Hello and welcome to Switzerland. The home of.. Well, an incredible amount of stereotypes actually. From cheese to watches! You have tuned in to the preview of its famous Tour, which is starting in around 24 hours from now. Let's see what will await us from tomorrow onward.
The route seems to follow the traditional concept which has been around since 2007; a mini-GT that centres around mountainous stages. However, with a TTT, TT and two hilly stages involved as well, it's very likely that this race's crown can only go to a true allround stage racer. Like Taaramae, who won last year in front of Machado and Pluchkin!
So let's zoom into every stage a bit more. We're starting off with what should quite honestly be a hilly-rated stage, but is rated flat. We will likely see a combination of puncheurs and sprinters with good hill stats near the front.
The winner won't be able to keep the leader's jersey for too long though, as stage 2 is already a mountain stage with an uphill finish. It's followed by a TTT and a stage for the puncheurs. Which means that after stage 4, all types of stages have been covered already. Which should give us a good insight on who could still win the final GC.
Stage 5 is the flattest stage and should feature either a breakaway win or mass sprint. Then the second part of the Tour starts, with once again something interesting for every type of stage racer: A TT, a punchy stage in which climbing skills are likely needed, a mountain stage with a downhill finish and, finally, a mountain stage with an uphill finish. And then we will know who has won the race!
Favourites
MO
HIL
TT
ACC
Morton
84
76
73
67
Amador
84
75
78
72
Dombrowski
84
75
71
75
Schleck
84
74
73
78
Herklotz
83
77
74
76
Machado
83
76
73
70
Guldhammer
81
77
71
76
Monsalve
81
76
72
73
Wellens
81
75
72
68
Hirt
81
74
73
76
Quintana
81
74
71
66
Meintjes
80
77
71
69
Nibali
80
75
75
56
Dekker
80
74
77
69
The clash with the Dauphine means we might see a slightly weaker startlist here than could be possible. And at first glance we can see its effects, as there are no “85” climbers here! This opens up the possibilities for a lot of other riders, who would usually have to bite their dust.
As with every(mini)-GT, the primary stat to look out for is the mountain one. And if we only regard that stat, we can see four top favourites: Morton, Amador, Dombrowski and Schleck. All of them have reasons to regard them as the main competitor here: Morton has the highest hill stat, but a weaker acceleration. Amador is easily the best time trialist, but Dombrowski has a higher acceleration than him. Schleck is the weakest true puncheur, but has an acceleration that may compensate for this.
So who can challenge them based on other stats? Ahh, of course, Herklotz! The Vuelta winner and supertalent is looking for another upset here. If you can still call it an upset, that is. He should especially shine in this punchier stages, in which he easily has the highest HIL/ACC combo. The aforementioned favourites will fear him, that's for sure.
Machado is the last one who could still be regarded as top favourite, though his substats are lower than Herklotz'. After that, a drop to 81MO means it's unlikely to see any more contestants for the race win. Though especially Guldhammer and wildcard rider Monsalve should have what it takes to finish ahead of some of the favourites and sneak themselves into the top 5.
Puncheurs
HIL
SP
ACC
McCarthy
81
65
74
van der Hugenhaben
79
67
64
Paulinho
78
68
75
Watson
78
62
72
Herklotz
77
68
76
Guldhammer
77
70
76
Kangert
77
62
72
Meintjes
77
61
69
Preidler
77
50
69
Bratashcuk
77
62
67
Kratochvila
77
53
64
Then it's time to take a look at the stage hunters. First of all, the puncheurs. They have three stages to look out for, the flat-rated stage 1, stage 4 and the mountainous stage 6. McCarthy is easily the best of them, which isn't a surprise, given that he's joining with a wildcard and other puncheurs have to spend their race days more wisely. Van der Hugenhaben, Paulinho and Watson are the other ones who would want to take the stage win in front of a large group of stage racers.
Sprinters
SP
ACC
HIL
Avelino
83
78
64
Vesely
81
80
68
Van Poppel
81
78
64
Stauff
80
81
65
Kupfernagel
80
80
64
Aberasturi
79
78
64
Havik
79
76
64
Croket
79
71
65
Young
78
77
69
Thwaites
78
76
65
Mansilla
77
78
71
Some very capable sprinters also joined this Tour for the hilly stage 1 and the flat stage 5. Avelino is the best of them, though his acceleration may mean he'll be inconsistant! Vesely should be a safer choice if you want to bet on a top 3-finish. Van Poppel, Stauff and Kupfernagel are the other sprinters who want to leave with at least one stage win here. And in case the stages prove out to be harder than expected, Young and Mansilla should be riders who could have a shot at a great result.
Time Trialists
TT
HIL
Kittel
81
64
Yatsevich
80
68
Howson
80
65
Sütterlin
80
65
Dillier
80
64
Van Winden
80
63
Gonzalez Salas
80
60
Malori
79
68
Nascimento
79
68
Vorobev
79
65
Dempster
79
64
Dal Col
79
64
Kwok
79
62
Robert
79
60
Stannard
79
55
Amador
78
75
Assuming they will survive the mountains without too much trouble, the time trialists will be looking for a stage win themselves in stage 6. Kittel is the favourite here, behind a huge group of “80”-time trialists. And honestly, there's not a lot that separates them... This stage should be anyone's game! Though if you believe stage racers have an edge over time trialists, as often happens later on in tours, I guess you could call Amador a favourite as well.
Best TTT teams
Not a lot of teams completely focusing on the TTT, rather than sending a team to minimize time losses for the top climbers, or to avoid them to get dropped.
Anyway, a team stands out as the favourite for the stage win, with UBS having 5 76+ riders and their worst rider being 72. For Amador it will be a huge step ahead in the GC battle. But a bad day for the team and several other teams could put a surprise fight, like Gazelle, with their awesome depth; Aegon, with 5 great TTist; Tinkoff, whose lack of a fifth great rider is compensated with the top4 riders; Porto and Bennelong, who brought here a second tier TTT team, or maybe even Puma or Vesuvio, who are more focused on the GC battle with Herklotz and Schleck
Looking at the startlist, there can only be one goal for Morton. Top-5. No chance for the podium, I guess. Schleck, Herklotz and Dombro won't be within reach for lazy Morton, but maybe he can compete with Amador and hold off Machado (and those 81 MO guys) to achieve his second Top-5 result in a Tour de Suisse. I would not accept such a disastrous performance like he had at T-A (or P-N, I don't remember) earlier this season.. Get your stuff together, Lachlan. Last chance to shine in this season.
The TTT setup is made for Morton, so it ain't top notch this time. The main goal is to not drop out GC guy on the road.
Herklotz to win this.
Thanks for the nice preview. Looking forward to some hopefully good racing!
As usual we are in this race with no expectation for the overall classification, but in the expectation of seeing our riders fight for a stage or who knows by the classification of the mountain.
Above all, any point won will already be decent
It's also an exciting one looking at my team. Guldhammer should be more than capable of a top 10, and as the preview states, he might even challenge for a top 5 if he's on a good day on a couple of the critical stages. Then we also got Vesely, who I must admit I expect a stage win from seeing the startlist. Stage 1 seems to be most suited for him, so hopeully he can give us a flying start here. That was also why he was sent here. Though, stage 5 and maybe even stage 4 should also see him have chances.
Herklotz must be the favourite after his Vuelta dominance, eventhough the top 4 mountain guys should make sure we get a thrilling race from start to end.
And finally PT continues
Thanks for picking it up again
I dont expect much but slightly more points than last season would be nice ... oh wait who am i kidding. I realize that last seasons suisse and dauphine double header was one if the most insane overperformances and that it wont happen again.
However i have a very similar lineup with Horton and Mansilla as the underdogs in the sprint who surely will not join them. And of course Vosekalns, Egger and Sakalou will be hunting for breaks and KOM jerseys.
Budenieks, Lienhard and Neilands are mainly here for the XP and can especially enjoy the stages with unlimited time to complete (im assuming thats what the clock symbols indicate).
The fight for the podium will be very interesting. Herklotz and Schleck as the two elite riders as favourites but the rest of the crop can beat them on a good day too.
Great to be going again, thank you for the preview Aquarius. This race is one of the season highlights for us and looking at the course/field, this is Amador's best chance for a win that we've probably ever had. I think we have a decent advantage in the TT's, and we'll have to make the most out of them to have a chance because Schleck/Dombrowski/Herklotz will; always have an edge on Amador in the mountains/hills.
If I'm going to pick the winner, I'll say Schleck because Amador never beats him
Really looking forward to our home race here, hope we can get good results.
Great to see the first TDF warm-up in action, with not many TDF favourites in action (none of the 82+ at least) Shame not see see Koch return to the scene of his amazing KoM and Top 10 last year, hope Vosekalns can do it for Evonik this time
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Guys hold me back:
- Mansilla finishing the stage 2nd
-> getting all sorts of classification bonus already
- Vosekalns / Egger / Sakalou dropped and already in position for a break ride on stage 2
No stupid damage in the opener. Which is actually good news, knowing that Morton already proved to be capable of losing time in flat stages. Quite surprised though, that all my riders made the split and stayed in the main group. May (!) lead to some minor GC results eventually, since my second tier climbers will hopefully support Morton and probably do not join breakaways anyway.
Super happy with that, maybe even a sign that our luck is about to turn this season? Really hope so, that's for sure In the end, the team tactics in the final kilometers worked brilliant, with CF Hagen forcing Avelino to open his sprint early, and then Vesely benefiting from it.
Failed attempt for Avelino, but it's good to see him in the mix of things. Third isn't bad actually in that sort of profile. Stage 5 should work better for him.
Obviously everyone has high expectations of Herklotz now that he's a GT winner, but exactly because of his massive success already, I will not go ahead and set any goal for him in his last race of the season.
I wouldn't be mad about 6th place 10 minutes down in the end. Just have fun.
If we talk about his potential though, this is pretty much an ideal race for him.
The TT isn't too long, I am confident in my TTT team of 80 77 76 74 74 73 71 68 while still retaining good mountain support, and the final three stages are tailor-made for Herklotz with two short bursts to the line and a downhill finish. Stage 4 could also be a stage win opportunity.
About stage 1, congrats to Aker! I see that Ciolek passed on his knowledge
I had wished Herklotz to be positioned better going into the last uphill part to allow him to ride slipstreams to a Top 10, this way he lost out on any points for green.
Tour de Suisse
Shame not see see Koch return to the scene of his amazing KoM and Top 10 last year, hope Vosekalns can do it for Evonik this time 
