Welcome to the presentation act of the biggest race in the world; 2017 Tour de France! Carhaix will see the Grand Depart of the race and from there it will be 21 days of exciting racing through France, watching some of the best climbers in the world fighting for the win.
The first week might be for not losing time on other GC favourites, as with any mountain stage, sprinter, chronists and puncheurs will be the ones who will feature. The race starts with a sprint stage in Cap Frehel, before a couple of hilly stages, including the first top finish in the race, in Mur-de-Bretagne. Already in S4 we have the first TT of the race. 25 kms with a climb in the first part that will likely see a top GC favourite to wear the Yellow Jersey from the start of the race. After a couple of flat stages for sprinters, we have another hilly stage that could see a breakaway win, the best puncheurs fighting for it or the hilly sprinters surviving to sprint.
In the second week we finally arrive to the Pyrenees, where in it's first stint we'll see two stages, both finishing in Bagneres-de-Luchon, with the second stage being a true mountain stage, climbing Tourmalet, Aubisque and other two Cat.1 climbs. The race leaves the Pyrenees to go to the Vosges, where two hilly stages will take place, including the second top finish of the race, and the first real mountain finish in La Planche des Belles Filles. In a strange route design, the next day we are back in the Pyrenees for a mountain finish in Ax-3-Domains. The actual final day in the Pyrenees doesn't see a mountain finish, but another stage with several big climbs.
The third week is all about GC fight, even if it starts with a flat stage. But the next day the race arrives to Mende in the final hilly stage of the race, before reaching the Alps for 3 consecutive mountain stages. The first stage finishes in St-Jean-de-Maurienne after climbing Col du Glandon, while the next day we see another mountain finish in La Toussuire after passing through Croix de Fer. The last mountain stage will finish in Alpe d'Huez, after climbing again Croix de Fer during the stage.
If you thought that the race was over after Alpe d'Huez you are completely wrong, because there's a 40 kms TT which will decide who wins 2017 Tour de France, the day before the tradition finish in the Champs-Elysses
Former winners
Year
1st
2nd
3rd
2016
A.Schleck
Taaramae
Spilak
2015
Pluchkin
Taaramae
Amador
2014
A.Schleck
Pluchkin
Spilak
2013
Madrazo
Cunego
A.Schleck
2012
Cunego
Madrazo
Pluchkin
2011
Spilak
Dekker
Popovych
2010
Fothen
Devolder
Spilak
2009
Devolder
F.Schleck
Gadret
2008
F.Schleck
Di Luca
Valverde
2007
Moreau
Vinokourov
Leipheimer
Last year we saw Andy Schleck being the first rider in the MG-era to win Tour de France twice, after 9 different winners in the previous nine years. But the reigning champion won't try to defend his crown and win the race by a third time, as he focused this year in winning Vuelta a España for the second time in his career.
So we'll only have two former winner in the starting line, with only one being having a realistic chance of equaling Andy. One is Andy's brother, Frank, who is riding his final Tour before retiring at the end of the season. The other is 2011 winner, and last year's third Simon Spilak, but we'll talk about him later
The GC fight
We'll start with the runner-up in the last two years, and the main favourite for the win this year; Rein Taaramäe. The Estonian joined Wiesenhof in the transfers season and has developed into the best stage racer/climber in the world, as he shown during this season. He won GP Liechenstein in his first race of the season and completely dominated Tour de Suisse, taking 3 stage wins, the GC and the Points jersey. As we have already said, he finished second in 2015 and 2016, and has another top10 result in 2014. He has won 3 stages during his 5 participations in the race and has wear the Yellow Jersey in 2 stages, both in 2015 after winning the prologue. His team support isn't the best, but should be good enough with Mai and Wohrer as prime domestiques.
Simon Spilak finished third last year and is the only former race winner to have an actual shot at winning the race again this year. In order to beat Taaramae he'll need to gain time in the hilly stages to overcome the deficit in the timetrials. Spilak has focused his season on hilly races outside of TDF, so he the only mountain he rode was GP Liechtenstein in April, where was finished fifth. Apart from that, he was second in LBL and third in Grand-Duche. He has finished four times in TDF's podium, being 1st in 2011 and 3rd in 2010, 2014 and 2016, and he has only finished outside of the podium in 2012. He has also won 4 stages in the race and has wear the Yellow Jersey for 11 days. Festina has brought a strong support cast with Novak and Vasyliv, while the other riders in his team can be good domestiques in the hills.
Last year's Vuelta a España winner, Robert Gesink returns to Le Grand Boucle six years after his one and only participation in the race. It's quite difficult that he'll be able to win the race, but he's able to put some time on Taaramae and Phinney in the two first hilly stages and get the lead after the TT, anything can happen then in the mountains as he proved against Pluchkin in last year's Vuelta. In his only previous participation in 2011 he could only finish 10th, so there's defenitely a lot of margin to improve for him. Gesink has only ridden one race so far this season; GP Liechtenstein, where he finished fourth. To support him, eBuddy has brought here probably the best mountain team in the race, with Brambilla, Aru, Majka, Herrada and Van der Velde. Some of these riders could feature in third week breakaways if Gesink isn't in the lead.
It's hard to imagine a TDF route in the last years that could be more fitting for Taylor Phinney than this one. Really few mountain finishes, with only 4, several mountain stages ending after a descent, so he could use his superior sprint skils to take stage wins in those situation and almost 70 kms of TT. The American still has room to improve in the coming years, but his only GT win looks too far away, in 2013 Giro, and he's yet to finish in TDF podium, having had three top7 shows since 2011. He hasn't raced too much so far this season, but always being brillant, winning Chrono des Herbiers and finishing second in Tirreno with a stage win. With his in Herbiers, he tied Tom Boonen's record of 66 MG career wins, and it's quite likely that he'll take a stage win during the race to become the stand-alone all-time MG wins leader. Talking about wins, he has done that five times in the race, and has wear the Yellow Jersey for 10 days, only one less than Cancellara, the rider with the most days in Yellow without having won the race. Last year he also won the Green Jersey, something that he could repeat this year. And he has a very competent team in the mountains to support him, with Bonnin and Brown being his key domestiques.
Andrei Amador is only here as his team was granted a wildcard by ASO, but being a former podium finisher of the race, he is another contender for the podium. The Costa Rican comes from finishing fourth and taking a stage win in Tour de Suisse, also as a wildcard, but in PCT races he has been dominant, destroying everyone in Vancouver, and being only beaten by the surprising Slagter in California. In his previous participations in the race, he has finished other three times in the Top7 and have won two stages. Thanks to not having to use any real RD's in this race, UBS has been able to bring their full mountain squad here to support Amador, and only eBuddy's team can compete with them in mountain depth here, as they have brought Schelling, Saggiorato, Kung, Ivars, Schir and Reichenbach
Justo Tenorio closes the win/podium contenders list. His team is facing an almost certain relegation, and probably the only thing that can save Iberia is a stellar performance from 2013 Vuelta a España winner. His season has been underwhelming so far, with his 6th place in California being his best result of the year, as his other result were a 7th in GP Liechtenstein and 10th in Tirreno. He has only ridden here twice, in 2013 and 2014. In 2013 he was fifth, coming after winning his only GT win in La Vuelta, while in 2014 he finished outside of top10, although he took a stage win in the third week. Faiers is his main domestique, while being also a top20 contender, although Izagirre can be a all-terrains domestique.
All these teams had one thing in common; a full-focus on the GC, not bringing any sprinter except UBS, but as it's a wildcard team, they aren't restricted by RD's and neither have the pressure to actually score points
But while the Top6 looks very clear, the rest of the top10 needs to be filled, and the rider that will most likely be there is the reigning champion of Criterium du Dauphine Libere, Thomas Dekker, The Dutchmen has a love/hate story with this race, having been one of the most succesfull riders in its history, with 7 stage wins (tied for 3rd most) and 10 days in Yellow, a 2nd place in 2011 and 4 further top10 finishes, but also crashed out of the lead in 2009 (click here to see the dramatic moment). Dekker comes here in form, as he showed in Dauphine, where he won his first PT stage race in more than 5 years!
Rasmus Guldhammer will like the hilly stages, as it should suit him better than his rivals for the lower top10 places. The Danish rider barely has a story in the race, as he has a lonely top20 finish in 2013. This year he has been 9th in Tirreno and 11th in Liechtenstein, and was 17th in Vuelta while working for Galta.
Tim Wellens leads Spotify with the hope of repeating his eighth place from last year, a race where he also took a stage win in the third week. The Belgian is another rider in-form, as he got his best result of the season in Suisse, as he finished sixth, while in other stage races so far he hadn't been even in the top10, like in Tirreno or California
Adam Yates should be a level below the last riders mentioned, but his tendency to overperform this season might allow him to go higher than what he "should". He's also the main favourite for the U25 classification. Between his results this season, there's a podium in California, a 6th in Tirreno and a 9th in Liechtenstein.
Vincenzo Nibali will take part in Tour de France for the first time in his career! He's in a team full of young superstars, so this might his last chance of leading a team in a GT while aiming for a top10 finish.
Andy Schleck isn't here to defend his title, so Vesuvio will have to trust Nico Keinath to somehow suceed the Luxemborgian in the palmares. But more realistic is the goal of ending in the top10
Jack Haig is a rising star that will be looking to fight for the White Jersey in his first TDF as a maxed rider. He comes from winning a stage in Vuelta a España plus a very disappointing performance in Dauphine
And the last rider who have a shot at a top10 place is Jan Hirt, who will lead Moser GC squad here, and looking at the season he's having so far, coming from a fourth place plus a stage win in Dauphine, and the season of Moser in general, we should expect him finishing in the top10 without doubt
An honorable mention for the brave Michel Koch, who for the second year in-a-row will have the responsability of winning the race, despite being weaker than the second best domestique of Spilak, because his manager don't know how to sign riders for that goal
Rider
MON
HIL
TT
RES
REC
ACC
Taaramäe
85
78
81
80
79
76
Spilak
85
82
77
81
78
74
Gesink
83
81
80
80
80
68
Phinney
83
77
83
74
76
75
Amador
84
75
78
74
79
72
Tenorio
84
76
80
76
79
66
Dekker
81
75
78
82
80
71
Yates
79
76
71
80
76
76
Guldhammer
81
77
71
75
74
76
Wellens
81
75
72
80
76
68
Haig
78
74
77
75
78
73
Keinath
79
76
75
76
76
70
Hirt
79
72
71
77
77
75
Nibali
81
76
76
76
74
58
Faiers
78
71
75
75
78
73
Kangert
75
77
77
75
75
72
Schelling
79
75
71
76
73
70
Formolo
78
76
69
76
74
71
Pinot
80
74
65
79
75
69
Nerz
80
72
73
72
74
68
The Sprinters
Clearly not the strongest of the sprints field we'll see in this race, although it was expected with probably only 2 completely flat stages plus a few that can suit more the type of sprinters that normally don't win mass sprints.
Ben Swift is the best sprinter in the world and returns to TDF to try to take at least 3 stages wins by the third year in a row. He has a decent train with Sbaragli, Bauhaus and Van der Sanden. It was a big gamble to send him here, but seeing how strong he has been this season, even winning a hilly stage in Paris-Nice, the type of sprint stages that will be in the race shouldn't be a threat for him.
Van Stayen and Demare are two quite similar riders. The Belgian is the second fastest sprinter in the race, which only adds to his climbing abilities, which will allow him to perform in the not-too hard hilly stages. Dakteris and Dzamastagic are here to build a proper train for the sprints. While the French champion isn't as fast as Van Stayen, with this field he can still perform good enough in the flatter stages and be a major threat in the same type of stages as the Belgian. The Frenchman doesn't have anything like a train, so he'll have to jump on other's trains, with the risk that it involves.
Vanderbiest and Boeckmans are the biggest hopes for their teams in this race. Obviously both came with the goal of a stage win, something that the former did 5 years ago. The Frenchman only has Polivoda to lead him out, while Boeckmans has probably the best support in the flat, with all his team-mates having 71+ in flat, something that can be helpful if there's an stage with heavy winds.
There are other sprinters like Keukeleire, Reinhardt, Porsev or Coutinho that shouldn't be fighting in normal circustances for great results in the sprints, but given this field will get in the fight for the sprints.
Rider
SPR
ACC
HIL
FLA
Swift
84
82
68
74
Van Stayen
83
78
79
76
Vanderbiest
82
77
64
74
Boeckmans
81
83
68
73
Demare
80
81
79
73
Keukeleire
80
79
70
72
Reinhardt
79
84
67
71
Coutinho
79
80
65
72
Porsev
79
80
66
74
Wippert
78
82
67
70
Van der Sanden
78
79
65
73
Fonseca
78
77
61
74
Kragh Andersen
78
75
64
75
The Timetrialists
There are two time-trials in the race, but with the first one being a hilly one, and the other being placed in the penultimate stage, there aren't any top time-trialist outside of the GC riders.
Taylor Phinney as the obvious favourite for both stage wins as the reigning ITT World Champion. Taaramäe, Gesink and Tenorio are the only riders that in a great day might have a little chance to fight with Phinney for those stage wins, while Spilak, despite being good against the clock, will see some time losses in this discipline. RBC has also brought here Cataford, thinking on getting some extra points in the time-trials
Rider
TT
HIL
RES
REC
Phinney
83
77
74
76
Taaramäe
81
78
80
79
Gesink
80
81
80
80
Tenorio
80
76
76
79
Spilak
77
82
81
78
Dekker
78
75
82
80
Amador
78
75
74
79
Kangert
77
77
75
75
Cataford
79
70
75
73
Haig
77
74
75
78
Izagirre
77
79
72
69
Porte
77
71
75
74
Ivars
77
69
74
74
Hussein
77
64
69
71
Golovash
78
60
69
66
The Puncheurs
There are 6 hilly-rated stages in the race, but that hasn't made several top puncheurs to be present in the race, although the one who has been the best so far this season, Peter Sagan is here with the clear goal of getting a stage win. While Spilak and Gesink will be looking to gain some time on those hilly stages against the other GC riders, the only other pure puncheur in the startlist is Lutsenko. As Sagan he has had a great season so far, and with two hilly stages in the first three days, he could get the Yellow Jersey. Other not-pure puncheurs are Demare and Van Stayen, who will be looking to stages 3, 7 and 11 with candlelights in their eyes. There are other puncheur who should feature in those stages, or have a chance in breakaways, like Pichon, Bystrom or Bilbao as neither of them have a strong GC leader who will fight for a top5 place
The time has come! I can't wait to get this started.
It's an incredibly weak sprinter field for a TdF, regardless of the route. Demare is already in the Top 5 sprinters here even without a single hill involved, and a Top 5 puncheur without sprinting.
Not bringing a train was a no-brainer still with the way PCM works, and this startlist should mean he gets priority treatment for surfing the wheels, a position he's best suited to anyway.
The first week just screams Demare's name (besides MvS of course), and I hope this means enough opportunities for his first Tour stage win and maybe even a TT in yellow or at least a stint in green.
The hilly stages look tailormade for him (we don't talk about Sagan), and if he can be consistent, he might even have a shot at standing in front of the Arc de Triomphe in green?
For the tough stuff, we brought Nerz who comes from a convincing Dauphine. If he brings the same level to this race, he could even crack the Top 10 here as well looking at the relative lack of climber depth, but a Top 15 should be doable for sure.
Nikias Arndt knows how to surprise in this race, but I expect him to be the super-domestique for Nerz in the mountains and, together with Felline, support Demare in the hillier stages (they could even set up a good 71-74 sprint train there if PCM did trains in hilly rated sprints). Maybe he gets a shot at stage or KoM success somewhere though.
Chevrier, Heider, Dunne and Bol are great support for anything uphill and should be around for most of the tougher stages.
For the overall glory, I obviously prefer to see teams way above us in the rankings do well. It's vital that Taaramae doesn't completely dominate and that Gesink and Phinney don't punch way above their weight, even though they would all deserve it. Go Spilak!
Edited by cio93 on 02-02-2018 18:49
With this startlist a top 10 for Wellens looks like in reach if we could avoid crashes and such which would mean top 10 in all 3 GTs for us.
He have good support with Lövkvist and Cort Nielsen who also them self could fight for top 10.
We lack a great sprinter here, depending on how the AI decides its either Kragh Andersen if he even would attend the sprints but my plan was that Reimer would be our sprinter, the first week could suit him well on those hilly stages sprinting behind MvS and Demare.
Will Rein make it? Think so yes.
@bbl thanks for the support, hope he can get some tv-time
This should be a great fight between Spilak and Taaramae, hard to predict a winner. With the way Rein was riding in Suisse, he may be unstoppable though. I think the battle for the third spot on the podium is wide open though. Amador should have a decent shot at it but it will be super hard. Hoping our mountains depth pays off because we sent pretty much everybody here. Nice to see a weak sprint field too, Reinhardt should actually participate!
Surely a top5 is possible for Koch after how he did in Suisse? Hope for a great race and some nice MVS and Demare battles, but most of all can't wait for the reports Aquarius, great preview already!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Still too frustrated to write a longer comment. Haig will hopefully avoid whatever happened to him in Dauphine. Won't hope for anything but breakaway attempts though. That's the least we should do in every single stage!
Thanks for the great preview. I was crying when reading the Haig part though
Has to be time for Taaramae to win a Grand Tour, given how he has ridden so far this season. Spilak is capable of getting into the race lead early though, and if he can do that and keep it up, then many ranking points can await. So fitting that Sagan is here to try to stop him.
Interesting to see how Gesink does, after such a great Vuelta last year. Surprised not to see Phinney in the Dauphine, but this explains it. Good to see him going after a GT.
Could be a quiet race for us. Keinath needs a great race for a Top 10, Top 15 may be a more reasonable target - but he should be well in breakaway range for the final mountain stages.
Would be nice if Wippert could sprint to some Top 10s. Didn't bring Van der Lijke, so to encourage Keinath to go for it. Kirsch and Schleck here to complete all GTs of the season. One last time for Frank - hopefully he gets in a breakaway at least, while Kirsch will aim to achieve finishing in the Top 35 in all of them. Hopefully closer to Giro finish than Vuelta, but route may make that harder.
An honorable mention for the brave pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/evo.png Michel Koch, who for the second year in-a-row will have the responsability of winning the race, despite being weaker than the second best domestique of Spilak, because his manager don't know how to sign riders for that goal
Thanks for this little gem!
Of course you're wrong because Koch is always capable of getting a top ten result - even in the strongest startlists possible. A bit more luck and the victory could be possible
Jandal seems to support him as well so there is absolutely no chance that he disappoints.
In the mountains Taaramae is the big favourite and i absolutely hope he can dominate this tour as he should. Phinney and Spilak as the only real contenders.
Aside of Koch ofc - time to go 4/4 goals
I like the look of the sprinter list for Van Stayen. Demare being there had to be expected for the very same reasons that i picked this GT for VS (and it's cool that they didnt meet more often throughout the season). Swift is the only top sprinter here which is great to see. I must say that Boekman also looks quite dangerous for the flat stages. Personally, i think the route is perfect for a MvS green jersey. With the number of hilly stages, Swift should be no match for MvS/Demare so I mainly have to fear Demare or climbers for that. Of course, i'd also like a trip in yellow as the first three stages look perfect for that.
Most of my team is picked with the focus on the first week. Dzamastagic + Dakteris are a good leadout that should be similar strong to Aegon's one (i have a FL advantage and Aegon has a SP advantage which should cancel each other out). I've also got Nooytens and Stoltz with high flat stats (75/80) to help Van Stayen on the flat parts. Bekmanis as the main domestique on the hills. We'll rely on Puma and Aegon to control the breaks on later sprint finishes (S10, S15?, S21) as some of my guys might have missed the time limit by then.
knockout wrote:
Demare being there had to be expected for the very same reasons that i picked this GT for VS (and it's cool that they didnt meet more often throughout the season).
Well it's not like Demare did anything in the races without MvS.
And this will already be the last time they meet this season as well, so may it be a great battle.
I have updated the second post with some interesting stats about stage wins, days in yellow. And also the likely posting schedule. I have left 24 hours before the mountain stages in order to build suspense, but i can still change it if you don't agree with me
Loving the preview by the quality and the looks of it for my team. The Giro has been abysmal and our team at the vuelta basically nonexistant. For our survival, it is pivotal that we finally score some decent points in a big race. Boekmans among Top 5 sprinters is a more than welcome surprise for that, and fingers crossed for Pichon and Vanendert to bring in some points. At least the latter has been active in Dauphine recently, whereas Pichon has been so far mostly a letdown. Looking very much forward to the race as a whole. Taaramae looks unbeatable to me, but Spilak with his versatility may be the ideal rider to push him to the limit over three weeks. Really hope that my team doesn't let me down as it has in the Giro.
Posting schedule _O_
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
That's another interesting GT start list. Must say I like them a lot this year with the top guys not able to ride two of them.
As you point out in the preview, the hilly stuff should be Guldhammer's chance at a place well inside the top 10. Seeing how he climbed in the Vuelta though, I definitely fear for the mountains. However, no Galta here should give him carte blanche. Haven't brought a sprinter as well, basically all our eggs are in Guldhammer's basket.
A top 10 definitely looks doable, but definitely not a given. Hoping he rides the hills in an aggressive way and actually get paid for his hill/sprint combination there for a GC rider.
After Taaramäe's brillliances in June, it's easy to name him as the biggest favourite. Though, all those hills make me think Spilak will be the man to beat. If he gets to that yellow jersey early, it won't be easy for the Estonian to wrestle it of, after all Spilak is also a 85 climber looking to the mountains as well
I also think Sagan and Lutsenko have the potential to play in favour of Spilak, if they force some very demanding hilly stages. Maybe they'll be given the opportunity to do so as well, especially Sagan, considering he has no great GC rider in his team, at least on paper (Hirt could of course do well).
Thank you for a great preview, Aquarius97! Really looking forward to the reports, especially to those hilly and mountain stages for obvious reasons!
This is the race I've been looking forward to this season, after I decided to train Rein this was the race I targetted. In Norway for years this was the only race on TV (Thank Thor Hushovd...) and I was sitting inside watching TDF instead of being out in the sun (then again, when is there any sun in Norway?). Being able to fight for the win here will be awesome!
Now, Spilak, Phinney and Gesink could all beat Taaramae, but if he can win this he would've won all his races this season, that would be awesome. Hopefully he wont fall to far behind before the mountains (hopefully the TT will help) and then continue the awesome results from earlier in the season. A bit concerned about my team here, but it will hopefully be enough.
knockout wrote:
Demare being there had to be expected for the very same reasons that i picked this GT for VS (and it's cool that they didnt meet more often throughout the season).
Well it's not like Demare did anything in the races without MvS.
And this will already be the last time they meet this season as well, so may it be a great battle.
Yeah. And MvS didnt do that well either. They better both do very well here
Our weakest GT. Hopefully that doesn't mean a quiet race for us. I think we have a very competent breakaway-oriented squad. If the boys incorporate that strategy it shouldn't be too hard achieving a handful of noticeable results.
As for the winner I'm going with Taarame as well, although it would be nice to see Spilak take the win here.
Brilliant preview Aquarius! Incredible the amount of effort you put into this. I don't even know what I'm going to do past tuesday, but I can sleep safely in the certainty of when to expect a stage report. Chapeau, my friend!
Surprisingly weak hilly lineup. I would have hoped for something better to really Shake things up. With riders such as Demare and Van Stayen here I suspect we will see some relatively Big groups much in favor of Taaramae and Phinney.
Spilak will probably fuck up, but really should be able to finish 2nd. I really doubt we can fight Taaramae as he is also stronger in the TTs. We need the Hills to work well to put Phinney out of contention quickly.
Amador could be a dangerous rider here, and he will definately take a huge amount of points from some PT teams. Hopefully not us. Sagan and Lutsenko could be realistic for top 10-15 here looking at how the Vuelta went last season.
A.Schleck
Taaramae
Spilak
Pluchkin
Amador
Madrazo
Cunego
Dekker
Popovych
Fothen
Devolder
Gadret
Vinokourov
Leipheimer
