | FARF | MOL | | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 2 | MAPE | MOL | MOL | FARF | | MOL | | 3 | MOL | DESI | MAPE | MAPE | | Mapei | | 4 | DESI | MAPE | DESI | LIER | | Desigual | | 5 | XERO | POPO | LIER | DESI | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 6 | POPO | POLA | POPO | POPO | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 7 | SWIS | DUOL | MINI | MINI | | Minions | | 8 | DUOL | REPS | PODI | BAKK | | Polar | | 9 | POLA | LIER | REPS | XERO | | Xero Racing | | 10 | REPS | MINI | POLA | POLA | | Repsol - Netflix | | 11 | MINI | SWIS | DK Z | BERG | | Duolingo | | 12 | GCN | FABL | XERO | PODI | | Swisslion Cycling Team | | 13 | LIER | XERO | BAKK | SWIS | | Bakkafrost | | 14 | DK Z | DK Z | DUOL | DUOL | | DK - SVA Zalgiris | | 15 | FABL | BAKK | GCN | REPS | | Podium Ambition | | 16 | KRAF | GCN | SWIS | DK Z | | GCN Racing | | 17 | BAKK | BERG | BERG | GCN | | Fablok - Chocolate Jacques | | 18 | PODI | CAMP | VALI | FABL | | Berg Cycles | | 19 | CAMP | KRAF | FABL | KRAF | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 20 | ARAM | PODI | KRAF | NORD | | Campari Asahi Procycling | | 21 | BERG | AZTE | CAMP | ADAS | | Valio - Viking Genetics | | 22 | VALI | ARAM | ANDO | VALI | | Aramco DP | | 23 | ADAS | VALI | NORD | ARAM | | Nordstrom - CA Technologies | | 24 | AZTE | NORD | ADAS | CAMP | | Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling | | 25 | NORD | ADAS | AZTE | AZTE | | Azteca - NBCSN | | 26 | ANDO | ANDO | ARAM | ANDO | | Andorra Cycling Project |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 01-11-2020 18:41
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2919
Joined: 07-08-2011
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Always enjoy these! Obviously not a whole lot to say about us, with good reason, I do think that your assesment of us is correct however doomy it is.
Edited by whitejersey on 01-11-2020 19:32
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 01-11-2020 19:08
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2938
Joined: 09-05-2011
PCM$: 300.00
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As I've expected in the previews - a fight with Aramco, Nordstrom, Valio and Campari. What surprises me is that Azeteca isn't the consensus bottom feeder this time around
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 01-11-2020 19:20
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 18187
Joined: 12-05-2012
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You've got us clear of the real dogfight in most cases, and even up towards promotion in one! I'll take it as further vindication to double down on the dual-focus this season ahead of a bigger change up.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 01-11-2020 19:58
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Small Tour Specialist
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Seems pretty accurate to me, although I do think I am higher than 20th on hills purely due to a lot of depth we have.
Good stuff
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 01-11-2020 20:53
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World Champion
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This has got to be our best prediction ever, but I think the R1 will be more accurate.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 01-11-2020 21:23
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World Champion
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Always interesting to see your previews SN and nice touch with the tier lists for each terrains this year - glad to get on a few  Another ninth place prediction does instill a bit of confidence in my Top 10 Standings goal, but when it's ahead of Duolingo and Repsol it gets taken away a bit - especially as we all know what Repsol are willing to do to us if we're rankings rivals
Glad we're not in any kind of relegation fight in your different methods, even a promotion candidate in Round 1 is pretty impressive, though pure fantasy in my eyes
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 02-11-2020 02:08
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4191
Joined: 13-09-2015
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Not a surprise being so low in this ranking given i completely ignore two terrains, so that really drag us down in your calculations, despite being Top10 at least in all the others.
Really hope this predictions turns out to be awfully bad 
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| redordead |
Posted on 02-11-2020 06:15
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4910
Joined: 18-10-2017
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Underrated last year and overrated this year?
Hopefully the truth is somewhere in the middle and we can finish comfortably above the relegation zone 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| the_hoyle |
Posted on 02-11-2020 08:28
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7651
Joined: 28-05-2009
PCM$: 200.00
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I'll take it - another one where we survive which is what we want
.: Manager of :.
.: My Awards :.
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 02-11-2020 10:19
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Classics Specialist
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Mathematical previews are pretty bad with only 1 big leader in the team, so i expect more than 17th
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 02-11-2020 12:05
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Team Manager
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TheManxMissile wrote:
You've got us clear of the real dogfight in most cases, and even up towards promotion in one! I'll take it as further vindication to double down on the dual-focus this season ahead of a bigger change up.
Aquarius97 wrote:
Not a surprise being so low in this ranking given i completely ignore two terrains, so that really drag us down in your calculations, despite being Top10 at least in all the others.
I have looked to account for teams ignoring terrains in there - especially in not unduly punishing teams who ranked are >18th in a terrain, when it comes to R3 and R4 - so indeed that's what helps keep Podium Ambition clear of relegation predictions.
Repsol though probably not faring quite as well in R4 due to the fact that I have TTs on one of the lowest weightings of the categories - so if that goes well for you, perhaps that weighting should be adjusted!
sgdanny wrote:
Mathematical previews are pretty bad with only 1 big leader in the team, so i expect more than 17th
Well you do have 97 RD without Wellens, and no guarantee that Wellens will start as favourite for any of his races, depending on the calendars of others. So we'll see!
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| jph27 |
Posted on 02-11-2020 13:07
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Team Leader
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I always like the data-based predictions SN, and I enjoyed this one even if I think it's putting a curse on my team
Have to say that it's great to see us being top 7 on every terrain except cobbles. One of the things I've tried to do over the past few seasons is build a roster with no real superstars but plenty of depth on each terrain, so it's a real vindication to see it appear to have worked. Hopefully with Menten, Salzmann and van den Berg maxing next season we can be top 10 on the cobbles as well, although the data seems to think we'll be PT - in which case I'll need to add leaders to that depth!
However, I don't think PCM will like my team as much as the numbers do. The lack of a real top tier leader on any terrain is likely to hold us back a little, especially as we don't have the depth that other teams do - we're very similar to ISA last season, until you realise that they had 8 point scorers in every race, compared to our 4 (with 4 talents). Still, if we can do our usual trick of missing our predicted slot by 3-5 places then we should be in for a decent season. |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 02-11-2020 22:48
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Another prediction in line with the high midtable omen. Thanks.
Interesting to see Farfetch at the top. Wouldn't say it's the most obvious prediction but certainly a meritable one.
Teams with an "A" as initial seem to be a risk factor for relegation
Looking forward to see how this grows old. Thanks SN!
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| Heine |
Posted on 04-11-2020 08:48
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Joined: 08-04-2007
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Worst 4th, best 2nd. I can accept that
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![imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg](https://imgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpg)
