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Slightly Mathematical PCT Preview 2019
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:04
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
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PCM$: 200.00
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Format Reminder
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 1 |  | Generali - EDF | -15 | | 2 |  | Ayubowan! | 2 |  | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | -1 | | 3 | | SPAR - Shimano - SCG | 3 |  | Repsol - Netflix | -14 | | 4 |  | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | 4 |  | Fablok - Bank BGZ | -2 | | 5 |  | Meiji - JR East | 5 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 4 | | 6 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 6 |  | Podium Ambition | -5 | | 7 |  | Philips - Continental | 7 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | -12 | | 8 |  | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 8 | | Ayubowan! | 6 | | 9 |  | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 9 |  | Kulczyk - DMTEX | -1 | | 10 | | Kulczyk - DMTEX | 10 |  | Team Reddit | -12 | | 11 | | Podium Ambition | 11 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 3 | | 12 |  | cycleYorkshire | 12 | | Meiji - JR East | 7 | | 13 |  | Minions | 13 | | Minions | 0 | | 14 |  | World Cycling Centre | 14 |  | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | -7 | | 15 |  | Carrefour - ESPN | 15 |  | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | -5 | | 16 | | Generali - EDF | 16 | | Novatek-Panarmenian.net | 12 | | 17 | | Repsol - Netflix | 17 | | World Cycling Centre | 3 | | 18 |  | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 18 | | Philips - Continental | 11 | | 19 | | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 19 | | cycleYorkshire | 7 | | 20 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 20 | | Carrefour - ESPN | 5 | | 21 | | Xero Racing p/b Octagon | 21 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 3 | | 22 | | Team Reddit | 22 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 13 | | 23 |  | Euskaltel - Elior | 23 |  | Netia - Vónin | -1 | | 24 | | Netia - Vónin | 24 |  | Nordstrom - BioWare | -1 | | 25 | | Nordstrom - BioWare | 25 | | Euskaltel - Elior | 2 | | 26 |  | Azteca - NBCSN | 26 | | Azteca - NBCSN | 0 |
Well, it would be boring if it could be accurately predicted right? 15 teams 5 or fewer places out, with some good close predictions, and some way off.
Spectacularly wrong with Generali and Repsol, meaning I only got 3 of the Top 6 teams right. A bit stronger at the very bottom though, with the bottom 4 teams all predicted in place, if not quite the right order.
Of my 4 component ranks, R2 was slightly closer than the overall prediction, but not by too much.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:04
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Category Rankings
| Hills | Stage Races | Sprints | | 1 | Rakuten Pro Cycling | Team Popo4Ever | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | 2 | Swisslion Cycling Team | Desigual | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 3 | Philips | Team UBS | Delvaux | | 4 | ENI - MOL | Minions | Team Europcar | | 5 | Duolingo | Berg Cycles | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 6 | Minions | Campari/Asahi | Berg Cycles | | 7 | Delvaux | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Philips | | 8 | Team Europcar | ENI - MOL | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | | 9 | ISA - Hexacta | Duolingo | Xero Racing | | 10 | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Valio - Viking Genetics | Duolingo | | | | | | Time Trial | Cobbles | Climbs | | 1 | Carrefour - ESPN | Andorra Cycling Project | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | 2 | cycleYorkshire | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | Team Europcar | | 3 | Desigual | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Team UBS | | 4 | Valio - Viking Genetics | Team UBS | Philips | | 5 | Duolingo | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Berg Cycles | | 6 | Team UBS | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo | Duolingo | | 7 | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Minions | Team Popo4Ever | | 8 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | Carrefour - ESPN | ISA - Hexacta | | 9 | Kulczyk - Alitalia | Rakuten Pro Cycling | Desigual | | 10 | Delvaux | Xero Racing | Andorra Cycling Project |
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL | | Andorra Cycling Project | 21 | 22 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | | Berg Cycles | 18 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 25 | 5 | | Campari/Asahi development | 25 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 11 | 19 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 24 | 21 | 13 | 16 | 2 | 17 | | Carrefour - ESPN | 19 | 23 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 23 | | cycleYorkshire | 23 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 25 | | Delvaux | 7 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 21 | | Desigual | 12 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 18 | 9 | | Duolingo | 5 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 6 | | ENI - MOL | 4 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 13 | | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 22 | 26 | 1 | 24 | 17 | 26 | | ISA - Hexacta | 9 | 14 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 8 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 14 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 12 | | Kulczyk - Alitalia | 10 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 1 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 13 | 15 | 8 | 26 | 6 | 20 | | Minions | 6 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 11 | | Philips | 3 | 12 | 7 | 20 | 15 | 4 | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | 1 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 14 | | Sauber Petronas Racing | 17 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 18 | | Swisslion Cycling Team | 2 | 24 | 11 | 25 | 23 | 24 | | Team Europcar | 8 | 13 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 2 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 16 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 26 | 7 | | Team UBS | 26 | 3 | 26 | 6 | 4 | 3 | | Valio - Viking Genetics | 15 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 16 | 16 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 11 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 22 | | Xero Racing | 20 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 15 |
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Desigual | | 2 | Minions | | 3 | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | 4 | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 5 | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | 6 | Duolingo | | 7 | Philips | | 8 | Team UBS | | 9 | Team Europcar | | 10 | Valio - Viking Genetics | | 11 | ENI - MOL | | 12 | Delvaux | | 13 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 14 | Carrefour - ESPN | | 15 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 16 | cycleYorkshire | | 17 | Xero Racing | | 18 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 19 | ISA - Hexacta | | 20 | Berg Cycles | | 21 | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 22 | Andorra Cycling Project | | 23 | Campari/Asahi development | | 24 | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | 25 | Swisslion Cycling Team | | 26 | Sauber Petronas Racing |
So my first takeaway is that it looks like a competitive division with three different teams topping the ranking options, with others up there too. In all, the Top 8 do seems to stand out a bit from the rest - with Minions, Kulczyk, Rakuten and Philips in amongst relegating PT teams Desigual, Volvo, Duolingo and UBS.
After that, Valio, ENI and Delvaux lead the predictions on the promoted CT teams. And if being predicted 16th and 17th is the key for promoting, as last year, then it's good news for cycleYorkshire and Xero!
At the bottom, there's a fairly clear dislike for Sauber, Swisslion and Iberia. But Iberia were one of the most under-predicted teams in last year's predictions; and there's every chance they will be similarly out on them this year too, I think! Campari and Andorra the other two PCT newcomers predicted to face a hard time.
Relegation for Pluchkin? Double relegation for Berg? Not quite, but not far off apparently!
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | | 1 | KUL | KUL | VOL | DES | | DES | Desigual | | 2 | DES | DUO | MIN | VOL | | MIN | Minions | | 3 | DUO | DES | DES | MIN | | KUL | Kulczyk - Alitalia | | 4 | MIN | MIN | RAK | RAK | | VOL | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 5 | PHI | PHI | CAR | PHI | | RAK | Rakuten Pro Cycling | | 6 | VOL | EUR | CYC | KUL | | DUO | Duolingo | | 7 | RAK | VOL | KUL | UBS | | PHI | Philips | | 8 | EUR | UBS | UBS | ENI | | UBS | Team UBS | | 9 | UBS | RAK | VAL | VAL | | EUR | Team Europcar | | 10 | ENI | BER | DUO | DUO | | VAL | Valio - Viking Genetics | | 11 | KMM | ENI | CDB | DEL | | ENI | ENI - MOL | | 12 | DEL | POP | PHI | KMM | | DEL | Delvaux | | 13 | VAL | KMM | DEL | XER | | KMM | Kraftwerk Man Machine | | 14 | BER | DEL | AND | EUR | | CAR | Carrefour - ESPN | | 15 | ISA | ISA | XER | LIE | | LIE | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | | 16 | POP | LIE | LIE | CDB | | CYC | cycleYorkshire | | 17 | LIE | VAL | CAM | CAM | | XER | Xero Racing | | 18 | CAR | CAR | KMM | CAR | | CDB | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | | 19 | XER | AND | EUR | CYC | | ISA | ISA - Hexacta | | 20 | AND | CYC | ISA | ISA | | BER | Berg Cycles | | 21 | CDB | XER | ENI | AND | | POP | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | | 22 | CYC | CDB | POP | POP | | AND | Andorra Cycling Project | | 23 | CAM | CAM | BER | BER | | CAM | Campari/Asahi development | | 24 | SWI | SWI | IBE | IBE | | IBE | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | | 25 | IBE | IBE | SAU | SWI | | SWI | Swisslion Cycling Team | | 26 | SAU | SAU | SWI | SAU | | SAU | Sauber Petronas Racing |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 08-12-2025 19:17
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:11
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7776
Joined: 04-07-2012
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The maths were spot on for the Minions last year, I'm hoping it will be the case again this year.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:28
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7802
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 750.00
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Well, then. I don't know if I like this pressure. I'm positive I messed up my race calendar, so winning the division is unlikely. Gunning for promotion but it's going to be a challenge. A lot of parity across the division with a bunch of decent teams.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:56
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16557
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Last year we were predicted 18th and finished 21st. Predicted 18th again... I guess we'll take 21st, although I'd prefer for it to be a bit less stressful than last time.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:57
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10519
Joined: 28-09-2013
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Ah glad to see preview season has been kicked off (for PCT at least!).
These fully maths-based types are always fun, I remember they were slightly more accurate over the past few seasons - wasn't one of yours actually the most close to reality 2-3 years ago? - so 2018 must have been an off year for sure.
I assume it didn't help that my team was so depth-reliant which is not quite something the model tends to favour (correct me if I'm wrong), but we are also kind of an outlier compared to past winning teams in the way the roster was built.
Most teams predicted at the top look fit to take on PCT but yeah I agree there's no absolute clear cut standout. Several extremely strong and complete teams though, I love that a multitude of rosters with no more than one weak area seem to populate this year's PCT.
EDIT: Went through my old MG sheets and yes, the model was indeed the most accurate in 2016's PCT, the year Heine won for reference.
Edited by matt17br on 21-10-2019 22:02
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-10-2019 21:57
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15027
Joined: 08-08-2011
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You were 13 off last year, I hope you'll do the same this year 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 21-10-2019 22:06
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Not a team built for the statistical ones I suppose (7 above last year  ) but still not far off of where I'm hoping to be - and hoping that 16/17th jinx happens again, I think it could well do for cycleYorkshire at least. As always very interesting to see this, thanks a lot!
And agree with what matt said, no real standouts for me either and I have found it quite hard when doing my own quick prediction. All set for an exciting division and I'm looking forward to preview season!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-10-2019 22:23
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Team Leader
Posts: 6178
Joined: 20-07-2008
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Interesting as always. I han't thought of Kulczyk has top contenders, but I have to agree with your calculations. The uncanny semblance between our team and Rakuten helps justify the proximity in your prediction.
Desigual and Minions could be the most serious contenders for the title I guess.
I hope I can beat your prediction by one place at least. Cheers and thanks for sharing!
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| Atlantius |
Posted on 21-10-2019 23:08
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Team Leader
Posts: 6753
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Seeing as this is usually one of the most accurate I'm extremely happy to see my team so highly ranked. I don't think we will be a top 10 team, but it does give hope that we can stay clear of relegation.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 21-10-2019 23:38
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
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I'm not someone to disregard statistic but my expectations fall well above that 22nd 
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| redordead |
Posted on 22-10-2019 03:26
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Team Leader
Posts: 5513
Joined: 18-10-2017
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No surprises here as I've known for a while I'm likely going down 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Bjartne |
Posted on 22-10-2019 06:09
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3061
Joined: 15-07-2007
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Wow, mathematically 9th place? I wasn't even sure to stay up, so if we can get a mid-table that would be fantastic!  |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 22-10-2019 06:40
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I don't like being predicted so high. Just see last year for reference! And I don't quite believe at the moment we can go as high as we're predicted. Would love for the prediction to be right though
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| viking90 |
Posted on 22-10-2019 19:36
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Classics Specialist
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Feels good seeing our team up there fighting in this prediction even without a good climber or stage racer. |
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 23-10-2019 02:30
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World Champion
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Definitely agree with us being the strongest hill squad. Of course, not many races that Froome or Serry even need to be the leader, so perhaps that wont even matter that much. (Mostly due to not getting my #2 band I think).
I very much hope we can finish Top 5. Top 1 would be even better though, but Desigual and Minions look like the best teams to me atleast after very quick scan of the db.
I think we've been predicted by basically every prediction anyone has ever made in the past 3 years to promote and it hasn't happened yet, so not getting my hopes up, but always an encouraging sign that Im atleast competent at the team building aspect, even if I must then be terrible at race planning.
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