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Chrono d'Arenberg Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 03-12-2018 15:33
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
PCM$: 599.00
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 Chrono d'Arenberg
Arenberg - Mons-en-Pévèle 50.1 km
Welcome to the very first edition of Chrono d'Arenberg, a brutal individual time trial set in the hardest part of the cobbled roads well known from Paris-Roubaix, with start in the village Arenberg and finish in Mons-en-Pévèle.
The first time check (Trouée d'Arenberg) will come up after only 2.8 km out of which 2.2 km is the renowned Trouée d'Arenberg cobbled road. With 78.5% cobbles this short sector is the most in favour of the cobble specialists.
Next check comes up after 15.8 km (Hornaing) , this sector only includes one full cobbled sector Wallers à Hélesmes and a small part of Warlain à Brillon. Totally about 2 km of cobbles, with about 15% cobbles making it the sector mostly in favour of the tempo riders.
The last time check (orchies) comes after 36 km, these about 20 km include 4 cobbled sectors with some 9 km of paved roads, about 45% cobbles and the last 14.1 km up to the finish include 3 cobbled sectors with about 6.9 km of cobbles, about 49%
These two almost similar sectors may favour the most complete riders.
Favorites
It is very hard to predict how much weight should be laid on Time Trail skill and how much on Cobble, also resistance will play a role as a tiebreaker but I don’t think it will be that important.
My expectation is that cobblers may be a little favoured and a balance between the two major skills will be preferable and that a high resistance can be a bonus, my top favourites are:
 Blythe the top cobbler with a fine ITT and ok resistance
 Kung the tempo rider and also ok on the cobbles
 Dahl-Olsen the all-rounder with high resistance
Bagdonas another all-rounder
Kasperkiewicz cobbler with a fine ITT and ok resistance
 Cancellara all-rounder but with low end resistance
 Bolivar cobbler with a fine ITT and ok resistance
 Zepuntke strong cobbler but lacking a bit on the ITT
Harrison and Arissol both all-rounders
Lists of riders and skills (combined/cobblers/tempo riders)
| Name | C+T | | Name | Co | | Name | TT | | Blythe | 150 | | Blythe | 82 | |  Mottin | 79 | | Kung | 149 | |  Vanspeybrouck | 82 | | Olman | 79 | | Cancellara | 147 | | Zepuntke | 81 | | Janse van Rensburg | 78 | | Dahl-Olsen | 146 | | Nolf | 80 | | Kung | 77 | | Bagdonas | 146 | |  Burghardt | 80 | | Laizer | 77 | | Kasperkiewicz | 146 | | Thomas | 79 | |  Postlberger | 77 | | Bolivar | 146 | |  Ferreira | 79 | |  Kreuziger | 76 | | Zepuntke | 146 | | David | 78 | |  Hamza | 76 | | Harrison | 145 | | Theuns | 78 | | Kireva | 75 | | Matthews | 145 | | Bolivar | 77 | | Bauer | 75 | | Laizer | 145 | | Insausti | 77 | | Barton | 75 | | Arissol | 144 | | Grand | 77 | | Reckweg | 74 |  Vermote | 144 | | Kasperkiewicz | 76 | | Talacka | 74 | | Nolf | 144 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 76 | | Cancellara | 73 | | Vanspeybrouck | 144 | | Gaday | 76 | | Bagdonas | 73 | | Kireva | 144 | | Matthews | 75 | | Dahl-Olsen | 72 | | David | 143 | | Vandenbergh | 75 | | Harrison | 72 | | Insausti | 143 | | Cancellara | 74 | | Arissol | 72 | | Theuns | 143 | | Dahl-Olsen | 74 | | Rumsas | 72 | | Nepomnyachsniy | 143 | | Vermote | 74 | | De Maar | 71 |
Startlist
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| Vien |
Posted on 03-12-2018 15:45
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Waste of race days for us, had one suitable rider but sending him here would've meant he won't max out, so any point would be welcome.
Good to see racing continue though! |
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| quadsas |
Posted on 03-12-2018 19:00
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2518
Joined: 18-01-2013
PCM$: 300.00
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I expect nothing and I'll still be disappointed
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 21-11-2024 19:55
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 03-12-2018 19:39
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Pretty confident this will go to the TT guys, but I brought the cobbles duo here anyway cause screw it why not relegate.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 03-12-2018 20:17
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
PCM$: 700.00
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This profile looks like it'll be a great and interesting race and I have two awesome riders who are perfect for it who we now need to make some sort of impression because every point matters. So Kung or Blythe should definitely win and we'll probably come out of it with > 20 points despite having 2 of the top riders.
On the other hand this is the best chance yet for a Faroese profressional win after Veyhe took the first U23 win and leaders jersey held.
Thanks for the preview Tamijo! Very nice way to summarise a difficult race to predict.  And go Gunnar + Kaspa!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-12-2018 20:37
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World Champion
Posts: 12187
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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Hehe I know that feeling 
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 03-12-2018 20:39
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World Champion
Posts: 11392
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1020.00
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Not sending my team here with Debesay was a big mistake. Ah well, will cheer forGunnar and Kaspa
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 03-12-2018 20:58
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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Excited for a TT, so I guess I have a psychological advantage here
Having the number 1 tho in a C1 race, the strongest pure TTist, and two solid cobbled riders with good TT.. I can't hide I do have some expectations.. but at the same time I'm prepared for the worst, as cobblestones may have a big big influence (see Wisniowki's Giro prologue win).
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 03-12-2018 21:19
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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If the most important stat is COB then I'm covered with Zepuntke.
If the most important stat is TT then I'm covered with Janse van Rensburg.
If the most important stat is a combination of COB and TT then I'm fucked.
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| Vien |
Posted on 04-12-2018 16:33
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2322
Joined: 16-06-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Wait what? How the hell did Gaday get 4th?! Super happy of course but... how?
Really hoping someone can break down these results, obviously you need to be a good cobbler to win this but some of these results are surprising, even for TT standards.
Sadly my relegation rivals did even better, so in the end Gadays performance feels more like damage control. Grats to trek for a well-needed win!
And thanks to Tamijo for this report, almost felt like a bit too long which is a compliment |
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 04-12-2018 16:45
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2809
Joined: 16-04-2013
PCM$: 900.00
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Kick. In. The. Balls.
Oh well, still an awesome route and an awesome report!
Edited by Yellow Jersey on 04-12-2018 21:07
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-12-2018 16:59
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Team Leader
Posts: 7406
Joined: 14-07-2015
PCM$: 599.00
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Im sure this was the most in inconsistent, unpredictable result i have ever seen in pcm, how that was calculated is a mystery, simply can't find a line in the skills mix used. Looks like a dice was thrown?
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| Scorchio |
Posted on 04-12-2018 17:11
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2073
Joined: 14-09-2013
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Finally managed to get Daily working again (very odd), and this is a very nice race/result for WCC to come back to. Pre-season thought that all 3 riders entered might be capable of creeping into the top 10. All 3 did decent, with 5th, 13th and 14th creating a decent points haul. Surprised that it was Arissol that grabbed 5th, as thought Harrison might be best suited, but main thing is all 3 being competent on the day (even if Sam had a slow start). As out-of-touch with results from the previous calendar month, not too clear how WCC's season is proceeding, but over 25 ppRD here is for sure welcome whatever the situation.
Thanks to Tamijo for the report. Difficult to properly take away a full understanding of what best skill set is for this race from today's result, but COB certainly seemed dominant vs TT looking at the majority of the top 10, what the right balance/mix is to hit the sweet-spot still up-in-the-air!
Manager of ISA - Hexacta in the MG |
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 04-12-2018 19:56
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16429
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 10438.70
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Well, seeing as I expected nothing, I guess I can take it. 2 guys in the top 10 isn't bad. VSB was a bit under expectations but then again Nolf was probably a bit above expectations. I'm not thrilled, but I'll take it. Nice to at least have neither of them completely get destroyed.
Thanks for the extraordinary report Tamijo! Superb analysis!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-12-2018 20:12
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7593
Joined: 04-07-2012
PCM$: 15345.00
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I'm confused, thrilled, surprised, and extremely happy. Great result from Zepuntke, the one I honestly expected the least comes very close to victory. Second is better than I could have dreamed. Janse van Rensburg being beaten by Barton is who is worse in both COB and TT is funny though.
Thanks for the report Tamijo, congrats trekbmc!
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 05-12-2018 05:19
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 11-07-2014
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Awesome Kaspa!!
Simply amazing for him to get his first outright profressional win, didn't expect that at all and it does a good job making up for Cyprus (not totally though). Gunnar was a bit disappointing, but Kaspa's performance excuses that. 
Thanks for the report Tamijo!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| beagle |
Posted on 05-01-2019 23:01
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4200
Joined: 06-10-2007
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Not as good as I was hoping for.
Congrats trek and thanks for the report Tamijo!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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