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Giro di Lombardia Discussion
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| matt17br |
Posted on 19-11-2015 17:26
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 Giro di Lombardia
La classica delle foglie morte - literally the classic of the falling leaves - is the last Monument of the season and last event of the World Tour calendar. If there still are some doubts about the PT rankings top 3, this race is bound to take them all away! The race has been on the calendar since the first Man-Game season, in 2007, but even then, only 5 riders had the honor of winning it. In fact, the record holder  Cunego, also present today, incredibly enough won it 3 times and also comes here as the defending champion, while  Frank Schleck did it in 2011 and 2013: could this be his 3rd?
The route is the same as last year’s tougher-than-ever one. First up is the Valico di Valcava, 11.2kms at 8%, followed by the Colle Brianza, 1.6km at 8.3%. Next up is the Colma di Sormano, 9km at 8.3%, but with peaks of over 18% when the riders will face the last part, called Muro di Sormano. The final 3 climbs are the epic Madonna del Ghisallo, 10km at 5.2%, but peaking at 11% and featuring constant tough slopes in the first part of the ascent, the Villa Vergano, 4km, 5.5% and the San Fermo della Battaglia, 2km at 8.3%. This makes it a route for the punchers capable of handling well the longer climbs, as we have seen in the past editions, however looking at some of the climbers present this year you would have to be reluctant about it!
| Punchers | HIL | MO | RE | ST | AC | DH |  Edvald Boasson Hagen | 85 | 70 | 74 | 81 | 79 | 66 |  Jan Bakelants | 84 | 75 | 78 | 81 | 78 | 69 |  Yuri Trofimov | 83 | 78 | 78 | 80 | 76 | 71 |  Francesco Ginanni | 83 | 70 | 78 | 78 | 74 | 66 |  Simone Ponzi | 82 | 73 | 72 | 77 | 80 | 74 |  Tejay Van Garderen | 82 | 72 | 75 | 78 | 79 | 75 | | Ben Gastauer | 82 | 71 | 70 | 78 | 76 | 61 |  Toms Skujins | 82 | 70 | 77 | 80 | 76 | 66 |  Chris Froome | 82 | 70 | 73 | 77 | 75 | 71 | | Damiano Cunego | 81 | 82 | 81 | 77 | 77 | 72 |  Robert Gesink | 81 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 68 | 66 |  Aleksandar Flügel | 81 | 72 | 67 | 79 | 74 | 80 |  Riccardo Ricco | 80 | 82 | 81 | 80 | 73 | 68 | | Nicolas Roche | 80 | 78 | 75 | 78 | 72 | 69 | | Frank Schleck | 80 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 69 |
Since 2011, Trofimov is constantly getting better and better results here, until he’s been 4th last year. This time around he should be considered the favourite, following his consistent performances in classics and stage races. Moreover, he’s probably the rider with the right skills for this monument: he can climb among the best on his day besides being one of the strongest punchers.
Cunego has won the race 3 times and well, he knows what to do perfectly. Last year he dominantly won it with over 2 minutes over anyone else, demonstrating you clearly need to resist the mountains if you want to have your name in the winners’ book.
Bakelants hasn’t scored nearly as well as him, but this could be his year after 2 bitter-sweet podiums in 2012 and 2013. Boasson Hagen also comes here as a favourite, although after a 2nd place and a 4th riding within the old route, he proved he struggles a bit more with the addition of some more hills to last year’s route.
Ponzi, in short, has dominated the Ardennes, there’s no much more to say. Winning all of them the same year hardly happens, and on top of that, the rest of his year has been fabulous as well. The Italian though showed that he prefers tackling shorter hills over longer climbs, which may be his biggest disadvantage in such an altitude-heavy race.
Ricco has once podiumed here, while in his biggest chance to do even better than that, last year, he sadly fell in the flat section leading to the top of Madonna del Ghisallo. He had a great year so far, coming close to an unexpected Giro win, but had to put that dream down.
Gesink doesn’t look like he has a great feeling with the classic of the falling leaves however, because of his skills that are particularly suited to this kind of route, he shouldn’t be discounted either.
Frank Schleck won this race twice, but he clearly had to face the coming of age and everything that goes with it. He hasn’t shone this year at all, could he redeem himself in his last race? Roche has had, more or less, the same year as the older brother of this year’s Giro winner, and can count on his same skills. On a good day, he could surprise as well, but you can’t say he has had a great experience with this classic so far…
Other possible surprises include Ginanni, Van Garderen, Gastauer, Skujins, Froome, Flügel and the ever over-performing  Sagan.
| Climbers | MO | HIL | RE | ST | AC | DH | | Angel Madrazo | 85 | 76 | 80 | 81 | 72 | 69 | | Andy Schleck | 85 | 75 | 82 | 77 | 79 | 64 | | Stefan Denifl | 84 | 76 | 71 | 75 | 65 | 64 | | Daniel Martin | 82 | 77 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 63 |  Vincenzo Nibali | 82 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 59 | 80 |  Thomas Dekker | 82 | 76 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 68 |  Domenico Pozzovivo | 80 | 76 | 80 | 75 | 74 | 70 |
Among the climbers present here, we could name Madrazo and especially Andy Schleck as the strongest ones. GP Liechtenstein winner showed a great tactic sense for 1-day races, along with an enviable consistency. The Spaniard on the other hand has been pretty good at Vuelta a Colombia lately, although he hasn’t faced him directly. Note that the two of them haven’t had the chance to face themselves in this kind of profile, and we are not even sure that they will be leaders of their respective teams.
Denifl is also a really valid climber on his day and this is the last chance he has got to prove his worth. Volkswagen is really close to relegation at the moment, but a miracle performance by the Austrian could mean they still have an opportunity to avoid it.
Make sure you don’t forget about the likes of Martin, Nibali, Dekker and last year’s runner up Pozzovivo!
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 19-11-2015 17:32
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Top 10 to finish the awful season? Doubt it, but one can pray.
Ponzi to complete the ridiculousness of his season and do the Ardennes-Lombardia quadruple... it's just the only fitting way to end the season.
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Posted on 22-11-2024 02:31
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 19-11-2015 17:53
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Fancy Pozzovivo's chances rather than Bobridge's, so I'm at least pleased he's mentioned in the preview 
Can't really expect a big result anyway, so any aggressive racing would be fine enough.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-11-2015 18:00
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Come on, Bobby! We can't let those Aussie newbies finish in front of us.
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| roturn |
Posted on 19-11-2015 18:09
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2nd hill classic on the last day for me. And 2nd time I don`t get a mention.
Just shows how crap my team is on this terrain. 
Boom, Aru and possibly for the first time ever and the last time as well Keizer here at Lombardia. First two could possible show themselves in a mid stage attack. Also Villella here. So 2 Italian puncheur options. |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 19-11-2015 18:47
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For Ponzi to win here would be a fitting end. I'm not sure he will though. My best race was one of Schleck's wins, when he got away with Caruso who took 2nd. I feel that's my best chance of success - a late break. But, you never know what might happen with this game!
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| SotD |
Posted on 19-11-2015 18:49
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Only goal is to keep the overall 2nd place. If Ricco can do well, that's good.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 19-11-2015 19:25
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We are only here to get experience and some sunburn  |
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| Crommy |
Posted on 19-11-2015 20:11
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Come on Jan, finish off the season with a win, you're overdue one
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 19-11-2015 21:33
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The only way I see Trofimov winning is with a downhill attack, Cunego would be a perfect companion!
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| Roman |
Posted on 19-11-2015 22:26
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Come on Sagan!
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| ember |
Posted on 19-11-2015 23:38
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Brilliant preview, matt17br!
Fancying Ponzi to do what he does best this season, win a monument and classic in style. Would be cool to see him claim another one as well, as I suspect a Ardennes triple + Lombardia in the same season will be an achievement no one will ever do after him.
Have a sponsor goal saying top 3 here. Definitely a difficult seeing how Boasson Hagen has struggled in the classics this season, but his great performance on the hilly stage in Tasmania certainly gives hope.
Looking forward to the race! |
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 20-11-2015 00:14
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Thanks for the preview Matt, probably fair we don't get a mention but this season's proved anything can happen. Good luck to all, see you when the season's over.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 20-11-2015 05:30
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Win or bust
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 20-11-2015 07:05
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Having someone in the top50 would be a miracle for Metinvest.
I am rooting for Ponzi here, but not for Good Energy actually jumping ahead of us in the rankings. Good luck to all though and thanks matt! 
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-11-2015 07:43
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2011-2013-2015: Only Frank Schleck can win here! Would really love to that Gastauer allows him to make an early move at midstage. Would really end his fantastic career as next year will be tough to get results on PT level.
So either hope for PCM15 breakaway bug, which is unlikely or trade him to PCT, SN (which also won`t happen I guess).
So last chance for this MG legend. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 20-11-2015 08:02
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Frank Schleck should still be a pretty good rider next year though. Not a top rider of course, but one that could easily do some nice things:
| FL | MO | HI | TT | END | RES | REC | COB | SPR | ACC | FIG | DH | PRL | | 66 | 74 | 77 | 64 | 72 | 71 | 66 | 50 | 55 | 69 | 64 | 66 | 64 |
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-11-2015 08:22
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Not on PT level though seeing that even some 80 riders struggle already.
It would have been a perfect PCM14 breakaway rider. But I think he will be pure helper with some top20`s only. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 20-11-2015 09:08
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roturn wrote:
Not on PT level though seeing that even some 80 riders struggle already.
It would have been a perfect PCM14 breakaway rider. But I think he will be pure helper with some top20`s only.
PT teams need top 20 helpers too
I have had Koretzky and Pichon this season. Schleck will be similar to that next season.
Anyway, I don't think we really disagree. Clearly he won't be a PT leader next season.
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-11-2015 09:17
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Exactly. As helper, he has great value in PT.
I just meant his leadership chances and improving his long palmares, which now comes to an end with Lombardia. |
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