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Tour of California Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 25-10-2018 19:04
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 Tour of California
7 stages – 948.8 km
Welcome to the 11 edition of Tour of California, the race have been on the MG calender constantly since 2008.
About the route: The basic structure of a race where every type of riders get their preferred stage, flat, hilly, mountain and time trail stages included is unchanged.
Compared to last season the race are remodeled in several ways, with all the decisive hill and mountain stages changes, but it will still be crucial to have a good combination of different skills to win this race.
As I see it, the routes this time seem a bit softer and longer and maybe will make the time trail a bit more influential and stamina a bit more important.
The race still clashes with Giro d'Italia, so we won’t see the very best PT riders attend, making it more likely to see a pro continental team do well or even win the race. 11 PTC and 13 PT teams will be starting the race.
Somewhat surprisingly we only got one rider from United States RBC Pro Cycling’s  Robin Carpenter sure to have the spectators on his side. Also Colombian  Restrepo and  Jaramillo, Venezuelan  Salinas and Ecuadorian  Cuasquer will get some extra support from the large Hispanic population in the area.
Previous winners
2017 winner Tom Jelte Slagter will be here to defend the jersey as the only previous race winner, also the only one of last year’s stage winners and GC top 5 attending.  Beñat Intxausti last year’s GC 8th the 2nd best rider from last year’s GC.
Favorites:
Last year we saw a rider with very equal skill’s as puncher and climber but weak time trail win the race. My expectation is that the time trail will be a bit more influential this time, but that we will still have to looks for a rider that won’t lose too much neither on the hilly stages nor on the mountain stage, rather than one with high but too uneven skillset.
This is my prediction:
I guess not surprising anyone  Herklotz will be my favorite. The best climber in the race but not only that, he is also amongst the better punchers with a reasonably time trail. At the same time his combination of acceleration, stamina and resistance the best amongst the top contenders for the race.
 Martin and again it is his stand out climbing that places him as top favorite but also he has very strong support skills and no clear weaknesses.
That said these two riders need to perform on the only mountain stage and gain time there, if they don’t they may well struggle against the best punchers.
One of them my next top favorite  Kwiatkowski, he is one of the riders that stands out, without being a top stage favorite but with a very even skillset good at both the punchy stages and the mountain stage, his option is not to lose a lot of time anywhere and hope to see others do. Maybe a bit daring to pick a rider unlike to win a stage as podium favorite, but stranger things has happened.
Kwiatkowski not my only podium favorite though, I have got two more that I expect to be just as likely as him.
 Keinath, strong top end climber, fine but 2nd tier puncher and he got a very fine time trail compared at almost every other favorite. If he can prevent losing to much on the hill stages he may gain that back in the time trail.
The next clear podium candidate is  Meintjes, a top end climber with a good punch too, his weakness compared to the others is that he may lose substantial time in the TT, if he has a bad last day. Simply need to have a little time he can lose, otherwise he will fall back.
Can’t continue to call them all podium candidates, but honestly I believe that we got more riders able to podium and even win if things work out right, from here I will keep them in alphabetic order to indicate that in my opinion they all got even possibility’s in the race.
 Chiarello a good rounded rider, but slightly weaker than other favorites on the hilly stages but may well gain some time in the TT.
 Kangert, the weakest pure climber to be mentioned amongst the favorites, but at the same time clearly the strongest tempo rider, having a good day in the mountains and he will suddenly be very dangerous.
 Olivier, amongst the best climbers in the race he will most likely gain time on the mountain stage, so crucial for him to prevent time losses on the hilly days, and minimize the loss in the TT, that he will certainly have.
 Roche, like Kangert a rider who must expect to lose time on the mountain stage, but amongst the very best punchers, so he will have to build an advantage on the hilly stages.
Defending champion Slagter, a top end puncher, with Kwiatkowski the very best amongst the favorites and also a fine climber, he has a bad time trail but survived that last year, so he can do it again but with more stages demanding a high stamina which he haven’t got, it may be harder this time.
Beneath those also like to briefly mention 6 more riders, that may not challenge the podium but strong enough that we will likely see some on them in top 10 when the race is over.
 Augustyn, a good all-rounder, strongest as climber.
Intxausti, actually a very strong riders in all other aspect that his punch, the only reason I can’t see him win this race.
Konrad, another well rounded rider, just can’t see him strong enough to get much higher than top 10, also interesting to see how the team will see him compared to Kangert, will any of them act as domestic for the other.
Poljanski, good combo on Hilly and Mountain stages but will lose some time in the TT, another good rider that may well break top 10, but can’t see him on the podium and interesting how the team will be him compared to Roche
Reis again a rider strongest as climber and again interesting how the team will see him compared to Intxausti
 van der Hugenhaben, strongest as a puncher but relative weak climber, he needs to over-preform in the hills, building some time he can lose later.
Overview of the above mentioned riders.
| Rider | M | H | TT | Acc | St | Re | | Herklotz | 83 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 80 | | Martin | 82 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 78 | | Kwiatkowski | 78 | 79 | 70 | 75 | 74 | 76 | | Keinath | 79 | 76 | 75 | 70 | 77 | 76 | | Meintjes | 80 | 77 | 71 | 69 | 77 | 76 | | Chiarello | 78 | 75 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 74 | | Kangert | 75 | 77 | 77 | 72 | 76 | 75 | | Olivier | 80 | 76 | 69 | 71 | 76 | 80 | | Roche | 76 | 78 | 70 | 69 | 75 | 72 | | Slagter | 78 | 79 | 66 | 71 | 71 | 73 | | Augustyn | 77 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 74 | 72 | | Intxausti | 82 | 71 | 77 | 70 | 78 | 78 | | Konrad | 75 | 76 | 71 | 69 | 76 | 73 | | Poljanski | 77 | 77 | 67 | 71 | 70 | 70 | | Reis | 81 | 73 | 76 | 63 | 78 | 76 | | van der Hugenhaben | 76 | 79 | 70 | 64 | 75 | 74 |
Lists of top 20 riders to challenge the different stages.
Stage hunters prologue:
| Name | P | Re | Name | P | Re | | Durbridge | 81 | 74 | Intxausti | 77 | 78 |  Yatsevich | 80 | 81 |  Cheung | 77 | 74 |  Brändle | 79 | 73 | Postlberger | 77 | 72 | | Malori | 79 | 73 | Reis | 76 | 76 | | Hansen | 79 | 73 | Shikai | 76 | 76 | | Goldstein | 79 | 72 | Kangert | 76 | 75 | | Stannard | 79 | 70 | Kwiatkowski | 75 | 76 | | Herklotz | 78 | 80 | Keinath | 75 | 76 |  Sterbini | 78 | 73 | Jallays | 75 | 74 | | Ligthart | 78 | 66 |  Soler | 75 | 72 |
Stage hunter sprinters
| Rider | S | A | F | Rider | S | A | F | | Lo Cicero | 84 | 78 | 72 |  Lobato del Valle | 77 | 80 | 72 | | Kennaugh | 82 | 81 | 77 | Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 | | Bouhanni | 80 | 77 | 74 | Lutsyshyn | 77 | 78 | 68 | | Rowe | 80 | 70 | 72 | Feiereisen | 77 | 78 | 74 | | Porsev | 79 | 80 | 74 | Planckaert | 77 | 77 | 73 |  Willwohl | 79 | 78 | 73 | Schorn | 77 | 77 | 76 | | Merino Criado | 78 | 80 | 73 | Theuns | 77 | 76 | 72 | | Van der Sanden | 78 | 79 | 73 | Bar | 77 | 76 | 77 | | Fonseca | 78 | 77 | 74 | Giaux | 77 | 75 | 73 | | Thwaites | 78 | 76 | 73 | McEvoy | 75 | 79 | 70 |
Stage hunter punchers:
| Rider | H | A | St | Rs | Rider | H | A | St | Rs | | Gastauer | 82 | 76 | 78 | 70 | Landa | 78 | 69 | 70 | 69 | | Ginanni | 82 | 73 | 77 | 77 | Herklotz | 77 | 76 | 79 | 80 | | Mohoric | 81 | 77 | 78 | 72 | Kangert | 77 | 72 | 76 | 75 | | Koretzky | 80 | 79 | 77 | 70 | Zardini | 77 | 68 | 70 | 66 | | Kwiatkowski | 79 | 75 | 74 | 76 | Martin | 77 | 76 | 77 | 78 | | van der Hugenhaben | 79 | 64 | 75 | 74 | Meintjes | 77 | 69 | 77 | 76 | | Slagter | 79 | 71 | 71 | 73 | Kratochvila | 77 | 64 | 70 | 68 | | Roche | 78 | 69 | 75 | 72 | Zakarin | 77 | 73 | 74 | 73 | | Moazemi | 78 | 73 | 72 | 72 | Zingle | 77 | 76 | 74 | 69 | | Chernetskiy | 78 | 71 | 80 | 69 | Poljanski | 77 | 71 | 70 | 70 |
Stage hunter climbers:
| Rider | M | A | Rs | Rider | M | A | Rs | | Herklotz | 83 | 76 | 80 | Keinath | 79 | 70 | 76 | | Martin | 82 | 76 | 78 | Kwiatkowski | 78 | 75 | 76 | | Intxausti | 82 | 70 | 78 | Signorini | 78 | 74 | 72 | | Shikai | 81 | 66 | 76 | Chiarello | 78 | 72 | 74 | | Reis | 81 | 63 | 76 | Slagter | 78 | 71 | 73 | | Olivier | 80 | 71 | 80 | Nesset | 78 | 69 | 76 | | Meintjes | 80 | 69 | 76 | Maillet | 77 | 77 | 76 | | Vinhas | 80 | 62 | 75 | Koch | 77 | 76 | 74 | | Arndt | 79 | 75 | 76 | Bonnin | 77 | 73 | 68 | | Brenes | 79 | 70 | 80 | Salinas | 77 | 72 | 74 |
Stage hunter time trail
| Name | TT | Rs | Name | TT | Rs | | Durbridge | 81 | 74 | Cheung | 77 | 74 | | Yatsevich | 80 | 81 | Hansen | 77 | 73 | | Brändle | 79 | 73 | Postlberger | 77 | 72 | | Malori | 79 | 73 | Reis | 76 | 76 | | Goldstein | 79 | 72 | Shikai | 76 | 76 | | Stannard | 79 | 70 | Politt | 76 | 71 | | Sterbini | 78 | 73 | Gallopin | 75 | 78 | | Ligthart | 78 | 66 | Keinath | 75 | 76 | | Intxausti | 77 | 78 | Jallays | 75 | 74 | | Kangert | 77 | 75 | Herklotz | 74 | 80 |
Startlist:
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| SotD |
Posted on 25-10-2018 19:23
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I'm very surprised to see such a poor sprinters field having 2 flat stages, and even a good chance to take the leaders jersey for the stage winner of stage 2.
Looking at the startlist I kinda regret not sending Coquard here, as the prologue/sprint combination should have given him the lead and a good shot at atleast 1 stage win.
Jocelyn Bar might sprint. You'll never know. He has been pretty strong when he have actually sprinted this season. Whether that will be the case without a real sprinter to lead out is more of a gamble than anything.
We come here with 2 strong puncheurs in the hope for a decent GC result and hopefully 2 good stageresults, but I guess I need Koretzky to do a great ride to have a chance for anything. van der Hugenhaben is (on paper) a good bet for top 10, but the low acceleration is likely going to see him end up outside the top 25 even.
Herklotz to make an easy win ahead of Kwiatek and then probably Dan Martin.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 25-10-2018 19:29
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First race of the season for Herklotz. Win goal. Best climber on the start line.
Apart from good punchlines: No Phinney in Cali is a major surprise, a very rare occurance and a chance we need to make the most of.
Dan Martin is a rather similar rider to Herklotz, so I hope Silvio can exploit the +7prl early on for a lead, and then use the better downhill and sprint stats on the hilly stages for at least bonus seconds.
The mountain stage looks unselective if we're unlucky, so it's vital to not give the GC lead plus a sizable time gap to the puncheurs, in particular to Kwiatek due to his TT, before that. (I think we can all agree last year's crazy stage was an outlier)
No major sprinter or puncheur on our roster so full focus can be on Herklotz at all times. Winning white is an absolute must, if he gets involved in the flat sprints I am hopeful to be in the mix for green too.
Arndt is good support on all mass start stages and could do very important work in the last kilometres of the decisive stages. Chevrier, Dunne and Stüssi come for the mountain support, while Bol, Wackermann and Declerq take care of the chasing on the flat and hilly stages.
This is a make or break race for our season after a great spring. If we do want to live up to the hype of some previews, we need to focus and be very attentive at all times here.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 25-10-2018 19:46
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Herklotz and Martin as the riders to follow here. We should see our chances crumble in the hilly stages, but given that we don't have a strong enough puncheur the tactic was to bring our strength in numbers and try to squeeze some gaps out of that mountain stage. Not a likely event that's a given.
Thanks for the in-depth preview Tami! And good luck everyone!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 25-10-2018 22:31
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Excited about this one! A podium certainly has to be our goal here.
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 25-10-2018 22:48
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This is all about Mohoric. I'm hoping for a stage win and a Top10 GC honestly, thinking about that the mountain may not be the most selective one.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 25-10-2018 23:15
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As I don't have a rider capable of a good GC here, I think I made the wise move of stage hunting.
Bouhanni as one of the better sprinters here is a surprise but hopefully it means he'll get somewhat of a lead-out from Fonseca & Lobato. Definitely high hopes for the flat stages.
Zingle definitely not one of the better puncheurs but will be interesting to see if he can do anything here.
Got my standard bunch of youngsters here to support and hopefully go for the breakaways.
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 26-10-2018 00:06
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Herklotz for the first of many wins as a maxed rider i guess.
A weak startlist, but it could be expected given the route, that looks hilly-TT focused with a mountain stage that doesn't look like a big one. Not the kind of race where top PCT climbers would risk their RD's, the very top PT climber don't use their RD's in PTHC, and clashing with Giro, where a lot of riders that could be here are there...
Not a lot of GC hopes for PCT teams, something i appreciate 
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 26-10-2018 01:45
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Would like Shikai to do decently well in the GC race, but he doesn't seem to be considered so Im hoping I haven't made a mistake sending him here, and he can get a good finish. It was probably a bit of a gamble with only one MO stage here but I think his PRO and MO makes him a contender.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 26-10-2018 03:37
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Willwohl the sprint lead but with not much support so may struggle. Otherwise its stage hunting.
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| roturn |
Posted on 26-10-2018 08:03
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A top 10 and a stage win please. Not the most ideal race for Olivier with the tt kilometers but mountain hill combo should do decent. Zardini and Gallopin as solid support. |
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 26-10-2018 11:40
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Love this race, of course was Slagter gonna be here again 
Ovbviously no expectations to repeat the success here, but he should still be capable of respectable result here. Also creds for mentioning Cuasquer in the preview, dont think that has happened before nor will it probably again
Hoping for some spectacular hilly stages again!!
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 27-10-2018 22:08
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We have a top 10 goal here, but with a weaker startlist than expected maybe it's a chance to make up for underperformances in ToME and Jalajah? I'm hesitant to get my hopes up though, really need the hill stages to be decisive before the mountain stage drops the other puncheurs, to get that 2nd behind Herklotz. It's not impossible, but after TONE, it's hard to know if it'll play out well.
We also brought Hansen for the prologue, which might end up alright now.
Thanks for the preview, really really nice in-depth read there! 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| tastasol |
Posted on 28-10-2018 10:43
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Pretty decent start by Martin, hopefully he will continue in a good way on the coming stages.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-10-2018 10:53
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Nice start for Intxausti, gaining a bit of leeway ahead of the predictably bad hilly stages. Cool to see former loanne Goldstein take the white jersey too. And of course congrats Oleg on the victory there.
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 28-10-2018 10:56
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Hmm, not loving the time loss to Herklotz where Kwiat should do well, but definitely not terrible and I'm not too worried about him given Herklotz will win anyway.
Congrats Oleg and Thanks for the report Tamijo!
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-10-2018 11:00
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Hard to predict what Kangert and Konrad can do here GC-wise. Also very curious whether Ginanni will deliver in the two hilly stages. Our score here will very much depend on daily form.
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| Bikex |
Posted on 28-10-2018 11:04
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Very nice start from Brändle! |
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| cio93 |
Posted on 28-10-2018 11:16
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The gaps here shouldn't matter much in the long run, but I can't say I'm happy with Intxausti so far up there since it means we really need to go hard on the hills with the AI maybe helping him more now.
On the other hand, 14 seconds on Martin and 18 on Kwiatek are good stuff already.
I hope Goldstein enjoys his run in white!
Preferably, Herklotz gets in the mix in the sprint tomorrow for some points, I'd like to be at least in that lead after stage 3.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-10-2018 11:20
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I maybe evil, but it's kinda good to see that Durbridge still can't win TTs, when he should be able to do it for a change  (guess he's doing fine this season, anyway - at least if I recall his performances correctly)
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