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International Österreich Rundfahrt Discussion
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| Vien |
Posted on 09-05-2019 05:50
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
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 Int. Osterreich Rundfahrt
Good morning lads and gals and welcome to the preview of the 2018 International Österreich Rundfahrt! The best stage racers of the Pro Continental Tour have gathered for a nice mini-GT in the alps. And it should be an interesting race for sure, as with three mountain stages, a mountain/hill stage and a TT finish, none of them can cruise to a good result!
The riders of this edition would all love to add their name to an impressive list of previous winners.Schleck, Alarcon, Dekker... They've all won here before. And so has Amador, who won last year. But due to his team's promotion to the PT, he won't be able to defend his title.
Let's look into the stages a bit closer, shall we? We start off with the hardest stage, which consists an an almost mountaintop finish. But the six laps around a large hill should make the favourites quite tired once they arrive at its foot already. It'ss followed by an easier stage but an actual MTF, a sprinter stage that has some tough hills, and another mountain stage with a downhill finish. The second part of the stage race is slightly less mountainous, with a hillier stage, a flat sprinter stage and finally, a TT that should seal the deal for the general classification.
When looking at the favourites, obviously the ability to climb comes first. But with the hilly stage 5 and the TT, the hill and TT stats may also become very valuable. And looking at the whole package, only one rider can be named as the top favourite, which is Pluchkin. The leader of the PCT individual standings is not only the best climber of the peloton, but also has zero weaknesses. Anything but a dominating victory should be a huge surprise.
His main competitors should be home rider Denifl and certaily not home rider Urán. Denifl is the better climber but has weaker substats. Urán has a better TT stat and is a more allround rider. They should both be aiming for a top 3 here.
The last rider who could be names as a top favourite is Xero's Velits. Around the same stats as Úran, though his acceleration may hurt him a little in a stage or two. Though especially since the hillier stage has a long final climb, this weakness may be less of a burden than expected, and he should have a chance of going for a top 3, too.
Following these four, there's an impressive group of outdsiders whose managers could be hungry for a surprise. Starting off with Monsalve, Kudus and Berhane. All very good climbers and puncheurs, but they should lack that little bit extra to go for victory. Berhane also might lose a bit of time on the final TT. Still, a top 5 is very reachable for them.
Henao Montoya, Eastman and Keizer have the same climbing abilities, but they will face problems getting over the hills in stage 5. Keizer may make up this time loss in the final stage however, as he's the best time trialist of the favourites. The rest will have to find a way to win time on the mountain stages.
More balanced riders who would want to go for a top 10, or even more, are Roglic, Talansky, Carthy, Penasa, Brenes and and Garby. Especially Roglic (mountain skills) and Talansky (puncheur) should get some air time in their stronger stages.
And lastly some more riders who can't get over the hills very well, but might surprise in the mountains, are Nazaret, Duarte and Pantano Gomez.
The GC isn't everything though, as there will also be a fight for stage wins. The hilly stage will likely be won by a stage racer though, as the only decent pure puncheur who has joined is Nordstrom's Tm Diggle. So we'll focus on the other stages. Starting off with the sprints. Two entirely different sprinter stages: One mountainous, one flat.
Appolonio is the best sprinter here, and would be disappointed not to win at least one stage. Petit, Granjel Cabrera, Bouhanni and Serebriakov all have the top speed to beat him on a good day. Lay, Van der Sande, Bennett and Krieger need to rely on their substats, or good positioning, to bring home the points.
In stage 3 however, climbing potential may be vital in order to be fresh the final kilometers. If this is the case, Granjel Cabrera, Van der Sande, Pelucchi and espcially Kreder may shoot up this list of favourites.
Historically, stage racers always do better in later time trials. This means Keizer, Pluchkin and Úran should easily be considered as the favourites to win the final stage. Pure time trialists who will try to save themselves until the final stage and outperform them are Mullen, Janse van Rensburg, Li and many, many more.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 09-05-2019 09:34
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
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Easy win expected. Support is not the greatest, but should be sufficient.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 09-05-2019 10:41
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
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Velits to come ninth with a huge crack, a huge comeback and then behaving like a normal rider for 1/4 decisive stages, Tosh to get a fourth, a sixth and a ninth, and no breaks. That’s about how every stage race has gone for us so far  Thanks for a detailed preview Vien!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 09-05-2019 11:26
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World Champion
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I'm always up for a surprise
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 09-05-2019 13:43
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
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Glad we are on the move again . Thanks Vien.
Most of the PCT stage race 'big-hitters' in attendance, so 5-10th looks like Berhane's target window on GC. The TT at the end isn't his forte, so giving a good account of himself in the mountains and the hill day will be required. As not among the top favourites will be interesting to see if one of his domestiques takes the chance to get in the BotD on one of the harder days. Lay for the sprints isn't totally outclassed by the opposition on the start-sheet, but the difficult stage 3 parcours may be beyond him if raced hard, and who knows what condition he'll be in come stage 6. Hence he has no specific lead-out assistance (maybe Arrisol can do some early positioning work), and will then look to surf wheels as appropriate.
Hard to see beyond Plu-bear for overall victory in this go-round Austria, but should be good battles behind him for the podium, top 5 and top 10 bragging rights.
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 09-05-2019 14:13
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Appo better freaking win a stage and podium both. Somehow he's better when competition is harder, but that won't stand here. It's a perfect opportunity for him. He has to execute. I regret not giving him a true leadout, but he should have enough flat guys to get him in a decent position.
Other than that, nothing to hope for. Garby sucks and anything beyond a TT top 10-15 would be a welcome surprise.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 09-05-2019 17:58
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Grand Tour Champion
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Thanks for the preview Vien. Rooting for R.Ú...! No clue why his name has to be censored on the startlist, he's not a criminal or something 
Pluchking should normally win this one
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 09-05-2019 23:21
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Posts: 2433
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Thanks for the preview Vien.
Anything more than zero points will be a result for Kraftwerk
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 10-05-2019 05:47
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Directeur Sportif
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Hill and TT doesn't suit Henao, so unless he comes up with something special on the mountains, getting that Top 5 looks unlikely. Top 10 looks more realistic. It's also his final race of the season! Don't really expect much from the rest of the team. Just hope they keep up the good domestique work from the last month.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 10-05-2019 08:16
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Grand Tour Champion
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 10-05-2019 08:42
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World Champion
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Poor positioning by Senni, hope he recovers for the next stage.
Congrats Marco!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 24-11-2024 10:10
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 10-05-2019 11:06
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Great start from the team. Costa on a breakaway mission for the first time in a long time and a brilliant ride from Pantano! Henao not losing any time is good.
Congrats Marco
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 10-05-2019 13:33
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
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Garby's about where I expected - terrible, behind several riders he should never lose to stats wise.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 10-05-2019 14:06
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2 minutes lost and not even first of the team. Fantastic job Kudus...
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| ryant |
Posted on 10-05-2019 15:44
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Don't know how Ive managed it but Ive managed to send something that resembles a C Team here lol, so we're not expecting anything really - Tvetcov in 20th probably will show us whats in store for us.
Seems race days got low and I put more eggs on Portugal, so we'll see where that gets us.
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 10-05-2019 22:27
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2433
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Jocelin Maillet sneaks into 15th place, interesting.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 10-05-2019 23:21
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World Champion
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Not a bad stage but bad signs of Velits being dropped and coming back. Nice ride from Gilanipoor to come in the second group as well though.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 11-05-2019 06:52
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World Champion
Posts: 11395
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Eh, decent from Velits. Hope he can improve on that GC place in the coming days, especially hope the HI stage is a HI stage and not a MO one in disguise
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 11-05-2019 07:00
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4476
Joined: 25-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
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Annoyed Pluchkin is best Pluchkin
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 11-05-2019 08:47
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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Hat off to Pluchkin. Was fun to lead for one day, but the goal is to maintain second place now.
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