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Lisbon Classic Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 13-11-2018 17:51
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 Lisbon Classic
Lisbon – Lisbon 205.7 km
Welcome to the 5th edition of Lisbon Classic, previously raced from 2013-2016 it is now back on the 2018 calendar.
The origin of Lisbon is unclear; authors of antiquity attributed the foundation to mythical hero Odysseus on his journey home from Troy. Archaeological evidence shows trade with/or Phoenicians presence, in the Lisbon region in 1200 BC, fortification dating back to the 1st century BC has been found.
The local spectators will have seven riders to cheer for, strongest in this situation Berg Cycles  Fabio Silvestre, but they will surely also give extra support to  Afonso Borges Carvalho Fernandes Guerreiro and  Oliveira
Previous Winners
2016 winner veteran sprinter  Tzortzakis will be here, but he may well have to play a different role with teammate Bryan Coquard also attending.
2016 runner up  Van Stayen more likely to at least podium again and same goes for 2016 3rd  Degenkolb.
Also 2015 winner  Holloway runner up  Kristoff and 3rd  Roelandts all here again.
Nobody has won the race twice so both Tzortzakis and Holloway has a shot at being the first, although that would be an unexpected win in both cases, but Holloway being the team leader not impossible at all.
Favorites
Festina – Dexia here with the strongest pure sprinter in Coquard, as reason years have shown that punch don’t seem too important, Coquard’s top sprint and acceleration makes him a standalone top favorite. The team also comes with a very strong setup, rouleurs Bar and Santos and 2nd sprinter Tzortzakis, to back him up.
Iberia with Degenkolb and Evonik with Van Stayen just below him. Degenkolb with the best acceleration of the two, while Van Stayen the very best hilly climber of the top favorites and on top of that also with a top stamina which could make a difference in a long race like this. They are both stronger on the flat than Coquard.
Iberia brings very strong rouleurs in Brockhoff and Gallego Martin and also two fine secondary sprinters in Merino Criado and Van der Sanden a strong setup indeed.
Evonik with a perfect rouleurs in Stoltz to keep Van Stayen in the action, 2nd sprinters Van Avermaet or Dzamastagic to deliver the opening kick.
Then to the 2nd group of favorites and with the MGUCI having lots of strong sprinter any of these can easily win the race on the right day.
Volvo got  Ahlstrand, slightly weaker pure sprinter than the best but high end acceleration, resistance and stamina. With Manamalage a strong rouleur and Bertilsson 2nd sprinter a fine setup.
Fablok with  Mohs, also slightly weaker pure sprinter than the best but high end acceleration, got two minor weaknesses with low end resistance and hilly climb ability. Fablok comes with strong and explosive rouleur Ignatiev and also a very strong 2nd sprinter in Guardini
eBuddy bring  Grosu, a very all round sprinter strong on the short climbs, good stamina, fine kick. Not top end anywhere but no weaknesses either. Rouleur Gerts not amongst the very best on the flat but then stronger than most on the climbs should be albe to keep Grosu near the front and eBuddy brings very strong 2nd sprinter Van Poppel to beliver an opening kick and maby make a top result on this own.
Hugo Boss bring Kristoff, a bit weaker acceleration than most favorites, but high end flat and stamina. Hugo Boss does not bring any top rouleur but they do bring a somewhat surprising joker in Ponzi, will be interesting to see if a top puncher with a sprint can do anything in this race. Aberasturi and Havik as other secondary sprinters.
SPAR bring Guerao a similar pure sprinter as those above but with a weaknesses in low end acceleration. He will not have the strongest team backup on the flat but Suryadi as 2nd sprinter.
Puma bring  Demare a bit weaker pure sprinter that those right above, but otherwise a very all round rider with a better acceleration than those right above and also one of the best punchers in the race. His major weakness will be the team support.
Bennelong bring  Howard, another very all-round sprinter with no clear weaknesses besides being a slightly weaker sprinter than those mentioned just like Demare. Wohler as a fine rouleur and Edmondson as 2nd sprinter.
This was my ten top favorites, the next group of teams bring leaders
 Saber,  Appollonio, Holloway, Silvestre and  Stauff all skilled sprinter able to make a good result on the right day, would not be surprised to see one of those sneak onto top five on the right day .
Roelandts,  Castañeda,  Drapac,  Granjel Cabrera,  Boivin,  Rowe and  Lander, there is no end to the list up fine sprinters in this race and any of those could also get away with a nice point haul if things turn out right.
Would be a bit more surprised to see Porto – Prio or Team Reddit get a rider inside top 15, looks like they will have to hope for the odd breakaway win, but let’s see strange things happen.
List of sprinters
| Rider | S | A | H | F | S | R | | Coquard | 84 | 83 | 65 | 73 | 71 | 74 | | Degenkolb | 84 | 81 | 69 | 76 | 73 | 71 | | Van Stayen | 84 | 78 | 79 | 76 | 76 | 71 | | Ahlstrand | 83 | 82 | 67 | 74 | 74 | 73 | | Mohs | 83 | 82 | 65 | 75 | 73 | 64 | | Grosu | 83 | 80 | 73 | 73 | 74 | 70 | | Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 68 | 75 | 75 | 71 | | Guerao | 83 | 76 | 65 | 74 | 71 | 64 | | Demare | 82 | 81 | 79 | 73 | 75 | 72 | | Howard | 82 | 79 | 68 | 76 | 75 | 70 | | Saber | 81 | 79 | 68 | 75 | 74 | 72 | | Appollonio | 81 | 78 | 66 | 74 | 71 | 66 | | Van Poppel | 81 | 78 | 64 | 72 | 74 | 71 | | Tzortzakis | 81 | 77 | 64 | 73 | 70 | 64 | | Holloway | 80 | 82 | 69 | 78 | 77 | 77 | | Guardini | 80 | 82 | 64 | 72 | 74 | 69 | | Silvestre | 80 | 81 | 67 | 78 | 70 | 71 | | Stauff | 80 | 81 | 65 | 74 | 74 | 69 | | Roelandts | 80 | 79 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 73 | | Castañeda | 80 | 79 | 59 | 71 | 71 | 67 | | Drapac | 80 | 79 | 53 | 71 | 70 | 65 | | Granjel Cabrera | 80 | 77 | 69 | 75 | 75 | 71 | | Serebriakov | 80 | 77 | 61 | 74 | 73 | 67 | | Rowe | 80 | 70 | 62 | 72 | 80 | 58 | | Lay | 79 | 81 | 60 | 73 | 68 | 66 | | Boivin | 79 | 80 | 70 | 74 | 74 | 70 | | Rowe | 79 | 80 | 66 | 78 | 76 | 70 | | Stepniak | 79 | 79 | 67 | 72 | 70 | 70 | | Krieger | 79 | 79 | 62 | 71 | 71 | 74 | | Aberasturi | 79 | 78 | 64 | 74 | 73 | 71 | | Lander | 79 | 77 | 69 | 77 | 77 | 72 | | Bertilsson | 79 | 77 | 69 | 73 | 72 | 71 | | Havik | 79 | 76 | 64 | 73 | 74 | 68 | | Suryadi | 79 | 76 | 62 | 71 | 72 | 68 |
Startlist
| Lander | Granjel Cabrera | Howard | | Perera | Vaquera | Edmondson | | Kemboi | Tivani | Archbold | | Bettiol | Cowan | McCormick | | Kumara | Powless | Wohler | | Turgis | Errazkin | O'Shea | | Dulanjana | Anderberg | Oram | | Ranaweera | Roberge | Watson | | | | | Silvestre | Appollonio | Stauff | | Guerreiro | Pons | Rowe | | Chiarello | Christensen | Thwaites | | Balloni | Østergaard | Bellis | | Fernandes | Krigbaum | Cullaigh | | Vogt | De Maar | Fenn | | Jacobsen | Asgreen | Tennant | | Gebremedhin | Olesen | Takenouchi | | | | | Grosu | Van Stayen | Mohs | | Van Poppel | Van Avermaet | Guardini | | Gerts | Dzamastagic | Stepniak | | Ariesen | Eislers | Cohen | | Roosen | Smirnovs | Ignatiev | | Vermeltfoort | Budenieks | Rovny | | Tolhoek | Nooytens | Poljanski | | Meijers | Stoltz | Froome | | | | | Coquard | Kristoff | Degenkolb | | Tzortzakis | Aberasturi | Merino Criado | | Santos | Havik | Van der Sanden | | Weber | Ponzi | Jans | | Bar | Barbero | Bagdonas | | Daniel | Ligthart | Brockhoff | | Ackermann | Gonzalez Salas | Gallego Martin | | Karatzios | Aramendía | Soler | | | | | Drapac | Boivin | Holloway | | Avila | Farrar | Serebriakov | | Schinker | Hopman | Kuznetsov | | Lindeman | Pedersen | Pokidov | | Sinclair | Smukulis | Darbinyan | | Major | Villella | Vermote | | Eiking | Rybakov | Logar | | Quevedo | Toupalik | Grossschartner | | | | | Saber | Carvalho | Roelandts | | Krieger | Aadel | Paez | | Navardauskas | Borges | Vanmarcke | | Per | Mas | Bystrom | | Petrus | Egidio | Rodríguez | | Jung | Betilson | Dunbar | | Van Zandbeek | Petrovski | Roson | | Allegaert | Afonso | Taillefour | | | | | Guerao | Demare |  Canelon | | Suryadi | Felline | Gaday | | Hsu | Wackermann | Bester | | Marzuki | Hadi | Smit | | Oliveira | Cavagna | Cruz | | Azman | Arndt | Varga | | Sirironnachai | Sagiv | Van Niekerk | | Ssabagwanya | Bol | Sequera | | | | | Ahlstrand | Castañeda | Rowe | | Bertilsson | Lay | Kennett | | Kreder | Cisse | Kossouhorou | | Ariesen | Redecker | Ngamoki-Cameron | | Tanfield | Juarez | Debesay | | Broers | Bush | Novardianto | | Stenersen | Dlamini | Schreurs | | Manamalage | Feng | Areruya |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 13-11-2018 18:39
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World Champion
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Weak team support for Demare if this was Qatar and we need to set up a train?
Sure.
Weak team support for Demare on this route when we have 8 riders with 72+ hill and 7 with 70+ sprint?
I sure hope not!
We need to watch out for late attacks, and avoid Evonik sweeping the Top 5 or something ridiculous like that again.
Demare has long exceeded his projected points expectations already, but also only has single-digit race days left this season.
I guess a Top 5 would be an acceptable middle ground, in particular if the rest of the team scores decently as well, but of course everything depends on the relation to van Stayen's result. 
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 13-11-2018 18:58
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Yeah I pretty much just brought a team to try and have some breakaway luck. Avelino tends to disappoint so I decided to reserve him to underperform in a bigger venue.
Thanks for the preview Tamijo, great insight. However I believe the race was, unfortunately, never discontinued.
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| SotD |
Posted on 13-11-2018 19:17
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World Champion
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We come with everything we got, so we can only dissapoint.
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 13-11-2018 19:28
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I'll book one ticket for Rowe on the Evonik train please.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | [PT]  Xero Racing
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 16-02-2025 11:54
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| tastasol |
Posted on 13-11-2018 20:25
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Classics Specialist
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A pity we couldn't be here to defend Wisniowski's win, but we didn't get in this band unfortunately. Should be a good race for Evonik with Van Staeyen the top favourite for me.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 13-11-2018 20:27
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Drapac will likely be dropped. Actual plan is for Quevedo to win from the break/late attack. Which likely won't happen either. Dudd racedays for us.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 13-11-2018 20:59
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What is my planning this year, jeez. I have no idea what I was thinking when I did this. it's like I didn't want Appo to score this who year.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| knockout |
Posted on 13-11-2018 21:02
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Grand Tour Champion
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Just beating Demare wont be enough here as the expectations are huge after the past few years...
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Kentaurus |
Posted on 13-11-2018 22:42
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Any points are good points! Gonna be the motto all year for us.
AZTECA - NBCSN  |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 13-11-2018 22:42
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Team Leader
Posts: 7409
Joined: 14-07-2015
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cio93 wrote:
Weak team support for Demare if this was Qatar and we need to set up a train?
Sure.
Weak team support for Demare on this route when we have 8 riders with 72+ hill and 7 with 70+ sprint?
I sure hope not!
We need to watch out for late attacks, and avoid Evonik sweeping the Top 5 or something ridiculous like that again.
Demare has long exceeded his projected points expectations already, but also only has single-digit race days left this season.
I guess a Top 5 would be an acceptable middle ground, in particular if the rest of the team scores decently as well, but of course everything depends on the relation to van Stayen's result.
Don’t take it too personal, it is after all just a preview, making assumptions of what might be an advantage or disadvantage, for different riders if different situations might happens, at the time having no idea at all how it will turn out. Might be better also to make a calculation of team strength based on the fact that hilly riders would be useful as domestics, but should be quite clear after reading the post that I did not nither for your team or anyone else.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 13-11-2018 22:56
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Would need a Top-10 result at least. But it won't be easy.. Not too confident with Howard's performances so far this year.
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 14-11-2018 05:19
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Can Saber find his Giro sprinting legs in this field? Looks tough so we're probably looking at a Top 15 result at best. Top 10 would be an excellent result I think.
Thanks for the preview Tamijo 
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| Vien |
Posted on 14-11-2018 07:33
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Figured Meyer would get dropped anyway, so I didn't send him to avoid getting too passive. Just let us join the break and I'll be satisfied. |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 14-11-2018 08:39
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World Champion
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Tamijo wrote:
Don’t take it too personal, it is after all just a preview, making assumptions
Hey no worries, I didn't take it personal nor did I mean my post personal.
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 14-11-2018 10:16
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Looking forward to seeing what we could do here, alot of potential for a good result atleast!
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 14-11-2018 10:45
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Don't know what to expect of this race. Roelandts is surely better than your average 80-81 sprinter for a route like this, and we've brought all our flat power (? ) with Vanmarcke and Taillefour, and also Bystrom if the race gets too selective because why not (and he had a couple of spare RD's).
Maybe a Top15 i guess, a Top10 would be fantastic.
Thanks for the great preview Tamijo
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| beagle |
Posted on 14-11-2018 14:37
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Great preview, with no Bewley/Swift here anything but podium would be disappointing.
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| SotD |
Posted on 14-11-2018 19:32
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Fuck yes! What an effort from Coquard with absolutely disastrous rides from his lead-out riders... We brought 3 riders to form the perfect train and all of them dropped, despite having similar, or better stats for a hard race than Coquard.
So no domestique points at all from this race, but winning the race (again) makes that irrelevant. Once he came into 4th position, not yet in the wind, I knew he would be almost impossible to beat, and fortunately he was.
Good efforts again from Evonik and Puma to put as much pressure on the title-run as possible. For us, this was a key moment in the attempt to land a top 10 PT result. Also really really cool to see your own talents move from nothing to winning Big races. Coquard here, Lecuisinier with stagewin, U25 and 4th GC in the Giro. That's really something!
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| redordead |
Posted on 14-11-2018 19:53
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Happy to see Petrovski in another breakaway
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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